Download Strategic Interventions to Population Decline

REPORT COMMISSIONED BY THE LOCAL AUTHORITY
SHARED SERVICES
AUTHOR: RACHAEL MCMILLAN1
Research Paper
STRATEGIC
INTERVENTIONS TO
POPULATION DECLINE
This report draws on McMillan, R. (2015 forthcoming). Anticipating depopulation – strategic
interventions to population decline. Masters Thesis, University of Waikato.
BSc (Resources & Environmental Planning), PGDip (Environmental Planning), Masters student
MSocSc (Demography) – Recipient of the NIDEA Research Institute Masters Scholarship and
University of Waikato FASS Masters Award.
1
McMillan, R. (2015). Strategic interventions to population decline. Commissioned report
for the Local Government Shared Services, University Of Waikato, Hamilton.
SUPERVISORS:
DR BILL COCHRANE – University of Waikato
PROF NATALIE JACKSON – Massey University
This report draws on McMillan, R. (2015 forthcoming). Anticipating depopulation –
strategic interventions to population decline. Masters Thesis, University of Waikato.
Acknowledgements
These are preliminary findings from a Masters project under the supervision of Dr Bill Cochrane and
Professor Natalie Jackson in conjunction with a Royal Society of NZ Marsden funded project: The
sub-national mechanisms of the ending of population growth, Tai timu tāngata Taihoe e? led by
Professor Natalie Jackson.
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Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY........................................................................................................11
Policy responses ............................................................................................................................................ 11
Strategies....................................................................................................................................................... 12
Attracting human capital.................................................................................................................................. 12
Attracting capital flows .................................................................................................................................... 12
Maintaining and retaining human capital ........................................................................................................ 12
Maintaining and retaining investment and infrastructure ............................................................................... 12
Countering strategies – key findings .............................................................................................................. 13
Accepting strategies – key findings ................................................................................................................ 14
Key themes for success from the literature and case studies ......................................................................... 15
Waikato scenario ........................................................................................................................................... 15
Building a comprehensive strategy for the Waikato Region ........................................................................... 16
An action plan for community change at local level ....................................................................................... 16
Is there a place for exit strategies? ................................................................................................................ 17
1.
INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................18
1.1.
Scope ................................................................................................................................................ 18
1.2.
Methodology..................................................................................................................................... 18
1.1.
Background ....................................................................................................................................... 18
1.2.
Limitations ........................................................................................................................................ 19
1.3.
Structure of the report ...................................................................................................................... 19
2.
DEPOPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS .......................................................20
2.1.
Types of depopulation ...................................................................................................................... 20
2.2.
Drivers of depopulation .................................................................................................................... 20
2.3.
Tipping points to depopulation ......................................................................................................... 21
2.4.
Consequences ................................................................................................................................... 21
3.
THE COMPLEXITY OF REGIONAL CHANGE ...............................................................22
3.1.
Spatial redistribution effect on regional areas................................................................................... 24
3
3.2.
Interconnection – symbiotic relationship between city and regions.................................................. 25
3.3.
International regional policy trends .................................................................................................. 26
Box 1: Regional change - key messages ........................................................................................................... 26
4.
COUNTRY COMPARISON WITH NEW ZEALAND – CASE STUDY SELECTION............27
4.1.
Demographics ................................................................................................................................... 27
Box 2: Country comparison - key messages ..................................................................................................... 30
4.2.
Political economy .............................................................................................................................. 31
5.
POLICY RESPONSES ................................................................................................34
5.1.
The growth paradigm battle .............................................................................................................. 34
5.2.
Policy responses ................................................................................................................................ 34
5.3.
Policy positions ................................................................................................................................. 35
5.4.
International policy responses – intervention at country level .......................................................... 37
5.5.
Community mindsets ........................................................................................................................ 38
Box 3: Policy responses - key messages ........................................................................................................... 39
6.
INTERVENTIONS ......................................................................................................40
6.1.
Economic growth and capital flows ................................................................................................... 40
6.2.
Old Economy versus New Economy................................................................................................... 41
6.3.
Policy sectors .................................................................................................................................... 42
7.
COUNTERING OR REGENERATION STRATEGIES .....................................................43
7.1.
Attracting human capital ................................................................................................................... 43
7.2.
Attracting capital flows ..................................................................................................................... 44
8.
ACCEPTING STRATEGIES .........................................................................................46
8.1.
Maintaining and retaining human capital.......................................................................................... 46
8.2.
Maintaining and retaining investment and infrastructure ................................................................. 48
Governance ...................................................................................................................................................... 48
Planning – smart shrinkage .............................................................................................................................. 49
Economic .......................................................................................................................................................... 49
9.
FINDINGS AND CHALLENGES ..................................................................................51
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9.1.
Countering strategies – key findings.................................................................................................. 51
Attracting human capital.................................................................................................................................. 51
Attracting capital flows .................................................................................................................................... 53
9.2.
Accepting strategies – key findings.................................................................................................... 56
Maintaining and retaining human capital ........................................................................................................ 56
Maintaining and retaining investment and infrastructure ............................................................................... 57
9.3.
To retire towns or not to retire – that is the question! ...................................................................... 62
Exit solutions? .................................................................................................................................................. 62
10.
KEY THEMES FOR SUCCESS ...................................................................................65
10.1. Key themes across all strategies ........................................................................................................ 65
Governance ...................................................................................................................................................... 65
Funding and expertise ...................................................................................................................................... 66
Community engagement and participation ..................................................................................................... 66
Utilisation of particular local situation ............................................................................................................. 66
Leadership ........................................................................................................................................................ 66
10.2.
Local community requirements to tackle community change ........................................................... 67
10.3.
Transferability ................................................................................................................................... 68
10.4.
Summary ........................................................................................................................................... 69
11.
THE WAIKATO REGION .............................................................................................70
11.1.
The New Zealand context .................................................................................................................. 70
11.2.
Waikato demographic and economic indicators ................................................................................ 70
11.3.
The growth agenda ........................................................................................................................... 72
11.4. The scope of change that can be achieved ........................................................................................ 73
Constraints on growth ...................................................................................................................................... 74
11.5.
Building a comprehensive strategy for the Waikato Region .............................................................. 75
11.6. Action plan for local level community change ................................................................................... 76
Summary .......................................................................................................................................................... 77
12.
CONCLUSION ...........................................................................................................78
APPENDIX 1 – COUNTRY PROFILES ...................................................................................80
1.1
Australia ............................................................................................................................................ 80
1.2
Canada .............................................................................................................................................. 80
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1.3
Germany ........................................................................................................................................... 81
1.4
Japan ................................................................................................................................................. 81
1.5
Netherlands ...................................................................................................................................... 82
1.6
UK ..................................................................................................................................................... 82
1.7
US ..................................................................................................................................................... 83
APPENDIX 2 – INDEX OF CASE STUDIES ...........................................................................84
APPENDIX 3 – SELECTED REGIONAL CROSS SECTOR CASE STUDIES..............................88
3.1
Germany – Brandenburg Region ....................................................................................................... 88
3.2
Netherlands – Sustainability of redevelopment plans ....................................................................... 89
3.3
Scotland – Northeast Scotland .......................................................................................................... 90
APPENDIX 4 – SELECTED LOCAL LEVEL CASE STUDIES ...................................................92
4.1.
Bioenergy village ............................................................................................................................... 92
4.2
Downtown revitalization ................................................................................................................... 92
4.3
Japan – Ryori Port Rehabilitation Project .......................................................................................... 93
4.4
Canada – Immigration policies .......................................................................................................... 95
APPENDIX 5 - DEFINITIONS ................................................................................................96
REFERENCES .....................................................................................................................97
ENDNOTES ...................................................................................................................... 105
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Table of Figures
Figure 1: Selected key demographic indicators at subnational level leading to natural decline ......... 21
Figure 2: Downward cycle of population shrinkage ............................................................................. 21
Figure 3: Complexity of regional change - drivers and influences ........................................................ 23
Figure 4: Concentration by globalisation and agglomeration .............................................................. 25
Figure 5: Total fertility rate for selected nations 1955-2010 ................................................................ 28
Figure 6: Old-age dependency ratio for selected countries 1955-2010 ............................................... 29
Figure 7: Rate of natural increase for selected countries 1955-2010 .................................................. 30
Figure 8: Summary of policy positions .................................................................................................. 35
Figure 9: Intervention level and policy response - selected OECD countries ....................................... 37
Figure 10: Community stages towards revitalisation ........................................................................... 38
Figure 11: Place and placemaking in the New Economy ...................................................................... 41
Figure 12: Strategy framework ............................................................................................................. 42
Figure 13: Key themes for success ........................................................................................................ 65
Figure 14: Key elements for transferability of town and individual policy strategies .......................... 68
Figure 15: Percentage change in the Estimated Resident Population of Census Area Units (CAU),
2001-2006 and 2006-2013: Waikato Region ........................................................................................ 71
Figure 16: Summary of factors for community regeneration ............................................................... 74
Figure 17: Building a comprehensive strategy ...................................................................................... 75
Figure 18: Key steps in community plan for change ............................................................................. 76
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Table of Tables
Table 1: Notes on demographic trends ................................................................................................ 20
Table 2: Drivers of depopulation .......................................................................................................... 20
Table 3: Typology of countries – government spending at central and local government levels ....... 32
Table 4: Territorial authorities and governance .................................................................................. 33
Table 5: Perspectives for applying policy responses to depopulation................................................. 36
Table 6: Strategies for attracting human capital .................................................................................. 43
Table 7: Strategies for attracting capital flows ..................................................................................... 44
Table 8: Selected economic tools ......................................................................................................... 45
Table 9: Relationship between maintaining human capital strategies and tools ................................. 47
Table 10: Strategies for maintaining and retaining investment and infrastructure ............................. 48
Table 11: Rural community outcomes under two scenarios ................................................................ 53
Table 12: Successful regional development theories ........................................................................... 54
Table 13: Regional development theories that are not successful....................................................... 54
Table 14: Population growth – Waikato Region ................................................................................... 70
Table 15: Waikato Region GDP ............................................................................................................. 70
Table 16: Top three industries share of Waikato Region’s GDP ........................................................... 70
Table 17: Business Growth Agenda actions relevant to the Waikato Region ...................................... 72
Table 18: Range of factors that support community regeneration ...................................................... 73
Table 19: Definitions – welfare state .................................................................................................... 96
Table 20: Definitions – varieties of capitalism ...................................................................................... 96
Table 21: Definitions – two types of human capital ............................................................................. 96
8
“You can change the future of your community or you can sit back and allow whatever
happens to happen.
You can create your own destiny. However, the cost is high. It means organising a group of
people who are willing to give of their time and energy to make things happen.
It means believing in yourself and your organisation. It means putting aside individual
differences to work together for the good of the community. It means working together to
decide what you want for the future and then working together to make it happen.”
Jack McCall, Small Town Survival Manual 1988:14
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Executive Summary
Population growth has already ended in a number of countries, and depopulation has begun.
Depopulation typically occurs first at subnational level before becoming a national issue. Since
demographic change plays out spatially it has profound impacts on the regional level. Decline
presents both threats and opportunities to regional areas. Regional demographic change is often
caused by factors beyond the territory and as part of the complex interplay of local, regional,
national and international influences and drivers. Governments and planners have yet to learn how
to manage population decline as it does not occur in a uniform manner at the local level and
institutional arrangements and the legal framework are geared for a growth paradigm.
Towns are like businesses – they need to keep reinventing themselves in the global marketplace to
remain competitive. However, the market has not able to find the solution to demographic decline.
There is a symbiotic relationship between the regions and the cities that is important for national
competitiveness that cannot be ignored. Regional policy trends are shifting away from single sectors
to cooperative, multi-actor approaches that deal with place-based issues.
Policy responses
Policies for dealing with population decline share “substantial similarities” due to the universal
nature of the causal forces:
 low fertility and increasing longevity
 population ageing
 economic geographic (mobility) processes – concentration and urbanisation
The literature proposes that there are only three possible policy responses to population decline:
 non-intervention – choosing not to acknowledge population decline or being aware but
doing nothing
 ‘countering’ or strategic intervention – trying to stimulate population growth
 ‘accepting’ the decline and managing both it and the consequences.
What perspective is decided on fundamentally shapes the political and planning framework for
action on depopulation in a region. Strategies for shrinking regions have commonly been a mix of
economic stimulation and accepting strategies for dealing with the negative consequences of decline.
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Strategies
Strategies cover five main policy sectors: governance, planning, economic, promotion and social.
There is significant overlap between these. A comprehensive strategy can cover several policy
sectors.
Countering strategies cover
Attracting human capital
Attracting capital flows
Accepting strategies cover
Maintaining and retaining human capital
Maintaining and retaining investment and
infrastructure
Attracting human capital
Promotion and place-making policies aim to draw people in by:
 creating physically appealing places to live in
 promoting the location as an appealing place to live
 promoting economic opportunities
Attracting capital flows
Economic regeneration strategies aim to bring more financial capital into the location and enable job
creation by either:
 Attracting businesses ie. factories, businesses
 Attracting spending ie. tourism
Maintaining and retaining human capital
Strategies that focus on maintaining and retaining the existing population focus on:
 providing a better quality of life
 enabling social inclusion
 adapting to an ageing population
Maintaining and retaining investment and infrastructure
Strategies typically lie in the policy sectors of governance, planning and economics.
 Governance strategies focus on how governments can provide services and funding in
declining areas.
 Planning strategies focus on pro-actively shrinking the built infrastructure to match the
smaller population in an effort to maintain housing values and improve the quality of the
environment.
 Economic strategies focus on restructuring the economic base activities of the location,
looking for opportunities to capitalise on providing services for an ageing population,
exploring ways to combat labour and skill shortages and utilising the changing face of worker
mobility.
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Countering strategies – key findings
Key finding:
Countering strategies were able to slow population decline but this was dependent on the location,
economic and demographic context of each community. Population decline is unbeatable in places
where the underlying economic and demographic drivers are too strong.
Summary
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Place making in terms of quality of life and amenities draws people to locations
Strategies that focus on new housing, tourism and promotional campaigns have limited
success.
Building new attractions can leave a community in a worse financial situation.
Social policies are more effective than building and upgrading the built environment.
Employment alone is not enough to stop out-migration.
Youth initiatives have been successful in regenerating small towns.
Migrant strategies have been successful coupled with integration policies. They can slow
decline but not stop it in areas with severe structural ageing.
Policies are more effective in areas with the higher amenities or that have higher potential
opportunities.
Peripheral regions are far harder to address than those close to economically strong urban
centres.
New functions are often untested in the marketplace and may not be the saviour that is
expected, ie. factories building green technologies can be susceptible to economic
downturns.
As subnational decline spreads, regional competitiveness will come at the expense of other
regions, as they fight over the same diminishing pool of people.
Areas that begin to regenerate are often only attracting people from the region/s
surrounding them 1.
Places that regenerate find that the newcomers do not occupy the same niche as the preexisting society. They have different spending and living patterns and will not necessarily
provide the economic opportunities that the community is seeking.
Using agricultural policies to increase population in the rural areas will not increase
population.
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Accepting strategies – key findings
Key finding:
None of the accepting strategies that were identified were able to stop population decline; it is
easier to achieve improved quality of life than to slow population decline.
Summary
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Quality of life as an emerging key economic driver.
Quality of life can be improved in declining areas through social strategies.
In the regions it is easier to achieve improved quality of life than slowing population decline.
Social policies were more effective than building and upgrading the built environment.
Strong social connections (social capital) enable towns to survive external shocks.
Youth initiatives led to success of small towns in Australia.
A positive outcome is the ability to demolish poor housing which can physically improve the
district.
Smart shrinkage has not stopped population decline.
Vacant green spaces are not necessarily a positive improvement.
Shrinking populations do not appear to make districts more sustainable.
Planning paradigms need to change from separation of activities to consolidation of
activities in areas of decline.
Governments need to change their legal structures to allow for consolidation.
Emphasising shrinkage can become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Success depends on what you are measuring – for instance, a village in Germany built an offgrid electricity and heating supply that successfully supplied the residents but only with the
input of vast amounts of technical expertise and higher level funding.
Costs involved in green infrastructure provision and green downsizing solutions can be
prohibitive.
Viable adaption options for public service provisions are: improving the accessibility and
flexibility of infrastructure, reducing and/or combining it, offering temporary and/or mobile
provision of services.
14
Key themes for success from the literature and case studies
Key themes emerged for the success of an initiative. These themes are apparent across all countries.
National framework
Enabling legal
framework
Enabling policies
Funding sources
Regional guidance
Local initiative
Enabling policies
Available expertise
Funding sources
Utilisation of local
opportunities
Leadership
Local participation
Local context
Waikato scenario
The Waikato region is a medium-size economy and on the whole has been thriving and growing. At a
sub-regional level, the picture is not so robust. Growth has been disparate and centred around
urban growth hubs with many of the more peripheral areas shrinking substantially over the period
2001-2013.
Scope of changes that can be achieved:
 The communities that have the most potential for turning around their situation are those
that have less problems to start with.
In severely declining peripheral areas of the Waikato the best that can be hoped for is:
 In the context of national population growth and strong immigration – less decline in the
peripheral areas than would otherwise be the case. In other words, the peripheral areas will
still decline due to the underlying drivers but not so rapidly as in the context of national
decline.
 Improving social connectedness and quality of life.
Summary of key factors for community regeneration
few negative
demographic
indicators
few negative
socio-economic
factors
good location
opportunities
strong
community
positive outlook
15
Key finding:
The most appropriate response to a scenario where places are growing and peripheral areas are not,
is to adopt a pragmatic response that uses elements from both countering and accepting initiatives.
For some areas both the long term and short term drivers of decline are too strong to adopt a plan
of regeneration.
A pragmatic plan uses the best of both countering and accepting strategies in an approach that
focuses on positive change while acknowledging that success may be measured in quality of life, a
healthy environment and high quality amenities rather than increasing economic outcomes. There is
a need to examine what can be resuscitated, what can be combined and what can be shut down.
Building a comprehensive strategy for the Waikato Region
Putting all the elements together, a comprehensive strategic response requires assessment of the
regional and local contexts, integration across levels, actors and policy sectors, and should provide
support to local communities so that they have the tools and resources to succeed.
Regional
Identify
•Identify the regional and local level place context
Determine
•Determine the policy response
Lobby
Local
•Lobby for an enabling national framework
Develop
•Develop regional guidance
Support
•Support stronger local communities
Identify
•Identify local issues and opportunities
Develop
•Develop appropriate cross policy sector initiatives
Review
•Measure, review and adjust
An action plan for community change at local level
Key steps in a suggested action plan for community change are:
Accept
Engage
Utilise
Attract
Retain
Maintain
Provide
Retire
Wait
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Is there a place for exit strategies?
There comes a point when some communities are no longer viable. Thousands of villages and towns
across Russia, Japan, Canada, Australia and the US have either completely lost their populations or
are in danger of doing so. There are many examples of people with no resources left to enable them
to shift from declining towns and villages, being left behind living in substandard buildings with
limited services. There is no planned response to manage the situation. The environmental scan did
not identify any comprehensive exit strategies for towns, undertaken by governments in response to
absolute decline. There are strong economic, social, ecological and historical arguments in the
literature for and against deliberately closing down towns that have reached terminal decline.
Some communities do not have the foundational elements to succeed. In these cases, where these
communities do not have a function in building national competitiveness, the hard discussions need
to take place about the historical reasons the community is in that location and whether it is
meeting the needs of residents and the country. Is a place for exit strategies and what these could
look like? At the end of the day do we have the humanity to provide for those who are left behind?
17
1. Introduction
This report focuses on international responses to depopulation and the spectrum of interventions
available. This report has been commissioned to inform the development of the Waikato Spatial Plan
and provide insight into possible solutions for dealing with sub-regional population decline within
the Waikato region.
1.1. Scope
The scope of the report covers:
•
•
•
The spectrum of interventions that countries are using to address population decline.
Key messages and themes from international examples of strategies being used to address
population decline.
Options applicable and appropriate to the Waikato scenario including the scope of change
that is able to be achieved 2.
1.2. Methodology
The methodologies used for this report were:
Environmental scanning methodologies 3: Active and directed environmental scanning to identify
policy interventions and initiatives from academic sources, news articles and grey literature (such as,
but not limited to: reports, theses, conference proceedings, technical specifications and standards,
bibliographies, technical and commercial documentation, and government reports and documents) 4.
Thematic analysis of literature was conducted to identify themes on types of depopulation, drivers
of depopulation, policy responses and initiatives.
Quantitative secondary data was examined from: censuses, OECD surveys and databases, UN
Population Division databases as well as databases sourced from international research units.
Case studies were collected from countries that:
•
•
•
•
Have similarity to New Zealand by political economy (Australia, Canada, UK, US).
are depopulating significantly at a national level and are exploring strategies (Germany,
Japan)
have active strategies to deal with population decline at regional level (Netherlands, Nordic
countries).
showed a range of response types and intervention levels for comparability.
Case study analysis – Case studies were analysed by thematic analysis.
1.1. Background
Since 2013, the local authorities of the Waikato Region have been working towards developing a
joint spatial plan for the Waikato to provide a collective voice on regional and sub-regional issues.
The Waikato Spatial Plan aims to identify key areas for future aligned responses 5.
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1.2. Limitations
Due to time constraints the scope of the report is limited to a few OECD countries only. However it
should be noted that there are many other useful initiatives occurring in countries outside the scope
of this report.
Over 40 case studies and literature on initiatives were examined to provide a range of possible
interventions that are present in other countries, but this list cannot be said to be exhaustive. There
are large bodies of research undertaken on each type of strategy. This report seeks to understand
the broad context of initiatives.
References are provided for further reading on specific or groups of case studies.
1.3. Structure of the report
The following chapters:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
outline global depopulation and demographic drivers
describe the complexity of regional population change
examine New Zealand’s demographic context in relation to a number of key OECD countries
outline the range of international policy responses to depopulation
list selected strategies for countering or accepting depopulation from case studies
list key findings from the literature and case studies
provide key themes for successful strategies from the literature and case studies
discuss the scope of change that can be achieved from selected strategies
recommend an approach to dealing with depopulation in the Waikato Region
19
2. Depopulation and demographic trends
Summary points
 Population growth has already ended in a number of countries.
 Across the developed world demographic trends tend to follow a similar pattern;
• total fertility below population replacement levels for extended periods of time
• increasing longevity
• ageing populations.
 Depopulation is extremely likely under the above conditions.
 There is a lag of several decades between when below-replacement level fertility becomes
entrenched in a country and the onset of national level depopulation.
 Many countries have already experienced below-replacement fertility for many decades.
 Depopulation occurs first at sub-national level before becoming a national level issue.
 Net migration gain only partially offsets population ageing 6.
Table 1: Notes on demographic trends
Demographic trends
Demographic projections are typically more accurate than economic forecasts.
Demographic trends behave like a super tanker – they are difficult to redirect once a course is set.
Demographic projections are best thought of as ‘directional’ rather than ‘inevitable. 7’
2.1. Types of depopulation
There are three main types of depopulation at local level:
 economic – net migration loss in response to an economic or environmental shock or
stagnation (may be reversed if the demographic drivers are not significant)
 demographic – natural decline (more deaths than births) that exceeds net migration gain
 demographic – natural decline accompanied by net migration loss. 8
2.2. Drivers of depopulation
Table 2: Drivers of depopulation
Short-term drivers
9
Economic cycles and external shocks
Political transformations and policies
Changing spatial trends – mobility of workers,
urbanisation, concentration
Long-term drivers
Globalisation
Demographic trends 10
When short-term drivers, such as external shocks, coincide with downward trending long term
drivers, there is reduced ability for towns to recover, leading to depopulation 11. Shrinking and
growing processes may also be seen in parallel in many countries 12.
The balance and interplay of drivers is unique to each country and regional context. Many OECD
and/or More Developed Countries (MDC) are already declining at the national level. A number of
European countries began losing population at the national level in the 1990s. Even more European
20
countries had at least one region that was emptying out during the 1990s 13. Subnational decline is
clear in Australia, Canada, Europe, Japan and the United States 14.
2.3. Tipping points to depopulation
Regardless of the political and economic drivers, in demographic terms once a region or town
reaches a certain depopulation point, the onset of natural decrease, it is almost impossible to bring
about significant population increase. Jackson (2015) 15 argues that there are key demographic
indicators at the subnational level that can be observed before natural/absolute decline sets in,
giving regions a head start in assessing what level of strategy to use. Among them are:
Figure 1: Selected key demographic indicators at subnational level leading to natural decline
Fewer labour
market entrants
than exits
Less than 15% in key
reproductive ages
(25-39 years)
More elderly than
children
More deaths than
births
Natural / Absolute
decline
Jackson 2015
2.4. Consequences
Depopulation is multifaceted and has major flow-on effects for the allocation of resources, the
provision of services and the viability of communities isolated from the economic powerhouses.
Figure 2: Downward cycle of population shrinkage
Economic
degradation
Reduced quality of
life
Reduced investment
in human, social and
cultural capital
Loss of services
Net outmigration
Population shrinkage can be
self-reinforcing, creating a
cycle of slowing economic
activity, out-migration of
human capital, restricted local
revenues, degradation of social
and physical networks and
services, and a reduced quality
of life for those left behind 16.
Restricted local
revenue
21
3. The complexity of regional change
Population decline presents both threats and opportunities to regional areas. Regional demographic
change is often caused by factors beyond the territory and as part of the complex interplay of
national and international factors. Since demographic change plays out spatially it can have
profound impacts at the subnational level. It is essential therefore to develop policy mixes that
acknowledge the place-based and socio-economic contexts at both national and subnational level. 17
Conceptualising policy strategies for dealing with depopulation requires an understanding of the
complexity of influencing factors and drivers on regional populations (see Figure 3).
Any policy that attempts to improve conditions at the regional or local level must give credence to
the overarching trends. ‘Place’ is influenced by drivers of change at international, national and
regional levels in the political, economic and social spheres. The town or region that is the target for
policy strategies brings its own unique set of challenges and opportunities, based on its ‘place
context’ within these wider influences. Place based challenges require place based responses 18.
22
Figure 3: Complexity of regional change - drivers and influences
International
National
Regional
Social
dynamics
Place
context
Globalisation
Governance
structures
Governance
structures
Population
dynamics
Local
Population
dynamics
Geopolitics
Government
policies
Planning
models
Workforce
ageing
Location
attributes
International
mobility
National
economy
Local
Government
Workforce
participation
Industrial mix
and
performance
Consumerism
& marketing
Political
economy
Local actors
and interests
Workforce
mobility
Skills and
talents
Trade
Political and
social history
Social
inequalities
Innovation
Technological
advances
Cultural
heritage
Connectivity
and
infrastructure
Environmental
policies
Changing
societal values
Environment
Settlement
Patterns
Indicators of regional prosperity
GDP
Incomes
Quality of Life
Local
Government
Finances
Employment
Productivity
In-migration
23
3.1. Spatial redistribution effect on regional areas
Globalisation is a key driver of the changing spatial distribution of people and capital. Although there
is no consistent definition of globalisation 19, broadly, in economic terms globalisation “consists of
the integration of national economies in the direction of an international trade-based economy,
direct foreign investment, short-term capital flows, the international flow of workers and people in
general, as well as the flow of technology 20.”
The literature suggests that the forces of globalisation and agglomeration concentrate financial
capital, human capital, resources and infrastructure in globally competitive cities whilst leaving those
cities, towns or regions on the periphery sucked dry of those same life-giving components (see
Figure 4. 21 Consequently, growth is unbalanced with some areas experiencing labour surpluses
while others experience prolonged shortages, particularly of skilled labour.
Globalization affects labour market mobility in more ways than international migration. Permanent
long term migration is not the only issue, long-distance commuting has become common with
people moving across regions and countries for work opportunities. These pathways are fluid and
affect the flow of capital. Functional labour market areas are changing with this mobility as people
live in one area and work and spend in another 22.
The impact of these drivers is stronger in peripheral areas than in urban locations. The effect of
these forces on peripheral areas leads to:
•
•
•
a cutback of services due to decreasing local tax revenues with a flow on effect of worsening
social inclusion
the inability of peripheral regions to participate in decision-making processes yet be strongly
effected by external political decisions
and the struggle to obtain high added value to the economy although impacted by economic
cycles at a supra regional and global level 23.
Beetz et al (2008) emphasize that regional demographic shrinkage is closely linked to government
centralisation policies.
24
Figure 4: Concentration by globalisation and agglomeration
Financial and
human capital
Resources
Peripheral
centres
Infrastructure
Globally competitive cities
In countries that are still growing at a national level, studies have shown that rural communities that
are managing to grow even with the changing spatial redistribution are:
•
•
•
those in close proximity to urban agglomeration economies (spill over effects)
have services
have amenities 24.
A case study of Victoria, Australia showed that over the period 2001 – 2011 only six per cent of the
population growth occurred outside of a two hour drive perimeter from central Melbourne. Periurban areas with strong integration with the city labour market received significant gains in
population25.
3.2. Interconnection – symbiotic relationship between city and regions
There is a growing understanding of the interconnected nature of national competitiveness.
Regional development policy has become a significant issue in the OECD countries as regional areas
are “increasingly recognised as crucial contributors to overall national competitiveness 26.”
Political and academic rhetoric often pits metropolitan areas against regional areas in a battle for
people and jobs. According to Spiller (2012) a more correct picture is that cities are the powerhouses
that feed the regions, providing valuable knowledge that drives regional industry sectors.
For many rural based primary industries, the desk based part of the value chain is often located in
cities with links to global supply chains, communication technologies and international services trade.
The making and distribution part of the supply chain is often dislocated from the research and
strategic management sections. For instance the Queensland mining industry shows that a third of
the value chain by value of the mining industry’s outputs is accounted for by Scientific, Technical and
Professional services. These activities are typically located in the major centres and may be well
25
away from the location of a mine. Neither the main centre nor the region can survive without the
other 27. Thus policy focus cannot be simply directed at keeping cities competitive. “There is
increasing realisation that these demographic trends have profound implications for regional policy
and are critical for regional economic productivity and social cohesion 28.”
There needs to be strong links between the rural end of the production line and the management of
the business in the city. For instance, dairy giant Fonterra announced in March 2015 it was relocating
some of its management from Auckland to the regions to strengthen ties with farmers 29.
3.3. International regional policy trends
Since the 1980s there has been a general shift in regional policy away from financial redistribution to
regional areas. There has been recognition that financial redistribution and focusing on agriculture is
not enough to encourage development of rural places. Three main factors are changing the face of
regional policy development across OECD countries:
•
•
•
an increased focus on places and their amenities
reformation of agricultural policy from subsidies to specific sectors
decentralisation and movement away from regional redistribution of financial support
towards broader policies to improve regional competitiveness.
This approach requires strong coordination across sectors, across levels of government, and
between public and private actors 30. There is a broad trend away from top-down approaches that
focus on single sectors. Policies are shifting to cooperative, multi-actor approaches that deal with
place based issues 31.
Box 1: Regional change - key messages
•
Regions cannot be simply ignored as there is a symbiotic relationship between the regions
and the cities that is important for national competitiveness.
•
Regional policy trends are shifting away from single sector approaches to cooperative, multiactor approaches that deal with place based issues.
The complexity of the problem is immense. How best can we provide for communities that are
suffering from the draining effects of this multitude of drivers? How do we balance the need to have
economically viable regional areas that feed into the national economy yet cope with rising costs of
servicing those same communities in the face of declining population numbers?
There are no easy answers. The following chapters will outline a selection of proposed answers to
these challenging questions.
26
4. Country comparison with New Zealand – case study selection
Case studies were collected from countries that:
•
•
•
•
have similarity to New Zealand by political economy (Australia, Canada, UK, US).
are depopulating significantly on a national level and are exploring strategies (Germany,
Japan)
have active strategies to deal with decline at regional level (Netherlands, Nordic countries 1).
showed a range of response types and intervention levels for comparability.
4.1. Demographics
New Zealand is several decades behind the countries that are depopulating at a national level and
still has a higher fertility rate than most other OECD countries. However, the first of New Zealand’s
Territorial Authorities are experiencing natural decrease.
This comparison shows how New Zealand compares with selected OECD countries. New Zealand has
historically had a higher total fertility rate 32 (TFR) than most other OECD countries. Population
replacement level is 2.1 children per woman 33. Figure 4 shows that most of these countries, except
the US and New Zealand, fell below two children per woman during the 1970s and except for slight
rises, have not regained replacement level fertility. These countries have experienced belowreplacement fertility rates for more than three decades. Fertility is not expected to recover to reach
replacement levels 34.
Figure 5 shows an increase in New Zealand’s TFR coming up to 2010, but more recent data has
shown that this upturn was short lived and reflected the movement of a large cohort through the
key reproductive age groups—essentially an echo of the baby boom.
1
Although the Nordic countries have many useful initiatives, profiles of these countries were restricted to
seven countries for ease of comparison.
27
Figure 5: Total fertility rate for selected nations 1955-2010
(World Population Prospects Revision 2012: UN Population Division)
Accompanying the fertility trend is numerical and structural ageing of populations and increased
longevity 35. Figure 6 shows the classic old age dependency ratio of the same group of countries. This
ratio provides an indication of the notional dependency burden on the working age population from
older people requiring support. The higher the old age dependency ratio the greater the burden on
the economically active population 36. Typically the old age dependency ratio is defined as the ratio
of the population 65 and over to the population 15-64. For this graph the over 70+ population was
selected as many people are now working to older ages and most people under the age of 20 are in
some form of education. Indeed New Zealand now has twice as many people in the classic working
age population (15-64 years) who are not working, as in the 65+ population.
Figure 6 shows that Japan and Germany have significantly higher aged dependency ratios and these
ratios are growing rapidly. The drop for Germany in the 1990s coincides with the reunification with
East Germany and the influx of young East Germans, although this phenomenon only slowed the
ageing of the population for 15-20 years. Reflecting its’ higher than average fertility rate and long
baby boom, New Zealand’s ratio is still relatively low.
28
Figure 6: Old-age dependency ratio for selected countries 1955-2010
(World Population Prospects Revision 2012: UN Population Division)
Many countries have not yet begun natural decline at the national level but are experiencing
significant depopulation at sub-national level. Figure 7 shows that Germany has been in a state of
natural decline for several decades, whereas Japan has only recently crossed the threshold. Some
countries that have a low fertility rate, such as Canada and the UK, have a high net migration gain
that is sustaining their population in the short term. New Zealand’s Rate of Natural Increase (RNI) is
still relatively high.
29
Figure 7: Rate of natural increase for selected countries 1955-2010
(World Population Prospects Revision 2012: UN Population Division)
Demographic trends do not respect political timeframes. Once demographic trends set in they are
very hard to shift.
New Zealand is several decades behind the countries that are depopulating at a national level and
has a higher fertility rate and stronger natural increase than most other OECD countries—in part
because it had a higher and longer baby boom between the 1940s and 1960s, and in part because of
relatively high per capita net migration gains in most years. However, the shift to the ending of
growth is already evident at subnational level with more than one-third of territorial authority areas
experiencing depopulation, and there are lessons that can be learned from countries further down
the path.
Box 2: Country comparison - key messages
New Zealand has an opportunity to:





Prepare
Choose our response/s
Pro-actively manage the consequences
Focus on the opportunities
Promote well-being and quality of life.
