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YapıKredi Bank Azerbaijan Executive presentation 0 0 February 22, 2013 Content Azerbaijan: The fastest growing economy in the region Azerbaijani Banking System & Business environment YapıKredi Bank Azerbaijan 1 Country Information • Area: 86,600 sq. km. • Population: (2013f) 9.3 million • GDP per capita (2013f): 7,850$ • Life expectancy (2013f): 71.32 • Literacy rate : 99.5 • Capital: Baku • Language: Azeri • Capital: Baku • Other main cities: Ganja, Sumgayit •Currency: Manat (1 USD = AZN 0.78) BBB- 2 BBB- Baa1 Country highlights Economic Growth: Azerbaijan has increased its economic potential since 2006, owing to buoyancy in the oil sector. The country has enjoyed comfortable economic boom following high oil prices. Since 2010 there has been a marked shift in the underlying economic dynamics, with considerable movement toward developing the non-oil sector. The country’s GDP growth averaged 10 per cent between 2007 and 2012. International Relations: Azerbaijan is focused on resolution of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and energy issues. Relations with European countries, which have long-standing economic and other ties will remain strong. Azerbaijan has multilateral diplomatic relationships with United Nations, OSCE, Council of Europe, NATO, European Union, OIC, GUAM, UNESCO, OAS. Azerbaijan was elected as one of the members of the Human Rights Council established by General Assembly. Political Stability: President Ilham Aliyev avails power as the country’s higher executive authority. He will remain in the office until the president elections, October 2013. Inflation: 12-month inflation has declined sharply in 2012, to 1.1%, mainly driven by a fall in global food prices. Exchange Rate: Manat has been stable, having slow appreciating trend against US dollar last years in nominal terms. In 2012 is was at around 0.78. 3 National Accounts Real GDP Growth 10.8 5.0 9.3 6.2 1.1 3.5 1.2 0.1 2008a 2009a 2010a 2011a 2.1 1.5 2012a 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 99.7 2008 2008 145 2015 2016 119.6 123 127.1 109.9 116.9 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 13,320 13,570 14,150 14,470 GDP per head (US$ at PPP) 11,360 139.2 134.3 12,360 2009 12,990 13,120 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Azerbaijan's government finances are solid. The assets of SOFAZ accounted for USD 34.1 billion as of 2013, January 1. 2017f GDP (US$ bn at PPP) 157 2017 14,870 15,880 2016 The remarkable growth performance over 2006-2012 reflects gains in term of trade and an improvement in macroeconomic management, notably on the fiscal front. 2017 Source: Economist Intelligence Unit 4 GDP per head at market exchange rates amounted US$ 6,627 in 2012, behind Russia (US$ 13,130) and Kazakhstan (US$ 10,982) in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Per capita GDP increased from 11.3 thousand US dollars in 2008 to 13.3 thousand dollars in 2012 which is quite very high for a transition country. The authorities will continue to pursue policies aimed at diversifying the economy away from its reliance on oil, with only limited success. National Accounts GDP share in South Caucasus (%) Armenia One of the important objectives facing Azerbaijan is to boost the economic development of rural areas and to improve the agricultural output at previous levels. 12% Georgia 17% Azerbaijan % share in Total GDP 71% 0% 20% 40% 60% Stock of FDI, US$ bln 14.9 10.3 11.7 13.2 2011a 2012a 2013f 2014f Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 16,453 80% 20.9 18.9 16.9 2015f 2016f FDI flows to Azerbaijan are dominated by oil and gas sectors 2017f 17,146 15,132 15,040 10,175 7,608 6,672 6,665 5,074 3,342 33.7 2008a 29 23 2009a 2010a 29.7 2011a 12.7 2012b 10.8 2013c Source: Economist Intelligence Unit 5 2014c 2015c 16.6 4.2 7 9.9 2016c 2017c Economic outlook (Oil & Gas Sector) • Crude oil reserves ~6 bln. Barrels (Jan. 2013) • Largest field is ACG field ~ 80% of total oil output (~4.8 bln barrels of reserves) • ACG field is operated by AIOC, a consortium of 10 petroleum companies (incl. SOCAR) led by BP • Country’s profit share in ACG project estimated to be $200 bln (lifetime 2004-2025). •In 2012 production slightly decreased for technical reasons. • There are 3 export pipelines, but most ( 80%) is exported via BTC pipeline. •Natural gas is mainly produced in