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The Quickstep Model Hardy Hanappi Ad personam Jean Monnet Chair for Political Economy of European Integration Economics, TU Vienna [email protected] EAEPE Conference 2012 in Cracow Motivation Three Roots of Quickstep The Structure of Quickstep The Role of Simulation and Game Theory Conclusions for European policy Overview Keynes‘ Macroeconomics ◦ Circular flows Marx‘ Political Economy ◦ Exploitation Schumpeters‘ Innovation Idea ◦ Sectoral disequilibrium Three Roots of Quickstep HS HFC HL HFO Monetary flows in a closed economy Keynesian Roots TIME Money Credit Capital Symbol-lead Actions Increase in productivity and welfare Marx‘ Dialectic of Progress Matrix of technical coefficients 𝛼 𝛼 𝛼 𝛼 𝛼 𝛼 𝛼 𝛼 𝛼 𝛽 𝛽 𝛽 𝛽 𝛽 𝛽 𝛽 𝛽 𝛽 𝛽 𝛽 𝛽 Physical World World of Internal Models Schumpeter‘s heterogenous Dynamics Stocks and Flows of Money at Bank Accounts HL 0 iLS ∙ SL HF O 0 iFC ∙ DF iFOS ∙ SFO HF 0 iFCS ∙ SFC C 0 HS iSS ∙ SS iSC ∙ DS 0 0 The Structure of Quickstep 1 Examples 𝐹 𝑅𝑡 + (𝐷𝐵𝑡𝐹 −𝐷𝐵𝑡+1 ) = 𝑃𝑡𝐹𝑂 + 𝑊𝑡𝐿 + 𝑇𝑡𝐹 + 𝑖𝑡𝐹,𝐶 ∙ 𝐷𝐵𝑡𝐹 𝜋𝑡𝐹 𝑖,𝑗 𝑃𝑡𝐹𝑂 ∶= 𝐹 𝐾𝑡 𝜎𝑡𝐹 𝑅𝑡𝐹 − 𝑊𝑡𝐿 ∶= 𝑊𝑡𝐿 𝑘,𝑗 𝑃𝑔𝑚𝑡 ( 𝛼𝑡 , 𝑙𝑡 ) 𝑖,𝑗 𝑘,𝑗 𝑃𝑔𝑚𝑡−1 𝛼𝑡−1 , 𝑙𝑡−1 𝑖𝑓 𝐼𝑛𝑛𝑜𝑡 ≤ 0 = ∗,𝑖,𝑗 ∗,𝑘,𝑗 𝑃𝑔𝑚𝑡∗ 𝛼𝑡 , 𝑙𝑡 𝑖𝑓 𝐼𝑛𝑛𝑜𝑡 > 0 The Structure of Quickstep 2 Exploring Trajecories instead of Discovering Laws Making the Modelling of Internal Modelling explicit Forces to work with Irreversible Time and (Capacity) Limits Enables Changes in the set of Essential Variables The Role of Simulation and Game Theory A very demanding research program! Recent Papers: Can Europe survive? Shangri La Governance Money, Credit, Capital and the State Gramsci meets Veblen: On the search for a new revolutionary class Download: http://www.econ.tuwien.ac.at/hanappi/publications.html Conclusions for European policy Thank you for your attention ! Annual Unemployment Rates 25 percent 20 15 10 France Germany Greece Italy Portugal 5 0 Spain United Kingdom Monthly Unemployment Rates 30 France percent 25 Germany 20 15 Greece 10 Italy 5 Portugal Some data Jan-2007 Aug-2007 Mar-2008 Oct-2008 May-2009 Dec-2009 Jul-2010 Feb-2011 Sep-2011 Apr-2012 0 Spain United Kingdom Growth of Labour Productivity 10 8 6 percent Germany 4 Italy Spain 2 United Kingdom France 0 Log. (Germany) Log. (Spain) -2 -4 Some data Growth of Labour Productivity 9 8 7 percent 6 5 United States 4 Japan G7 countries 3 Log. (United States) 2 Log. (Japan) 1 Log. (G7 countries) 0 -1 Some data 2010 2007 2004 2001 1998 1995 1992 1989 1986 1983 1980 1977 1974 1971 -2 Profit Rates 30.0% 25.0% percent 20.0% Germany France 15.0% UK Italy 10.0% Spain 5.0% 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 0.0% Some data Long-term Interest Rates 18 16 14 percent 12 Germany 10 France 8 United Kingdom Italy 6 Spain 4 2 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 0 Some data Growth of Industrial Production 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% percent 5.0% France Germany 0.0% Greece Italy -5.0% Portugal -10.0% Spain United Kingdom -15.0% -20.0% Some data 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 -25.0% Inflation Rates (CPI) 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% France percent 20.0% Germany Greece 15.0% Italy Portugal 10.0% Spain United Kingdom 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% Some data 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 % of GDP Current Acoount 10 5 0 Germany Greece -5 Italy Portugal -10 Spain United Kingdom -15 France -20 Some data
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