30
4.2. Political economy
One of the key constraints for the ability to transfer strategies from one context to another is source
funding and institutional and governance arrangements that may support or hinder the operation of
initiatives.
The countries have been typologised by their welfare state regime and variety of capitalism (see
Table 3). It is useful to consider the welfare state as this effects money transfers between different
entities in the economy, and especially social initiatives. Attempting to transfer social strategies from
one country to another may not be successful if the political economy is too different or it would
require considerable change in legal structures in the country attempting to implement the strategy.
Another consideration is the extent to which tasks are the responsibility of national or central
government and which tasks are delegated to regional governments. Many countries delegate to
their local governments administration of education, social protection, general services, health,
economic affairs, defence, etc. Some of these countries will more easily be able to make decisions
at regional and local level about what strategies can be activated without need for lobbying of their
central governments to change governance arrangement, for example, to allow school premises to
supply various community and social services.
Of note in Table 3, New Zealand spends less than other countries on subnational government
spending as a percentage of public expenditure. This may impact on the ability of local governments
to fund initiatives at a regional or local level. This also suggests that NZ is highly centralised with a
low level of autonomy for local governments. Again the ability to transfer strategies may be
constrained by this situation.
In general, countries that are part of the European Union, as well as Japan, have national level
support for dealing with depopulation, whereas policy responses in the United States have been
primarily at the local level 37.
31
Table 3: Typology of countries – government spending at central and local government levels
Welfare state regimes
38
Varieties of capitalism
39
Governance structure
Levels of government
GDP growth rate %
(2012)
GDP per capita (USD)
Central or state
government
responsibilities
NZ
Wage Earner
Welfare State
Australia
Wage Earner
Welfare State
Canada
Liberal Welfare
State
Liberal Market
Economy
Federation
3
Germany
Christian
Democratic
Welfare State
Coordinated
Market Economy
Federation
4
Liberal Market
Economy
Unitary
3
Liberal Market
Economy
Federation
3
3.0
3.7
1.8
0.7
33 026
46 539
42 302
Education, Social
protection,
General Services,
Health,
Economic affairs
Education, Social
protection,
General Services,
Economic affairs
Local government
responsibilities
Japan
Wage Earner
Welfare State
UK
Liberal Welfare
State
US
Liberal Welfare
State
Coordinated
Market Economy
Unitary
3
Netherlands
Christian
Democratic
Welfare State
Coordinated
Market Economy
Unitary
3
Liberal Market
Economy
Unitary
4
Liberal Market
Economy
Federation
4
2.0
-1.2
0.3
2.2
36 892
49 316
Health, policing?
Education, Social
protection,
General Services,
Health,
Economic affairs
41 243
35 220
43 078
Government responsibilities
Education, Social
Education
Education, Social
Education, Social
protection,
protection,
protection,
General Services,
General Services, General Services,
Economic affairs
Health,
Health,
Economic affairs
Economic affairs
Education, Social
protection,
General Services,
Economic affairs,
some health
Government funds – general and tax (total and subnational)
15 052
18 625
11 198
19 992
General government
revenue per capita***
Subnational
government revenue
per capita*
12 524
14 229
1 308
n.a.
3 184
General government
spending per capita
(USD)
Subnational
government spending
per capita (USD)
Subnational
government spending
14 751
16 051
17 223
1 431
n.a.
3 408
3 158
9.7**
n.a.
19.8
17.0
3 253
Education, Social
protection,
General Services,
Economic affairs
15 827
15 193
5 698
6 852
5 013
n.a
Government spending
18 559
14 220
21 713
18 208
20 063
5 663
7 031
5 149
n.a.
39.8
32.4
28.3
n.a.
32
as % of public
expenditure
Subnational
4.8**
n.a.
8.7
7.7
16.7
16.3
13.7
government
expenditure % GDP
OECD (2013). Subnational Governments in OECD Countries: Key Data. OECD Publishing. (2012 figures unless stated) See definitions in Appendix 4.
*Subnational figures for federation countries are for ‘local government alone’ or regional and local government rather than individual states within the federation.
**2010 figures
***General government revenue: tax revenue, transfers (current and capital grants and subsidies); tariffs and fees; property income and social contributions
General government: combines central/federal government; state government; local government (regional and local) and social security funds.
n.a
Table 4: Territorial authorities and governance
NZ
Australia
Canada
Germany
Japan
No. of municipal
67
565
4 147
11 327
1 719
governments (2012)*
2
Area (km )
269 652
7 692 024
9 984 670
357 027
377 955
Inhabitants (per
4 325
22 647
34 181
81 212
127 498
thousands)
Avg. no. of
inhabitants per
64 550
40 085
8 240
7 170
74 170
municipality
Avg. no. of
municipalities/100000
1.5
2.5
12.1
13.9
1.3
inhabitants
OECD (2013). Subnational Governments in OECD Countries: Key Data. OECD Publishing. (2012 figures unless stated)
Netherlands
UK
US
408
406
35 879
41 528
243 820
9 831 513
16 778
63 244
316 266
41 125
155 775
8 815
2.4
0.6
11.3
33
5. Policy responses
5.1. The growth paradigm battle
After hundreds of years of relatively low growth, in the 18th Century populations in Europe began
growing more rapidly, but not in a steady or cohesive manner. Rapid growth was considered a
significant problem as it was unmanaged and had enormous social consequences. Growth was an
issue to be disciplined and politicised. Governments began planning the built environment, and
welfare and education became ‘social rights’. Many of the institutions and rights that we take for
granted today are the consequence of the social upheavals that occurred during this time and the
practices that were put in place to manage growth. Growth became embedded as a necessary and
essential good for the functioning of society 40.
Hospers and Reverda (2015) contend that “population decline is in a similar initial phase as growth
was in the nineteenth century: it is an event, it happens to us, and as of yet cannot be scheduled41.”
For instance, housing or shop vacancies are not able to be fully predicted. The big picture of
demographic decline can be seen at the helicopter view but the pieces of the puzzle at the ground
level are much more challenging. Shrinkage does not occur in a uniform manner.
The growth paradigm is being challenged on every front. The OECD states that the market alone is
not able to find the solution to the challenges of demographic change. “There is a need for new ways
of thinking regarding ageing and older workers’ output to overcome some of the expected
challenges and to ensure financing of services that are likely to increase, with a growth of an ageing
population, but a declining resource base 42.”
5.2. Policy responses
The literature proposes that there are only three possible policy responses to population decline:
 non-intervention – choosing not to acknowledge population decline or being aware but
doing nothing 4344
 ‘countering’ or strategic intervention – trying to stimulate population growth 45
 ‘accepting’ the decline and managing both it and the consequences 46.
Countering solutions attempt to stimulate economic growth and in-migration. However, as
subnational decline spreads, regional competitiveness will come at the expense of other regions, as
they fight over the same diminishing pool of people.
Accepting strategies generally focus on stabilising the population that is already there. Population
ageing driving the end of growth is a significant new aspect of population decline. Many accepting
strategies focus on innovative solutions and opportunities to provide for this ageing dynamic.
Strategies for shrinking regions have commonly been a mix of economic stimulation and accepting
strategies for dealing with the negative consequences of decline 47.
34
5.3. Policy positions
Policy responses to depopulation have differing viewpoints as to the reasons to adopt them. These
perspectives can be grouped under non-intervention ‘do nothing’, intervention-countering and
intervention-accepting.
Figure 8: Summary of policy positions
Do nothing
•Denial
•Ignoring
•Passive restructuring
•Market adaptation
Countering
•Competitiveness
•Interconnection
Accepting
•Managing
•Utilising
Table 5 explains perspectives for applying policy responses to depopulation. What perspective is
decided on fundamentally shapes the political and planning framework for action on depopulation in
a region 48.
35
Table 5: Perspectives for applying policy responses to depopulation
Do nothing/Non-intervention
Denial
Denying that a problem exists.
Ignoring
Knowing the problem is there but not actively considering it.
Active non-intervention Actively choosing not to intervene. Allowing the market to choose
passive restructuring
which towns survive.
Active non-intervention Actively choosing not to intervene with the expectation that the free
adaptation
market environment will create a new equilibrium and provide
opportunities for alternative lifestyles in areas that can no longer
function as a traditional economic unit. The local economy can adapt
and provide new avenues to create value. Civil society can provide
support functions where government services can no longer function.
Countering/Intervention
Competitiveness
Interconnection
Accepting/Intervention
Managing
Utilising
Active intervention based on free market ideology. Regional closure is
a disadvantage leading to innovation blockages and competitiveness
should be accentuated. The region should be integrated into supraregional and global economic activities. Focus should be on product
specialisation, deregulated working conditions and low workforce
costs.
Active intervention based on the theory that free markets have no selfbalancing mechanisms and the intrinsic value of weak regions.
Redistributing welfare to weak regions is a necessity and an
indispensable good. To reduce economic inequalities, regions that are
strong and those that are weak should be mutually supportive 49.
Shrinkage is accepted and policies are adapted to slow the rate of
decline and manage the consequences of depopulation. Focus is on
how to retain the current population, provide services and
maintain/enhance quality of life.
Exit strategies – ranking communities and retiring those communities
that are no longer viable.
Shrinkage is accepted but opportunities and advantages to the
situation are actively pursued 50.
36
5.4. International policy responses – intervention at country level
International responses to population decline vary from country to country based on historical,
cultural, political, institutional arrangements, issues to be addressed and resource availability.
Countries can be identified on a continuum from high to low intervention within a policy response
framework from passive restructuring ‘do nothing’ to accepting decline. Generally countries have a
number of strategies to deal with countering population decline, however some favour actively
managing the situation while others prefer to let market forces dictate.
The countries presented in the figure below have been selected from among the OECD countries to
show a range of responses to the issues of depopulation. These countries are of interest as they are
either dealing with depopulation at a national level or have active strategies for dealing with
depopulation at a regional level.
Figure 9: Intervention level and policy response - selected OECD countries
High Intervention
Germany
Japan
Canada
Do nothing
Countering
UK
Australia
Accepting
Netherlands
United States
Lowabove
intervention
Within the
intervention levels there are wide disparities between countries in terms of policy
frameworks:
state directed
state facilitated
nationally driven
regionally driven
place-based policies
people-based policies
market-based
public policy-based
The strategic response from the countries listed in Figure 9 can provide valuable insights into the
responses that could be adopted in New Zealand and the Waikato region.
37
Profiles for each country have been developed to explain their policy frameworks and recent policy
developments (see Appendix 1). Some countries have a ‘top down’ approach where policy is formed
at a national level and the regions are instructed to comply. Other countries have a ‘bottom up’
approach, giving the responsibility for developing regional development plans to their regions.
Strategies at the regional level, especially for shrinking city regions in the Western democratic
countries of the European Union, have commonly been a mix of ‘countering’ and ‘accepting’
strategies. These strategies are a combination of old and new responses, promoting growth but
accepting:
 concepts of sustainability
 the need for policy adaptation to decline and mediation of consequences
 the need for state intervention combined with market and civil society to achieve results 51.
5.5. Community mindsets
Matanle (2015) 52 argues that there are five stages that a community moves through down the path
to community revitalisation.
Figure 10: Community stages towards revitalisation
Stage 1
Experience shrinkage and try to regrow
Stage 2
Acknowledge that regrowth strategies have failed
Stage 3
Acknowledge and accept shrinkage as a fact of life
Stage 4
Develop strategies to realise a ‘depopulation dividend’ or opportunities
Stage 5
Achieve community revitalisation
However “economic recovery and community revitalisation do not just happen; they must be
achieved, their achievement requires detailed research and planning, as well as inclusive and
integrated implementation coordination. Communities must collectively imagine and reinvent their
futures and develop the necessary mechanisms to enact those futures and lived experience.” 53
38
Box 3: Policy responses - key messages
 The world has yet to learn how to manage ageing-driven population decline as it differs
fundamentally from past periods of decline and does not occur in a uniform manner at the
local level.
 Which welfare state model and economic theory a country adheres to underpins the
governmental response to depopulation in that country.
 The OECD states that the market alone is not able to find the solution to the challenges of
demographic change.
 As regional decline spreads, regional competitiveness will come at the expense of other
regions, as they fight over the same diminishing pool of people.
39
6. Interventions
This report covers a wide range of interventions or strategies from countries that are attempting to
either regenerate or mitigate the consequences of population decline in their nations, regions and
local communities. Such strategies are “a collection of actions and activities that help achieve a
predetermined goal 54.” However not all strategies are successful. The following sections will describe
the nature of the interventions, findings and challenges from case studies and literature on specific
types of interventions and outline key themes for success.
Policies for dealing with population decline share “substantial similarities” due to the universal
nature of the causal forces:
•
•
•
low fertility and increasing longevity
population ageing
economic geographic mobility processes
 Concentration
 Urbanisation55
Some initiatives are focused entirely on a premise of countering the effects of population decline
and seek to stimulate regeneration, while others acknowledge the underlying drivers are too strong
in their area and accept the decline focusing on maintaining their current population and enhancing
quality of life.
Some countries have adopted a mixed response where depopulation and ageing are acknowledged
and measures put into place to deal with the consequences, at the same time as advancing a policy
of economic stimulation. Many strategies can be adopted by either a countering or accept response
while others are very specific. Some initiatives do not explicitly focus on demographic change, but do
so indirectly.
6.1. Economic growth and capital flows
Human capital (labour) 56 and capital flows (finance) move between countries, regions and towns 57.
These elements tend to cluster in particular locations, which in turn attracts more capital inflows
through “increased efficiencies, innovation and productivity.” 58 People often move to where they
can capitalize on economic opportunities or a better quality of life, while capital flows to “areas with
the least costs and greatest opportunity to increase. 59”
Economic growth is typically boosted by either:
•
•
increasing input - through making more extensive use of resources (land etc.),
human capital (labour) and capital flows
making more intensive use of existing inputs (capital, land, labour….), improving
productivity 60
To ‘increase input’ a range of strategies are used to increase the supply of labour and capital.
There are two types of human capital:
 humans as labour force (a production factor)
 as an accumulation of skills over a lifetime 61 (see Appendix 5 for definitions).
40
‘Countering’ strategies focus on increasing the supply of labour. Strengthening human capital (skills)
that already exists in a location can be part of either a countering or accepting strategy with the
intention that productivity may be increased, thus improving economic outcomes.
6.2. Old Economy versus New Economy
Adelaja et al (2009) suggest that new drivers of growth have emerged challenging previous
understanding of how growth and prosperity operate. The Old Economy placed great emphasis on
drawing in big industries to create manufacturing jobs. The New Economy concentrates on
knowledge based jobs and workers. Place making, in terms of amenities and quality of life, is
emerging as a key component of attraction to locations and retention for these knowledge workers
(see Figure 11) 62. Many locations that are losing population were developed within an Old Economy
model in peripheral areas. Numerous strategies located through the environmental scan are based
on the old economy theory model.
Figure 11: Place and placemaking in the New Economy
Source: Adelaja et al (2009). Chasing the past or investing in our future
41
6.3. Policy sectors
The interventions often come in packages targeted at a particular policy sector. Five main policy
sectors were identified: governance, planning, economic, promotion and social. Strategies cover
these policy sectors but there is substantial overlap between them so that the distinctions become
rather artificial. A comprehensive strategy can cover several policy sectors as well as all levels and
actors.
Figure 12: Strategy framework
Policy sectors
Governance
Influence level
Planning
Economic
Promotion
National
Regional
Local
Social
Actors
State or local
government
Market
Civil society
The following sections discuss ‘countering’ or regeneration strategies in terms of:
•
•
Attracting human capital
Attracting capital flows
Accepting strategies cover:
•
•
Maintaining and retaining human capital
Maintaining and retaining investment and infrastructure
There comes a point when some communities are no longer viable. Solutions need to be found to
enable shutting down of the town and community without significant loss of capital or quality of life.
This is the ultimate challenge.
•
Exit strategies
42
7. Countering or regeneration strategies
Countering strategies are the most common strategies where the growth paradigm remains
dominant. Most communities focus on regeneration without giving sufficient credence to the
underlying population indicators and economic drivers.
7.1. Attracting human capital
Positive net migration is often labelled as the ultimate measure of success for a region or town that
has been suffering from depopulation. People vote with their feet and move to where they expect
the best outcome – economically and for quality of life.
Table 3 lists some typical strategies for attracting human capital from the planning, economic and
promotion policy sectors.
Promotion and place making policies aim to draw people in and retain them by:
•
•
•
creating physically appealing places to live in
promoting the location as an appealing place to live
promoting economic opportunities
Table 6: Strategies for attracting human capital
Policy sector
Planning
Economic
Promotion
Promotion
Promotion
Type
Place
People
People
People
People
Strategy
Development of new built environment to attract immigrants
• Building more social infrastructure – swimming pools etc.
• Developing house lots
• Building attractions 63
Gentrification: Redevelopment of existing built environment and
amenities
• Refurbishment of houses to attract people
• Historic Preservation
• Ecological restoration
• Public space improvements
• Landscape beautification
Targeting skill shortages
Migration policies
Place promotion - advertising
Promoting retirement destinations
43
7.2. Attracting capital flows
There is nothing new about using economic development strategies to bring about regeneration.
Economic regeneration strategies usually aim to bring more capital into the location and enable job
creation by either:
 Attracting businesses ie. factories, businesses
 Attracting spending ie. tourism
The following lists only touch on some of the possible strategies and tools for economic countering.
