Download finding policy alliances for climate change

Climate change: the latest evidence
Professor Mike Hulme
Director, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
LCVP Annual Conference, 15 June 2006, London
• How certain can we be about climate change?
• How do we manage the unavoidable?
• How do we avoid the unmanageable?
• Finding policy alliances for climate change
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research
Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI
can we be certain about climate change?
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research
Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI
annual Central England Temperature (degC)
11
12
10
11.5
9
11
8
10.5
7
10
6
1650
9.5
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
annual UK sea surface temperature (degC)
UK warming
Physical evidence …
the Vernagt Glacier, Austria
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research
Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI
Extreme central
European summer
temperature …
2003
Source: Luterbacher et al. 2004
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research
Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI
CO2 concentrations
Risk of overshooting 2ºC target
Source: den Elzen and Meinshausen
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research
Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI
Changes in ocean pH
pH reduced by 0.3
to 0.4 by 2100
under IS92a (i.e.,
a 100% to 150%
increase in [H+])
Orr et al. 2005 (Nature)
how do we manage the unavoidable?
… building a resilient society
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research
Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI
Tools for adaptation planning
UK national climate scenarios
Risk assessment framework
UK climate change programme
Heatwave 2003 – health care
• Record high temperatures
(>37°C) in southeast England (and
west-central Europe) in early August
2003
• 15,000 premature deaths across
west-central Europe, mostly the
elderly
• This led to UK National Health
Service issuing a “Heatwave Plan for
England” to minimise future adverse
effects on human health
Public investment
Thames Barrier Tidal, Fluvially dominated Closures(as at November 2004)
18
16
14
No of Closures
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
82/83 83/84 84/85 85/86 86/87 87/88 88/89 89/90 90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04
Years
Tidal
Fluvially dominated
how do we avoid the unmanageable?
... building a low carbon economy
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research
Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI
Decoupling
growth,
consumption
and
emissions
Source: UK Climate Change Programme
Trade, tax or
technology?
Negotiating
beyond
2012
Source: David Victor
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research
Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI
finding policy alliances for climate change
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research
Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI
policy alliances
• energy security
• ‘making poverty history’
• environmental protection
• energy efficiency
The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research
Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and also receives some support from the DTI