Download Application of AIM/Material Model

AIM/Material Model
Application to India and Japan
Ashish RANA
National Institute for Environmental Studies
Session 7: Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM):
Applications / Case Studies
APEIS Capacity Building Workshop on
Integrated Environment Assessment in the Asia Pacific Region
October 24-26, 2002
Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi, India
Coverage in this workshop
• Summary (Session 4)
For understanding AIM/Material model
– What is AIM/Material model?
– Model formulation
– Necessary data for simulation
– Future scenario
• Training (Session 5)
– Operation of AIM/Material model
• Application (This session)
– Application of AIM/Material model to India and Japan
Application of AIM/Material model
• Model
– Basic economic structure is the same as the
training model
– The differences are as follows;
• Disaggregate the environmental industry
• More detailed solid waste type
• Three types of waste treatment: direct final disposal,
direct reuse, and intermediate treatment.
Overview of complex model
Government
Tax, subsidy,
public service, and
public investment
Household
Final consumption
Investment
Market
Production
sector
Waste
Solid
waste management
Resource input
Reuse
Intermediate
treatment
Disposal
Final disposal site
Env.
industry
CO2
Capital Labor Energy
Other inter- Pollution
mediate input
Resource input
Environmental Investment
Application of AIM/Material model
• Application to India
– simulation of toxic waste reduction
– simulation of mitigation of economic
impact by introducing countermeasures
• Application to Japan
– simulation of CO2 reduction (Kyoto target)
– simulation of final disposal of solid waste
– simulation of mitigation of economic
impact by introducing countermeasures
- Application of AIM/Material to India -
Sectors of AIM/Material [India]
ID
Sector/Commodity
Sector/Commodity
AGR
Agriculture, forestry, fishing
WTR
Water supply
MIN
Mining
SRV
Services
FOD
Food
MWM
Municipal waste management
TEX
Textiles
IWM
Industrial waste management
PLP
Paper and pulp
EMC
Environment industry
CHM
Chemicals
GOV
Government service
NMM
Non-metallic mineral products
COL
Coal
BMT
Basic metals
OIL
Oil
FMT
Fabricated metals
GAS
Gas
MCH
Machinery
HYD+
Hydro power generation
ELM
Electrical machinery
THE+
Thermal power generation
TRE
Transport equipment
NUC+
Nuclear power generation
OTH
Other manufacturing
ELE*
Electricity
CNS
Construction
* Only Commodity
+
ID
Only Sector
- Application of AIM/Material to India -
Waste categories of AIM/Material [India]
Ash
Waste plastic
Sludge
Waste paper
Waste oil
Waste textile
Waste wood
Animal and plant waste
Slag
Scrap metal
Construction waste
Waste glass
Dust
Other waste
Toxic waste
Left column represents industrial waste classification.
Right column represents both industrial and municipal
waste classification.
- Application of AIM/Material to India -
Waste to goods in AIM/Material [India]
AGR
ASH
SLD
WOL
WPL
WPP
WWD
WTX
WAP
SCM
WGC
SLG
WCT
DST
WZZ
WWT
TEX
PLP
CHM BMT
OTH
NMM
FMT
- Application of AIM/Material to India -
Scenarios for policy analysis
using AIM/Material [India]
• Scenario 1
– Reference scenario – no interventions
• Scenario 2
– Toxic Constraint Scenario – limit the
discharge of toxic wastes.