two offshore fields, the ACG and Shah Deniz •Proven gas reserves of ~30 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) as of Jan.2011 (~ 849.5 billion cu m ) •Total recently discovered gas in Absheron field with estim. several trillion cubic feet of gas reserves. •Shah Deniz is expected to have a peak capacity of 560 Bcf in addition to the 315 Bcf in Phase1, making it one of the largest gas development projects in the world. It is expected to start producing in 2017 and will eventually supply European markets with natural gas. 6 Population Population by age group (BOP/THS) Age group Total 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 8032.8 8447.4 8997.6 9111.1 9235.1 0-14 2545.6 2198.1 2030.7 2032.4 2052.5 15-24 1464.1 1737.5 1844.4 1821.8 1789.0 25-59 3603.6 3964.4 4587.5 4729.4 4862.3 419.5 547.4 535.0 527.5 531.3 59+ 10000.0 64+ 25-64 5000.0 15-24 0-14 0.0 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2011 2012 2013 Personal disposable income (US$ bn) 25.7 27 28.4 Household consumption (US$ bn) 24.9 26.3 28.6 Household consumption per head (US$) 2,730 2,840 3,060 Exports of goods & services (% change) 1.0 1.7 2.6 Imports of goods & services (% change) 2.5 1.5 2.3 7 Despite all the positive results reached to macroeconomic stability in Azerbaijan, there are still a number of problems to be tackled like the improvement of the economic and social situation of the population, the heterogeneous distribution of incomes, and the diversification of the economic structure. As a result of rapid economic growth, nominal incomes of the population increased by 7.6 times, from USD 5.09 billion in 2000 to USD 39.0 billion in 2012. In average percentage, this is more than 3 times higher than average inflation on the same period. Multinationals and the largest local companies 8 Agenda Azerbaijan: The fastest growing economy in the region Azerbaijani Banking System & Business environment YapıKredi Bank Azerbaijan 9 General information on banks 2010 Number of banks state banks (The International Bank of Azerbaijan) private banks Number of bank branches **** Number of bank divisions Bank assets (mln USD) * Loans (mln USD) ** Household loans (mln USD) Household savings (mln USD) Capital (Gross - mln USD) *** 2011 2012 45 1 44 644 120 44 1 43 666 161 43 1 42 643 163 16,657 11,244 3,384 3,797 2,378 18,129 12,208 4,215 5,238 2,398 21,428 15,341 5,124 9,464 3,144 * IBA is the biggest bank with more than 35 per cent of the market share * Top five banks account for 65 percent of the sector in terms of asset size, while top ten make 79 per cent ** Financial penetration accounts for 23 per cent of the GDP (2012) ** Financial penetration accounts for 65 of non-oil GDP (2012) *** Minimum regulatory capital to be raised fivefold to 50 mln AZN from 2014, while now is 10 mln AZN ****Kapital Bank has the biggest branch network with 89 branches In terms of assets, over 2012, the banking sector grew by 18%, from USD 18.1 billion to USD 21.4 billion. We accounted for 1.36% of market share in 2012, ranking 18th in terms of assets. 10 Main Taxes Corporate taxation Azerbaijani legal entities are subject to a profit tax of 20% on their worldwide income. Nonresidents are taxed on Azerbaijan-source income at the same rate. Profit tax is imposed on a company’s operating profits, computed as the difference between total taxable income and deductible expenses. Companies operating in the oil and gas sector are mainly governed by PSAs and HGAs. Dividend withholding tax Dividends received Azerbaijani companies and permanent establishments of foreign companies located in Azerbaijan are only subject to withholding tax at a rate of 10% VAT taxes The standard VAT rate is 18%, although some transactions are exempt (e.g. financial services) or zero-rated. VAT in Azerbaijan is similar to that in most European VAT systems, with tax levied on the supply of most goods and services, and the import of goods. VAT payers are entitled to recover the amount of VAT paid on purchases (input VAT) that exceeds the VAT received from their taxable supplies (output VAT). Simplified tax The simplified tax rate is 4% and 2% of gross revenue for Baku and the surrounding regions, respectively. Persons with a turnover less than AZN 120,000 in the period of 12 months have a right to register as simplified taxpayers. Individual income tax Rates are progressive up to 25%. Up to 2,500 AZN, the rate is 14% and over 2,500 is 25% (350AZN + 25% of the amount exceeding 2,500 AZN). There is also 3% withheld from the gross salary of the employee for The State Protection Fund. Social taxes An employer is required to make contributions to the State Social Protection Fund on behalf of its employees on the of 22%. 