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Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology Center of Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology – CEDIM Kathrin Poser, Friedemann Wenzel and CEDIM members Vulnerability and disaster risk mapping workshop Copenhagen, 02.07.2009 KIT – Die Kooperation von Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbH und Universität Karlsruhe (TH) Overview Who we are What we do • Risk Map Germany • Megacity Istanbul • Natural disasters under climate change • Global earthquake model Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology CEDIM History Interdisciplinary research centre dedicated to fundamental and applied research in the field of disaster management Founded in 2002 as a cooperation between the University of Karlsruhe and the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) Joined in 2007 by Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe More than 30 scientist from 15 different research units Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology CEDIM Mission • To advance the science of natural and man-made hazards assessment and develop disaster management solutions for early detection and reduction of risk • create scientific knowledge, technologies and intelligent tools for risk assessment and analysis, risk management and risk communication • co-operate closely with national risk and crisis managing agencies • contribute to key international challenges such as the impact of disasters on megacities and under climate change conditions • communicate experience into the academic sector with the aim of mainstreaming disaster risk reduction in education Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology Partners and key expertise Engineering: Structural, Electrical, Mechanical, Communication Economic Engineering Logistics Engineering Geological Hazards Water Ressource Management Geological Hazards Flood Risk Early Warning Systems Satellite Technology Geoinformation Management Meteorology and Climate Research Decision Support Sustainability Analysis Emergency Medicine Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology Hazard, vulnerability and risk Merz and Thieken (2004) Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology Classification of disaster impacts Disaster impacts direct tangible indirect intangible Fatalities Material damage Casualties Pollution Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology tangible intangible Business interruptions Traffic interruptions Psychological damage Migration Topics 2003-2008 Risk Map Germany Earthquake Flood Winter storm Man-made hazards Asset estimation Infrastructures Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology Megacity Instanbul Earthquake hazard analysis (tectonic model, microzonation, recent and historic seismicity analysis) Vulnerability and risk (indirect damages, remotely sensed detection of building vulnerability, indicators for socio-economic vulnerability) Risk Map Germany Nation-wide quantification of risk for the natural hazards winter storm, flood and earthquake as well as for manmade hazards Methods to determine and compare the risks on a common spatial scale (municipalities) Quantifying direct tangible losses (damage to residential buildings) Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology Risk Map Germany Hazard modelling • Winter storm: Gust speed (m/s) for return periods 2-500 years • Earthquake: Macroseismic intensity (EMS98) for return period 475 years • Flood: Inundation depth (m) for return period 200/300 years Vulnerability modelling • Damage ratio as a function of hazard • Using building characteristics Thieken et al. (2009) Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology Risk Map Germany Asset estimation • Disaggregation of population • Estimation of residential building stock • Estimation of industrial building stock Presentation • Web-based information system: RiskExplorer Germany (http://www.cedim.de/riskexplorer.p hp) Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology Risk Map Germany – risk comparison Saxony Harmonization of data, methods and return periods Thieken et al. (2009) Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology Megacity Istanbul Stress Field Modelling Local site effects Fragility and vulnerability • Remote sensing • • • • • Land cover Building density Building height Type of roof Age of buildings • Building classification • Vulnerability curves for building types Socio-Economic Impacts Hergert (2008), Münich (2008) Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology Megacity Instanbul: Urban Disaster Risk Index Physical Risk Descriptor Physical Damage Human Losses Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology Urban Seismic Risk Index Impact Factor Social Fragility Lack of Resilience Megacity Istanbul Using Indicators for Risk Communication and Decision Making Validation with Expert Group • Interactively analyzing indicators to define importance weights (dynamic sensitivity tool in LDW) • Analyzing indicators for soundness and usability Implementation with Stakeholders • Managing and organizing a group of target stakeholders in workshops to discuss the outcomes of the MIS. • Aim: stakeholders take ownership of the indicator model and use it in periodic evaluations of the city’s risk Khazai (2009) Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology Topics 2008-2010 Natural Disasters under Climate Change Conditions Monitoring of Global Risk Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Floods under Climate Change Earthquake Model Germany Vulnerability Central Asia India • Infrastructure Networks • Agriculture • Industry Methods Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology Modelling Remote Sensing Indicators Data Mining … Regional flood hazard in a changing climate Objectives • • Quantify change of flood hazard characteristics and flood risk in small to medium size catchments in a changing climate Including estimate of uncertainty Method • Combine regional climate models driven by global models with regional/local hydrological models and observations Schädler et al. (2008) Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology Regional flood hazard in a changing climate Three typical river systems (Ammer, Mulde, Ruhr) 30 years control time series (19712000), 30 years prognosis for 20302060) Evaluation of continuous time series modelled with • 2 regional climate models (COSMOCLM, WRF/MM5) with a resolution <10km, forced by different global climate models • 3 rainfall-runoff models Schädler et al. (2008) Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology Vulnerability: Indicators Khazai et al. (2008) Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology Vulnerability: Indirect tangible loss Vulnerability indicators for the industrial sector Merz et al. (2008) Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology Vulnerability: Infrastructure Analysis of criticality of road sections Overlay with hazard maps Hot spots Relative Risk Index Hot Spot Map Schulz et al. (2007) Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology Global Risk Assessment: Global earthquake model Zschau (2008) Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology Thank you for your attention! www.cedim.de KIT – Die Kooperation von Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe GmbH und Universität Karlsruhe (TH)