Table 7: Strategies for attracting capital flows
Policy sector
Economic
Economic
Economic
Economic
Type
Place
Place
Place
Place
Economic
Economic
Economic
and
promotion
Place
Place
Place
Strategy
Downtown redevelopment
Building competitive regions
Smart specialisation – building the knowledge economy
Developing business opportunities from location, natural and
cultural amenities
Boosting innovation
Developing the green economy - eco-technologies
Tourism
There is a large volume of literature on all of these strategies, except for smart specialisation which
is a relatively new model. Smart specialisation is a concept that is rapidly becoming accepted among
European regions. The central strategy is to enable targeted support for research and development
of the knowledge economy. Regions go through a process of establishing a vision for their area,
identifying the locations within their region that have the highest strategic potential for
development, reforming their governance arrangements to allow for multi-stakeholder governance,
setting strategic priorities and implementing a range of tailor made set of policy actions that serve to
strengthen the knowledge based development potential of the region 64.
Many of the tools can be utilised under either a countering or accepting strategy. The key message
however, is that these tools will have only a limited success in a town where the underlying
economic and demographic drivers are too strong (see Figure 1 and Jackson 2014).
44
Table 8: Selected economic tools
Tools
Attracting big business, factories
Partnership authorities to drive forward sustainable economic development
Integrating migrants in declining labour markets
Tailored employment for the population 65+ years
Demolishing housing to bring housing market back into balance
Making transport available for long distance commuting
Incentives: youth, regional migration, business
Targeted skills and training
Special economic zones
Industrial zones
Competitive regional clusters
Eco industrial clusters
One stop business information sources
Business incubators
Tax relief
Public-private financial schemes
Fund research and development centres and MSE networks
45
8. Accepting strategies
The first stage of an accepting strategy is to try to maintain and retain the financial and human
capital that is already in place in an effort to slow further flight from the location. However, in cases
where the underlying population structure and drivers are too strong, there needs to be a shift to
managing the decline of human capital and financial capital if population decline continues.
An accepting strategy may require:
•
•
•
•
Maintaining and retaining human capital
Maintaining and retaining investment and infrastructure
Adapting to an ageing society
Managing the population decline
Most of the strategies listed here are focused on people rather than place, however they may
require significant changes to the built environment in allowing consolidation of facilities, adapting
for an ageing community and reducing redundant infrastructure.
8.1. Maintaining and retaining human capital
Maintaining and retaining the existing population strategies focus on providing a better quality of
life, enable social inclusion, and adapt to an ageing population.
Shrinking regions are typically also ageing. Strategies for adapting to an ageing society will support
social inclusion and will encourage retention of the existing population. Although some strategies
are aimed at older people they may benefit other parts of society, such as wider footpaths for
mobility scooters would also support families with baby buggies or walking with children.
Social inclusion is an important aspect of maintaining human capital. When people feel catered for
and included they are more likely to choose to stay in the location 65.
Table 8 shows the relationship between retention, inclusion and adaptation to an ageing society
within a wide range of maintaining human capital strategies and tools.
46
Table 9: Relationship between maintaining human capital strategies and tools
Policy
sector
Type
Promotion, People
planning
and
place
Planning
People
and
place
Planning
People
and
place
Planning
People
and Social
Economic
People
and Social
Economic
and Social
Social
People
Social
Social
People
People
Social
People
Social
People
People
Strategy
Retention
Inclusion
Adaptation
to ageing
society
X
Redeveloping city centres
for older people
X
Mixed-use/pedestrian
friendly redevelopments
X
X
X
Improving accessibility
X
X
X
Transport initiatives
X
X
X
Promoting quality
employment for older
people
Access to jobs, training
and education
Supporting community
organisations
Cultural regeneration
Innovative childcare
strategies
Providing silver learning
opportunities
Senior clubs
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
47
8.2. Maintaining and retaining investment and infrastructure
Maintaining financial capital of the public and private sectors is a key consideration for governments,
communities and industries in a declining area. Affordability of government services and
infrastructure is a major problem for central and local governments with rising costs and shrinking
tax bases. Maintaining housing values and retaining businesses and jobs are also significant
challenges in a declining area. Strategies typically lie in the policy sectors of governance, planning
and economics.
Table 10: Strategies for maintaining and retaining investment and infrastructure
Policy sector
Governance
Governance
Governance
Type
Place
Place
Place
Strategy
Territorial authority mergers
e-government reform
Service and technical infrastructure provision reform
• Merging local facilities ie schools, libraries, healthcare
• Telecare – health care
• Shrink the size of water piping to cut costs
• Cross region partnerships for healthcare
Pragmatic downsizing
• Redevelopment of housing stock – demolish poor
efficiency buildings, renovate appropriate dwellings to
improve efficiency 66
• Improve accessibility of necessary facilities
Smart shrinkage
• Right sizing infrastructure
• Green infrastructure
• Landscape beautification - brownfield site regeneration
• Temporary use strategies
• Land banking
• Housing market rebalance
Planning
Place
Economic
Place
Economic
Economic and
social
Economic and
social
Economic
Place
People
Restructuring the economic base activities – ie agriculture,
mining and manufacturing
Reforming local labour markets
Developing the silver economy – ageing
People
Developing the white economy - healthcare
People and
Place
Utilising the increasing mobility of workers to bring money into
an area ie. FIFO or DIDO
Governance
Governance strategies focus on how governments can provide services and funding in declining
areas. Governance strategies focus on making resources and funding stretch across all the service
areas rather than specifically on encouraging financial and human capital to flow into an area. It is
about doing more for less. There is extensive literature and bodies of research on each of the
following policy trends.
48
International governance policy trends:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Amalgamation of councils for funding purposes
Devolution of tasks to local governments
Devolution to civil society in declining regions for service provision
Public-private partnerships
E-government to provide services through on-line portals
Community participatory planning
Service and technical infrastructure provision is very challenging for central and local governments in
areas that have declining populations.
Types of service and technical infrastructure provision may cover:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Water supply
Wastewater
Stormwater
Roading
Electricity
Communications
Rubbish
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Libraries
Healthcare
Transport
Education
Welfare services
Emergency services
Retail
Service and technical infrastructure provision reform are typically within the policy fields of planning,
governance and social.
Planning – smart shrinkage
In the last 15 years planners have been grappling with the expense of ageing infrastructure and
under-utilised infrastructure in declining regions and the cost of maintaining or upgrading these.
Planning strategies focus on shrinking the built infrastructure to match the smaller population in an
effort to maintain housing values and improve the quality of the environment. ‘Smart shrinkage’ is a
term coined by a number of regions and cities that are focusing on reducing surplus infrastructure
and buildings to match the smaller population size. 67 There is a strong social element to smart
shrinkage as abandoned buildings can reduce quality of life by leading to high rates of crime, health
and safety issues and cause environmental hazards. Property values can drop and investment in the
area follows suit. 68
Economic
Economic accepting strategies focus on restructuring the economic base activities of the location,
looking for opportunities to capitalise on providing services for an ageing population, exploring ways
to combat labour and skill shortages and utilising the changing face of worker mobility.
The ‘silver economy’ covers a variety of ideas from encouraging older entrepreneurs to developing
“innovative living, caring, and recreational” concepts for older people 69. Another trend is the
development of the ‘white economy’. This is creating economic opportunities by providing
healthcare for older people. For instance, some locations have built ‘care hotels’ where older people
who require continuing healthcare can enjoy a holiday with their families away from their usual
residence 70.
49
There is a global trend towards greater labour mobility 71. People are turning to long distance
commuting (LDC) to enable them to carry on living in their home community but access distance
employment opportunities. Studies in Australia, Canada and New Zealand show that workers are
tapping into opportunities in the resources sector to earn a living. Fly in fly out (FIFO) resource work
is providing alternative employment prospects for some struggling communities, such as in Labrador
in Canada, and Western Australia. LDC enables workers to maintain their home base and their
family’s social connectedness while bringing money back into their communities 72. Further enabling
LDC by supplying transport options may be a solution to struggling communities, especially ones that
are located in high amenity areas.
50
9. Findings and challenges
9.1. Countering strategies – key findings
Attracting human capital
Developing or redevelopment of the built environment to attract people has been a common
strategy that has been used in many regions around the world. However there is little indication that
it works and can, in many cases, leave the local community in a worse financial situation. Failure of
this strategy can be seen in places as disparate as Burma, where a whole city was built in
anticipation of an influx of people that never arrived 73, and the Netherlands where a declining region
decided to invest in developing 1500 housing lots in the hope that people choosing to live in their
region would also stimulate the job market. Only 150 were sold 12 years later 74. In Britain a number
of declining towns were propped up with government money with which various attractions like
museums and art centres were built to draw tourists. They all failed 75. There have been some other
particularly spectacular failures. China built its very own little Paris, complete with a scaled down
Eiffel tower. However, the public wasn’t so keen on moving to a location that was just buildings with
no established community or business base 76. On the whole strategies that focus on new housing,
tourism and related campaigns have limited success 77.
Local strategies often try to reverse depopulation by using gentrification to improve the appearance
of a location. When these strategies work they can cause worse social problems as depopulation is
often a selective migration process, leaving the most disadvantaged behind. When the built
environment is gentrified and newcomers are drawn in to the improved location, the most
vulnerable people are forced out through higher rents 78.
Immigration is often seen as a saviour for countries that are ageing and depopulating. However if the
emphasis in on the absolute number of immigrants this can build a false idea of the success of
immigration initiatives. The quality of immigrants should be considered:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Are they a worker or a dependent?
Do their skills match the gaps in the workforce?
Are they bringing in more financial capital ie. Developing a business?
What are their spending habits? Online, in the community or are they working in the
city and spend there?
Where have they come from? The next region or the next country?
Have they integrated into the community?
Some countries, such as the US, have in the past focused more on quantity than quality 79. However,
“the numbers of migrants needed to offset declines in the working age population are significantly
larger than those needed to offset total population decline.” 80 Policy discourse in the US is shifting
to attracting the ‘right sort’ of immigrants rather than volume. Several programmes for integration
of migrants and enabling transference of skills to the US market are being developed 81. Integration
strategies that enable immigrants to assimilate into the community have had greater success than
simply attracting newcomers.
51
Another issue with immigration is that immigrants tend to relocate to urban centres and are less
likely to move to the regional areas. One case study in Canada shows the achievement of some
success in attracting and integrating immigrants to a small town in a peripheral location (see
Appendix 4.4). Finland has also achieved a measure of success with a strong inflow of immigrants
attracted and integrated into the community. However, the Finnish community has had to
acknowledge that even with the positive inflows, migrants are not able combat the structural ageing
of the population and are merely a buffering measure. 82
Usually the central or federal government is the lead actor in immigration strategies. Certain sectors
also have strong immigration policies, such as the health sector. Immigration can be a tool to slow
the onset and/or speed of decline but ultimately will not resolve the underlying driver of structural
ageing. In addition, the pool of skilled workers from which to draw migrants in OECD countries will
shrink from 2020 as the Most Developed Countries move pass peak population as a whole 83. The age
structure of the population will still age and the community and government will need to adapt to
the older population.
Martinez-Fernandez (2010) found that “The demand for services in health, education, environment,
housing, and entertainment can be more important than access to employment. Shrinking cities can
experience a shortage of skills due to the flight of population, but employment alone is not enough
to stop migration, especially of the youth who want to move to cities that offer a greater variety of
opportunities and living styles. 84” A key attribute of successful small town regeneration in Australia
was the use of youth initiatives - attention being given to the key issues affecting the retention of
young men and women, including employment diversity, education options, transport,
accommodation, lifestyle, image and participation 85.
Research from Europe has identified that shrinking cities in Eastern Germany that are growing again
are doing so only at the expense of the region surrounding them, as the only newcomers are from
these areas 86.
52
Attracting capital flows
Economic regeneration strategies aim to bring more financial capital into the location and enable job
creation. Development policies under the Old Economy have often focused on infrastructure
provision and government investment strategies to attract large companies to areas that do not
have a strong industry mix. Ongoing research is showing that large infrastructure projects often lead
to “greater economic agglomeration, regional polarization, and to an increasing economic
marginalization of many peripheral regions where significant infrastructure investments have taken
place.” 87 Government industrial investment strategies have also “wasted resources on declining
industries, lame ducks, and big projects.” 88 In general, these policies have struggled to cope with the
new economic realities of globalisation. 89
Developing the green economy has been seen as a saviour in areas that have declining traditional
industries as a way to create employment. Alternative energy production has been shown to be
susceptible to economic downturns. In 2006 the town of Pipestone, in the US, attracted a wind blade
plant that created 320 jobs. During 2009 the workforce was reduced by half due to economic
conditions 90.
Generally job creation is likely to bring people into an area, though this connection is very complex.
In many locations in New Zealand there is a mismatch between jobs and workers. For instance, in
Southland, there is low unemployment and few people choosing to move there to fill job openings.
In other locations, there is very high unemployment and limited job opportunities ie. Kawerau. Jobs
are not the always the drawcard that is expected. A survey of dynamics studying motivations for
migration in New Zealand 2007 found that the main reason for people to move from their previous
residence across all age groups was social motivations, followed closely by environmental reasons.
Economic reasons for moving held third place 91. Further discussion on this point is located in
‘maintaining and retaining human capital’.
Population decline in peripheral regions is far harder to address than in those close to economically
strong centres 92. Midmore et al (2010) contends that for rural communities, the best that can be
hoped for under either a national population growth scenario or a national population decline
scenario is 93:
Table 11: Rural community outcomes under two scenarios
National population growth scenario
The rate of decline in rural communities is
smaller than would otherwise be the case
National population decline scenario
Population loss may be mitigated
In countries that are still growing on a national level studies have shown that rural communities that
are managing to grow even with the changing spatial redistribution are:
 those in close proximity to urban agglomeration economies (spill over effects)
 have services
 have amenities 94.
53
Case studies have shown that in the regions it is easier to achieve improved quality of life than
slowing population decline.
Several theoretical approaches to regional development are supported by empirical evidence. The
successful theories are (given the availability of labour and capital):
Table 12: Successful regional development theories
Successful
•
•
•
•
An active role of local actors in internal and external networks stimulates employment
growth
Community-led rural development – a well-developed self-help capacity of communities
stimulates employment growth
Exploitation of social and cultural capital stimulates employment growth
Exploitation of rural amenities and cultural capital stimulates employment growth in tourism
Regional economic theories that are not supported by the case studies are:
Table 13: Regional development theories that are not successful
95
NOT Successful
•
•
The exploitation of local raw materials stimulates employment growth in the production
related to these raw materials
A strong set of local conditions stimulates employment growth
(Terluin, 2003)
There is a significant body of research that explains the benefits of massing business, jobs and
people in centres or hubs, which regional towns just don’t have. It is the classic case of the wealthier
getting wealthier and the poorer getting poorer. Regeneration strategies have been shown to work
in many cases, but this is very specific to context. Although some locations have managed to create
positive outcomes for their towns the issue of competition between several towns or regions that
are attempting to attract the same dollars and people, is still present 96. Not all towns will win.
In some locations countering strategies have been successful, however in places where the
underlying economic and demographic drivers are too strong, decline is unbeatable 97. Moreover,
concentrating on economic stimulation without allowing for declining demographic indicators can
lead to severe oversupply of housing and infrastructure 98.
Spiller (2012) states that “selective subsidies for key industries and infrastructures may well be
warranted. However, these should be directly linked to the underlying competitive strengths of
particular regions, as distinct from operating as generic incentives. This requires a sound analysis of
regional competitive strengths.” 99
54
Summary
In some locations countering strategies have been successful, however in places where the
underlying economic and demographic drivers are too strong, decline is unbeatable 100. Moreover,
concentrating on economic stimulation without allowing for declining demographic indicators can
lead to severe oversupply of housing and infrastructure 101.
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Place making in terms of quality of life and amenities draws people to locations
Strategies that focus on new housing, tourism and promotional campaigns have limited
success.
Building new attractions can leave a community in a worse financial situation 102.
Social policies are more effective than building and upgrading the built environment.
Employment alone is not enough to stop out-migration.
Youth initiatives have been successful in regenerating small towns.
Migrant strategies have been successful coupled with integration policies. They can slow
decline but not stop it in areas with severe structural ageing 103.
Policies are more effective in areas with the higher amenities or that have higher potential
opportunities.
Peripheral regions are far harder to address than those close to economically strong urban
centres.
New functions are often untested in the marketplace and may not be the saviour that is
expected, ie. factories building green technologies can be susceptible to economic
downturns 104.
As subnational decline spreads, regional competitiveness will come at the expense of other
regions, as they fight over the same diminishing pool of people.
Areas that begin to regenerate are often only attracting people from the region/s
surrounding them 105.
Places that regenerate find that the newcomers do not occupy the same niche as the preexisting society 106. They have different spending and living patterns and will not necessarily
provide the economic opportunities that the community is seeking. 107
Using agricultural policies to increase population in the rural areas will not increase
population108.
Key finding:
Countering strategies were able to slow population decline but were dependent on the location and
demographic context of each location.
55
9.2. Accepting strategies – key findings
Accepting strategies can be broken into hoping to maintain the current population, trying to slow
population loss, to pragmatically managing the decline.
Maintaining and retaining human capital
Strategies for maintaining and retaining the existing population focus on providing a better quality of
life, enable social inclusion, and adapt to an ageing population. The reasons people stay in a location
is complex. Studies are showing that attachment to ‘place’ is very important for supporting the
economic health of locations.
Social ‘place making’ has a different trajectory than physically changing the built environment.
Recent research found that there is a significant connection between “residents’ levels of emotional
attachment to their community and its economic growth. 109” In a three year study of 26 cities in the
US with almost 43,000 participants, it was found that “communities with the highest levels of
attachment had the highest rates of GDP growth 110.” In addition social offerings, openness and
aesthetics and education were named as the top reasons people felt attached to communities and
locations, not the expected drivers - jobs, the economy and safety (see Appendix 5 for definitions).
Residents that are strongly attached to their community are more likely to want to stay in their
location. This finding is reiterated by other studies that see quality of life as an emerging key
economic driver rather than previous economic models, such as attracting large companies 111.
