Download making advances in science and technology available for disaster

MAKING ADVANCES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
AVAILABLE FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION (DRR)
PLANNING IN MIDDLE AND LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES
Christopher John Wardle, Alejandra Gaviria Reyes, James Brown - GEM Foundation, Pavia, Italy.
Why is understanding earthquakes important for DRR in low and middle income countries? *1
Global mortality due to disasters
Taken together, high- and upper-middle-income
countries experienced 56% of disasters but lost 32% of
lives in the past 20 years. In the same period, low- and
lower-middle-income countries experienced 44% of
disasters but suffered a disproportionately high 68% of
global mortality.
Income reduced by 1/3 in Nepal
Low- & lowermiddle-income
countries
68%
32%
High- & uppermiddle-income
countries
The PDNA prices the damage of Nepal Earthquake at
US$ 5.15 billion, losses at US$ 1.9 billion and recovery
needs at US$ 6.6 billion, roughly a third of the
economy. Early estimates suggest that an additional
3 percent of the population has been pushed into
poverty as a direct result of the earthquakes. This
translates into approximately one million more people
living below the poverty line.
$$$
GDP drops 25% post-earthquake
Nepal’s 2015 post-earthquake
GDP growth dropped by over 1.5
percentage points from the estimated
4.6% pre-earthquake.
GDP
How can the GEM Foundation’s datasets, models and tools assist in each phase of DRR decision making?
Prevention
Preparedness
Response & Recovery
Develop custom models and risk portraits at a variety of scales (city, province, country) and perform custom
calculations to assess the type of construction that should be adopted to mitigate the damage and losses
from future earthquakes.
Develop earthquake scenarios for post-disaster
recovery and social consequences (need for
shelter, healthcare, education).
Estimate expected downtime and interruption costs of structures and
calculate recovery times for the built environment.
Calculate custom hazard and risk results for an area of interest (fatalities, damage, collapse, financial metrics,
maps, curves, etc).
Support calculations for fund allocation, insurance
viability and creation of insurance pools.
Investigate socio-economic vulnerability.
Assess gaps in earthquake resilience using
stakeholder inputs.
Overlay hazard and risk maps on the shelter-seeking population to select
lower risk zones to stage response and recovery.
Undertake cost-benefit analyses of retrofitting buildings for seismic events.
Estimate the number of people that are likely to seek shelter.
Collect, catalogue and estimate earthquake damage, losses and impacts.
Map critical infrastructure and lifelines.
Explore risk drivers with interactive maps and other risk information.
How is GEM Collaborating with NSET in Nepal? an example of our added value in DRR in a developing country.
GEM has been requested to assist in developing a new national seismic
hazard map, which will result in improvements in the national building code.
Risk assessments assist in setting national
development and urban planning priorities.
Scorecard tool used to understand local needs
and priorities in building resilience.
How do GEM’s empowering, open-source solutions for DRR stack up? *2
Features
Open-source solutions from GEM
Commercial options
Cost-effective
Free of cost.
Significant expense beyond the means of many low-income countries.
Reproducible
Based on open and reproducible science which adapts to new evidence.
Reputation based.
Comprehensive
Offers a full spectrum analysis
(from hazard to socio-economic vulnerability).
Limited to hazard and/or risk assessment.
Peer-reviewed and supported
Extensively tested and embraces criticism.
Code not available for review.
Collaborative and community-driven
Models developed jointly with national agencies
and through international consortia and projects.
Top-down approach driven by
commercial business model.
Builds local capacity
Empowerment and skills transfer are intrinsic to our core principles.
Skills transfer against fee.
Transparent
Models, data and code are openly accessible and able to be queried.
Report-based results delivered in closed manner.
Time-effective workflow
Builds on and adds value to existing models.
Calculations start from scratch each time.
Socially responsible
Public good is at the heart of what we do.
Serving industry.
Open source
Characterised by fully open AGPL and CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 licenses
for sharing tools and results widely and freely.
Black box - no open access or insight into
the inner workings of the tools.
“... anything less than release of actual source code is an indefensible approach for any
scientific results that depend on computation, because not releasing such code raises
needless, and needlessly confusing, roadblocks to reproducibility.” *3
Legend: Where is GEM helping
provide solutions for DRR?
Hazard
Hazard, Risk, Social Vulnerability
get involved
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Talk to our staff at this event about your needs and the
opportunities they may present for joint fund-raising and
collaboration.
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Write to us - [email protected]
Explore our software - https://Platform.OpenQuake.org/
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*1a - Nepal Earthquake 2015: Post Disaster Needs Assessment, 2015. National Planning Commission, Government of Nepal. Nepal. *1b - The Human Cost of Natural Disasters, 2015. Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, CRED. Belgium.
*2 - The Skeptics’ Guide to the Universe, 2014, accessed 20 December 2014, http://bit.ly/Sci_v_Pseudo *3 - The Case For Open Computer Programs - Darrel C. Ince, Leslie Hatton & John Graham-Cumming - Nature 482, 485–488 (23 February 2012).