Download Monetary Policy Report July 2010, slides

MPR July
2010
010710
Figure 1.01. Repo rate with uncertainty bands
Per cent, quarterly averages
7
7
90%
75%
50%
Outcome
Forecast
6
5
6
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Note. The uncertainty bands for the repo rate are based on the ability of risk-adjusted market rates to forecast the future repo rate. This uncertainty
band does not take into account the fact that there may be a lower bound for the repo rate. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 1.02. GDP with uncertainty bands
Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
90%
75%
50%
Outcome
Forecast
-4
-6
-4
-6
-8
-8
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Note.The uncertainty band shows the band within which GDP growth is expected to be with a 50%, 75% and 90% probability. There is also
uncertainty for the outcomes for GDP, as the National Accounts figures are revised several years after the preliminary publication. Broken lines
represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.03. CPI with uncertainty bands
Annual percentage change
6
6
90%
75%
50%
Outcome
Forecast
5
4
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Note. The uncertainty band shows the band within which inflation is expected to be with a 50%, 75% and 90% probability. Broken lines represent
the Riksbank’s forecast.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.04. CPIF with uncertainty bands
Annual percentage change
4
4
90%
75%
50%
Outcome
Forecast
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Note. The uncertainty band shows the band within which inflation is expected to be with a 50%, 75% and 90% probability. The uncertainty regarding
the CPIF forecast is based on the Riksbank's forecast errors for the CPIX during the period 1999 until the introduction of published CPIF forecasts
in 2008, with an adjustment for the fact that the CPIF and the CPIX have varied to different degrees. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s
forecast.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.05. World GDP
Annual percentage change
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
70
75
80
Note. Striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
85
90
95
00
05
10
Sources: IMF and the Riksbank
Figure 1.06. General government financial balance
Per cent of GDP
25
2007
2008
2009
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
Sw
en
d
e
ro
Eu
ea
r
a
SA
U
d
te
i
n
U
m
ny
o
a
d
m
ng
er
i
G
K
ce
n
a
Fr
in
a
Sp
ay
w
or
N
d
an
l
Ice
ce
e
re
G
Sources: OECD and Statistics Sweden
Figure 1.07. GDP and leading indicators for the
OECD area
Annual percentage change
6
12
5
10
4
8
3
6
2
4
1
2
0
0
-1
-2
-2
-4
-3
-6
-4
-8
GDP (left scale)
-5
-10
Leading indicator (right scale)
-6
-12
00
01
02
Note. OECD Composite Leading Indicators
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Source: OECD
Figure 1.08. Development of GDP in different regions and
countries
Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally
adjusted data
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
-8
-8
-10
Sweden
-10
-12
Euro area
-12
-14
USA
-14
-16
-16
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the
Figure 1.09. Comparison of recovery following various
recessions, GDP USA
GDP level, Index = 100 in the quarter preceding the beginning of the
recession
116
116
2007Q4
114
2001Q1
114
112
1990Q3
112
1973Q4
110
110
M ean (fom 1947)
108
108
106
106
104
104
102
102
100
100
98
98
96
96
94
94
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Note. Broken line represents the Riksbank’s forecast. Legends denote
the quarter in which the index = 100. X axis: number
of quarters. Cyclical dating according to NBER.
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysisand the Riksbank
Figure 1.10. GDP
Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms,
seasonally-adjusted data
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
April
-15
July
-20
-20
00
01
02
03
04
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.11. Comparison of recovery in Sweden,
the euro area and USA
GDP level, index 2007 quarter 4 = 100
110
110
USA
108
108
Euro area
106
106
Sweden
104
104
102
102
100
100
98
98
96
96
94
94
92
92
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Note. The quarter prior to the recession breaking out in the USA = 100. Broken lines rpresent the Riksbank's forecast.
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, SCB and the Riksbank
Figure 1.12. TCW-weighted exchange rate
Index, 18.11.92 = 100
160
160
Outcome
July
April
155
155
150
150
145
145
140
140
135
135
130
130
125
125
120
120
04
05
06
07
08
09
Note. Outcome data are daily rates and forecasts are quarterly averages.
Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
10
11
12
13
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 1.13. Swedish exports and the world market
for Swedish exports
Annual percentage change
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
Swedish exports
-15
-15
Swedish export market
-20
-20
80
85
90
95
Note. The points refer to the Riksbank's forecast for the whole year.
