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Economic Trends and The Oil and Gas Industry September 15, 2015 Carlsbad, New Mexico Jim Peach Department of Economics and International Business and Arrowhead Center New Mexico State University [email protected] The US economy: Not bad, but not booming • Since 2009 Q3 (Beginning of recovery) – GDP increased in 22 quarters – GDP fell in 2 quarters (2011 Q1) and 2014 Q1) • Average rate of growth since 2009 q3= 2.2 percent • Average 1957 to 2007 = 3.4 percent • 59 consecutive months of employment gains “Economy not bad but not booming” Warren Buffet CNBC: September 8, 2015 Photo public domain from Wikipedia commons US GDP Jobs Not Bad! 2015 is NADA forecast Housing Scary Stuff? “The fundamentals of the economy are sound.” Mike Jackson, CEO, Autonation CNBC Sept 2, 2015 Photo from autonation website What will Janet (and friends) do? Public domain photos Wikipedia commons What will Janet (and friends) do? Some Global Issues World population = 7.1 b World GDP = $74 T Source: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/graphics/ref_maps/political/pdf/world.pdf China Matters Population = 1. 4 billion GDP = $10.4 Trillion Source: Map CIA World Factbook; Data World Bank Greece matters but Turkey is more important Greece population 11.0 million GDP $240 b Turkey population 75.0 million GDP $800 b Source: CIA World Factbook New Mexico: Weak recovery with few bright spots Photo by Jim Peach Sept 2014 NM Rank = 49 Weak Recovery in New Mexico Not pretty in most sectors Unemployment Rate Source: NM Department of Workforce Solutions, Monthly Labor Review Unemployment Rate Source: NM Department of Workforce Solutions, Monthly Labor Review Population: first decrease in 50 years New Mexico Poverty Rank = 1 Per Capita Income: NM and its neighbors NM Rank = 45 US Crude Oil EIA estimates released Friday Sept 11, 2015 June 15 9,296 June 14 8,676 Cushing inventories? US Crude Oil EIA estimates released Friday Sept 11, 2015 June 15 9,296 April 15 9,612 NM Crude Oil EIA estimates released Friday Sept 11, 2015 Percent Change June 2014 to June 2015 +27.8% 2014 total = 123.6 mmb 338 bpd Thank you!