In a community that is depopulating, maintaining quality of life can be challenging. However there
are some examples of success 112. Pittsburg in the US provides a high quality of life in the face of
population decline, after a series of measures to improve social conditions, such as; preservation of
historic buildings, diversification of the economy, and mixed use/pedestrian-friendly
redevelopment 113. Research into small towns that survived external shocks found that although
quality of life declined after such an event those towns that were resilient had strong social
connections 114.
Providing lifelong learning opportunities that are both informal and formal for older people has been
shown to have positive impacts “on the attractiveness, competitiveness and vitality” of areas. 115 A
major benefit for providing these opportunities is reducing the social isolation of seniors. Transport
initiatives can encourage social inclusion. Kresl & Ietri (2010) consider effective transportation as the
most important factor for older people. This is also essential for young people.
An accepting strategy that a number of cities have adopted is redeveloping the residential core of
the city centre with a focus on making it liveable and attractive for senior citizens to relocate 116. In
the US as areas have declined there is more space available to allow construction of homes that are
attractive for seniors. Several US cities have focused on making the city centres attractive for older
people ie Atlanta, Nashville, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Charlottesville. These cities have accepted
their ageing populations and are catering for them. In locations such as the United States this
strategy has been successful. Some of these efforts have been market driven however “all of these
initiatives and cities of the EU and the US have been undertaken with substantial leadership and
support from city officials and have been done in full recognition of the benefits to urban vitality and
economic competitiveness that are derived from having a large and actively engage population of
seniors in the city centre 117.”
56
In some areas of Europe where “market or cultural conditions do not favour the movement of
seniors to the city” senior clubs have been established and it has been found that these help
regenerate neighbourhoods 118. However, there is a caution for locations that are shrinking and
ageing at a greater rate, as creating communities especially for the elderly has not been very
successful in places like Belgium and Finland 119.
Maintaining and retaining investment and infrastructure
A key concern of central and local governments is the affordability and provision of services in
depopulating areas, and retaining businesses, jobs and housing values.
Governance
A fundamental challenge for governments is “how to prioritize public investments that will most
advantage a region’s economic future 120.” One of the most prevalent strategies for dealing with
governmental financial constraints is restructuring governance arrangements, such as merging
territorial authorities. Many countries are restructuring their regional or local governments, for
example; Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, and Japan 121.
There is much debate about the costs and benefits of this option, with consistency of processes,
efficiencies and savings on the one hand and loss of local voice on local issues on the other 122.
Infrastructure development is classed as an essential basic element for providing quality of life and
which also enables increases in economic value in locations. Disparities in infrastructure can lead to
social polarization. Finding adaptive and flexible infrastructure options will be necessary for
countries, from national down to local levels to deal with population decline and its associated social
and economic change. 123
Eight case studies of service and technical infrastructure provision in rural areas of Germany found
that modern strategies for dealing with service delivery could include:
•
•
•
•
•
coordination and cooperation across municipalities and sectors;
public-private partnerships;
support and assistance for voluntary community work and non-profit organisations;
mobile service units
the use of ICT for service delivery.
Three of the eight case studies showed that civil society could function as a source of finance when
the market and state were not able or willing to provide the necessary funding for local level
projects. In other cases the state would provide the funding or just start-up funding for a project
then run by communities.
The type of infrastructure that needed to be provided impact on which actor led the project:
•
•
•
Technical infrastructure – state involvement is necessary for logistics, standard requirements
and legal reasons
Retail infrastructure – projects were initiated by civil society – required partnership with
community and market.
Social infrastructure – the state is the most important actor in healthcare provision but other
forms can use civil society
57
•
Cultural infrastructure – civil society is the predominant actor. State and market are
important but participation of civil society is essential for initiatives to work. 124
In all cases civil society played a role in the success of the local solution, requiring active partnership.
New technologies are changing the way location and business interplay with broadband blurring the
line between urban and rural, allowing business to locate to lower density environments.
Technology is also providing new prospects for delivering crucial services, such as healthcare.
Provision of healthcare is a major problem with fewer workers and increasing demand in many
developed nations. Research in the US shows that 640 counties across the country do not have
access to an acute care hospital. 125 Health provision is turning to telecare as an option to provide for
ageing populations in peripheral areas, with examples in Scotland, Denmark and the US. 126
Planning
In locations that have suffered severe depopulation, such as the industrial rust belt of the United
States and East Germany, the local authorities have been responding with strategies to reduce their
cities infrastructures. In East Germany vacant houses are being torn down, while in Youngston, Ohio
a city wide planning project has focused on reducing the infrastructure to fit the smaller community.
Creating green infrastructure goes hand in hand with demolition of houses or old industrial sites. A
popular choice is to create pocket parks on land between buildings and park walkways. These new
green spaces that have been created are then available for recreation. This technique has been used
in the Netherlands, Germany and the US. Studies have shown that these parks are popular and can
increase property values in adjacent housing 127. Landscape beautification is part of the greening
process whereby derelict structures are removed and fencing or planting is added. The idea is create
the appearance of control for land that cannot be redeveloped immediately. The property is less
likely to become a neighbourhood dumping ground. This technique is all about perception,
maintaining market value for future investors by regular maintenance 128.
Case study analysis has not shown smart shrinkage to be successful in terms of reducing
depopulation. Regional case studies in Appendix 3.1-3.3 clearly show that population decline has not
been stopped by the measures even though they are innovative and creative solutions. On a local
level, the declining city of Youngston in the US attempted a strong vision of smart shrinkage and still
struggled to stem the tide 129. The suggestion is that if population decline is emphasized to the public
then it will become a self-fulfilling prophecy 130.These places have however, had some success in
improving quality of life.
Demolishing the built environment needs to be handled with great care. Strategies for demolishing
redundant infrastructure are the hallmark of Germany’s response to demographic decline. However,
when it comes to homes, it is not just about bricks and mortar: “every house represents, aside from
an economic value, also a historical, cultural, social, and emotional value.” The cultivated
environment has too much built ‘surplus’ to simply remove it all 131.
Planning for growth and planning for decline can also be defined by the way we think about people
and space. Planners segregate functions in a growth area so that living, working and recreation are
separated from each other. This is essential and necessary in a growth area, however in a declining
area this can become a problem. To keep people together and to kept services viable the
development of centres or bundles of services in multi-functional buildings may provide a solution. A
58
paradigm shift needs to be taken within the planning community to develop plans for consolidation
of activities rather than separation 132.
Economic
There are many innovative initiatives to harness economic opportunities however the cost of such
initiatives is often prohibitive. A case study in Germany of a bioenergy village project showed the
vast amount of technical expertise and funding was required to make a difference at local level
(Appendix 5.1). Although the project was successful and met the needs of the village it would not
have been possible without significant outside help. If a cost benefit analysis was conducted on the
enterprise it may be that the project should not have gone ahead.
Developing economic opportunities through providing services, activities and opportunities for older
people have been successful in some locations. Questions remain about whether such strategies are
sustainable in the long term. How large is the market for care hotels? Will younger people and
families want to live in locations that are marketed for older people? Will there be too many
locations that are trying to attract the same older people as retirement destinations 133? What
happens when those people move from the young old to the old old and then require higher levels
of care than previously?
This can be achieved through restructuring the economic base activities of the location, looking for
opportunities to capitalise on providing services for an ageing population, exploring ways to combat
labour and skill shortages and utilising the changing face of worker mobility.
The challenge is not just attracting human capital as the labour force but also strengthening the skill
base of the population which is already in the location as “human capital is the most important
ingredient for long-run regional economic prosperity.” 134 Education and skills training is named as a
critical pathway for improving productivity toward economic growth. Developing human capital
helps to advance innovation and technology uptake.135
Sustainability
There is a hope that a positive outcome of depopulation is improved sustainability. Unfortunately,
preliminary conclusions from assessments of sustainability in depopulating locations suggested that
shrinking populations do not necessarily make districts more sustainable. Vacant green spaces are
not necessarily a positive improvement. The most positive outcome in a Netherlands study of
sustainability was that demolishing poor housing can physically improve the district.
Creating a sustainable local environment in a shrinking area seems to be a more challenging and a
different process than the same task in a growing area. Costs involved in the adopting various
measures can also be a complication 136.
The need for swift intervention
The speed of depopulation needs to be matched by the speed of intervention. The speed of
intervention can be crucial to the success of strategies to slow or reverse depopulation in cases of
sudden external shocks. As mentioned in 2.2 ‘Drivers of depopulation’ when short-term drivers, such
as external shocks, coincide with downward trending long term drivers, there is reduced ability for
towns to recover. Depopulation in these cases may be quite rapid, for instance, when a one industry
town loses its only industry to economic restructuring or a significant natural hazard shock destroys
59
the prevailing industry. McArthur et al. (2013) shows in theory that once a rural area has been totally
depopulated this state is difficult to reverse. Their models indicated that timing of interventions is
crucial. For instance, when a peripheral area had experienced a shock, such as losing a key factory, a
roading improvement intervention made a significant difference to maintaining the local population
but only when it was completed with a short period of time after the loss the business 137.
The Ryori Port Rehabilitation Project in Japan is a case in point (see Appendix 4.3).
60
Summary
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Quality of life as an emerging key economic driver.
Quality of life can be improved in declining areas through social strategies.
In the regions it is easier to achieve improved quality of life than slowing population decline.
Social policies were more effective than building and upgrading the built environment.
Strong social connections (social capital) enable towns to survive external shocks.
Youth initiatives led to success of small towns in Australia 138.
A positive outcome is the ability to demolish poor housing which can physically improve the
district.
Smart shrinkage has not stopped population decline.
Vacant green spaces are not necessarily a positive improvement.
Shrinking populations do not appear to make districts more sustainable.
Planning paradigms need to change from separation of activities to consolidation of
activities in areas of decline.
Governments need to change their legal structures to allow for consolidation.
Emphasising shrinkage can become a self-fulfilling prophecy 139.
Success depends on what you are measuring – for instance, a village in Germany built an offgrid electricity and heating supply that successfully supplied the residents but only with the
input of vast amounts of technical expertise and higher level funding.
Costs involved in green infrastructure provision and green downsizing solutions can be
prohibitive.
Viable adaption options for public service provisions are: improving the accessibility and
flexibility of infrastructure, reducing and/or combining it, offering temporary and/or mobile
provision of services. 140
Key finding:
None of the accepting strategies that were identified was able to stop population decline, it is easier
to achieve improved quality of life than slowing population decline.
61
9.3. To retire towns or not to retire – that is the question!
Many towns across the industrialised world are simply ceasing to exist. In Japan, a report released in
1999 stated that 191 villages disappeared in the previous 10 years. Another Japanese government
report in 2006, specified that 7878 communities had more than 50 per cent of their population over
the age of 65 and 423 of these communities will disappear by 2016. Many of these communities are
in terminal decline, having ‘reached their limits’ 141. Russia has experienced severe decline of regional
areas. Over the period 2002-2010, 8500 villages ceased to exist 142. Regions of the United States,
such as North Dakota, are dotted with crumbling towns. Funerals are frequent and visitors are not.
Buildings are burnt down at times to ease the burden and suicides are common, attributed to
financial worries and loneliness. The young and mobile have left for greener pastures. Those people
who don’t have the resources to change their situation are left behind. Often the elderly people left
behind end up living in substandard buildings until they pass away. The built environment is left
where it is 143.
Exit solutions?
There is no planned response to manage the situation. The environmental scan did not identify any
comprehensive exit strategies for towns, undertaken by governments in response to absolute
decline.
Suggestions from the literature for exit strategies are:
 Providing subsidies to encourage people to move to larger regional centres
 Relocate towns that are flood prone or expensive to service 144
 Enabling people to commute to work outside of their community 145
There are strong arguments in the literature for and against shutting down towns that have reached
terminal decline.
62
Economic argument
Declining regions are
too expensive to prop
up
Thriving regions are
important for national
competitiveness
Social argument
People don't want to
move away from their
homes - social, emotional
and historical connections
People can become
trapped in a cycle of
lowering house prices and
loss of jobs and need help
to relocate
Ecological argument
Depopulation doesn't
lead to sustainability
and declining areas can
be ecological disasters
Depopulation can
reduce pressure on the
environment and allow
it to recover
63
Other arguments:
FOR:
•
•
Governments shouldn’t bail out failing towns, it is a waste of resources. 146
The decline and ultimate demise of many smaller country towns is part of an inevitable
historical process and should be accepted as such. 147
AGAINST:
•
•
•
Historic preservationists don’t like it
People turn down money to move to busier places 148
It is impossible to remove a district or city in one single try 149
A new debate has emerged in German political and academic circles about whether the old concept
of equivalent living conditions in depopulating areas should be replaced with a minimum standard of
living 150. What this should look like and whether it is achievable remains to be seen.
In areas that have almost completely emptied out there needs to be some sort of welfare provision
and physical support for those people left behind. Can we create a social fund that will enable
people who want to leave but do not have the finances, to relocate to a viable community so that
we do not see the despair and deprivation that is being noted in places such as the US?
64
10.Key themes for success
10.1.
Key themes across all strategies
Over 40 case studies from OECD countries were analysed for their key themes. Many strategies and
tools can be utilised in both a countering or accepting concept but it is important to acknowledge
that the underlying drivers of change will in most cases continue to challenge responses. An
Australian study of 14 small communities that experienced regeneration noted that none of the
communities felt that they could ‘rest on their laurels’. The journey is a continuous one 151.
Similarities between case studies emerged with themes that were common regardless of
circumstances or whether they were are countering or accepting strategy. Reforming governance
arrangements to enable adaptive practices appears to be of greater importance than any other
theme 152.
Figure 13: Key themes for success
Leadership
Utilisation of
particular local
situation
Funding and
expertise
Community
engagement and
participation
Governance
Governance
Governing regional development requires cooperation and integration between different levels of
government, stakeholders in many sectors, civil society and market actors 153154. Putting resources
into removing barriers and increasing subnational level capacity and capability “will improve service
delivery and encourage more effective investment 155.”
Cross sector approaches across several policy sectors showed more potential for success than single
policies with single solutions 156. Case studies analysis has found that successful regional policies
were supported by national policies 157. Some policies and strategies will only be able to be
implemented if the national level policy is reformed to allow the freedom and adaptability to
undertake a task at regional or local level 158. For instance, to be able to translate the idea of off-grid
towns from Germany to New Zealand, there needs to be acceptance and an appropriate legal
framework at central government level to facilitate and support such an endeavour.
However, it is best if this isn’t translated into a top down response as when higher level
governments “play a strong role in shaping regional governments, the outcome is unlikely to favour
stressed areas and populations within the region 159.”
65
Funding and expertise
Most successful strategies at local level required tapping into a regional or national level funding
programme and source of expertise. In an Australian study of 14 successful small towns it was found
that “all the communities have been successful in cultivating allies, actively seeking information,
networking with outside supporters and securing outside funding 160.”
The OECD (2014) states that effective public investment is a key to unlocking growth in any region
but requires considerable cooperation and coordination across all levels of government 161. However,
this needs to be coupled with local investment that encourages community buy-in 162.
Community engagement and participation
Successful strategies required harnessing the participation of the local business, community and
local government. International literature has shown that social capital (the community) is essential
for success. For instance, the community is more likely to participate if they feel that their
contribution is valued and it will improve the situation. “They are more likely to support the efforts
of others when they trust the integrity of the effort. They are more likely to undertake new projects
if they believe projects succeeded in the past. 163”
Dremel (2013) found that a key element in successful implementation of alternative infrastructure
provision was civil society. “The actor coming into focus most by taking over new roles in being
successful in increasing innovation in the project as civil society. 164”
Utilisation of particular local situation
Utilising the local situation is essential for success. For instance, the town of Waihi is experiencing a
resurgence of economic activity due to several factors. They have utilised a central government
initiative for building a cycleway bringing local and international tourists into the area, their position
as a cross roads to attractive seaside communities and their heritage as a past and present gold
mining town 165.
Leadership
American and Australian research found that success of regional development was dependent on
committed quality business and community leadership that is continually renewed. “Leadership is
the key to maintaining the community’s attitude. Communities that resist change, ignore new
opportunities, focus on threats and refuse to take any risks are in serious trouble 166.”
The McKinsey Report of regional development in Australia made the statement that “given the task
of rejuvenating a region and the choice of $50 million, or $2 million and 20 committed local leaders,
we would chose the smaller amount of money and the committed leaders 167.”
66
10.2.
Local community requirements to tackle community change
There is extensive literature on factors that make communities vibrant or resilient. The nature of the
local community is essential to achieving any goals. Some common community characteristics are:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Attitudes of optimism, empowerment and interdependence
Well-developed problems solving skills and a spirit of self-reliance
Viewing challenges as opportunities instead of seeing themselves as victims
Organisational arrangements that foster community participation
Leadership - shared community-wide leadership and skilled individual leaders.
Strong social capital 168
Australian research showed that communities that have managed to succeed in regeneration went
through some key processes to achieve their aims.
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Building a shared vision of the best community future
Community ownership of the planning process
Commitment to funding the programme locally
Local council support and involvement
Encouraging participation from a cross section of the community
Building an active committee with representation from local government, business and
community groups
Broad community support for the programme
Brainstorming with the community for ideas
Thinking outside the box
Working through a series of steps to identify opportunities and organize actions
Focusing on the communities assets rather than problems
Knowing the local economy
Focusing on the achievable before moving to the desirable outcomes
Thinking long term, not short term
Being realistic about what can be achieved
Measuring outcomes and adjusting accordingly
Keeping the community informed
Celebrating successes 169
These ideas of community development need to be reframed into an action plan for community
change in a declining population situation. Section 11 will examine the Waikato Region and make
suggestions for a conceptual model for a comprehensive strategic response. This is followed by a
local level community action plan for activating community change.
