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Curso Sapientia Todd Marshall ANSWER KEY COLOR CODES: Blue – right answer Red – wrong answer Yellow – explanation or questionable words/terms Green – text reference for inference questions Embracing China's "New Normal" Why the Economy Is Still on Track By Hu Angang / Foreign Affairs, May/June, 2015 It is clear by now that China’s economy is set to slow in the years to come, although economists disagree about how much and for how long. Last year, the country’s GDP growth rate fell to 7.4 percent, the lowest in almost a quarter century, and many expect that figure to drop further in 2015. Plenty of countries struggle to grow at even this pace, but most don’t have to create hundreds of millions of jobs over the next decade, as China will. So understandably, some experts are skeptical about the country’s prospects. They argue that its production-fueled growth model is no longer tenable and warn, as the economist Paul Krugman did in 2013, that the country is “about to hit its Great Wall.” According to this view, the question is not whether the Chinese economy will crash but when. Such thinking is misguided. China is not nearing the edge of a cliff; it is entering a new stage of development. Chinese President Xi Jinping has called this next phase of growth the “new normal,” a term that Mohamed El-Erian, the former CEO of the global investment firm PIMCO, famously used to describe the West’s painful economic recovery following the 2008 financial crisis. But Xi used the phrase to describe something different: a crucial rebalancing, one in which the country diversifies its economy, embraces a more sustainable level of growth, and distributes the benefits more evenly. The new normal is in its early stages now, but if Beijing manages to sustain it, China’s citizens can count on continued growth and material improvements in their quality of life. The rest of the world, meanwhile, can expect China to become further integrated into the global economy. The Chinese century is not at the beginning of the end; it is at the end of the beginning. 1. Determine if the following statements are true or false. a. China’s pick-up in GDP plunged by a walloping 7.4% over the last quarter and is forecasted to plummet even further this year alone. - F b. Many pundits defend that China’s overwhelming dependence on fossil fuels for economic growth depicts a fragile and dubitable picture for the near future. - F c. Specialists in global economic affairs purport that China’s floundering economy has come upon a massive barrier that is expected to extend for decades. - F d. Forecasts indicate that China, in order to revert its current economic downswing, must provide a substantial stimulus to its job market over the next 10 years. – F Curso Sapientia Todd Marshall (“GDP growth recession” x “economic downswing”, these is not direct synonyms. The economy can still be growing even if the GDP growth is decreasing) It is clear by now that China’s economy is set to slow in the years to come, although economists disagree about how much and for how long. (c) Last year, the country’s GDP growth rate fell to 7.4 percent, the lowest in almost a quarter century, and many expect that figure to drop further in 2015. (a) Plenty of countries struggle to grow at even this pace, but most don’t have to create hundreds of millions of jobs over the next decade, as China will. (d) So understandably, some experts are skeptical about the country’s prospects. They argue that its production-fueled growth model is no longer tenable (b) and warn, as the economist Paul Krugman did in 2013, that the country is “about to hit its Great Wall.” According to this view, the question is not whether the Chinese economy will crash but when. 2. Determine if the following statements are true or false. a. According to pundits on economic issues, China is on the brink of economic disaster goaded on by faltering development. – F b. According to the text, China is in its initial phases of economic growth, which may well bring about solid enhancements in the lives of Chinese citizens. – T (questionable, because of the references to “last year” in the first paragraph” x “new model”) c. According to the text, an inevitable and acute economic crisis is looming in China today.- F d. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s view of China’s “new normal” depends heavily on economic diversity and sustainable growth. - T According to this view, the question is not whether the Chinese economy will crash but when. Such thinking is misguided. (c) China is not nearing the edge of a cliff; it is entering a new stage of development. (a) Chinese President Xi Jinping has called this next phase of growth the “new normal,” a term that Mohamed El-Erian, the former CEO of the global investment firm PIMCO, famously used to describe the West’s painful economic recovery following the 2008 financial crisis. But Xi used the phrase to describe something different: a crucial rebalancing, one in which the country diversifies its economy, embraces a more sustainable level of growth, and distributes the benefits more evenly. (d) The new normal is in its early stages now, but if Beijing manages to sustain it, China’s citizens can count on continued growth and material improvements in their quality of life. (b) The rest of the world, meanwhile, can expect China to become further integrated into the global economy. The Chinese century is not at the beginning of the end; it is at the end of the beginning.