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Center for Disaster Management
and Risk Reduction Technology
Center of Disaster Management
and Risk Reduction Technology –
CEDIM
Kathrin Poser, Friedemann Wenzel and CEDIM members
Vulnerability and disaster risk mapping workshop
Copenhagen, 02.07.2009
KIT – Die Kooperation von
Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe
GmbH und Universität Karlsruhe
(TH)
Overview
 Who we are
 What we do
• Risk Map Germany
• Megacity Istanbul
• Natural disasters under climate change
• Global earthquake model
Center for Disaster Management
and Risk Reduction Technology
CEDIM History
 Interdisciplinary research centre dedicated to fundamental
and applied research in the field of disaster management
 Founded in 2002 as a cooperation between the University of
Karlsruhe and the German Research Centre for Geosciences
(GFZ)
 Joined in 2007 by Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe
 More than 30 scientist from 15 different research units
Center for Disaster Management
and Risk Reduction Technology
CEDIM Mission
• To advance the science of natural and man-made hazards
assessment and develop disaster management solutions for
early detection and reduction of risk
• create scientific knowledge, technologies and intelligent tools for
risk assessment and analysis, risk management and risk
communication
• co-operate closely with national risk and crisis managing agencies
• contribute to key international challenges such as the impact of
disasters on megacities and under climate change conditions
• communicate experience into the academic sector with the aim of
mainstreaming disaster risk reduction in education
Center for Disaster Management
and Risk Reduction Technology
Partners and key expertise
Engineering: Structural, Electrical, Mechanical, Communication
Economic Engineering
Logistics Engineering
Geological Hazards
Water Ressource Management
Geological Hazards
Flood Risk
Early Warning Systems
Satellite Technology
Geoinformation Management
Meteorology and Climate Research
Decision Support
Sustainability Analysis
Emergency Medicine
Center for Disaster Management
and Risk Reduction Technology
Hazard, vulnerability and risk
Merz and Thieken (2004)
Center for Disaster Management
and Risk Reduction Technology
Classification of disaster impacts
Disaster impacts
direct
tangible
indirect
intangible
Fatalities
Material
damage
Casualties
Pollution
Center for Disaster Management
and Risk Reduction Technology
tangible
intangible
Business
interruptions
Traffic
interruptions
Psychological
damage
Migration
Topics 2003-2008
Risk Map Germany

Earthquake

Flood

Winter storm

Man-made hazards

Asset estimation

Infrastructures
Center for Disaster Management
and Risk Reduction Technology
Megacity Instanbul

Earthquake hazard analysis
(tectonic model, microzonation,
recent and historic seismicity
analysis)

Vulnerability and risk (indirect
damages, remotely sensed
detection of building vulnerability,
indicators for socio-economic
vulnerability)
Risk Map Germany
 Nation-wide quantification of risk for the natural hazards
winter storm, flood and earthquake as well as for manmade hazards
 Methods to determine and compare the risks on a common
spatial scale (municipalities)
 Quantifying direct tangible losses (damage to residential
buildings)
Center for Disaster Management
and Risk Reduction Technology
Risk Map Germany
 Hazard modelling
• Winter storm: Gust speed (m/s) for
return periods 2-500 years
• Earthquake: Macroseismic intensity
(EMS98) for return period 475 years
• Flood: Inundation depth (m) for
return period 200/300 years
 Vulnerability modelling
• Damage ratio as a function of
hazard
• Using building characteristics
Thieken et al. (2009)
Center for Disaster Management
and Risk Reduction Technology
Risk Map Germany
 Asset estimation
• Disaggregation of population
• Estimation of residential building
stock
• Estimation of industrial building
stock
 Presentation
• Web-based information system:
RiskExplorer Germany
(http://www.cedim.de/riskexplorer.p
hp)
Center for Disaster Management
and Risk Reduction Technology
Risk Map Germany – risk comparison Saxony
 Harmonization of data, methods
and return periods
Thieken et al. (2009)
Center for Disaster Management
and Risk Reduction Technology
Megacity Istanbul
 Stress Field Modelling
 Local site effects
 Fragility and vulnerability
• Remote sensing
•
•
•
•
•
Land cover
Building density
Building height
Type of roof
Age of buildings
• Building classification
• Vulnerability curves for building
types
 Socio-Economic Impacts
Hergert (2008), Münich (2008)
Center for Disaster Management
and Risk Reduction Technology
Megacity Instanbul: Urban Disaster Risk Index
Physical Risk
Descriptor
Physical Damage
Human Losses
Center for Disaster Management
and Risk Reduction Technology
Urban Seismic
Risk Index
Impact Factor
Social Fragility
Lack of Resilience
Megacity Istanbul
Using Indicators for Risk
Communication and Decision Making

Validation with Expert Group
• Interactively analyzing indicators to define
importance weights (dynamic sensitivity
tool in LDW)
• Analyzing indicators for soundness and
usability

Implementation with Stakeholders
• Managing and organizing a group of target
stakeholders in workshops to discuss the
outcomes of the MIS.
• Aim: stakeholders take ownership of the
indicator model and use it in periodic
evaluations of the city’s risk
Khazai (2009)
Center for Disaster Management
and Risk Reduction Technology
Topics 2008-2010
Natural Disasters under
Climate Change Conditions
Monitoring of Global Risk

Global Earthquake Model (GEM)

Floods under Climate Change

Earthquake Model Germany

Vulnerability

Central Asia

India
• Infrastructure Networks
• Agriculture
• Industry
Methods
Center for Disaster Management
and Risk Reduction Technology

Modelling

Remote Sensing

Indicators

Data Mining

…
Regional flood hazard in a changing climate
Objectives
•
•
Quantify change of flood hazard
characteristics and flood risk in small
to medium size catchments in a
changing climate
Including estimate of uncertainty
Method
•
Combine regional climate models
driven by global models with
regional/local hydrological models
and observations
Schädler et al. (2008)
Center for Disaster Management
and Risk Reduction Technology
Regional flood hazard in a changing climate
 Three typical river systems (Ammer,
Mulde, Ruhr)
 30 years control time series (19712000), 30 years prognosis for 20302060)
 Evaluation of continuous time series
modelled with
• 2 regional climate models (COSMOCLM, WRF/MM5) with a resolution
<10km, forced by different global
climate models
• 3 rainfall-runoff models
Schädler et al. (2008)
Center for Disaster Management
and Risk Reduction Technology
Vulnerability: Indicators
Khazai et al. (2008)
Center for Disaster Management
and Risk Reduction Technology
Vulnerability: Indirect tangible loss
 Vulnerability indicators for the industrial sector
Merz et al. (2008)
Center for Disaster Management
and Risk Reduction Technology
Vulnerability: Infrastructure
 Analysis of criticality of
road sections
 Overlay with hazard
maps
 Hot spots
Relative Risk Index
Hot Spot Map
Schulz et al. (2007)
Center for Disaster Management
and Risk Reduction Technology
Global Risk Assessment: Global earthquake model
Zschau (2008)
Center for Disaster Management
and Risk Reduction Technology
Center for Disaster Management
and Risk Reduction Technology
Thank you for your
attention!
www.cedim.de
KIT – Die Kooperation von
Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe
GmbH und Universität Karlsruhe
(TH)