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CLIMATE AND CLIMATE CHANGE Jill F. Hasling, President Certified Consulting Meteorologist Weather Research Center Houston, Texas www.wxresearch.com What is the ‘Greenhouse Effect’? The Earth’s Greenhouse effect works by the atmosphere facilitating convection . In other words, the Earth’s ‘greenhouse effect’ works by modulating radiation. With out the ‘greenhouse effect’, the Earth would not be habitable. Without the ‘greenhouse effect’ the temperature of the earth would be -18 deg C. When you add the ‘greenhouse effect’ back in the temperature is ~33 deg C. What is Climate? Climate is the average and variations of weather in a region over long periods of time. What is Climate? Climate is determined by the long-term pattern of temperatures and precipitation averages and extremes at a location. Climate descriptions can refer to areas that are local, regional, or global. Climate also describes different time intervals, such as decades, years, seasons, months or specific dates of the year. What is Climate? Climate is not the same thing as weather. Weather is the minute by minute variable conditions of the atmosphere on a local scale. Climate is a conceptual description of an area’s average weather conditions and the extend to which those conditions vary over long time intervals. What is Climate Change? Climate change is a significant and persistent change in the area’s average climate conditions or their extremes. Climate has changed in the past, is changing now and will change in the future. Types of Climates • A -- TROPICAL CLIMATE • B -- DRY CLIMATE • C -- MOIST SUBTROPICAL MID-LATITUDE CLIMATE • D -- MOIST CONTINENTAL MID-LATITUDE CLIMATE • E -- POLAR CLIMATE Types of Climates •A TROPICAL CLIMATE • Climates in which the average temperature for all months is greater than 64°F (18°C). • Extend northward and southward from the equator to about 15 to 25 degrees latitude. • Example: Key West, FL Types of Climates •B DRY CLIMATE • Arid and semi-arid deserts and steppes; evaporation exceeds precipitation. • Extends from 20 to 35 degrees latitude North and South of the Equator. • Example: Albuquerque, NM Types of Climates •C MOIST SUBTROPCIAL MID-LATITUDE CLIMATE • Warm and humid summers (with frequent thunderstorms) and mild winters. Warmest month is above 50°F (10°C). Coldest month is above 32°F (0°C). • Extends from 30 to 50 degrees latitude mainly on the eastern and western borders of most continents. • Example: Houston, TX Types of Climates •D MOIST CONTINENTAL MID-LATITUDE CLIMATE • Warm to cool summers and cold winters. Warmest month is above 50°F (10°C). Coldest month is below 32°F (0°C). • Extends poleward from the moist subtropical mid-latitude climate regions. • Example: St. Paul, MN Types of Climates •E POLAR CLIMATE • Cold temperatures all year with the warmest month below 50°F (10°C). • Found on the northern coastal areas of North America, Europe, Asia, and on the land masses of Greenland and Antarctica. • Example: Barrow, AK A - Tropical B - Dry C - Mid-latitude subtropical D - Mid-latitude continental H - Highlands Factors that Influence Climate • Solar radiation received at a particular latitude Factors that Influence Climate • Solar radiation received at a particular latitude • Air mass influence Factors that Influence Climate • Solar radiation received at a particular latitude • Air mass influence • Location of global high and low pressure zones Factors that Influence Climate • Solar radiation received at a particular latitude • Air mass influence • Location of global high and low pressure zones • Heat exchange from ocean currents Factors that Influence Climate • Solar radiation received at a particular latitude • Air mass influence • Location of global high and low pressure zones • Heat exchange from ocean currents • Distribution of mountain barriers Factors that Influence Climate • Solar radiation received at a particular latitude • Air mass influence • Location of global high and low pressure zones • Heat exchange from ocean currents • Distribution of mountain barriers • Pattern of prevailing winds Factors that Influence Climate • Solar radiation received at a particular latitude • Air mass influence • Location of global high and low pressure zones • Heat exchange from ocean currents • Distribution of mountain barriers • Pattern of prevailing winds • Distribution of land and sea Factors that Influence Climate • Solar radiation received at a particular latitude • Air mass influence • Location of global high and low pressure zones • Heat exchange from ocean currents • Distribution of mountain barriers • Pattern of prevailing winds • Distribution of land and sea • Altitude Influences to weather patterns