00
05
10
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.14. Gross fixed capital formation
Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms,
seasonally-adjusted data
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10
-10
-20
-20
-30
-30
April
-40
-40
July
-50
-50
04
05
06
07
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
08
09
10
11
12
13
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.15. Investment ratio
Per cent of GDP, current prices
24
24
22
22
20
20
18
18
16
16
14
14
80
82 84
86 88
90
92 94
96 98
00
02 04
Note. Four-quarter moving average. Points represent the Riksbank's forecast for the whole year.
06 08
10 12
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 1.16. Household's consumption
Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms,
seasonally-adjusted data
8
8
April
6
July
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
-8
-8
04
05
06
Note. Seasonally adjusted by the Riksbank.
Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.17. Households’ disposable incomes, consumption
and saving ratio
Annual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage of disposable
income
8
7
16
Consumption (left scale)
Disposable income (left scale)
Saving ratio (right scale)
14
6
12
5
10
4
8
3
6
2
4
1
2
0
0
-1
-2
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Note. Broken lines and striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.18. Labour force and number of employed
Thousands, seasonally-adjusted data
5200
5200
Employed, 16-64 years
Employed, 15-74 years
5000
5000
Labour force, 16-64 years
Labour force, 15-74 years
4800
4800
4600
4600
4400
4400
4200
4200
4000
4000
3800
3800
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
Note. Pre-1993 data has been linked by the Riksbank. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast, 15-74 year.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.19. Unemployment
Percentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
Unemployment, 16-64 years
Unemployment, 15-74 years
July
April
2
0
4
2
0
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
Note. Pre-1993 data has been spliced by the Riksbank. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast, 15-74 years.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.20. Resource utilisation indicator
Standard deviations
2,0
2,0
1,5
1,5
1,0
1,0
0,5
0,5
0,0
0,0
-0,5
-0,5
-1,0
-1,0
-1,5
-1,5
-2,0
-2,0
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.21. Estimated gaps
Percentage deviation from the HP trend
5
5
GDP
4
Hours worked
4
3
Employment
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
-5
-5
-6
-6
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
Note. These gaps should not be interpreted as the Riksbank's overall assesment of resource utilisation. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s
forecast.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.22. Employment and labour force participation rates
Employment and labour force as a percentage of the population, 16-64 year,
seasonally-adjusted data
86
Employment rate, April
Employment rate, July
Labour force participation rate, April
Labour force participation rate, July
84
86
84
82
82
80
80
78
78
76
76
74
74
72
72
70
70
80
85
90
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
95
00
05
10
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.23. Unit labour costs for the economy as a
whole
Annual percentage change, fixed prices and per cent of disposable
income
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
Productivity
Labour cost per hour
Unit labour cost
-2
-2
-3
-3
94
96
98
00
02
04
Note. Broken lines and striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
06
08
10
12
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.24. CPI
Annual percentage change
5
5
April
4
4
July
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
04
05
06
07
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
08
09
10
11
12
13
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.25. CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding energy
Annual percentage change
5
5
CPI
CPIF
CPIF excluding energy
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
00
01
02
03
04
Note. CPIF is CPI with a fixed mortgage interest rate.
Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.26. Oil price, Brent crude
USD per barrel
140
140
Outcome
Futures up to and including 2010-06-23
120
120
Futures, April
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
00
01
02
03
04
Note. Futures are calculated as a 15-day average.
Outcomes represent monthly averages of spot prices.
