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PROBABILITY: The Mathematical Analysis of Chance Processes. Definitions and Notation: W = sample space or outcome space. An event is a subset of W . A random variable is a function \ À W Ä dÞ Chance processes are described and analyzed mathematically using random variables. Discrete Random Variables: \ À W Ä d is a discrete random variable if \ assumes at most countable many values. (The values of X can be listed in a sequence.) :X (x) = T ( \ = B ) is called the probability frequency function or probability mass function for X. J\ (B) = T ( X Ÿ B ) is called the distribution function or cumulative distribution for \ . Note: lim J (B) = 0 , and BÄ -_ lim J (B) = 1 . BÄ _ J is non decreasing and right continuousÞ Expected value of \ = IÐ\Ñ = ! Bk T ( \ = Bk ) = ! Bk :\ (B) œ .\ k k Note: Expected value of g(\ ) = ! g(Bk ) :\ (B) k 2 2 Variance of \ = I (\ .\ )2 = E(\ 2 ) - .\ = 5\ . Standard Deviation of \ = 5\ . Some Important Discrete Random Variables: 1. Geometric: \ = number of independent trials until the first success where : = probability of success on any given trial. p(k) = P(X=k) = (1-p)k-1 p = qk-1 p , k = 1, 2, 3, ... 1 p E(X) = , var(X) = q p2 2. Binomial: X = number of successes in n independent trials where p = probability of success on any given trial. p(k) = P(X=k) = a nk bpk (1-p)n-k , k = 0, 1, 2, ... , n E(X) = np , var(X) = npq 3. Negative Binomial: X = number of independent trials until r successes where p = probability of success on any given trial. ‰ r k-r p(k) = ˆ k-1 r-1 p q E(X) = r p , , k = r , r+1, r+2, ... var(X) = r (1-p) p2 4. Hypergeometric: Draw n balls, without replacement, from a box containing N balls, of which m are white and N-m are black. Let X = number of white balls selected. p(k) = E(X) = 7 ‰ ˆ7 ‰ˆ R85 5 R ˆ8‰ nm N ß 5 œ !ß "ß #ß ÞÞÞ ß 8 , var (X) = N-n N-1 np(1-p) Note: In statistics, the hypergeometric distribution is called "sampling without replacement". 5. Poisson: X = the number of rare events occurring in any fixed interval or region.. p(k) = e- -k k! , k = 0, 1, 2, .... E(X) = - , Var (X) = - Note: For n large and p small , the binomial distribution is approximately a Poisson distribution with - = np .