Download Forest species

Pleistocene History of Amazonian Birds
as Reconstructed by Ecological Niche Modeling
Amazon areas of endemism
Amazon areas of endemism
Riverine barrier hypothesis (past and present)
Marine transgression hypothesis
Pleistocene climatic fluctuations
Testing Pleistocene hypothesis in a snap
shot... 21,000 before present (at last glacial maximum-LGM)
Predictions:
Reduction and fragmentation
in the potential distributions of forest environments
Expansion in the potential distributions of
savanna environments
Data Set
Forest species
Campephilus rubricollis
Formicarius colma
Phylidor pyrrhodes
Automolus infuscatus
Pipra coronata
Tangara mexicana
Rauvolfia parensis
R. polyphylla
R. sprucei
Data Set
Savanna species
Athene cunicularia
Sublegatus modestus
Sporophila plumbea
Emberizoides herbicola
Ammodramus humeralis
Rauvolfia weddelliana
R. ligustrina
Curatella americana
Data Set
Topographic Layers1
Aspect
Slope
Topographic Index
Present2
Climatic Layers
Temperature
Precipitation
21,000 Years Ago3
Hadley Centre
Canadian Center
1US
Geological Survey (http://edcdaac.usgs.gov/gtopo30/hydro/)
2Intergovernmental
3Paleoclimate
Panel on Climate Change (http://www.ipcc.ch)
Modeling Intercomparison Project (http://www-lsce.cea.fr/pmip/)
Ecological Niche Modeling: GARP
Collection locality data
Projection in present scenario
ENM
Ecological data
GARP
Projection to past scenario
Implicit assumptions...
Ecological niches are relatively stable in evolutionary time
(see Dr. Martinez-Meyer’s several publications)
The paleoclimate reconstructions are fair approximations
of past climatic conditions
Forest species: an example
Tangara mexicana
Occurrence points
Forest species: an example
Tangara mexicana
Present Potential
Distribution
Low model agreement (= ‘absence’)
High model agreement (= ‘presence’)
Forest species: an example
Tangara mexicana
Potential Distribution
Present
Hadley Scenario (21,000 yrs ago)
Forest species: an example
Tangara mexicana
Potential Distribution
Present
Hadley Scenario (21,000 yrs ago)
Canadian Scenario (21,000 yrs ago)
Forest species:
More examples
Forest: All Species
Potential Distribution
21,000 Years Ago
Hadley and Canadian
averaged
Savanna: All Species
Potential Distribution
21,000 Years Ago
Hadley and Canadian
averaged
Main conclusions
• Potential distribution of forest birds contracted and
fragmented during the last glacial maximum
• Some peripheral areas of the Amazon retained suitable
conditions for these species during the LGM
(being these areas coincident across species)
• Potential distribution of savanna birds did not show a
consistent pattern during the same period.
Limitations and Next Steps
• More species, more localities
Use molecular data to test explicit hypotheses in a
phylogenetic framework
• Broaden study in terms of taxa included, and species from
communities now peripheral to the Basin
(dry-forest arches, Andean, Tepuian species, etc.)
• Enrich the suite of climate scenarios and use
higher resolution coverages