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank
Figure 1.27. HICP in the euro area and in Sweden
Annual percentage change
5
5
Sweden
Euro area
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Sources: Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 1.28. Repo rate
Per cent, quarterly averages
5,0
5,0
April
4,5
July
4,5
4,0
4,0
3,5
3,5
3,0
3,0
2,5
2,5
2,0
2,0
1,5
1,5
1,0
1,0
0,5
0,5
0,0
0,0
00
01
02
03
04
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 1.29. Real repo rate
Per cent, quarterly averages
3
3
April
July
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Note. The real repo rate is calculated as an average of the Riksbank’s repo rate forecasts for the coming
year minus the inflation forecast (CPIF) for the corresponding period. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s
13
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 2.01. GDP abroad
TCW-weighted, quarterly changes in per cent calculated in
annualised terms
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
-8
-8
M ain scenario
Public finances crisis in the euro area
-10
-10
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
09
10
11
12
13
Sources: National sources and the Riksbank
Figure 2.02. CPI abroad
TCW-weighted, annual percentage change
4,0
4,0
3,5
3,5
3,0
3,0
2,5
2,5
2,0
2,0
1,5
1,5
1,0
1,0
0,5
0,5
0,0
0,0
M ain scenario
-0,5
-0,5
Public finances crisis in the euro area
-1,0
-1,0
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
09
10
11
12
13
Sources: National sources and the Riksbank
Figure 2.03. Interest rate abroad
TCW-weighted, per cent
5,0
5,0
M ain scenario
4,5
Public finances crisis in the euro area
4,5
4,0
4,0
3,5
3,5
3,0
3,0
2,5
2,5
2,0
2,0
1,5
1,5
1,0
1,0
0,5
0,5
0,0
0,0
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
09
10
11
12
13
Sources: National sources and the Riksbank
Figure 2.04. GDP
Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms
8
8
4
4
0
0
-4
-4
-8
-8
-12
-12
Public finances crisis in the euro area
M ain scenario
-16
-16
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.Sources:
11
12
13
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.05. Hours gap
Percentage deviation from HP-trend
4
4
Public finances crisis in the euro area
M ain scenario
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.Sources:
08
09
10
11
12
13
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.06. CPIF
Annual percentage change, quarterly averages
4,0
4,0
Public finances crisis in the euro area
M ain scenario
3,5
3,5
3,0
3,0
2,5
2,5
2,0
2,0
1,5
1,5
1,0
1,0
0,5
0,5
0,0
0,0
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.Sources:
11
12
13
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.07. CPI
Annual percentage change, quarterly averages
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
Public finances crisis in the euro area
M ain scenario
-2
-2
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.Sources:
11
12
13
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.08. Repo rate
Per cent, quarterly averages
5,0
5,0
M ain scenario
4,5
Public finances crisis in the euro area
4,5
4,0
4,0
3,5
3,5
3,0
3,0
2,5
2,5
2,0
2,0
1,5
1,5
1,0
1,0
0,5
0,5
0,0
0,0
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
09
10
11
12
13
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 2.09. Exchange rate, TCW
Index, 18.11.1992 = 100, quarterly averages
150
150
Public finances crisis in the euro area
M ain scenario
145
145
140
140
135
135
130
130
125
125
120
120
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
09
10
11
12
13
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 2.10. Hours gap
Percentage deviation from HP-trend
4
4
Higher domestic demand
M ain scenario
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.11. GDP
Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms
8
8
4
4
0
0
-4
-4
-8
-8
-12
-12
Higher domestic demand
M ain scenario
-16
-16
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.Sources:
11
12
13
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.12. CPIF
Annual percentage change, quarterly averages
4,0
4,0
Higher domestic demand
3,5
3,5
M ain scenario
3,0
3,0
2,5
2,5
2,0
2,0
1,5
1,5
1,0
1,0
0,5
0,5
0,0
0,0
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.Sources:
11
12
13
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.13. Repo rate
Per cent, quarterly averages
5,0
5,0
M ain scenario
4,5
4,5
Higher domestic demand
4,0
4,0
3,5
3,5
3,0
3,0
2,5
2,5
2,0
2,0
1,5
1,5
1,0
1,0
0,5
0,5
0,0
0,0
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
09
10
11
12
13
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 2.14. CPI
Annual percentage change, quarterly averages
5
5
Higher domestic demand
4
4
M ain scenario
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.Sources:
11
12
13
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.15. Exchange rate, TCW
Index, 18.11.1992 = 100, quarterly averages
150
150
Higher domestic demand
M ain scenario
145
145
140
140
135
135
130
130
125
125
120
120
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
09
10
11
12
13
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 2.16. Repo rate assumptions
Per cent, quarterly averages
5,0
5,0
M ain scenario
Lower interest rate
Higher interest rate
4,5
4,0
4,5
4,0
3,5
3,5
3,0
3,0
2,5
2,5
2,0
2,0
1,5
1,5
1,0
1,0
0,5
0,5
0,0
0,0
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.
09
10
11
12
13
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 2.17. GDP
Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms
8
8
4
4
0
0
-4
-4
-8
-8
Lower interest rate
Higher interest rate
M ain scenario
-12
-12
-16
-16
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.Sources:
11
12
13
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.18. Hours gap
Percentage deviation from HP-trend
4
4
Lower interest rate
Higher interest rate
M ain scenario
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.Sources:
08
09
10
11
12
13
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.19. Production gap (GDP)
Percentage deviation from HP-trend
5
5
Lower interest rate
Higher interest rate
M ain scenario
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
-5
-5
-6
-6
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.Sources:
08
09
10
11
12
13
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.20. CPI
Annual percentage change, quarterly averages
5
5
Lower interest rate
Higher interest rate
M ain scenario
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.Sources:
11
12
13
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 2.21. CPIF
Annual percentage change, quarterly averages
4
4
Lower interest rate
Higher interest rate
M ain scenario
4
4
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.Sources:
11
12
13
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 3.01. Central banks’ balance sheet totals
Per cent of GDP
30
30
The Riksbank
ECB
25
25
Bank of England
Federal Reserve
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
Jan-07
0
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Office for National Statistics, Statistics sweden and the respective central
Figure 3.02. Government bond rates in various
countries
Percentage points
14
14
Sweden
USA
United Kingdom
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Spain
12
10
8
12
10
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
06
07
08
09
Note. Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity.