by other natural re-occurring climate cycles • El Niño • La Niña • Drought • Monsoon Normal Conditions • Strong easterly trade winds in the tropical Pacific push surface waters toward the west. • Waters heat up more as they move toward the western Pacific Ocean because of longer sun exposure. • Cooler waters off the coast of Peru in the eastern Pacific due to upwelling. El Niño Conditions • Weaker easterly trade winds in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. • This causes the normal upwelling of the cold water from below the surface to stop and the warm surface water to remain. Affects of El Niño • Impacts to the continental US: •Temperatures in the winter are warmer than normal in the North Central States and cooler than normal in the Southeast and the Southwest. • Increase in the rainfall across the southern United States from Texas to Florida. • Increase in upper level winds over the Atlantic which could cause fewer hurricanes. El Niño El Niño Years Typically occur every 3 to 5 years and last about one year. • • • • • • • • • • • • 1902-1903 1905-1906 1911-1912 1914-1915 1918-1919 1923-1924 1925-1926 1930-1931 1932-1933 1939-1940 1941-1942 1951-1952 • • • • • • • • • • • • 1953-1954 1957-1958 1965-1966 1969-1970 1972-1973 1976-1977 1982-1983 (Major event) 1986-1987 1991-1992 1994-1995 1997-1998 (Major event) 2002-2003 • 2006-2007 La Niña Conditions • Stronger than normal easterly trade winds in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. • This causes more upwelling off the western coast of South America resulting in cooler than normal surface water across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Affects of La Niña • Impacts to the continental US: • Wetter than normal conditions across the Pacific Northwest. • Drier and warmer than normal conditions across much of the southern United States. • Decrease in upper level winds over the Atlantic which could increase hurricane activity. La Niña La Niña Years Typically occur every 3 to 5 years and last about one year. • • • • • • • • • • • 1903-1904 1906-1907 1908-1909 1916-1917 1920-1921 1924-1925 1928-1929 1931-1932 1938-1939 1942-1943 1949-1950 • • • • • • • • • • • 1954-1955 1964-1965 1970-1971 1973-1974 1975-1976 1988-1989 1995-1996 1998-1999 2000-2001 Early 2006 Late 2007-2008 Drought A period of abnormally dry weather sufficiently prolonged for the lack of water to cause serious hydrologic imbalance in the affected area. Drought A period of abnormally dry weather sufficiently prolonged for the lack of water to cause serious hydrologic imbalance in the affected area. Causes serious problems such as crop damage and/or water supply shortages. Drought A period of abnormally dry weather sufficiently prolonged for the lack of water to cause serious hydrologic imbalance in the affected area. Causes serious problems such as crop damage and/or water supply shortages. Severity of drought depends upon the degree of moisture deficiency, the duration, and the size of the affected area. Monsoon A period of seasonal winds; strongest on the southern and eastern sides of Asia. Monsoon A period of seasonal winds; strongest on the southern and eastern sides of Asia. Monsoon climate -- Type of climate found in regions subject to monsoons and characterized by a dry winter and a wet summer. Monsoon A period of seasonal winds; strongest on the southern and eastern sides of Asia. Monsoon climate -- Type of climate found in regions subject to monsoons and characterized by a dry winter and a wet summer. For example, India’s southwest monsoon lasts from June to September and brings vital rain for the country’s farmers, but it also causes massive destruction, floods, mudslides, collapsing houses, and lightning strikes killing hundreds of people each year. Using Climatology to Study Specific Weather Events Tropical Cyclones Floods Droughts Winter Storms Tornadoes Rainfall Snowfall Temperatures For Example: Tropical Cyclone Climatology in the Atlantic Atlantic Basin Category 5 Hurricanes 31 Category 5 Hurricanes have occurred since 1900 Lowest Pressure – Hurricane Wilma 2005 - 882 mbs Atlantic Basin Category 5 Hurricanes 31 Category 5 Hurricanes have occurred since 1900 Lowest Pressure – Hurricane Wilma 2005 - 882 mbs Highest maximum sustained winds – Hurricane Allen 1980 - 165 Knots Atlantic Basin Category 5 Hurricanes 31 Category 5 Hurricanes have occurred since 1900 Lowest Pressure – Hurricane Wilma 2005 - 882 mbs Highest maximum sustained winds – Hurricane Allen 1980 - 165 Knots Most Category 5 Hurricanes per season 2005 – (Four) – Emily, Katrina, Rita and Wilma 1961 – (Two) – Carla and Hattie 1960 – (Two) – Donna and Ethel 2007 - (Two) - Dean and Felix Hurricane Strikes on the United States Mainland 