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Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India ([email protected]) Presentation for the COP12 and COP/MOP2 side-event “Global Challenges toward Low-Carbon Society (LCS) through Sustainable Development (SD)” Nairobi, Kenya, November 8, 2006 Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies Why should “Development and Climate” actions be aligned? Climate change is a derivative problem of development Development is the key to mitigative and adaptive capacities Dealing with climate change exclusively is very expensive & expected to cost several trillion dollars over this century Strategies for dealing with sustainable development and climate change have many common elements, and aligning these would deliver co-benefits Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies Aligning Development and Climate by Shifting the Frontier Climate Quality Economic/social Indicator National Development Targets Economic/social Indicator Climate Goal Technology & Institutional Innovations; Co-benefits Climate Quality Overcoming Conflict by Shifting the “frontier” though: • • • • • Innovations in technology & institutions Targeted technology innovations, investment and deployment Aligning diverse interests of multiple stakeholder Sequence of policies and measures to accrue co-benefits International and regional cooperation Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies Mainstreaming Climate Change in National Development MDG, India’s National Targets and Climate Change MDG and global targets India’s National plan targets Interface with Climate Change Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger • Double the per capita income by 2012 Targets: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people with income below $1 a day and those who suffer from hunger • Income effect would enhance choices for cleaner fuels and adaptive capacity • Contain population growth to 16.2% between 2001-2011 Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability • Increase in forest cover to 25% by 2007 and 33% by 2012 (from 23% in 2001) Targets: Integrate SD principles in country policies/ programs to reverse loss of environmental resources • Sustained access to potable drinking water to all villages by 2007 Target: Halve by 2015 the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water • Reduce poverty ratio by 15% by 2012 • Electrify 80,000 additional villages by 2012 via decentralized sources • Cleaning of all major polluted rivers by 2007 and other notified stretches by 2012 Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies • Reduce GHG Emissions due to lower population • Enhanced sink capacity, reduced GHG and local emissions; lower fossil imports; reduced pressure on land, resources and ecosystems • Higher adaptive capacity to from enhanced supply of water, health & education in rural areas Influencing Energy Transitions Percentage of Primary Energy Consumption 80% How to transit to Modern Biomass? 60% Food Security? Traditional Biomass 40% Domestic Resource: +ve Coal Direct Employment: +ve Oil 20% Fuel Supply? Waste disposal? Nuclear Safety? 0% 1952 1960 1970 1980 1990 Energy Security: -ve Foreign Exchange: -ve En. Security: +Ve Geopolitical Risk: High Gas Foreign Exchange: -ve Hydro 2001 Regional water disputes? Indirect Benefits Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies South-Asia Energy Cooperation Integrated South-Asia Energy Market Spillover Benefits: • 16 MW additional Hydropower • Flood control • Lower energy prices would enhance competitiveness of regional industries Benefit (Saving) Cumulative $ Billion % GDP from 2010 to 2030 Energy 60 Exa Joule 321 0.87 CO2 Equiv. 5.1 Billion Ton 28 0.08 SO2 50 Million Ton 10 0.03 359 0.98 Total Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies CO2 Emissions Saved by Electricity Reforms 1.10 Baselines of Carbon Content of Electricity Fossil Electricity w/o Reforms Fossil Electricity with Reforms Kg (Carbon Dioxide) / KWh 0.90 Total Electricity w/o Reforms Cumulative CO2 not Emitted: 140 million ton Total Electricity with Reforms 0.70 0.50 1990 1992 1994 1996 Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies 1998 2000 2001 Sustainable Development & Climate: Impacts on Infrastructure Monsoon Rainfall (2050) Maintenance Cost Curve Increase in Climate Intensity and Variability Probability of Occurrence Change Presentlimate C More number of days with >200 mm rainfall Very high number of days with >200 mm rainfall Less number of days with >200 mm rainfall Light and spread -over rain Future Climate Heavy and Number of days with concentrated rain > 200mm rainfall Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies Repair and Maintenance Costs Increase in mean and variability due to Climate 2000 Cost with adverse Climate Change and Deforestation Cost with adverse Climate Change Conventional Bath-Tub Curve 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Conclusions Opportunities to mainstream climate concerns in development actions exist everywhere; and more so in developing countries. Climate centric actions could miss opportunities which may deliver development and climate co-benefits. Pathways to “Low Carbon” and “Climate Resistant” societies are best found if viewed through the sustainability lens. Cost-effective transition to Low Carbon Society is not automatic. It would require crafting strategies that align development and climate policies and actions through sustainability goals. Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies