Download US economic data showed mixed trends in hous

March 24, 2017
U.S. economic data showed mixed trends in housing and ongoing improvement in the manufacturing sector. The biggest economic news came from financial markets with some profit taking in stocks on Tuesday and
from Washington where political power struggles are
challenging healthcare reform.
The stall in healthcare reform suggests there is
some downside risk to the pro-growth Trump Administration agenda. Healthcare impacts the budget. The budget
impacts tax reform. Tax reform impacts trade policy. All
the above impact the Administration’s ability to pull off a
major infrastructure program.
Existing home sales fell in February by 3.7 percent
to hit a 5,480,000 unit annual rate. With weaker sales,
very tight inventories increased a bit, to a still tight 3.8
months’ worth. The median sales price was up 7.7 percent in February over the previous 12 months.
New home sales were better than expected in
February, increasing by 6.1 percent to a 592,000 unit annual rate in a continuation of the upward trend in new
home sales that began in 2011.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance for the
Survey
Fed Funds Rate (Effective)
week ending March 18 increased by 15,000, to hit
258,000, which is still a very low number. Continuing
claims for the week ending March 11 fell by 39,000, to hit
an even two million. Continuing claims look like they are
levelling out near the late-cycle lows of 1988 and 2000.
New orders for durable goods increased by 1.7
percent in February after a 2.3 percent gain in January.
Commercial aircraft orders were strong in both months.
The core measure, nondefense capital goods excluding
aircraft, was little changed in January and February.
U.S. and global economic fundamentals continue
to look good, which should provide a floor for downward
momentum in stocks.
Oversupply in the U.S. and globally is putting
downward pressure on oil prices. WTI crude oil fell from
over $53 per barrel in early March to about $49 in midMarch, and fell again to $47.50 at mid-week. Lower oil
prices reduce inflationary pressure, suggesting marginal
downside potential for Fed rate hikes.
We believe that the Fed still needs to set expectations for the second half of the year. Those expectations
will be shaped in part by oil and politics.
Last Actual
Comerica Economics Commentary
0.66 %
After increasing the fed funds rate range on
Wednesday, the Fed will stand pat on May 3. We
look for the next fed funds rate hike to come in
June or July.
(after the FOMC meeting of 5/2-5/3)
(Feb)
January Case-Shiller 20-City (3/28, Tuesday)
5.6 %
Consensus: 5.7 percent
(Dec)
2016Q4 GDP, 3rd Estimate (3/30, Thursday)
1.9 %
Consensus: 2.0 percent
2016Q4 GDP Price Index 3rd Est. (3/30, Thursday)
Consensus: 2.0 percent
Up by 5.6 percent over the previous 12 months.
Tight inventory will support ongoing price gains in
the single-family market.
Revised slightly to a 2.0 percent annualized growth
rate. This will not be a consequential data release.
(2nd Est.)
2.0 %
Unchanged.
(2nd Est.)
February Personal Income (3/31, Friday)
0.4 %
Consensus: 0.4 percent
(Jan)
February Personal Spending (3/31, Friday)
0.2 %
Consensus: 0.2 percent
(Jan)
Up by 0.4 percent. Supported by strong job growth
in February.
Up by 0.2 percent. Weighed down by stalled auto
sales and warm February weather.
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reflects the thoughts and opinions of the noted authors only, and such information does not necessarily reflect the thoughts and opinions of Comerica or its management team. We are not offering or soliciting any transaction based on
this information. We suggest that you consult your attorney, accountant or tax or financial advisor with regard to your situation. Although information has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, neither the authors nor
Comerica guarantee its accuracy, and such information may be incomplete or condensed. Neither the authors nor Comerica shall be liable for any typographical errors or incorrect data obtained from reliable sources or factual information.
March/April 2017
MONDAY
TUESDAY
20
WEDNESDAY
21
THURSDAY
22
EXISTING HOME SALES
(ths)
Dec
Jan
Feb
FRIDAY
23
UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS
(ths)
Dec Jan
Feb Mar
255
231 231
249
268
271 248
243
265
264 254
258
282
258 210
240
5,510
5,690
5,480
24
ADV DURABLE GOODS
Total Ex-Transp
Dec
Jan
Feb
-0.9%
2.3%
1.7%
0.9%
0.2%
0.4%
NEW HOME SALES
(ths-SAAR)
Dec
Jan
Feb
CFNAI
530
558
592
Kansas City Fed Survey
27
28
CASE-SHILLER HPI COMP-20
(SA)
Oct
Nov
Dec
190.5
192.2
194.0
Richmond Fed Survey
Consumer Confidence
TX MFG Survey
29
April 3
TRADE BALANCE
(bln)
Nov
-$45.5
Dec
-$44.3
Jan
-$48.5
31
INCOME and SPENDING
Income Spending
Nov
0.2%
0.2%
Dec
0.3%
0.5%
Jan
0.4%
0.2%
U of M Consumer
Sentiment (Final)
Pending Home Sales
4
AUTO SALES
(mln-SAAR)
Dec
18.4
Jan
17.6
Feb
17.6
30
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
Real GDP Price Index
‘16Q2
1.4%
2.3%
‘16Q3
3.5%
1.4%
‘16Q4
1.9%
2.0%
5
6
ISM NON-MFG INDEX
Dec
56.6
Jan
56.5
Feb
57.6
7
EMPLOYMENT REPORT
U. Rate
Jobs (ths)
Dec
Jan
Feb
4.7%
4.8%
4.7%
+155
+238
+235
ISM MFG INDEX
Dec
54.5
Jan
56.0
Feb
57.7
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING
Nov
Dec
Jan
1.5%
0.1%
-1.0%
ADP Employment
FOMC Minutes
10
11
Consumer Credit
12
13
14
PRODUCER PRICE INDEX
Total
Core
Dec
Jan
Feb
0.2%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
Dec
Jan
Feb
RETAIL SALES
Total Ex-Autos
1.0%
0.4%
0.6%
1.2%
0.1%
0.2%
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
Total
Core
Dec
Jan
Feb
NFIB
JOLTS
U of M Consumer
Sentiment (Prelim)
0.3%
0.6%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
Business Inventories