67
10.3.
Transferability
There are essentially three levels of governance in New Zealand, national, regional and local. The
policies will need to be targeted at the specific level of governance that is applicable. If a strategy
requires national level governance change then by definition the strategy will take more
coordination and cooperation to be achieved. Some individual strategies and tools may be directly
translated to the New Zealand context.
The ability to transfer good practices will rely on:
•
•
•
•
National framework
 National government institutional structures
 Strong national policies
 National funding streams
Regional guidance
 Regional government institutional structures
 Strong regional policies
 Regional funding streams
Integration and cooperation across all actors and levels
Utilisation of the particular local scenario 170
Figure 14: Key elements for transferability of town and individual policy strategies
National framework
Enabling legal
framework
Enabling policies
Funding sources
Regional guidance
Enabling policies
Available expertise
Funding sources
Local initiative
Utilisation of local
opportunities
Leadership
Local participation
Local context
Generally, planning and economic strategies may be translated from other countries to New Zealand
at the regional level as local governments have the legal framework to make decisions at this level.
Promotion strategies require the cooperation of local government and business and do not require
central government input, except in the area of immigration policy. Some social initiatives will be
able to be applied at local level, while others will require governance changes. The most challenging
initiatives are those that require a complete rethink of how our governance and planning
frameworks operate, particularly for combining services as the current legal arrangements tend to
focus on the separation of activities.
68
10.4.
Summary
There is evidence that economies no longer operate in the same way as the past. Globalisation and
all its associated attributes has changed the behaviour of human and financial capital flows.
Research suggests that human and creative capital drive economic growth rather than being a result
of such growth 171. Strategies that were used in the past to regenerate communities may no longer
be successful. What is emerging is the rise of an expectation of quality of life and this appears to be
driving rather than following economic development. People now expect to enjoy the place that
they live in, not live there just for employment 172. However, to achieve success in building attractive
places to live with a strong community spirit there needs to be access to funding and expertise. Not
all communities have the elements to succeed in the New Economy, especially those that have
passed a number of negative demographic indicators.
69
11.The Waikato Region
11.1.
The New Zealand context
The economy in New Zealand is primarily land or environmental resource based. In New Zealand our
export earnings are strongly linked to primary production from the regions. In 2014 New Zealand
was still earning 47% of its export earnings from primary production (a drop from 88% in 1964), with
tourism making up a further 12% 173. This is only possible with economically healthy regional areas.
There is a strong symbiotic relationship between the cities and the rural areas which add value to
industry production chains by providing the desk based services that enable us to sell to the world.
“Farmers, graziers, horticulturalists and tourism operators need to be at the top of their game in
managing and conserving their resources, in optimising production versus market demands, in
arranging just in time logistics, in reaching new and more valuable markets etc. All this already
requires, and will continue to require, city based specialised services 174.”One cannot live without the
other. “Over 26% of the nation’s tradable sector GDP an employment is directly located in the
heartland areas. 175”
11.2.
Waikato demographic and economic indicators
The Waikato region is a medium-size economy and on the whole is thriving and growing in both
population and economy. Around 9.4% of New Zealand’s population lives in the region and it
provides 9.1% of national employment 176.
Table 14: Population growth – Waikato Region
Total Population
403 638
2013 Census
Source: Statistics NZ
Change in numbers
+ 22 815
Change in per cent
+ 6.0%
GDP per capita
$42 968
Change in GDP 2007-13
+ 22.1%
Table 15: Waikato Region GDP
2013
Source: Statistics NZ
Regional GDP
8.5% of national GDP
Table 16: Top three industries share of Waikato Region’s GDP
Agriculture
2011
12.5%
Source: Statistics NZ
Manufacturing
11.5%
Forestry, fishing, mining, electricity, gas, water and
waste services
9.7%
At a sub-regional level, the picture is not so robust. Although the region as a whole has grown, the
growth has been disparate and centred around urban hubs with many of the more peripheral areas
shrinking substantially over the period 2001-2013 (see Figure 16).
70
Figure 15: Percentage change in the Estimated Resident Population of Census Area Units (CAU),
2001-2006 and 2006-2013: Waikato Region
71
11.3.
The growth agenda
In 2013 the New Zealand government began a Business Growth Agenda with six key elements:
export markets, innovation, infrastructure, skilled and safe workplaces, natural resources, and
capital. The central government has acknowledged that New Zealand’s regions are diverse and each
has a specialisation that contributes to the national economy. The government’s aim is to enable the
regions to grow and succeed so that New Zealand can continue to perform well 177.
Central government has a large number of programmes and initiatives that may bring positive
change to declining areas of the Waikato Region.
Table 17: Business Growth Agenda actions relevant to the Waikato Region


















Waikato Expressway Road of National Significance
Ultra-Fast Broadband in Hamilton, Cambridge, Te Awamutu, Tokoroa and Taupō
Rural Broadband upgrade through Waikato
Waikato sections of the National Cycle Trail
National Science Challenges
Food Innovation Network
New Zealand Apprenticeships and Apprenticeship Reboot
Increased Youth Guarantee places
Develop creative industries vocational pathways
Expand trades and services academies’ flexible school-based provision
Lift Māori school leaver achievement
Māori and Pasifika Trades Training
Freshwater reform
Primary Growth Partnership to lift private sector investment in innovation
Leverage cultural and asset base of Māori economy for growth
Aquaculture reform
Regional Investment Attraction Programme
Callaghan Innovation R&D Grants Programme
Source: Regional Economic Activity Report 2014
In particular, the government is focusing on attracting investment to take advantage of regional
specialities 178. Regions may be pitted against regions as several have similar specialities. More
peripheral areas are still likely to lose out as the programme merely explains the context and
specialities of the regions to enable direct investment from national and international companies.
The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) is leading a programme of Regional
Growth Studies to “evaluate opportunities to increase investment, employment and incomes in the
regions 179.” These studies are expected to provide information for local stakeholders on economic
opportunities and actions that that will stimulate economic development 180. There are also many
useful initiatives at a regional and local level within the Waikato that are in operation at the present
time.
What appears to be missing from this strong countering top down viewpoint is consideration of the
underlying historical, economic, social and demographic drivers that are putting communities under
pressure in the first place, and whether these can be addressed.
72
Will central government measures cause small towns on the periphery of the Waikato region to
grow or will they only serve to strengthen the urban hubs? Will the strong become stronger and the
weak, weaker?
11.4.
The scope of change that can be achieved
The Waikato region is a region of opposites. The picture painted by research is not a positive one for
peripheral areas. The communities that have the most potential for turning around their situation
are those that have less problems to start with181.
Declining areas that have the potential for retention of population and positive growth are those
that have significant factors that can support their community regeneration plans. Studies have
shown that those towns decide to take action before they have passed too many negative
demographic indicators are sometimes able to regenerate. The strength of the social capital of the
community is a major factor for success.
Table 18: Range of factors that support community regeneration
Socio-demographic
• Few negative demographic indicators
• Few negative socio-economic factors
Location
• Are on major transport routes
• Have high amenity values
• Have good services
• Are close to vibrant urban hubs
Community – social capital
• Attitudes of optimism, empowerment and interdependence
• Viewing challenges as opportunities instead of seeing themselves as victims
• Have a community that has strong leadership, optimism, problem solving skills, self-reliance
and community ownership
• Organisational arrangements that foster community participation
• Leadership - shared community-wide leadership and skilled individual leaders
• Have active local actors in internal and external networks
• Have a well-developed self-help capacity to stimulate employment growth
Resources and Economy
• Have the ability to exploit social and cultural capital to stimulate employment growth
• Have the ability to change functions to match the global marketplace
• Have the ability to exploit rural amenities and cultural capital to stimulate employment
growth in tourism
73
However, it needs to be borne in mind that places that regenerate will not return to a previous state
as:
•
•
Areas that begin to regenerate are often only attracting people from the region surrounding
them 182.
Places that regenerate find that the newcomers do not occupy the same niche as the
traditional society 183. They have different spending and living patterns and will not
necessarily provide the economic opportunities that the community is seeking. 184
For some sub-regional areas, both the long term and short term drivers are too strong to adopt a
plan of regeneration that ignores the underlying processes. To do this could potentially load the
local population with unserviceable debt. In severely declining peripheral areas of the Waikato the
best that can be hoped for is:
 In the context of national population growth and strong immigration – less decline in the
peripheral areas than would otherwise be the case. In other words, the peripheral areas will
still decline due to the underlying drivers, but not so rapidly.
 Improving social connectedness and quality of life.
Constraints on growth
The Waikato region will be restricted in its ability to further increase GDP from its primary sector as
most of the productive land is already well developed. Recently the region has suffered from
drought which has impacted on its primary production185. Growth in the primary sector will also be
retrained by the limits of the environment’s carrying capacity, particularly soil and water.
Figure 16: Summary of factors for community regeneration
few negative
demographic indicators
few negative socioeconomic factors
good location
opportunities
strong community
positive outlook
74
11.5.
Building a comprehensive strategy for the Waikato Region
Some economists believe that a competitive viewpoint will ultimately result in misallocation of
resources in redundant policy programmes. They state that a better strategy is to build an integrated
approach which encompasses a ‘mega economic region’ with the dominant city (Hamilton) as the
centre point of the region. Investment and economic development strategies should then focus on
the sub-region’s place context competitive strengths 186.
Putting all the elements together, a comprehensive strategic response requires assessment of the
regional and local contexts, integration across levels, actors and policy sectors, and should provide
support to local communities so that they have the tools and resources to succeed.
Figure 17: Building a comprehensive strategy
Identify the regional and local level place context
Drivers and influences
Demographic indicators
Place opportunities and
specialities
Determine the policy response
Countering
Accepting
Lobby for an enabling national framework
Legal framework
Enabling policies
Funding sources
Develop regional guidance
Enabling policies
Provide expertise
Provide funding sources
Support stronger local communities
Optimism
Problem solving
Community
participation
Leadership
Identify local issues and opportunities
Drivers and influences
Demographic indicators
Place opportunities and
specialites
Develop appropriate cross policy sector initiatives
Governance
Planning
Economic
Promotion
Social
Review
Measure
Adjust
75
11.6.
Action plan for local level community change
Outlined below is a suggested action plan. This is a pragmatic approach that focuses on positive
change in the face of declining population at sub-regional level. This plan aims to use the best of
both countering and accepting strategies but acknowledges that ‘success’ may be measured in
quality of life, a healthy environment and high quality amenities rather than increasing economic
outcomes. There is a need to examine what can be resuscitated, what can be combined and what
may need to be shut down.
Figure 18: Key steps in community plan for change
Accept
Engage
Utilise
Attract
Retain
Maintain
Provide
Retire
Wait
Accept
•
•
•
•
Accept that prosperity may need to have a different appearance than in the past
Accept that peak population in peripheral towns was a hallmark of the Old Economy when
New Zealand was the bread basket of the UK
Accept that the existing infrastructure is a product of those historical situations
Accept population ageing
Engage
Engage with the local community to see what ideas they have, develop local community leaders,
train and mentor. Are there people in the community that are looking for leadership opportunities?
Utilise
Identify key industries, natural resources, amenities that could provide new functions for the
location.
Attract
Use people based initiatives and social strategies for attracting newcomers, rather than building new
attractions, unless there is a very clear opportunity, such as capitalising on the national cycleway
network.
Use targeted migration integration initiatives in places with low unemployment and a high number
of job or skill vacancies.
Retain
Focus on strengthening the community’s skills base, social inclusion and connectedness through –
youth initiatives, transport initiatives, educational opportunities, skills training, community groups,
and senior groups.
76
Maintain
Critically examine what can be resuscitated, what can be combined and what may need to be shut
down. Look at best practise examples of new models for services ie. citizen buses, telecare, off-grid
communities, temporary and/or mobile provision. Are any of these new models able to be used in
the location?
Provide
Look for initiatives to provide for the ageing population ie. providing silver learning opportunities,
mobility scooter friendly accesses, transport initiatives, employment for older people.
Retire
Lobby central and local government to develop a fund to enable derelict abandoned buildings to be
demolished.
If the costs are too great for demolition, explore other options such as beautifying buildings by
growing creepers over unsightly buildings. This technique has been used in Germany.
Many former abandoned locations have been reinvented as historic sites after several decades.
Wait
Good quality buildings may not be used now but should not be demolished as in the future there
may be a new function for them.
Summary
Towns are like businesses – they need to keep reinventing themselves in the global marketplace to
remain competitive. However, some communities do not have the functional elements to succeed.
In these cases, where these communities do not have a role in building national competitiveness,
the hard discussions need to take place about the historical reasons the community is in that
location and whether it is still meeting the needs of residents and the country. We need to have a
discussion about whether there is a place for exit strategies and what these could look like. There
needs to be a discussion about what can be done to help the people left behind to live in a socially
acceptable, safe and dignified manner.
77
12.Conclusion
Changing settlement patterns are a product of historical placement, economic functions and realities,
political and social changes and demographic trends. Settlement patterns will continue to change
but the symbiotic relationship between the cities and regions is essential for prosperity. MartinezFernandez, et al., 2012 states that it is essential that political strategies and guidelines are developed
to tackle demographic change or “communities and local areas risk not only loosing competitiveness
or becoming disconnected from the globalisation grid but chiefly becoming further rooted in
population, economic and employment shrinkage.” 187
A wide range of responses to depopulation across the OECD countries were examined. Some
countries put a great deal of effort into providing resources, funding and expertise to encourage
innovation in their periphery weak areas. Countries that follow neoliberal policies more closely tend
towards an expectation of self-help for local communities 188.
Several themes for success were evident from case studies, governance, access to funding and
expertise, community engagement, utilisation of the local scenario and leadership. In the past
provision of most policy sectors has been treated separately, such as housing, healthcare, education,
and water. Reforming governance arrangements to enable flexible and adaptive planning across
policy sectors appears to be of greater importance than any other theme 189.
What improves the situation for one location may not work for another. A level of realism needs to
be applied to the problem of declining peripheral areas of the Waikato. In declining areas we are
unlikely to ever see again the population levels of the heyday of primary production in the 1960s.
The infrastructure that was built at the peak in small towns across New Zealand is mostly still there.
We need to accept that and focus on what needs to happen now to keep our heartland beating.
The most practical solution to depopulation is to accept that it is an issue, pragmatically look at what
can be resuscitated, what can be combined and what might be shut down. However, instead of this
process being undertaken in different government departments, on different governmental levels
with limited community input in a disjointed, haphazard way, each town should be facilitated to
build their own solution with support and resources from central and local government. It would
also be beneficial to examine the role each town plays in the overall region and national context as
to continue down New Zealand’s competitive free market approach will only lead to ‘winning towns’
and ‘losing towns’, with those who win being those that become adept at accessing funding,
expertise and tapping niche markets 190.
At present New Zealand is not depopulating on a national level, so we have some time. Further
down the track there may come a time that some areas need to be retired, but only if they are not
important to the entire chain of production.
There comes a point when some communities are no longer viable. Thousands of villages and towns
across Russia, Japan, Canada, Australia and the US have either completely lost their populations or
are in danger of doing so. There are many examples of vulnerable people being left behind in broken
down buildings. Towns are like businesses – they need to keep reinventing themselves in the global
marketplace to remain competitive. However, some communities do not have the foundational
elements to succeed. In these cases, where these communities do not have a function in building
national competitiveness, the hard discussions need to take place about the historical reasons the
78
community is in that location and whether it is meeting the needs of residents and the country. We
need to have a discussion about whether there is a place for exit strategies and what these could
look like. There needs to be a discussion about what can be done to help the people left behind in a
socially acceptable and dignified way.
Matanle (2010) contends that “the management of shrinking processes is therefore not a question
of choice, but a challenge that must be met.” 191 At the end of the day do we have the humanity to
provide for those who are left behind?
79
Appendix 1 – Country Profiles
1.1
Australia
Australia
Governance Structure
Country level policy
response
Level of intervention
Recent policy
developments
1.2
Regional level depopulation
Federation
Layers of Government 3
Counter/Intervention – competitiveness
Low intervention – free market policies
Regionally driven – some state facilitation
Federal government supports community development and engagement,
state governments have their own regional development initiatives.
Interventions have been limited in scope and financial commitment 192.
There are regional migration incentives and special Visa categories for
international migrants.
Australia is primarily focused on a paradigm of growth 193.
A new ministry was created in 2013 responsible for regional development
covering - infrastructure, regional development, local government,
territories and disaster recovery.
Most jurisdictions have adopted a ‘bottom up’, partnership, local context
approach; with self-help for regions and communities; a focus on
delivering services and managing change, as well as on regional leadership;
and strategies based on developing regional competitiveness 194.
Canada
Canada
Governance Structure
Country level policy
response
Level of intervention
Recent policy
developments
Regional level depopulation
Federation
Layers of Government 3
Counter/Intervention – competitiveness
Medium intervention
Federal facilitation
Six Federal regional development agencies support regional development
policy in addition to the actions delegated to provinces/localities.
Federal RDAs focus on supporting innovation, trade and investment,
business development, and community/local economic development.
Western Innovation Initiative (WINN) provides incentives to get new
technologies to the marketplace.
Particular focus on innovation, skills development, economic
diversification, productivity and business development.
Supporting the development of rural business. The Community Futures
Program promotes bottom-up economic development in rural areas.
Focus on an integrated approach to rural policy so that rural priorities are
taken into consideration in the development of government policy, with
an aim for policy coherence across ministries (OECD 2006).
80
1.3
Germany
Germany
Governance Structure
Country level policy
response
Level of intervention
Recent policy
developments
1.4
National level depopulation
Federation
Layers of Government 4
Accepting – managing and utilising
High intervention
Regionally driven
Place based responses
Although Germany is actively managing shrinkage with a particular focus
on housing issues 195, the regions are responsible for mergers of local
governments and most tasks are delegated to the regions. The regions are
developing strategies to manage depopulation.