• Scenario 3
– Countermeasures – environmental
investment with waste management
efficiency improvement
- Application of AIM/Material to India -
GDP change of reference case
250
Rs. trillion
(Constant 1993-94 prices)
Historical
200
Simulated (Scenario 1)
150
100
50
0
1970
1980
1990
Year
2000
2010
- Application of AIM/Material to India -
Trajectory of final disposal waste
1.8
Index (1994 = 1)
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
Non-toxic (reference case)
Non-toxic (toxic waste constraint case)
Toxic (reference case)
Toxic (toxic waste constraint case)
0.8
0.6
0.4
1994
1998
2002
Year
2006
2010
- Application of AIM/Material to India -
GDP change due to toxic waste constraint
and GDP mitigation by introduction of policy
Year
Rs. billion
(Constant 1993-94 prices)
2009
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
toxic waste constraint
without policy
-5
toxic waste constraint with
policy
-6
2010
- Application of AIM/Material to India -
Output changes in each sector
in 2010 over reference case
1.20
1.15
1.10
Toxic waste constraint without policy
Toxic waste constraint with policy
1.00
0.95
0.90
0.85
0.80
AGR
MIN
FOD
TEX
PLP
CHM
NMM
BMT
FMT
MCH
ELM
TRE
OTH
CNS
WTR
SRV
GOV
MW
IWM
COL
OIL
GAS
THE
HYD
NUC
Index
1.05
Example of AIM/Material Model
• Application to India
– simulation of toxic waste reduction
– simulation of mitigation of economic
impact by introducing countermeasures
• Application to Japan
– simulation of CO2 reduction (Kyoto target)
– simulation of final disposal of solid waste
– simulation of mitigation of economic
impact by introducing countermeasures
- Application of AIM/Material to Japan -
Sectors and commodities of AIM/Material [Japan]
sector
commodity
Agriculture, forestry & fisheries
Mining except energy
Coking coal
Coal mining
Coal for general use, lignite, anthracite
Crude oil mining
Natural gas mining
food
textile mill products
lumber, wood products, pulp, paper & paper products
chemical & allied products
plastic
ceramic, stone, & clay products
iron, steel, non-ferrous metals & products
non-ferrous metals & products
fabricated metal products
general machinery
electrical machinery, equipment & supplies
transportation equipment
precision instruments & machinery
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Construction
Steam & hot water supply
Water supply
Wholesale & retail trade
Finance & insurance
Real estate
sector
commodity
Transportation & communications
Education, research, medical service, health & hygiene,
& social welfare
Goods renting & leasing
Car & machine repairing
Other service
Government service
Environmental industry
Sewage service
Municipal solid waste treatment service
Industrial solid waste treatment service
Coke
Manufacture of coal products Other coal products
Paving materials
Gasoline
Jet fuel oil
Kerosene
Light oil
Manufacture of petroleum
Heavy oil
Naphtha
LPG
Other petroleum products
Manufacture of gas
Town gas
Thermal power generation
Electricity
Hydro power generation
Nuclear power generation
- Application of AIM/Material to Japan -
Classification of solid waste in AIM/Material [Japan]
ash
sludge
slush, waste oil
waste acid
waste alkali
waste plastics
waste paper
waste wood
waste fiber and textile
animal and plants wastes
waste rubber
metal trash, scrap metal
waste glass
slag
construction and demolition waste
dust, soot
animal excrement
animal carcass
Yellow cells represent both industrial waste and municipal waste
classification.
White cells represent industrial waste classification.
- Application of AIM/Material to Japan -
Trillion yen at 1995 prices
GDP change of Japan
in reference case
600
580
560
540
520
500
480
460
440
1995
2000
2005
Year
Actual values
Calculated values
2010
- Application of AIM/Material to Japan -
GDP loss due to CO2 reduction
& final disposal reduction of wastes
2000
Year
2005
2010
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
-1.2
-1.4
0.2% of GDP
GDP loss
GDP change
[tri. Yen at 1995 price]
0.0
- Application of AIM/Material to Japan -
Mitigation of GDP loss by
various countermeasures
GDP change
[tri. Yen at 1995 price]
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
-1.2
-1.4
Mitigation by green
consumption
Mitigation by subsidy to
waste treatment
Mitigation by technology
improvement
Mitigation by env.
industry & investment
2010
GDP loss
2000
Year
2005
Future activities
• Application of AIM/Material to other
countries
• Simulation of other countermeasures
• Linkage to AIM/Emission and AIM/CGE
• Including other environments such as
natural assets