10
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure 3.03. Difference between intebank rates and
expected monetary policy (Basis spread)
Basis points
400
400
Sweden
350
300
350
Euro area
USA
300
United Kingdom
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Note. The spread is calculated as the difference between the three-month
Sources:
interbank rate and the three-month overnight index swap.
Jan-10
Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
Figure 3.04. Stock market movements
Index, 4-1-1999 = 100
220
220
Sweden (OM XS)
Euro area (Euro Stoxx)
200
200
USA (S&P 500)
180
180
160
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure 3.05. Money Supply
Annual percentage change
25
25
The general public's holding of banknotes and coins
M2
M3
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 3.06. Monetary policy expectations in the
euro area and the USA
Per cent
6
6
FED funds
FED funds 2010-06-23
FED funds 2010-04-12
ECB refi rate
ECB refi rate 2010-06-23
ECB refi rate 2010-04-12
5
4
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
Figure 3.07. Monetary policy expectations in
Sweden according to money market participants
Per cent
5
5
Repo rate
Forward rate 2010-04-12
Forward rate 2010-06-23
Survey, Prospera average, 2010-05-26
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Sources: Reuters EcoWin, TNS SIFO Prospera and the Riksbank
Figure 3.08. Average deviations between forward
rates and the whole repo rate path
Basis points
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20
-40
-40
-60
-60
-80
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
-80
Jul-10
Sources: Reuters Ecowin and the Riksbank
Figure 3.09. Indicative real policy rate expectations
in Sweden, the United States and the euro area
Per cent
3
3
Real repo rate
The Riksbank, July
Sweden
Euro area
USA
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Sources: ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philiadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters,
Reuters EcoWin, TNS Sifo Prospera and the Riksbank
Figure 3.10. Households' expectations of inflation
one year ahead
Per cent
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 3.11. All respondents' expectations of
inflation one, two and five years ahead
Per cent
4.0
4.0
1 year
2 years
5 years
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Source: TNS SIFO Prospera
Figure 3.12. World Trade Monitor Index
Index, 2000 = 100, seasonally adjusted data
240
240
World trade total
Advanced economies
Emerging economies
220
220
200
200
180
180
160
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
Figure 3.13. GDP in various countries
Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms,
seasonally-adjusted data
12
12
8
8
4
4
0
0
-4
-4
USA
-8
-8
Euro area
Japan
-12
-12
Unted Kingdom
-16
-16
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Cabinet Office Japan Eurostat and Office for National
Figure 3.14. Exports
Index, January 2006 = 10, seasonally-adjusted data
160
160
USA
Euro area
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Eurostat
Figure 3.15. Purchasing manager's index,
manufacturing sector
Index, over 50 indicates growth
70
70
65
65
60
60
55
55
50
50
45
45
40
40
Euro area
Sweden
USA
35
35
30
30
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: Institute for Supply Management, Markit Economics and Swedbank
Figure 3.16. Employment
Index, quarter 1 2006 = 100, seasonally adjusted data
105
105
USA
Euro area
103
103
101
101
99
99
97
97
95
95
93
93
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Eurostat
Figure 3.17. Consumer prices
Annual percentage change
6
6
USA
5
5
Euro area
United Kingdom
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat and Office for National Statistics
Figure 3.18. CPI excluding energy and food
Annual percentage change
3.5
3.5
USA
3.0
3.0
Euro area
United Kingdom
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.5
-0.5
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat and Office for National Statistics
Figure 3.19. The Economic Tendency Indicator
Index, mean = 100, standard deviation = 10
115
115
110
110
105
105
100
100
95
95
90
90
85
85
80
80
The Economic Tendency Indicator
M ean
+/ - one standard deviation
75
75
70
70
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 3.20. Industrial production and the
production of services
Index, 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted data
130
130
Industrial production
120
120
Production of services
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.21. Confidence indicators for households
Net figures
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20
-40
-40
-60
M acro index (Sweden's economy)
M icro index (own finances)
-60
Households confidence indicator
-80
-80
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 3.22. Households' consumption of retail
goods and cars
Index 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted data
130
130
Households' consumption of retail sales
New passenger car registration
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.23. Bank lending to companies and
households
Annual percentage change
20
20
Companies
Households
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 3.24. Real house prices in Sweden and
abroad
Index, 1980 = 100
400
400
Sweden
Norge
Finland
United Kingdom
USA
Spain
Irland
350
300
250
350
300
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
80
84
88
92
96
00
04
08
Sources: BIS, Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
Figure 3.25. Gross fixed capital formation
Annual percentage change
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
Housing
-20
-20
Public authorities
-25
-25
Business sector excluding
housing
-30
00
01
02
03
04
-30
05
06
07
08
09
10
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.26. Capital utilisation in industry
Per cent, seasonally adjusted data
95
95
90
90
85
85
80
80
75
75
Statistics Sweden, actual capacity utilisation
NIER, current capacity utilisation
70
70
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.27. Foreign trade with goods
Index, 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted data
120
120
Export of goods
Import of goods
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
80
84
88
Note. Three-month moving averages.