Reduction in investment subsidies in 2013.
Funding comes from the EU Structural Funds.
There is a programme for the Improvement of Regional Economic
Structure between the federal government and the regions.
The main regional policy instruments focus on improving conditions in
weaker areas to allow economic development 196.
Germany developed the “REGIONEN AKTIV” programme to address
inadequacies in existing agricultural and other sectoral policy approaches.
Here a number of small model areas (“Regionen”) were selected and local
partnerships established to improve the focus of public policy for the
region. (OECD 2006)”
Japan
Japan
Governance Structure
Country level policy
response
Level of intervention
Recent policy
developments
National level depopulation
Unitary
Layers of Government 3
Counter – competitiveness
Accepting – managing and utilising
Medium - High Intervention
State direction but regionally driven
There is a wide range of responses in Japan to decline from denial to
accepting and looking at exit strategies – shutting down towns.
National Spatial Strategies outlines grand designs at national level for next
10 years. Eight regional plans define designs for individual regions under
the National Spatial Planning Act. Several laws govern specific types of
regions and frameworks for development.
Local government reforms and mergers (municipalities reduced from 3 232
in 1999 to 1 718 in 2014.
Revitalisation of regions through: competiveness, promotion of private
investment, response to ageing communities, response to energy issues.
Future City initiative – sharing experiences from cities that have overcome
key regional challenges
A Grand Design for National Spatial Policy was published in July 2014.
Review of statutory national spatial plan to be launched
81
1.5
Netherlands
Netherlands
Governance Structure
Country level policy
response
Level of intervention
Recent policy
developments
1.6
Regional level depopulation
Unitary
Layers of Government 3
Counter/Intervention – competitiveness
Low intervention – free market policies
Regionally driven
National level policy “Top Sector” policy focuses on supporting sectors that
achieved the most for the Netherlands economically and maximising
these.
The regions are responsible for strategies for regional development or
shrinkage.
The Netherlands has been pushing a decentralisation agenda and a
number of functions have been shifted to the subnational government
levels – spatial planning, regional development, traffic and transport, and
environment (OECD 2014).
The government released the National Policy Strategy for Infrastructure
and Spatial Planning (SVIR) in 2012. This document outlines the national
priorities by the central government. Governance structures are in the
process of being reformed to reduce the number of provinces and
municipalities as well as removal of other administrative bodies that exist
between the provinces and local government (OECD 2014).
UK
UK
Governance Structure
Country level policy
response
Level of intervention
Recent policy
developments
Regional level depopulation
Unitary
Layers of Government 4
Denial/Ignore/Counter/Intervention
State driven and state directed
Low intervention
Some place based policies but mostly top down. Large scale reorder of
local agencies that deal with regional development. Some communities
will be allowed greater planning scope at local level.
Since 2010 the nine regional development agencies have been abolished
and focus has been shifted to local enterprise partnerships instead that
will be able to decide on local priorities for investment in infrastructure.
No clear regional development policy framework since abolishment.
A Technology Strategy Board was created in 2013 to build innovation.
24 enterprise zones were created with tax incentives and simplified local
planning regulations.
Scotland has been actively countering depopulation.
82
1.7
US
US
Governance Structure
Country level policy
response
Regional level depopulation
Federation
Layers of Government 4
Ignore/Counter/Intervention/Accept – free market policies
Low intervention – decentralised
Regionally or local level driven
Level of intervention
There is a wide range of responses to depopulation. For the most part
there is passive restructuring or an expectation of adaption. Some areas
are attempting to counter or actively accept with strategies that deal with
reducing infrastructure or developing places that are attractive for ageing
populations.
Recent policy
At the federal level there has been some attempt at greater coordination
developments
and integration of policies for regional development.
There is a shift to place based policy thinking.
There is a greater focus on regional innovation clusters.
White House’s Neighbourhood Revitalisation Initiative – areas called
promise zones – try to attract private investment, develop affordable
housing and create jobs.
Source for all country profiles: OECD (2014).
83
Appendix 2 – Index of case studies
Type
Motivator
Location
Case study
Reference
All
Case
study
level
L
Countering
Australia
14 case studies of small Australian
communities that have regenerated
(Kenyon, et al., 2001)
All
N/R
Countering
Australia
(Weyman & Martinez-Fernandez, 2012)
E
E
N
R
Countering
Countering
E
N/R
Countering
E
R
Countering
Australia
Australia –
Northwest Tasmania
Canada, Germany,
Japan, Netherlands,
UK, US
Finland
Comparative study of 10 shrinking
cities - analysis of their policies and
strategies for dealing with decline
Regional partnership programme
Regional economic restructuring as a
response to demographic change
Competitive regional clusters
(Johnsen & Perjo, 2014)
E
E
E
L
L
L
Accepting
Accepting
Countering
E
L
Countering
Inmigration and labour market
intergration
Housing market rebalance
Developing silver economy
Economic Recovery Fund for investing
in the impact zone, The Ryori Port
Rehabilitation Project
Rebuilding fish factory
E
R
Countering
E
L
Countering
Germany
Germany, US
Japan - Iwate
prefecture, Tohoku
region
Japan - Ishinomaki,
Miyagi Prefecture
Japan, Vietnam,
India, Thailand
Netherlands
Environmental and economic
competitiveness
Workforce development - targeting
skill shortages
www.regionalpartnerships.gov.au
McDonald et al. 2013
OECD 2007 Competitive Regional Clusters
http://www.ufz.de/shrinksmart/index.php?en=18737
(Haase, et al., 2012)
http://kizunafoundation.org/current/;
http://kizunafoundation.org/traumatized-port-strugglesto-stay-together-move-on/
http://kizunafoundation.org/traumatized-port-strugglesto-stay-together-move-on/
(Anbumozhi, 2008) (GEC, 2005)
(da Costa & Meyer, 2013)
84
E
L
Countering
E
L
Countering
E
L
Countering
E
L
Countering
E
L
Countering
E
L
Countering
E
L
Countering
E
L
Countering
E, G,
Pl,
Pr
E,S
R
Countering
L
Countering
G
G
G
R
R
L
G
G
US – Missouri Branson
US – Missouri Chillicothe
US – North Carolina Ayden
Tourism – economic development
finance
Business retention incentives and
expansion
Downtown revitalization: Objective: to
create a welcoming place for
businesses to prosper and for local
residents to shop and spend time.
http://www.iog.unc.edu/programs/cednc/stbi/cases/bra
nson.php
http://www.iog.unc.edu/programs/cednc/stbi/cases/chill
icothe.php
http://www.iog.unc.edu/programs/cednc/stbi/cases/pdf
/ayden.pdf
US – North Carolina Bakersville
US – North Carolina Hayesville
US – North Carolina –
Sparta
US – Virginia – Big
Stone Gap
US – Virginia – Cape
Charles
Finland
Tourism, downtown development,
organizational development
Tourism, downtown development,
organizational development
Cluster based development
http://www.iog.unc.edu/programs/cednc/stbi/cases/bak
ers_hayes.php
http://www.iog.unc.edu/programs/cednc/stbi/cases/bak
ers_hayes.php
http://www.iog.unc.edu/programs/cednc/stbi/cases/spa
rta.php
http://www.iog.unc.edu/programs/cednc/stbi/cases/big
_stone_gap.php
http://www.iog.unc.edu/programs/cednc/stbi/cases/cap
e_charles.php
(Midtkandal & Sorvik, 2012)
Workforce Development
Accepting
Accepting
Accepting
US – North Dakota Rugby
Denmark
Finland-Sweden
Germany
N
Accepting
Japan
L, N
Countering
/Accepting
Netherlands
Eco-tourism
Industrial development
Smart Specialisation
Health care reform
Cross country border health care
Service /technical infrastructure
provision reform
Reconfiguring settlement patterns for
sustainability
Improving affordability
http://www.iog.unc.edu/programs/cednc/stbi/cases/rug
by.php
(Johnsen & Perjo, 2014)
(Johnsen & Perjo, 2014)
(Dremel, 2013)
(Matanle & Rausch, 2011)
(OECD, 2007)
85
G, E
R
Countering
Netherlands
G, P,
E
L
Countering
Canada - Morden,
Manitoba
G, P,
E
N
Countering
Canada
G,
PL,
E, S
R
Accepting
Netherlands Municipalities of
Heerlen, Kerkrade
and Sittard-Gellen
G, S,
Pl
G, S,
Pl, E
P
P
R
R
Countering
/Accepting
Accepting
N/R
R
Countering
Countering
UK - Scotland – North
East Scotland
Germany Brandenburg
Norway
Norway
Pl
L
Accepting
Germany, US
Pl
Pl
L
L
Accepting
Countering
Pl
L
Accepting
Pl
L
Accepting
US
US - Helena-West
Helena
US - Nancy; Ruhr,
Germany
US – Youngston, Ohio
Pl
L
Accepting
US, Germany
Improving regional economic
competitiveness
Immigration initiative
Targeting international tertiary
students in the hope that they will
stay
Redevelopment plans that focus on
quality of life
(OECD, 2013)
http://www.mordenimmigration.com/;
http://www.cicnews.com/2014/09/immigration-mordenmanitoba-093839.html;
http://www.cicnews.com/2015/02/advantages-studyingcanada-024500.html
(Dreijerink & Kortman, 2012)
Education provision, Service provision
reform, healthcare reform
Reducing population decline
(Galjaard, et al., 2012)
Regional attractiveness
Place marketing - Improving regional
attractiveness
Temporary use strategies for cleared
or abandoned buildings
Land banking
Strategic Planning
(Johnsen & Perjo, 2014)
(Johnsen & Perjo, 2014)
Redevelopment for an ageing
population
Smart shrinkage
Right sizing infrastructure
(Galjaard, et al., 2012)
(Hollander, et al., 2009), (Rink, et al., 2012)
(Hollander, et al., 2009)
http://www.iog.unc.edu/programs/cednc/stbi/cases/hel
ena.php
(Haase, et al., 2012), (Kresl & Ietri, 2010)
(Boardman, 2008), (Hollander, et al., 2009); (Shrink Smart
the Governance of Shrinkage
http://www.ufz.de/shrinksmart/index.php?en=18737).
http://www.ufz.de/shrinksmart/index.php?en=18737
86
Pl
L
Accepting
Pl,
Pr
Pl, S
R
Countering
L
Pr
Pr
L
L
Countering
/Accepting
Countering
Countering
S
R
Countering
Spain – city of Avilés
Sweden – town of
Lekeberg
Sweden
S
L
Accepting
Germany
S
L
Accepting
UK, Scotland,
Glasgow
US, Philadelphia;
Germany
Netherlands
US - Saratoga County
Green infrastructure
(Hollander, et al., 2009)
Development of new built
environment to attract in-migrants
Land use and transport integration
initiatives
Place marketing
Place marketing – attraction subsidies
(da Costa & Meyer, 2013)
Promotion of social mobility and
inclusion
Transport initiatives – social inclusion accessibility
Cultural regeneration
(Johnsen & Perjo, 2014)
http://www.cdtcmpo.org/linkage/exit9/summary.pdf
(Haase, et al., 2012)
(Haase, et al., 2012)
(Dremel, 2013)
(Hollander, et al., 2009)
Key to Appendix 2:
E = economic, G = governance, Pl = planning, Pr = promotion, S = social
L = local, R = regional, N = national
87
Appendix 3 – Selected regional cross sector case studies
3.1
Germany – Brandenburg Region
Motivator: Countering and Accepting
Context: The economy of Brandenburg was strongly affected by the German reunification. Berlin is
the central agglomeration in Brandenburg, a peripheral former East German area. The former East
German industrial economies could not compete with western industries and collapsed. Berlin does
not contain a strong economic structure and therefore there is little spill over from the economic
conditions in the city to the region itself. Brandenburg has focused particularly on policies to reduce
population decline.
Issues:
• Structural depopulation and ageing
Policy measures:
Operational demographic policy check
o A check against demographic indicators is used whenever investment decisions need to be
made to make sure they are viable.
Built environment
o Financed by additional taxation, an integrated programme in response to the German
reunification that deals with: vacant housing, private house improvement, inner city
renewal, renewal of public space and derelict land.
Economic and business
o A turnaround from the decentralisation agenda to one of “strengthening of the strong”
o Focus on a policy of “from outside to inside” – strengthening of the inner cities through
retail trade.
Education
o Transforming schools – keeping schools open, reducing physical deterioration of the
schools – the state as a directive role in this.
Welfare and care services
o There is a policy shift away from the responsibility of health care for an ageing population
focused on the health care sector to there being a general social responsibility and
informal care.
Outcomes: The policies have not slowed population decline, however they have improved visual
effects and quality of life. The quality of the living environment has improved but there has been
criticism that there has not been enough focus on improving general wellbeing.
References: (Galjaard, et al., 2012)
88
3.2
Netherlands – Sustainability of redevelopment plans
Location: Municipalities of Heerlen, Kerkrade and Sittard-Gellen
Motivator: Accepting – improving quality of life
Context: These three municipalities are expected to shrink significantly over the next ten years. In
expectation of this occurrence the three areas are developing plans to improve quality of life for
their residents.
Policy measures:
Governance
o Clustering services in multiple facility buildings – primary schools and daycare, healthcare
facilities and supermarkets.
Built environment - planning
o Demolishing houses with fewer houses being rebuilt than demolished
o Development of green space – pocket parks
o Create a green corridor as a link between districts
o Use shallow gully vacant spaces to create small lakes as a temporary water buffer or
overflow
o Separate rainwater from roofs and streets from the sewerage system so that this water can
be used in the small lakes
o Demolish the lowest quality public housing and replace with insulated homes.
o Pavements are being adjusted to cope with an anticipated influx of mobility scooters.
Economic and business
o Encourage existing businesses to hire the long term unemployed.
o Create on job learning opportunities for young people so that they do not have to leave the
location to receive their education.
o Encourage retailers to locate in the central town areas not in the outer districts.
Social
o
o
o
o
o
Involving the residents in the redevelopment plans
Local residents maintaining public space
Providing services for young people to meet
Transport – light rail stations
Transport – improve accessibility of the districts for cyclists
Timeframe: Sustainability analysis undertaken in 2010.
Outcomes:
The current situation and the three redevelopment plans were assessed with a sustainability
performance measurement incorporating 24 aspects that cover the areas of planet, people and
profit. These measures were compared to the performance of an ‘average’ reference district where
no sustainable measures were undertaken.
89
Preliminary conclusions from the sustainability assessment suggested that shrinking populations do
not necessarily make districts more sustainable. Vacant green spaces are not necessarily a positive
improvement. A positive outcome is the ability to demolish poor housing can physically improve the
district.
Creating a sustainable local environment in a shrinking area seems to be a more challenging and a
different process than the same task in a growing area. Costs involved in the adopting various
measures can also be a complication.
References: (Dreijerink & Kortman, 2012)
3.3
Scotland – Northeast Scotland
Motivator: Counter and accepting
Context: This is a peripheral area that was shrinking until the oil reserves were discovered in the
North Sea. It has an industrial cluster that is centred on the oil industry but lacks in other
agglomeration of industries that would support it long term if the oil industry suffered a setback.
Due to the oil industry there has been strong international immigration. However, the region is
aware that the population is ageing with future impacts on labour force. The region experienced a
short period of population decline and this has been seen as a warning. Population policies are
strongly focused on countering.
Issues:
•
•
•
Decrease in school children
Services and facilities - ie
 25% drop in number of shops (1981-2008)
 Increase in vacant buildings
Ageing communities
Policy measures:
Education provision
o Law changes on school closures – reforming school closure decision making to allow for
alternatives, effects on communities and transport.
o The 3Rs project: Reorganize, Renovate and Rebuild – merging declining schools.
Mixed use of schools: school buildings can be used as a library, police station and for social
work.
Welfare and care services
o Older people’s Action Plan Aberdeen City: care services are customised to the needs of
older people
o Flexible care facility and mobile health points – to enable older people to live in their
homes longer
Service provision
90
o
o
o
o
Fixed service model – services are provided from a central point
Mobile services
Internet based services
Telecare
Built environment
o Law changes to Housing Act to enable the government to designate homes to be
demolished due to being unsafe.
Economic and business
o Aberdeenshire Local Development Plan – economic stimulation in rural areas through
diversification
Promotion
o Welcome here immigration policies
Outcomes:
Population trends in North East Scotland were reversed in the 1990s by a combination of the
industrial cluster development and strong immigration policies. This reversal is unlikely to have
occurred without the oil sector boost.
The education and older people strategies have had a positive effect on quality of life but the effect
on population growth is unclear. In general the policies are aimed at quality rather than quantity.
Reference: (Galjaard, et al., 2012).
91
Appendix 4 – Selected local level case studies
4.1.
Bioenergy village
Location: Germany – Lower Saxony - Juhnde
Strategy: Decentralization – technical infrastructure provision
Motivator: Accepting
Objective: To supply the village with electricity all year round.
Population (2000)
Time frame
1072
2004
Policy measures: The village of Juhnde built a biogas plant fuelled by corn, crop silage, sunflowers
and manure from local farmers to produce heat and electricity. An additional woodchip heat plant
was installed to guarantee supply over winter. Citizens of the village pay to be part of the project
and 70% of the village (140 households) have joined. The residue is able to be used again as fertilizer.
A cooperative was formed to run the plant and is funded by membership contributions and profit
from selling the energy.
Funding sources: The project had strong support from outside of the village. Expertise came from
the Interdisciplinary Centre for Sustainable Development (University of Gottingen) which initiated
the project and was part of the process. Funding was sourced from the Agency of Renewable
Resources which receives funds from the federal government, from the federal state Niedersachsen,
the local government of Gottingen and from the EU LEADER+ rural development programme.
