Download Global Warming: One Reason for Sustainability

GLOBAL
WARMING
One Reason for “Sustainability”
1941
2004
GLOBAL
WARMING
KCC Convocation
Fall 2015
Muir Glacier, Alaska
Photos William Field/Bruce Molnia
1941
2004
What we know
1. Greenhouse gases warm Earth’s surface.
2. CO2 is a greenhouse gas.
3. CO2 in the atmosphere is increasing.
4. The increase is rapid, substantial, and
from human activities.
5. Therefore…_________???
 What will happen to global temperature?
Is CO2 in the atmosphere increasing?
Start
1957
2015
http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/
CO2 increasing rapidly & substantially
https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/
How hot will it get? When? What will
that mean?
1. How much warmer is it now?
2. What are future projections?
3. How has the climate system responded?
Temperatures are increasing
Thermometers say “YES!”
Temperatures are increasing
90% of the Greenhouse
warming goes in the oceans!
(surface to 6000 ft deep)
Ocean data taken from Domingues et al 2008, Nature 453, 1090-1093.
http://skepticalscience.com/
PROJECTIONS
IPCC scenarios for 2090:
Mid-range: 5.3°F increase
High-end: 8.6°F increase
Last Glacial Max (~20,000 yrs ago) was
only 9°F cooler
A few degrees = BIG CHANGE
El Nino/La Nina, 2°F-3°F in small region
Rising Seas
http://skepticalscience.com/global-warmingstopped-in-1998-intermediate.htm
Evidence of a Warming World
Melting: Glaciers, Ice Sheets,
Snowpack, Sea Ice
Austrian Alps, 1875 vs 2004
Melting Ice
warming in every ocean
Melting Permafrost
Shishmaref, AK
Disappearing Arctic Sea Ice
http://skepticalscience.com/global-warmingstopped-in-1998-intermediate.htm
Melting Ice Sheets
Evidence of a warming world
Unusual & (mostly) Warmer Weather
http://skepticalscience.com/global-warmingstopped-in-1998-intermediate.htm
Evidence of a warming world
Fire
Alaska Interagency Coordination Center, June 2015
CURRENT IMPACTS in HAWAII
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Decreasing NE Trade Winds
Less Rainfall and Streamflow
Sea Level Rise (Erosion, coastal flooding)
Warmer Ocean (Humidity, Hurricanes)
Ocean Acidification (Corals, etc.)
Health (Heat, Range of Disease)
FUTURE IMPACTS for HAWAII
http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/coasts/sealevel/
Solid Science
Calls for Action
Every Relevant American Scientific Society: AMS, APS,
AAAS, AAS, AGU, GSA, ACS, etc.
Relevant US Govt Agencies: DOD, Dept.Energy, EPA,
NASA, NOAA, USGS, USFS, etc.
2001 Joint statement of National Academies of Science
from 16 nations.
2014 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change:
“Human influence on the climate system is clear”
Sound Economics
Calls for Action
“It will be difficult or impossible to reverse these
changes. Tackling climate change is the pro-growth
strategy for the longer term, and it can be done in a
way that does not cap the aspirations for growth of
rich or poor countries. The earlier effective action is
taken, the less costly it will be.” – The Stern Review
on the Economics of Climate Change
Commissioned by the UK Prime Minister in 2006.
Sound Morals
Call for Action
Religious leaders and Institutions representing many faiths call for action:
Baha'i
Buddhism
Christianity - Roman Catholic
Christianity - Eastern Orthodox
Christianity - Protestant Denominations and Organizations
Confucianism
Daoism
Hinduism
Indigenous Traditions
Islam
Jainism
Judaism
Shinto
Interfaith
http://fore.yale.edu/climate-change/statements-from-world-religions/
Sound Morals
Call for Action
Example: Pope Benedict’s Encyclical on Climate
Change in May 2014:
“Climate change is a global problem with grave
implications: environmental, social, economic,
political and for the distribution of goods.” “It
represents one of the principal challenges facing
humanity in our day.”
GOOD NEWS!
• We can solve the problem
• The sooner we act, the better
• One hot reason for “Sustainability”
Further Info
for Technical and Everyday readers
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http://skepticalscience.org
http://earththeoperatorsmanual.com/
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/
http://ipcc.ch (Technical)
http://merchantsofdoubt.org (+book, +movie)
http://realclimate.org (Technical)
How do we know its US?
Example: It’s Not the Sun!
http://solar-center.stanford.edu/sun-on-earth/glob-warm.html