Download Cynthia Rosenzweig - Observing impacts

Observed Impacts of Climate Change
Potential AIACC Contributions
Cynthia Rosenzweig
AIACC Project Development Workshop
Trieste, Italy
June, 2002
[email protected]
IPCC
Definition of Climate Change
A statistically significant variation in either
the mean state of climate or in its variability,
persisting for an extended period
(typically decades or longer).
Climate change may be due to internal processes
or external forcings, or to persistent
anthropogenic changes in the composition
of the atmosphere or in land use.
IPCC Working Group I
“A collective picture of a warming world”
Observed temperature trends (1970-2000)
1970-2000
Temperature (°C)
<-1.5
-1
-5
0
0
.5
1
1.5
2 2.5>
No Data
GISS, 2001
IPCC WG II “Recent regional climate changes . . . have
already affected many physical and biological systems.”
Studies using
remote sensing
Rosenzweig and Iglesias, 2001
Physical and Biological Systems
• Hydrology and Glaciers: Glacier retreat, decrease
in snow-cover extent/earlier snowmelt, reduction
in annual duration of lake and river ice
• Sea Ice: Decline in sea-ice extent and thickness
• Animals and Plants: Poleward and elevational
shifts in range, change in species abundance,
phenology (earlier reproduction and migration),
physiological and morphological adaptation
High Altitude and High Latitude Changes
70
60
Mountain vegetation
Grabherr et al., 1997
50
40
30
f hist.
f present
20
10
Altitudes of summits
0
2800
2900 3000 3100 3200 3300 3400 3500
Length (days)
Altitude (m)
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
Length of growing season, Finland
140
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
Year
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
Carter, 1998
Criteria and Confidence Estimation
• Studies examined >600 species
10% showed no change
90% showed change
20% changed in unexpected way
80% changed in expected way
• Probability that 452 species out of 564 are
changing in expected direction by chance alone
is highly negligible (P<<0.00001)
• Impact shows trend over time, temperature
shows trend over time, impact and temperature
are functionally related. >/= 20 years
IPCC WG II “There are preliminary indications that some
human systems have been affected by recent
increases in floods and droughts.”
Rainfall fluctuations in the Sahel
St.dev.
2
1
0
-1
-2
1901
1921
1941
1961
1981
Year
IPCC WGII, 2001
Maximum Normalized Difference
Vegetation Index
-0.2 -0.1
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
0.8
NOAA AVHRR
Human Systems
Preliminary Indications that Some Human Systems
Have been Affected by Recent Increases in
Floods and Droughts
1. Some part of upward trend in historical disaster
losses due to flooding in North America (Pielke and
Downton, 2001).
2. Persistent drying trend in parts of Africa has
affected food production, including freshwater
fisheries, industrial and domestic water supplies,
hydropower generation (Magadza, 1996; Benson
and Clay, 1998; Chifamba, 2000).
IPCC WGII TAR, 2001
Caveats
• Length of time-series, number of replications,
census sites, species, availability of
climate data
• Presence of multiple factors
Land-use change, pollution, biotic invasion
• Spatial scales of climate and impacts processes
• Human system impacts especially difficult to prove
Research Questions
• How can effects of changing regional climates best
be detected?
• Are observed effects of regional climate changes
consistent with functional understanding and
modeled predictions of impacts?
• Do observed effects provide information about
adaptation and vulnerability to climate change?
• Are impacts of observed climate trends prevalent
across diverse systems, multiple sectors, and
geographic regions?
• Is there a coherent signal in patterns of observed
impacts?
Potential AIACC Contributions
• Wide geographical and system distribution
of studies on observed climate change**
• Physical and Biological Systems***
• Human Systems***
Agriculture, Food Security, Health,
Water Resources
• Sea-level Rise, Coastal Zones***, Urban Areas
• Impacts and Adaptations***
**Rising temperature, trends in extreme events
Observed Impacts Research
Metro East Coast
Trends
TEMPERATURE (F)
Climate
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
52
50
48
Slope=.2 F / Decade
46
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
PRECIPITATION (INCHES)
Historical
54
65
PRECIPITATION
60
55
50
45
40
35
Slope=.1 Inches / Decade
30
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
NOTE: 23 station average, corrected for urban heat island effect
Rosenzweig and Solecki, 2001
Incidence of asthma
Public Health
1.2 (+/- 0.5) Adm in NYC/100ppb
ozone/day/1,000,000 people
Trend in Tmax
Thurston et al., 1992
Observed days/year tmax>90F
30
Slope=+3.39 days per decade
Days
25
20
15
MEC, 2001
10
5
0
79
82
85
88
91
94
Projected increase in MEC
hospital admissions
2030
819
2100 3,319
Kinney, Shindell, et al., 2001
MEC, 2001
Household
income
Stakeholder:
NYC of
Department
of Health
Stakeholder: New York
City Department
Health
Kinney et al., 2001
Sea-level Rise, Infrastructure, and
Wetland Loss
Christopher Small, LDEO/Columbia University, 2000
Jacob et al., 2001
Hartig et al., 2001
Stakeholders: Port Authority of New York and New Jersey
National Park Service, Gateway National Recreation Area
Climate Data
• Regional trends in temperature, precipitation,
variability
• Timeframe varies with system and focus
• Observed met. data ~1860 - present
• Climate shift ~1976
• Monthly data adequate for many studies
• Gridded vs. site data
Links to Monitoring Programs
• IGBP PAGES, NASA/INPE LAMBADA, GCOS
• LTER sites, MAB Biosphere Reserves
Links to Population and Land-Use Data
• CIESIN population data
• UMD, EROS land-use change data