Actors: Community leaders, civic society, business community, national level input
Outcomes: Social benefits – building trust and partnerships among community leaders. This enables
the community to act quickly if new opportunities arise. The full range of challenges are being met.
References: Dremel 2013
4.2
Downtown revitalization
Location: US – North Carolina - Ayden
Strategy: Downtown revitalization
Motivator: Countering
Objective: to create a welcoming place for businesses to prosper and for local residents to shop and
spend time.
Context: Ayden’s downtown business community was adversely affected by a highway construction
project that diverted traffic away from the Main Street. Several revitalization projects had previously
failed.
Population (2000)
4,620
92
Poverty rate (2000)
Minority population (2000)
Proximity to urban center
Proximity to interstate highway
Time frame
26%
52%
150km to Raleigh, N.C.
90km
2005-2007
Policy measures: Ayden applied to the North Carolina Main Street Program, an off shoot of the
National Main Street Program which provides strategy and market analysis to enable rural
communities to revitalize. Ayden was selected and received three years of technical assistance and
guidance to develop a revitalisation programme, as well as small business assistance and leadership
training.
Three groups were formed: design, economic restructuring and promotions, peopled by officials,
residents and business owners.
Funding sources: “The National Main Street Program, developed by the National Main Street Center
of the National Trust for Historic Preservation, includes a four-point approach to downtown
revitalization based on a comprehensive strategy of work, tailored to meet local needs and
opportunities. For more information, see www.mainstreet.org. The North Carolina Small Town Main
Street Program (STMSP), an offshoot of the Main Street program, provides market analysis to rural
communities and gives small businesses the resources to evaluate their market opportunities.
Grants were provided for updating facades. The planning department also offered free design
consultations for façade improvements. There was strong uptake of this initiative.
Actors: Community leaders, civic society, business community, national level input
Outcomes: Downtown revitalization was achieved but only through tapping into higher level
programmes for support. The success was not large scale but did enable the growth of existing small
business and conditions for further growth. There were also social benefits, such as, building trust
and partnerships among community leaders. This enables the community to act quickly if new
opportunities arise.
References: http://www.iog.unc.edu/programs/cednc/stbi/cases/pdf/ayden.pdf
4.3
Japan – Ryori Port Rehabilitation Project
Location: Ryori, Sanriku region, Ofunato Prefecture
Motivator: Countering – speed
Policy sectors: Economic and business, social
Context: Ryori was a fishing community that was severely impacted by the Great East Japan
Earthquake and tsunami of 2011. A cooperative oversees all fishing activities and a factory for
processing fish products. Only 206 ships survived from a fishing fleet of 610.The tsunami severely
damaged the fish processing factory meaning that even though fishing has restarted the product
must be sent to other fishing cooperatives for processing thereby losing economic margin. Over half
of the population is over the age of fifty. The cooperative has 453 members, with each member
93
representing a family or group of fishermen. Only 300 are active fishing participants, the rest being
widows or retirees. As these people receive financial assistance and profits from the cooperative,
the cooperative is crucial for the economic and social welfare of older members.
Policy measures: Revitalizing the fishing industry, rebuilding the factory.
Objectives: To quickly rebuild the fishing fleet and fish processing plant. Any delay is likely to worsen
the age structure of the population as the younger residents leave for more economic opportunities.
Actors: Central Government, Kizuna Foundation - charitable funds through grants and donations, a
non-profit organization that was created in response to the needs of survivors of the Japanese
tsunami 2011.
Funding: Local and Central Government and the Kizuna Foundation. The government has subsidized
the ships. Local and central government have provided a subsidy for equipment needs up to 90% of
the cost. The Kizuna Foundation has received approval from the Japanese government for a subsidy
of 90% to rebuild the factory and is also working on grants for the last 10%.
Outcomes: The fishing fleet is now back to 500 ships. The rehabilitation of the fishing factory serves
as a symbol of recovery for the region.
References: http://kizunafoundation.org/current/
Ishinomaki, Miyagi Prefecture – what happens when intervention isn’t fast enough
Towns and cities in the prefectures of Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima lost more than 72,000 through
death or abandonment of their homes. Around 65 per cent of the population that left the area was
under the age of 30.
The tsunami destroyed much of Ishinomaki. The rebuild has not been completed fast enough to
maintain the rest of the population. Over 10,000 people were either killed or left from the town of
Ishinomaki. There is a mismatch of jobs to job seekers. There are currently 168 employment
positions for every 100 people seeking word in the town.
A fish factory was rebuilt and opened in 2013. Demand for the Kinoya company’s product is high,
however, there are significant challenges for operation of the factory. Kinoya is struggling to attract
young workers. Even before the disaster young people didn’t want to work in the labour intensive
industry. Most of the employees are in their 50s and 60s.
Reference: http://kizunafoundation.org/traumatized-port-struggles-to-stay-together-move-on/
94
4.4
Canada – Immigration policies
Location: Morden, Manitoba Province, Canada
Motivator: Countering
Policy sectors: Governance, Promotion, Economic and business
Context: Canada has a low fertility rate and is ageing. At the same time the economy is doing well
and there is a shortage of skilled workers. The Canadian federal government now shares jurisdiction
over the selected of immigrants with its 10 provinces and three territories. Most provinces run their
own ‘Provincial Nominee Programmes.’ Different provinces have different workforce requirements
which they are struggling to fill. People wanting to move to Canada must make an application
through the Provincial Nominee Programme (PNP).
The province of Manitoba has its own Provincial Nominee Program (MPNP). The MPNP travels
overseas to recruit possible candidates for the ‘invitation’ stream for their programme.
The small town of Morden is going one step further and runs a successful active recruitment
campaign through their own community driven immigration initiative to fill gaps in their job market.
Living costs in the town are among the lowest in Canada. Canadian cities are experiencing rising
costs of living that is outstripping the rate of inflation leading to a potential shift away from
immigrants seeking to live in the cities.
Morden
Population
Nearest major city
Unemployment rate
9,000
Winnipeg – 112km
3.1%
Policy measures: The campaign taps into the Manitoba Provincial Nominee Programme, however
Morden identifies potential residents before they make their PNP application. The community
consults with local employers and then promotes candidates for immigration through the PNP. The
community only accepts applications from candidates that fall into the target occupations and the
candidate must make a visit to the area to have an interview, make local contracts and seek
employment.
Actors: Collaboration between local residents, employers, local government, developers.
Funding sources: Manitoba Provincial Nominee Programme
Timeframe: Started in 2012
Outcomes: There has been a high retention rate for immigrants. The community is backing the
programme - with employer support, developers considering building dwellings to house immigrants
and locals welcoming newcomers. A recent survey found that 85% of Manitoba provincial nominees
were working three months after arrival with many employed within one or two weeks.
References: http://www.mordenimmigration.com/;
http://www.cicnews.com/2014/09/immigration-morden-manitoba-093839.html;
95
http://mordenmb.com/business/immigrate-to-morden/job-career-opportunities;
http://www.cicnews.com/2014/09/immigration-morden-manitoba-093839.html;
http://www.canadavisa.com/eligibility-requirements-manitoba-provincial-nominee-program.html
Appendix 5 - Definitions
Table 19: Definitions – welfare state
Welfare state typology
Wage Earner Welfare State
Liberal Welfare State
Christian Democratic
Welfare State
Low welfare state expenditure but strong labour movement 197
Means-tested assistance, modest universal transfers or modest
social-insurance plans predominate 198
States provide welfare services to their citizens, but at the
same time uphold social status differences so that the resulting
redistributive impact is minimal. The role of churches and
families as providers of social services is emphasized in this
type. 199
Table 20: Definitions – varieties of capitalism
Varieties of capitalism typology
Liberal market economy
In LME countries firms prefer to coordinate their activities via
market competition200.
Coordinated market
In CME countries firms prefer more non-market cooperative
economy
relationships to coordinate their activities, including with the state.
Table 21: Definitions – two types of human capital
Two types of human capital
Humans capital as labour
force (a production factor)
Human capital as an
accumulation of skills over
a lifetime
To utilize humans as labour force; related to economic added-value
that is generated by the input of labour force as other production
factors such as financial capital, land, machinery, and labour
hours 201.
OECD definition: the knowledge, skills, competencies and attributes
embodied in individuals that facilitate the creation of personal,
social and economic well-being (OECD, 2001).
96
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Endnotes
1
(Haartsen & Van Wissen, 2012)
The Waikato Plan: Project Brief December 2014: Local Authority Shared Services.
3
(Gordon & Glenn, n.d.)
4
(Alberani, et al., 1990)
5
The Waikato Plan: Project Brief December 2014: Local Authority Shared Services.
6
(Ferry & Vironen, 2011; UN, 2000)
7
(Hospers, 2014, p. 1512)
8
(Matanle, 2015)
9
(Matanle, 2011)
10
(Hospers, 2014; Matanle & Rausch, 2011)
11
(Matanle, 2011)
12
(Wiechmann & Pallagst, 2012)
13
(Matanle & Rausch, 2011)
14
(Frey, 2014; Mackenzie, 1994; Matanle & Rausch, 2011; Sedlacek, et al., 2009; Warkentin, 2012)
15
(Jackson, 2015 forthcoming)
16
(Australian Bureau of Statistics, 1998; Haartsen & Venhorst, 2009; Matanle & Rausch, 2011)
17
(Ferry & Vironen, 2011)
18
(Ferry & Vironen, 2011)
19
(Rzepka, 2011)
20
(Bhagwati, 2004, p. 3)
21
(Beetz, et al., 2008; Martinez-Fernandez, et al., 2012)
22
(Eaqub & Stephenson, 2014; Newell, 2006)
23
(Beetz, et al., 2008)
24
(Midmore, et al., 2010)
25
(Spiller, 2012)
26
(OECD, 2009, p. 17)
27
(Spiller, 2012)
28
(Ferry & Vironen, 2011, p. 25)
29
(Fox, 2015)
30
(OECD, 2006)
31
(OECD, 2007)
32
Total Fertility Rate: The average number of live births a woman would have by age 50 if she were subject,
throughout her life, to the age-specific fertility rates observed in a given year. Its calculation assumes that
there is no mortality.
33
United Nations. Total fertility rate http://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/natlinfo/indicators/methodology_sheets/demographics/total_fertility_rate.p
df
34
(UN, 2000)
35
(UN, 2000)
36
United Nations. Dependency ratio http://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/natlinfo/indicators/methodology_sheets/demographics/dependency_ratio.p
df
37
(Luescher & Shetty, 2013)
38
(Chung & Muntaner, 2007)
39
(Hall & Soskice, 2001)
40
(Hospers & Reverda, 2015)
41
(Hospers & Reverda, 2015, p. 22)
42
(Martinez-Fernandez, et al., 2012, p. 11)
43
(Hospers, 2014)
44
(Beetz, et al., 2008)
45
(Bernt, et al., 2012)
46
(Beetz, et al., 2008)
47
(Bernt, et al., 2012)
48
(Beetz, et al., 2008)
2
105
49
(Beetz, et al., 2008)
(Hospers, 2014)
51
(Bernt, et al., 2012)
52
(Matanle, 2015)
53
(Matanle & Rausch, 2011, p. 435)
54
(Rink, et al., 2012, p. 4)
55
(Galjaard, et al., 2012)
56
(Kwon, 2009)
57
(OECD, 2011)
58
(White, 2015, p. 6)
59
(White, 2015, p. 6)
60
(Singer, 2012, p. 1)
61
(Kwon, 2009)
62
(Adelaja, et al., 2009; Knight Foundation, 2010)
63
(Tennyson, 2015)
64
(Midtkandal & Sorvik, 2012)
65
(Kenyon, et al., 2001)
66
(The Government of the Netherlands, 2015)
67
(Hollander, 2011; Martinez-Fernandez, et al., 2012; Shrink Smart, 2014)
68
(Martinez-Fernandez, et al., 2012)
69
(Hospers & Reverda, 2015; Martinez-Fernandez, et al., 2012)
70
(Hospers & Reverda, 2015)
71
(Kukutai, et al., 2014)
72
(CBC News, 2014; Fitzpatrick, 2012; Kukutai, et al., 2014)
73
Top Gear episode – Burma Special: Supersize Burmese Drag Race - Top Gear - Series 21 - BBC
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8uwTnP8ioiU
74
(da Costa & Meyer, 2013)
75
(The Economist, 2013)
76
(Journeyman Pictures, 2013)
77
(Hospers & Reverda, 2015)
78
(Fol, 2012)
79
(Singer, 2012, p. 4)
80
(UN, 2000, p. 4)
81
(Singer, 2012, p. 4)
82
(Johnsen & Perjo, 2014; UN, 2000)
83
(UN Population Dvision, 2015)
84
(Martinez-Fernandez, 2010, p. 63)
85
(Kenyon, et al., 2001)
86
(Haartsen & Van Wissen, 2012)
87
(Barca, et al., 2012, p. 137)
88
(Barca, et al., 2012, p. 137)
89
(Barca, et al., 2012, p. 137)
90
(Mazurkewich, 2010)
91
(StatisticsNZ, 2007)
92
(Galjaard, et al., 2012, p. 293)
93
(Midmore, et al., 2010)
94
(Midmore, et al., 2010)
95
(Terluin, 2003)
96
(Chesire, 2006)
97
(Hollander, 2011)
98
(Bernt, et al., 2012; Rink, et al., 2012)
99
(Spiller, 2012, p. 11)
100
(Hollander, 2011)
101
(Bernt, et al., 2012; Rink, et al., 2012)
102
(Beckham, 2015)
103
(Johnsen & Perjo, 2014)
50
106
104
(Mazurkewich, 2010)
(Haartsen & Van Wissen, 2012)
106
(Matanle, 2011, p. 89)
107
(Stockdale, et al., 2000)
108
(Midmore, et al., 2010)
109
(Knight Foundation, 2010, p. 2)
110
(Knight Foundation, 2010, p. 4)
111
(Project for Public Spaces, n.d.)
112
(Hollander, 2011)
113
(Hollander, et al., 2009, p. 230)
114
(Besser, 2013)
115
(Kresl & Ietri, 2010, pp. 167-8)
116
(Kresl & Ietri, 2010)
117
(Kresl & Ietri, 2010, p. 165)
118
(Kresl & Ietri, 2010)
119
(Haase, et al. 2012)
120
(Scottish Executive, 2006)
121
(OECD, 2014)
122
(Joint Working Party, 2013; Palmer, et al., 2012)
123
(Beetz, et al., 2008, p. 304)
124
(Dremel, 2013)
125
(Williams, 2013)
126
(Brink, 2013; Healthcare IT news, 2013; Johnsen & Perjo, 2014)
127
(Hollander, et al., 2009)
128
(Hollander, et al., 2009)
129
(Rhodes & Russo, 2013)
130
(Hospers & Reverda, 2015)
131
(Hospers & Reverda, 2015, p. 25)
132
(Hospers & Reverda, 2015)
133
(Hospers & Reverda, 2015)
134
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135
(Singer, 2012, p. 1)
136
(Dreijerink & Kortman, 2012; Matanle, 2015)
137
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138
(Kenyon, et al., 2001)
139
(Hospers, 2014, p. 1511)
140
(Dremel, 2013)
141
(Matanle & Rausch, 2011, p. 26)
142
(RT News, 2012)
143
(Bowden, 2008)
144
(Kenyon, et al., 2001)
145
(The Economist, 2013)
146
(The Economist, 2013)
147
(Forth, 2000)
148
(Boardman, 2008)
149
(Hospers & Reverda, 2015, p. 23)
150
(Beetz, et al., 2008, p. 296)
151
(Kenyon, et al., 2001)
152
(Beetz, et al., 2008)
153
(OECD, 2009, p. 28)
154
(Dremel, 2013)
155
(OECD, 2014, p. 4)
156
(Johnsen & Perjo, 2014)
157
(Galjaard, et al., 2012, p. 293)
158
(Beetz, et al., 2008, p. 307)
159
(Hall & Stern, 2009, p. 75)
105
107
160
(Kenyon, et al., 2001, p. 26)
(OECD, 2014, p. 4)
162
(Kenyon, et al., 2001)
163
(Kenyon, et al., 2001, p. 16)
164
(Dremel, 2013, p. 39)
165
(Morrow, 2011)
166
(Kenyon, et al., 2001, p. 22)
167
(McKinsey & Company, 1994, p. 4)
168
(Kenyon, et al., 2001, p. 21)
169
(Kenyon, et al., 2001, p. 21)
170
(Dremel, 2013)
171
(Project for Public Spaces, n.d.)
172
(Adelaja, et al., 2009)
173
(Nana, 2014)
174
(Spiller, 2012, p. 4)
175
(Nana, 2014)
176
(MBIE, 2014a)
177
(MBIE, 2014a)
178
(Joyce, 2014)
179
(MBIE, 2014)
180
(MBIE, 2014)
181
(Chesire, 2006)
182
(Haartsen & Van Wissen, 2012)
183
(Matanle & Rausch, 2011)
184
(Stockdale, et al., 2000)
185
(Joyce, 2014)
186
(Spiller, 2012)
187
(Martinez-Fernandez, et al., 2012, p. 31)
188
(Chesire, 2006)
189
(Beetz, et al., 2008)
190
(Chesire, 2006)
191
(Matanle & Sato, 2010, p. 57)
192
(Collits, 2012)
193
(Weyman & Martinez-Fernandez, 2012)
194
(Chesire, 2006; Collits, 2002)
195
(Wiechmann & Volkmann, 2012)
196
(Ferry & Vironen, 2011)
197
(Castles & Mitchell, 1992)
198
(Esping-Andersen, 1990)
199
(Chung & Muntaner, 2007)
200
(Mikler & Harrison, 2011, p. 186)
201
(Kwon, 2009, p. 5)
161
108