Download Environmental challenges in a changing world

Environmental challenges
in a changing world..
Claudia Capitani
My background….
Wolf ecology (in a human dominated landscape)
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Food habits
Population dynamics
Spatial distribution
Human conflicts
Wolf diet in an agricultural landscape of north-eastern Turkey. Capitani et al.
Mammalia in press
Agri-Environmental Indicators:
Landscape-State and Diversity.
The EU societal awareness of landscape indicator: a
review of its meaning, utility and performance
across different scales. Jones, P. J., Anderson, E.,
Capitani, C., et al (2015) Land Use Policy. ISSN
0264-8377 (In Press)
Biofuel policy : indirect land use changes and
GHG emissions
Global
economic
model
Land
demand
Sustainable development,
environmental awareness and capacity
building in rural Tanzania
Spatial
allocation
GHG
emissions
Currently….
Participatory socio-economic scenarios of land cover changes in
East Africa
 WWF Tanzania REDD+ pilot project
 CHIESA Climate change impacts on food security and
ecosystem services in Eastern Africa
LAND USE CHANGES AFFECT
NATURAL CAPITAL
LIVELIHOOD
MINING THE CAPACITY TO ADAPT OR MITIGATE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
UNDERSTANDING LAND USE AND COVER CHANGES
8
7
6
5
4
BIOPHYSICAL
FACTORS
SOCIOECONOMIC
FACTORS
3
2
1
0
2000
2010
2025
2050
UNDERSTANDING LAND USE AND COVER CHANGES
8
SCENARIOS ANALYSIS
7
6
5
4
STAKEHOLDERS’
CONSULTATIONS &
SPATIAL ANALYSIS
3
2
1
0
2000
2010
2025
2050
FROM A STORY TO A MAP……….
GLOBAL/NATIONAL
CHALLENGES
(DEFORESTATION, CLIMATE
CHANGE, DEVELOPMENT)
SCENARIOS
GENERAL
DEFINITIONS
NATIONAL
POLICIES,
STRATEGIES AND
TRENDS
?
SCENARIO ANALYIS: INTEGRATING QUALITATIVE &
QUANTITATIVE-SPATIALLY EXPLICIT SCENARIOS
CHALLENGES
• Translate qualitative narratives into spatially explicit
outputs
• Incorporate “local” knowledge into realistic
national scenarios
• Standardisation
Stakeholders’
consultations
• Scenario
narratives
• Sectorial
trajectories
• Spatial
information
Modelling
•Spatial allocation
and supply
estimate
Scenarios
maps
• Validation
• Land use changes
• Impacts on
ecosystem
services
TASK 1 Economic sectors trends
RICH
Economy
Environment
HEALTHY
DEGRADED
POOR
Task 2 Land cover changes
PROS:
• PARTICIPATION & OWNERSHIP
• MULTI-DIMENSION APPROACH
• LOCAL INSIGHT AND
DETAILS RICHNESS
• MULTIPLE OUTPUTS
CONS:
• DEMANDING PROCESS
• Harmonization of DATA ANALYSIS &
INTERPRETATION
• Translating QUALITATIVE/SEMIQUANTITATIVE INTO SPATIALLY EXPLICIT
INFO
• Influence on STAKEHOLDERS’
OPINIONS by external or internal
dynamics?
Scenarios maps
Scenario analysis outputs
underlying drivers of
changes and their mutual
interactions
ex-ante assessment of land
use policies impacts
(Roadmap to target policy)
(ecosystem services,
livelihood)
Impacts on climate change
mitigation and adaptation
capacity
spatial planning tool for
policies interventions (eg.
REDD+)
Communities engagement
and increased awareness
(social learning)
Thank you!