92
96
00
04
08
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 3.28. New export orders
Net figures and annual percentage change
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
-40
-20
Orders, NIER (net figures)
-40
Orders, Statistics Sweden (annual percentage change)
-60
-60
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.29. Employment, labour force and
unemployment
Thousands and percentage of the labour force, seasonally adjusted
data
5000
10
4800
8
4600
6
4400
4
4200
2
Employed (left)
Labour force (left)
Unemployment (right)
4000
0
01
02
03
Note. Three-month moving averages.
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 3.30. New and unfilled vacant jobs and
redundancy notices
Thousands, seasonally adjusted data
100
20
New vacancies (left scale)
Unfilled vacancies (left scale)
Redundancy notices (right scale)
80
16
60
12
40
8
20
4
0
0
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Source: Employment service and the Riksbank
Figure 3.31. Employees in the business sector,
expectations and outcome
Seasonally adjusted net figures
30
30
Expectations
20
20
Outcome
10
10
0
0
-10
-10
-20
-20
-30
-30
-40
-40
-50
-50
-60
-60
01
02
03
04
05
06
Note. Expectations are time displaced 3 months
Sources:
ahead to the period they concern.
07
08
09
10
National Institute of Economic Research
Figure 3.32. Wages in the business sector and the
public sector
Annual percentage change
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
Construction sector
Service sector
Industry
Public authorities
2
2
1
1
00
01
02
03
Note. Three-month moving average.
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: National Mediation Office and the Riksbank
Figure 3.33. CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding energy
Annual percentage change
5
5
CPI
CPIF
CPIF excluding energy
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.34. Prices of goods and services in the
CPI
Annual percentage change
4
4
Services (43.5 % )
Goods excluding energy and food (26.3 % )
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Note. The weight of the CPI in the respective components is given in brackets.Source:
10
Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.35. Food prices in different parts of the
retail chain
Annual percentage change
14
70
Foods in the CPI (left scale)
12
60
Producer prices for foods in the domestic supply (ITPI)
(left scale)
Foods in the world market, the Economist’s commodity
price index for foods, SEK (right scale)
10
50
8
40
6
30
4
20
2
10
0
0
-2
-10
-4
-20
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: The Economist and Statistics Sweden
Figure 3.36. Different measures of underlying
inflation
Annual percentage change
5
5
CPIF
UND24
CPIF excluding energy
4
4
TRIM 85
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure B1. How fiscal unease can
spread inside and between countries
Domestic
PUBLIC
SECTOR
1. Fall in market value of
government bonds
3. Impaired confidence in
government
guarantees/ programmes
PUBLIC
SECTOR
COM PANIES
AND
HOUSEHOLDS
BANKS
6. Reduced support for
foreign subsidiaries and
branches
5. Increased
pressure on other
indebted
participants
International
4. Tighter credit granting
2. Increased loan
costs
12. Reduced
demand
8. Increased counterparty risk
between banks and possible
financing difficulties
7. Fall in market value
of government bonds
10. Contagion in accordance
with 1-3 above
9. Changes in share prices,
exchange rates, other asset
prices
COM PANIES
AND
HOUSEHOLDS
BANKS
11. Tighter credit granting
Figure B2. Difference in 10 year bond rates against
Germany
Percentage points
11
10
9
8
7
11
Greece
Sweden
Italy
Ireland
Portugal
Spain
10
9
8
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Figure B3. House prices and bank lending to
households
Annual percentage change
16
16
Property prices
Bank lending
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure B4. Two measures of labour productivity in
Sweden
Annual percentage change
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