1851-2006 Category Strikes 5 3 4 18 3 75 2 73 1 110 TOTAL 279 Major 96 Category 3 or higher at landfall Hurricane Strikes in Texas 1851 to 2007 Category Texas [North] [Central] [South] USA 1 2 3 4 5 All Cat 3+ 24 13 7 7 18 7 5 7 12 3 2 7 7 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 61 27 16 22 19 7 4 8 110 73 75 18 3 279 96 Top Ten Known Most Intense Texas Hurricanes Based on Pressure at Landfall 1886 1919 1961 1900 2005 1932 1957 1915 1970 1980 Indianola South Texas Hurricane Carla Galveston Hurricane Rita N Texas Hurricane Audrey Galveston Hurricane Celia Hurricane Allen 925 mbs 927 mbs 931 mbs 936 mbs 937 mbs 941 mbs 945 mbs 945 mbs 945 mbs 945 mbs Last Direct Hit of a major hurricane within 75 nautical miles of the location indicated. Brownsville, Texas Central Padre Island Corpus Christi, Texas Port Aransas, Texas Matagorda, Texas Freeport, Texas Houston, Texas Beaumont, Texas 1980 Hurricane Allen 1999 Hurricane Bret 1970 Hurricane Celia 1970 Hurricane Celia 1961 Hurricane Carla 1983 Hurricane Alicia 1983 Hurricane Alicia 2005 Hurricane Rita – Cat 3 – Cat 3 – Cat 3 – Cat 3 – Cat 4 – Cat 3 – Cat 3 – Cat 3 Climate Change on Earth is a fact of life. Through out Earth’s history, the climate has varied. Reflecting the complex interactions and dependencies of the solar, oceanic, terrestrial, atmospheric and living components that make up planet Earth’s systems. It is the belief, f or the last million years, earth has experienced cycles of warming and cooling that take approximately 100,000 years to complete. During each cycle, global average temperatures most likely have fallen and risen 9 deg F (5 deg C) each time. This took the Earth into an ice age and then warming it again. These cycles are believed to be associated with regular changes in the Earth’s orbit that alter the intensity of Solar energy the planet receives. Another process that can change the Earth’s climate abruptly is a shift in the oceans circulations. This can happen due to a massive volcanic eruptions. Climate has changed throughout geological history. There have been many natural reasons: •Changes in the Sun’s energy received by the Earth due to slow orbital changes •Changes in the Sun’s energy reaching the Earth’s surface due to volcanic eruptions. The sun is the most powerful driving force on the Earth’s climate. Solar variability is the main cause of climate change. When the sun activity is low, the cooler the Earth’s temperature. The more active the sun, the higher the Earth’s temperature. The climate is always changing in response to the influences of the sun and the orbit of the sun. The climate is always changing in response to the influences of the Sun and the orbit of the Sun. Climate change is the result of • Earth's orbital eccentricities, • Earth’s axial wobble, • Solar brightness variation, • cosmic ray flux, etc.. The climate is always changing in response to the influences of the Sun and the orbit of the Sun. Climate change is the result of • Earth's orbital eccentricities, • Earth’s axial wobble, • Solar brightness variation, • cosmic ray flux, etc.. Other terrestrial drivers of climate change include: • Super volcanic events • Tectonic movement Variations in the earth’s orbital characteristics Eccentricity: The shape of the Earth’s orbit around the sun. Over a 100,000 year period, the orbit changes from being elliptical to nearly circular and back to elliptical. The greater the eccentricity [more elliptical] the greater variation in solar energy at the top of the atmosphere. Currently we are in a period of low eccentricity. Precession of the Equinox: the wobble of the earth as it rotates on its polar axis. This changes the orbital timing of the equinoxes and solstices. This precession has a cycle of 26,000 years. The Earth is closer to the sun in January [perihelion] and farthest from the sun in July [aphelion]. Obliquity - Changes in the tilt of the earth’s Axis a rotation of 41,000 years. During these 41,000 years the tilt changes from 22.5 degrees to 24.5 degrees. When the tilt is small there is less climatic variation between summer and winter seasons in the middle and high latitudes. Obliquity - Changes in the tilt of the earth’s Axis a rotation of 41,000 years. During these 41,000 years the tilt changes from 22.5 degrees to 24.5 degrees. When the tilt is small there is less climatic variation between summer and winter seasons in the middle and high latitudes. Periods of large tilt result in greater climatic variation in the middle and high latitudes. Winter tend to be colder and summers warmer. Currently the tilt is 23.5 degrees. