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Economic and Commercial Division 2 December 2015 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT & STATE FINAL DEMAND, SEPTEMBER QUARTER 2015 Summary CHART 1: GDP GROWTH (REAL, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 6% In the September quarter 2015: 0% Quarterly growth Further Analysis Sep-15 Sep-14 Sep-13 Sep-12 Sep-11 Sep-10 Sep-09 Sep-08 -2% Sep-07 Australian Real Gross Domestic Income, which indicates the purchasing power of total incomes generated by Australian production, increased by 0.3% in seasonally adjusted terms. 2% Sep-05 South Australian State Final Demand (SFD) rose 0.1% and was 1.6% higher than a year earlier, in real seasonally adjusted terms. 4% Sep-06 Australian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose 0.9% and was 2.5% higher than a year earlier in real, seasonally adjusted terms. Real GDP grow th (seasonally adjusted, %) Through the year growth Quarter Seasonally adjusted data CHART 2: NON-FARM GDP GROWTH (REAL, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) Australia’s non-farm GDP rose by 1.0% in the September quarter to be 2.6% higher than a year ago (see Chart 2). Australian Domestic Final Demand (DFD) fell by 0.5% in the September quarter 2015 (see Chart 3). DFD was 0.8% higher than a year ago. Nationally, household and public sector consumption spending both rose by 0.7% in the September quarter and dwelling investment rose by 0.9% but new business investment fell by 4.6% and public sector capital spending fell by 9.2%. Through the year growth Real non-farm GDP grow th (seasonally adjusted, %) Farm GDP fell by 3.2% in the September quarter and was 1.3% lower than a year ago. 6% 4% 2% 0% Quarterly growth Sep-15 Sep-14 Sep-13 Sep-12 Sep-11 Sep-10 Sep-09 Sep-08 Sep-07 Sep-06 Sep-05 -2% Quarter Next release of ABS cat. no. 5206.0 is 2 March 2016 1 Economic and Commercial Division 2 December 2015 CHART 4: SOUTH AUSTRALIAN SFD GROWTH (REAL, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) CHART 3: DFD GROWTH (REAL, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 8% 9% Through the year growth Through the year growth 6% Real SFD grow th (seasonally adjusted, %) 4% 2% 0% 3% 0% -3% Quarterly growth Quarterly growth Quarter Sep-15 Sep-14 Sep-13 Sep-12 Sep-11 Sep-10 Sep-09 Sep-08 Sep-05 Sep-07 -6% Sep-15 Sep-14 Sep-13 Sep-12 Sep-11 Sep-10 Sep-09 Sep-08 Sep-07 Sep-06 Sep-05 -2% Sep-06 Real DFD grow th (seasonally adjusted, %) 6% Quarter South Australian State Final Demand (SFD) rose by 0.1% during the September quarter 2015— equal highest with Tasmania—see Chart 4. In South Australia, during the September quarter, spending growth was recorded in dwelling investment (up 3.1%), public sector consumption (up 1.0%), new private business investment (up 1.2%) and household consumption spending (up 0.4%). A decline in spending was recorded in public sector capital investment (down 14%). Among the states, SFD rose in the September quarter in South Australia and Tasmania (both up 0.1%), with Victoria unchanged in the quarter. A decline in SFD was recorded for Western Australia (down 1.3%), Queensland and NSW (both down 0.2%). TABLE 1: State Final Demand – Real, Seasonally Adjusted NSW Sep qtr 15 Sep qtr 15 v Jun qtr 15 v Sep qtr 14 (% change) (% change) -0.2 2.6 VIC - 4.2 QLD -0.2 -2.5 SA 0.1 1.6 WA -1.3 -2.6 TAS 0.1 1.4 AUS (DFD) -0.5 0.8 Next release of ABS cat. no. 5206.0 is 2 March 2016 2 Economic and Commercial Division 2 December 2015 CHART 5: QUARTERLY PERCENTAGE POINT CONTRIBUTIONS TO SFD/DFD GROWTH (REAL, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) TABLE 2: Expenditure Components of SFD/DFD and GDP – Real, Seasonally Adjusted SA AUS Household Consumption 0.4 0.7 2.7 2.7 Government Consumption 1.0 0.7 3.2 3.6 New Business Investment 1.2 -4.6 -0.9 -11.0 Dwelling Investment 3.1 0.9 -0.2 10.3 Ownership Transfer Costs -6.3 -3.6 3.2 4.6 Public Investment -14.1 -9.2 -17.5 -7.9 SFD/DFD 0.1 -0.5 1.6 0.8 Exports* N/A 4.6 N/A 6.5 Imports* N/A -2.4 N/A -1.2 GDP N/A 0.9 N/A 2.5 *National data is for goods and services. State data is no longer published in this release. 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 SFD AUS Public Investment SA 0.4 Ownership transfer costs (% change) AUSTRALIA Dwelling Investment (% change) SOUTH AUSTRALIA New Business Investment v Sep qtr 14 Government Consumption v Jun qtr 15 0.6 Household consumption Sep qtr 15 Real contribution to SFD/DFD grow th (seasonally adjusted, percentage point contribution) Sep qtr 15 Component Explanatory Notes Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total market value of goods and services produced in Australia within a given period. The state by state breakdown of this figure is Gross State Product (GSP), however estimates of GSP growth are only published annually. The main quarterly measure of state economic activity is State Final Demand (SFD), which is an estimate of the level of spending in the local economy by private and public sectors. Spending is reported on the consumption of goods and services, and capital investment. Spending (SFD) is not the same as production (GDP). SFD for example, includes spending by households and businesses on imports, which are not produced (and do not create jobs) in South Australia. SFD does not include South Australia’s exports, which do get produced and create jobs in the State. Real Gross Domestic Income measures the purchasing power of the production (GDP) occurring in Australia. It takes into account the impacts of changes in Australia’s terms of trade. GDP only measures the volume of goods and services produced, mined and farmed in Australia. If prices are rising for our exports this will lift our incomes. Real GDP does not measure this, but real GDI does. Next release of ABS cat. no. 5206.0 is 2 March 2016 3