Output per employee
Output per hour worked
-6
-6
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Souces: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure B5. The link between average productivity growth
during a period with weak productivity and average
productivity growth during the year following such a period
Annual percentage change
4.0
Average productivity growth (subsequent period)
Asia crisis
y = -1.16x + 2.75
R2 = 0.66
3.5
OPEC I
1977-1978
3.0
1984-1986
OPEC II
Average
1990s crisis
2.5
1994-1996
2.0
ICT crisis
1.5
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Average productivity growth (period with weak productivity)
Source: The Riksbank
Figure B6. A comparison between five periods (and an
average period) with weak labour productivity (output per
employee) in Sweden
Annual percentage change
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
Financial crisis
OPEC I
OPEC II
1990s crisis
ICT crisis
Average (previous crises)
-4
-4
-6
-6
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Sources: OECD and the Riksbank
Figure B7. CPI and GDP. Outcome and forecasts
from the Monetary Policy Report in February 2009
Annual percentage change
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
CPI
GDP
-1
-2
-1
-2
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure B8. Repo rate and mortgage interest costs,
outcome, forecast and forward projection
Per cent and annual percentage change respectively
5
50
4
40
3
30
2
20
1
10
0
0
-1
-10
-2
-20
-3
-30
Repo rate (left scale)
-4
-40
M ortgage interest costs (6,2 % ) (right scale)
-5
-50
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
18
20
Sources: The Riksbank and Statistics Sweden
Figure B9. CPI and CPIF, outcomes, forecasts and
forward projections
Annual percentage change
5
5
CPI
CPIF
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
18
20
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A1. Repo rate forecast
Per cent, quarterly average values
Repo rate
Source: The Riksbank
Q 2 2010
0.25
Q 3 2010
0.5 (0.4)
Q4 2010
0.9 (0.7)
Q 3 2011
2.1 (2.0)
Q 3 2012
3.1 (3.5)
Q 3 2013
3.8
Table A2. Inflation, annual average
Annual percentage change
2009
-0.3 (-0.3)
2010
1.2 (1.1)
2011
2.0 (2.1)
2012
2.4 (2.9)
CPIF
1.9 (1.9)
2.0 (2.0)
1.4 (1.3)
1.6 (1.8)
CPIF excl. energy
2.3 (2.3)
1.6 (1.6)
1.5 (1.4)
1.7 (1.8)
HICP
1.9 (1.9)
1.9 (2.0)
1.1 (1.1)
1.4 (1.6)
CPI
Note. CPIF is CPI with fixed interest rate. HICP is an EU harmonised index of consumer prices
which does not include household mortgage costs.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A3. Summary of financial
forecasts
Annual average, per cent, unless otherwise specified
Repo rate
10-year rate
Exchange rate, TCW-index, 1992-1118=100
General government net lending*
* Per cent of GDP
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
2009
0.7 (0.7)
3.3 (3.3)
2010
0.5 (0.4)
3.0 (3.5)
2011
1.9 (1.8)
3.5 (4.0)
2012
3.0 (3.3)
4.1 (4.4)
140.2 (140.2)
131.0 (128.9)
125.0 (126.0)
124.1 (126.4)
-1.0 (-0.8)
-0.5 (-1.2)
0.5 (0.0)
1.1 (1.0)
Table A4. International conditions
Annual percentage change
GDP
2009
2010
2011
2012
Euro area
USA
Japan
-4.1 (-4.0)
-2.4 (-2.4)
-5.2 (-5.2)
0.8 (0.9)
3.2 (3.2)
2.8 (1.9)
1.3 (1.6)
3.0 (3.0)
1.8 (2.0)
1.9 (2.2)
2.8 (2.8)
1.7 (1.8)
OECD
-3.3 (-3.4)
2.6 (2.3)
2.5 (2.6)
2.5 (2.7)
TCW-weighted
-3.8 (-3.8)
1.4 (1.3)
1.8 (2.0)
2.0 (2.2)
World
-0.7 (-0.7)
4.2 (4.0)
4.2 (4.2)
4.2 (4.2)
CPI
Euro area (HICP)
USA
Japan
TCW-weighted
Crude oil price, USD/ barrel Brent
Swedish export market
2009
0.3 (0.3)
-0.3 (-0.3)
-1.4 (-1.4)
0.5 (0.5)
2010
1.4 (1.2)
1.9 (1.9)
-0.7 (-1.0)
1.6 (1.4)
2011
1.0 (1.3)
1.7 (1.9)
-0.1 (0.0)
1.2 (1.4)
2012
1.3 (1.7)
2.0 (2.2)
0.3 (0.5)
1.5 (1.8)
2009
62 (62)
-12.6 (-13.2)
2010
77 (82)
5.0 (5.0)
2011
81 (87)
6.9 (7.9)
2012
84 (88)
6.8 (8.2)
Note. The Swedish export market index is calculated as a weighted average of the imports of the 15 countries
which are the largest recipients of Swedish exports. They receive approximately 70 per cent of Swedish exports.