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/slides/slideset/11/11_183_bslide.html Solar activity was lowest during the 17th Century, when Earth was most frigid. In 1996, near the last solar minimum, the Sun is nearly featureless. By 1999, approaching maximum, it is dotted by sunspots and fiery hot gas trapped in magnetic loops. Solar max has also been tied to a 2 percent increase in clouds over much of the United States. Sunspot data going back several hundred years showed that fewer sunspots signaled a cold period which could last up to 50 years but that over the past century their numbers had increased as the earth's climate grew steadily warmer. Sunspot data going back several hundred years showed that fewer sunspots signaled a cold period which could last up to 50 years but that over the past century their numbers had increased as the earth's climate grew steadily warmer. The scientists also compared data from ice samples collected during an expedition to Greenland in 1991. The most recent samples contained the lowest recorded levels of beryllium 10 for more than 1,000 years. Beryllium 10 is a particle created by cosmic rays that decreases in the Earth's atmosphere as the magnetic energy from the Sun increases. Scientists can currently trace beryllium 10 levels back 1,150 years. For the last 10,000 years [the span of human civilization the Earth’s climate has been relatively stable. Regional variations in climate patterns have influenced human history in profound ways. These variations have played important roles in whether a society thrived or failed. Cool climatic conditions have prevailed during the past 1,000,000 years. The species Homo sapiens evolved under these climatic conditions. Warm Periods - Interglacial Periods Over the past 415,000 years there have been 4 warm periods 1450 -1300 BC Minoan Warm Period 250-0 BC Roman Warm Period 800-1100 AD Medieval Warm Period 1900-2010 AD 20th Century Warm Period Other period are cool periods - Glacial Periods The early part of the 20th century was much colder than it is today. A consequence of these colder temperatures is that there are changes in sea currents and temperatures and in the strength and direction of the winds at sea. As a result, large icebergs from the Greenland ice sheet would often drift southward into the Atlantic Ocean and into the shipping lanes between Europe and America. It was much more likely that a vessel would encounter icebergs back in the early part of the century than it is now. This is in part a consequence of a cooler climate 80 years ago. In a scientific paper, written on the subject of the weather on that night in 1912 when the Titanic struck an iceberg and sunk, E. N. Lawrence concludes that there is a link between sunspots and the icebergs found in shipping lanes in the early 1900s. Colonies developed in Greenland 1,500 years ago. Earth’s climate is influenced by interactions involving the Sun, ocean, atmosphere, clouds, ice, land, and life. Climate varies by region as a result of local differences in these interactions. Covering 70% of the Earth’s surface, the ocean exerts a major control on climate by dominating the Earth’s energy and water cycles. The oceans have the capacity to absorb large amounts of solar energy. . Heat and water vapor are re-distributed globally through density-driven ocean currents and atmospheric circulation. Changes in the ocean circulation caused by tectonic movements or large influxes of fresh water from melting polar ice can lead to significant and abrupt climate change, both locally and on global scales. Solar power drives Earth’s climate. Energy from the Sun heats the surface, warms, the atmosphere, and powers the ocean currents. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE Things we don’t know! We do not have a long record of global temperatures. We do not know the mean temperature over the globe over time in order to know if we are below or above normal. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE Things we don’t know! We do not have a long record of global temperatures We do not know the mean temperature over the globe over time in order to know if we are below or above normal. We do not know which comes first more CO2 or higher temperatures. Some graphs show that rise in CO2 lags behind the rise in temperature by 100 years. BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME IN THE EARTH’S HISTORY Humans have only been trying to measure the temperature fairly consistently since about 1880, during which time we think the world may have warmed by about +0.6 °C ± 0.2 °C. The estimate of warming is less than the error margin on our ability to take the Earth's temperature, generally given as 14 °C ± 0.7 °C for the average 1961-1990 while the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) suggest 13.9 °C for their average 1880-2004. Our cities have grown and most of the observations are now influenced by the heat island with fewer observations in rural areas. Could this explain the increases temperatures in some areas? GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE What we know! Climate change is a natural cycle. The globe has warmed and cooled many times. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE What we know! Climate change is a natural cycle. The globe has warmed and cooled many times. The human contribution to warming is insignificant. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE What we know! Climate change is a natural cycle. The globe has warmed and cooled many times. The human contribution to warming is insignificant. Man cannot stop the natural warming cycle. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE What we know! Climate change is a natural cycle. The globe has warmed and cooled many times. The human contribution to warming is insignificant. Man cannot stop the natural warming cycle. Sea level heights have been higher in the past. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE What we know! Climate change is a natural cycle. The globe has warmed and cooled many times. The human contribution to warming is insignificant. Man cannot stop the natural warming cycle. Sea level heights have been higher in the past. The globe has been warmer in the past. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE What we know! Climate change is a natural cycle. The globe has warmed and cooled many times. The human contribution to warming is insignificant. Man cannot stop the natural warming cycle. Sea level heights have been higher in the past. The globe has been warmer in the past. The globe has been ice free in the past. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE What we know! Climate change is a natural cycle. The globe has warmed and cooled many times. The human contribution to warming is insignificant. Man cannot stop the natural warming cycle. Sea level heights have been higher in the past. The globe has been warmer in the past. The globe has been ice free in the past. The globe will cool again. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE What we know! Carbon dioxide is not a pollutant. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE What we know! Carbon dioxide is not a pollutant. Increased atmospheric levels of CO2 benefit plant growth, agriculture and forestry. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE What we know! Carbon dioxide is not a pollutant. Increased atmospheric levels of CO2 benefit plant growth, agriculture and forestry. Climate models overestimate the warming effects of greenhouse gases by ignoring negative feedbacks from clouds and water vapor that would greatly reduce the warming effects. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE What we know! Carbon dioxide is not a pollutant. Increased atmospheric levels of CO2 benefit plant growth, agriculture and forestry. Climate models overestimate the warming effects of greenhouse gases by ignoring negative feedbacks from clouds and water vapor that would greatly reduce the warming effects. Observed climate warming (and cooling) appear to be controlled by natural factors - principally the variability of the solar emissions and solar magnetic fields. Each year 186 billion tons of CO2 enters the Earth’s atmosphere. 90 billion tons come from biological activity in the earth’s oceans 90 billion tons come from sources such as volcanoes and decaying plants 6 billion tons from human activity CO2 is a nutrient not a pollutant. All life, plants and animals benefit from it. ~99.72% of the “greenhouse” effect is due to natural causes - water vapor and traces of other gases. Eliminating human activity altogether would have little impact on climate change. Recent observations shows a cooling trend? Focus should be on adapting to climate change and cleaning the environment for healthy living. 1. Accept that the earth’s climate is continuously changing 2. Continue to study the science of climate change and understand what changes are coming 3. Continue to find ways to adapt to climate change 4. Continue to find ways to recycle 5. Continue to find ways not to pollute the air 6. Continue to find ways not to pollute the oceans 7. Continue to find ways to feed the population of the world 8. Continue to find alternate fuels and energy Humans need to engage in a grass root effort where everyone is responsible for their piece of earth and start from the area they live, to the neighborhood, to the city, to the county, to the state, to the country, to the world. Weather Research Center 5104 Caroline St. Houston, Texas 77004 713-529-3076 www.wxresearch.com or www.wxresearch.org