11 Business climate (SWOT) Strengths * Attractive natural resource endowment * Geographical location * Stable macroeconomic situation * Growing economy * Political stability * Competitive labor costs Weaknesses * Shadow Economy * Difficult business environment (monopolies, oligopolies, weak legal system, unofficial payments) * Economy’s dependence on energy sector. * Underdevelopment of non-oil sector Opportunities * Potential to become regional economic and financial centre * Diversification of economy (non-oil sector) * New oil & gas discoveries (In Nov., 2010 new gas field “Umid” was discovered, est. reserves: 200 bln m3, estim. revenue $30-40 bln ) Threats * Escalation of Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict * Volatility of oil prices * Oil reserves might be less that reported 12 Agenda Azerbaijan: The fastest growing economy in the region Azerbaijani Banking System & Business environment YapıKredi Bank Azerbaijan 13 Brief history 1998 1998/11 2000/01 2001 2002/05 2005/09 2007/02 2008/02 2008/07 2008/08 2009/01 2009/12 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013/04 2013/05 Kocbank Azerbaijan CJSC was established Applied to National Bank of Azerbaijan for Banking License Banking license was issued by National Bank of Azerbaijan Merging protocol was signed between Koc Group and Unicredit Group Establishment of Koc Financial Services (KFS): Partnership Agreement was signed between Koc Group and Unicredit Group with the partnership of %50 each Koc Financial Services acquired YapiKredi Bank A.S. The name of KocBank Azerbaijan was changed as YapiKredi Bank Azerbaijan CJSC YapiKredi Invest Azerbaijan LLC was established New Head Office building was opened in Baku First branch out of Baku opened in Ganja city 5th branch, named Azadlıg, was opened in Baku. Two new branches, named Sabail and Ahmedli opened Sumgayit Branch opened Babek Branch opened Dernegul and Nerimanov Branches opened and number of branches reached to 11 (+1). Worldcard brand introduced in Azerbaijan Start of expanding Retail Banking Business J. Jabbarli, M. Acami Branches opened. Babek Plaza Branch opened and number of branches reached to 14 (+1). 14 Key Financial Information 15 Geographical Presence and Future Expansion Plan Current positions Possible future sites 16 Other Projects Retail Banking Business Expansion • A greater concentration on retail development • Competitive environment analysis and overall retail business improvements • Improving ADC and Increasing branch network • High Level Positioning YapiKredi Banking Academy • YapiKredi Banking Academy was established in Azerbaijan in 2012 • Yapi Kredi Turkey’s Academy supports and maintains its activity • Focused to enhance competency levels to enhance quality and sales potential • Other trainings and classes on various issues 17 Cards Payment Systems-World World Loyalty Program has been introduced in the market in September 2012. In 9 months; • 40K Worldcards were sold (7% MS) which placed Yapi Kredi as the 3th biggest player in the market. • 1.270 POS terminals were deployed which placed Yapi Kredi as 1st in loyalty POS terminal market. 18 Services Lending Cash-in-Transit Service Project and Investment Financing Safe-deposit boxes Deposits Cheques Fund Management Services Statements Trade Finance Instruments Brokerage through YK Invest Azerbaijan POS Terminals Plastic Cards (World Card brand just launched) ATM Money Order Service 19 YapiKredi Bank Azerbaijan is an excellent choice for International Customers for several reasons : Wide correspondent banking network Leading banking experience Professionalism of Yapikredi Many foreign companies in portfolio Strength of UCI Network Wide range of Product Memberships AMCHAM (American Chamber of Commerce Azerbaijan) Azerbaijan Banks Association AZIPS (Azerbaijan Interbank Payment System) SWIFT Western Union Baku Interbank Currency Exchange Baku Stock Exchange through YK Invest Azerbaijan National Confederation of Entrepreneurs of Azerbaijan Master Card ATIB (Azeri-Turkish Businessmen Association) Azericard Bloomberg Reuters 21