Sources: Eurostat, IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD and the Riksbank
Table A5. GDP by expenditure
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise
specified
Private consumption
Public consumption
Gross fixed capital formation
Inventory investment*
Exports
Imports
GDP
GDP, calendar-adjusted
Final figure for domestic demand*
Net exports*
Current account (NA), per cent of GDP
2009
-0.8 (-0.8)
1.7 (2.1)
-16.0 (-15.3)
-1.5 (-1.5)
-12.4 (-12.5)
-13.2 (-13.4)
-5.1 (-4.9)
-5.1 (-4.7)
-3.1 (-2.8)
-0.5 (-0.5)
7.2 (7.2)
2010
3.5 (2.2)
1.3 (1.0)
2.6 (2.0)
1.2 (1.8)
7.2 (4.0)
8.2 (7.8)
3.8 (2.2)
3.5 (1.8)
2.6 (1.7)
0.1 (-1.3)
6.3 (5.8)
2011
2.4 (2.4)
1.2 (0.6)
6.3 (5.6)
0.4 (0.5)
6.7 (7.5)
6.4 (6.4)
3.6 (3.7)
3.6 (3.7)
2.6 (2.3)
0.6 (0.9)
6.7 (6.4)
*Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points
Note. The figures show actual growth rates that have not been calendar-adjusted, unless otherwise stated.
NA is the National Accounts.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
2012
1.9 (2.0)
0.6 (0.6)
5.7 (6.0)
0.2 (0.0)
6.2 (7.2)
6.0 (6.5)
2.8 (3.1)
3.2 (3.5)
2.1 (2.2)
0.5 (0.8)
6.9 (7.0)
Table A6. Production and employment
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated
Population, aged 16-64
GDP, calendar-adjusted
Number of hours worked, calendar-adjusted
Employed, aged 15-74
Labour force, aged 15-74
Unemployment, aged 15-74 *
2009
0.7 (0.7)
-5.1 (-4.7)
-2.6 (-2.6)
-2.0 (-2.0)
0.2 (0.2)
2010
0.5 (0.5)
3.5 (1.8)
0.6 (0.0)
0.6 (0.2)
1.1 (0.9)
2011
0.2 (0.2)
3.6 (3.7)
1.0 (0.6)
0.9 (0.3)
0.5 (0.0)
2012
0.0 (0.0)
3.2 (3.5)
0.9 (0.8)
0.6 (0.5)
0.2 (0.1)
8.4 (8.4)
8.9 (9.0)
8.5 (8.8)
8.1 (8.4)
* Per cent of labour force
Sources: Employment Service, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A7. Wages and unit labour cost
for the economy as a whole
Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data
Hourly wage, NM O
Hourly wage, NA
Employer’s contribution*
Hourly labour cost, NA
Productivity
Unit labour cost
2009
3.5 (3.4)
2.8 (3.0)
-0.9 (-0.9)
1.9 (2.1)
-2.6 (-2.2)
4.6 (4.4)
2010
2.4 (2.3)
2.0 (2.1)
-0.1 (-0.2)
1.9 (1.9)
2.9 (1.9)
-1.0 (0.0)
2011
2.5 (2.4)
2.7 (2.6)
0.1 (0.1)
2.7 (2.6)
2.6 (3.1)
0.1 (-0.5)
2012
3.0 (2.9)
3.2 (3.1)
0.1 (0.1)
3.3 (3.2)
2.3 (2.7)
0.9 (0.5)
* Contribution to the increase in labour costs, percentage points.
Note. NMO is the National Mediation Office’s short-term wage statistics and NA is the National Accounts. Labour cost per hour
is defined as the sum of actual wages, collective charges and wage taxes divided by the seasonally adjusted total number of hours
worked. Unit labour cost is Defined as labour cost divided by seasonally adjusted value added at constant prices.
Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A8. Alternative scenario with public finances
crisis in the euro area, annual averages
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
2009
Repo rate, per cent
CPIF
CPI
GDP, calendar-adjusted
Hours gap, per cent
Exchange rate, TCW-index, 1992-11-18=100
TCW-weighted interest rate, per cent
TCW-weighted CPI
TCW-weighted GDP
0.7
1.9
-0.3
-5.1
-0.8
140.2
0.7
0.5
-3.8
2010
2011
2012
0.3 (0.5)
0.2 (1.9)
0.9 (3.0)
2.0 (2.0)
1.1 (1.4)
1.5 (1.6)
1.1 (1.2)
0.9 (2.0)
2.0 (2.4)
3.5 (3.5)
2.7 (3.6)
3.0 (3.2)
-0.9 (-0.8)
-1.6 (-0.4)
-1.5 (-0.1)
131.9 (131.0) 131.5 (125.0) 127.7 (124.1)
0.4 (0.5)
0.2 (1.4)
1.2 (2.9)
1.5 (1.6)
0.6 (1.2)
0.7 (1.5)
1.4 (1.4)
0.4 (1.8)
1.8 (2.0)
Note. Hours gap refers to the deviation in the number hours worked from the HP-trend. The main scenario’s forecast in brackets.
Sources: National sources, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A9. Alternative scenario with higher domestic
demand, annual averages
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
2009
Repo rate, per cent
CPIF
CPI
GDP, calendar-adjusted
Hours gap, per cent
Household consumption
Gross fixed capital formation
Exchange rate, TCW-index, 1992-11-18=100
0.7
1.9
-0.3
-5.1
-0.8
-0.8
-16.0
140.2
2010
2011
2012
0.6 (0.5)
2.5 (1.9)
3.7 (3.0)
2.1 (2.0)
1.8 (1.4)
1.8 (1.6)
1.3 (1.2)
2.7 (2.0)
2.8 (2.4)
3.6 (3.5)
4.1 (3.6)
3.5 (3.2)
-0.7 (-0.8)
0.3 (-0.4)
0.8 (-0.1)
3.9 (3.5)
4.6 (2.4)
2.3 (1.9)
2.8 (2.6)
7.1 (6.3)
5.7 (5.7)
130.9 (131.0) 124.5 (125.0) 124.3 (124.1)
Note. Hours gap refers to the deviation in the number hours worked from the HP-trend. The main scenario’s forecast in brackets.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A10. Alternative scenario with higher repo
rate, annual averages
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
Repo rate, per cent
CPIF
CPI
GDP, calendar-adjusted
Real repo rate, per cent
Hours gap, per cent
Production gap (GDP), per cent
2009
2010
2011
2012
0.7
1.9
-0.3
-5.1
-1.0
-0.8
-4.8
0.7 (0.5)
2.0 (2.0)
1.3 (1.2)
3.5 (3.5)
-0.1 (-0.4)
-0.8 (-0.8)
-3.0 (-3.0)
2.1 (1.9)
1.2 (1.4)
1.8 (2.0)
3.3 (3.6)
0.9 (0.8)
-0.7 (-0.4)
-1.7 (-1.3)
2.9 (3.0)
1.5 (1.6)
2.2 (2.4)
3.3 (3.2)
-0.3 (-0.1)
-0.6 (-0.3)
Note. Hours gap refers to the deviation in the number hours worked from the HP-trend. Production gap refers to the deviation in
GDP from the HP-trend The main scenario’s forecast in brackets.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table A11. Alternative scenario with lower repo
rate, annual averages
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified
Repo rate, per cent
CPIF
CPI
GDP, calendar-adjusted
Real repo rate, per cent
Hours gap, per cent
Production gap (GDP), per cent
2009
2010
2011
2012
0.7
1.9
-0.3
-5.1
-1.0
-0.8
-4.8
0.3 (0.5)
2.1 (2.0)
1.1 (1.2)
3.6 (3.5)
-0.7 (-0.4)
-0.8 (-0.8)
-2.9 (-3.0)
1.7 (1.9)
1.6 (1.4)
2.2 (2.0)
3.9 (3.6)
0.6 (0.8)
-0.2 (-0.4)
-1.0 (-1.3)
3.0 (3.0)
1.7 (1.6)
2.7 (2.4)
3.2 (3.2)
0.1 (-0.1)
0.0 (-0.3)
Note. Hours gap refers to the deviation in the number hours worked from the HP-trend. Production gap refers to the deviation in
GDP from the HP-trend The main scenario’s forecast in brackets.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank