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Modelling plant response to nitrogen atmospheric deposition in some French ecosystems: progress and limits Simon RIZZETTO1,2, Salim BELYAZID3, Noémie GAUDIO1,2, Arnaud MANSAT1,2, Harald SVERDRUP4, Anne PROBST1,2 En collaboration avec : Jean-Claude GÉGOUT5, Emmanuel CORCKET6, Didier ALARD6, Manuel NICOLAS7 1 Toulouse University; INP, UPS; EcoLab (Laboratoire écologie fonctionnelle et environnement) ENSAT, Avenue de l’Agrobiopole F-31326 Castanet Tolosan, France 2 CNRS; EcoLab F-31326 Castanet Tolosan 3 Belyazid Consulting and Communication AB Österportsgatan 5C S-21128 Malmö, Sweden 4 Applied 5 UMR Systems Analysis and Dynamics Group, Chemical Engineering, Lund University, Box 124 S-22100 Lund, Sweden LERFoB, AgroParisTech – ENGREF – INRA, 14 rue Girardet, F54042 Nancy cedex, France 6 UMR BioGeco, INRA, Université Bordeaux1, Site de Recherches Forêt Bois de Pierroton, 69 route d'Arcachon, 33612 CESTAS Cedex – France 7 Office National des Forêts, Direction Forêts et Risques Naturels, Département R&D, Boulevard de Constance, F-77300 Fontainebleau, France Context Coupled biogeochemical – ecological modelling Impact of atmospheric deposition scenarios on forest ecosystems final goals = to formulate nitrogen dose-response relationships at a regional scale to upscale from individual sites to quantify “no net loss of biodiversity” ForSAFE-VEG model improvement of input data climate change scenarios VEG table Species richness National scale ICP forest network Improvement of the modelling approach EUNIS habitats classification Plants ecological response, biodiversity indicators 24TH CCE WORKSHOP AND 30TH TASK FORCE MEETING / Simon RIZZETTO Rome, 7th April 2014 2 Presentation outline I) Material and methods: i. sites presentation ii. input deposition scenarios iii. model and validation II) Results: i. results ii. analysis III) Prospects: i. biodiversity indices ii. vegetation response 24TH CCE WORKSHOP AND 30TH TASK FORCE MEETING / Simon RIZZETTO Rome, 7th April 2014 3 I.i. Sites presentation Data source: Number of sites Operation types 102 Site description Trees inventory and dendrometric measures French ICP-Forest Network (ONF – RENECOFOR) Dendrochronology - Part of the European network for forest health survey (since 1992) Phenology Observations: defoliation, pathological symptoms… Take litter fall samples Leaves analysis 2 soils description and analysis Inventories of vegetation ecology Meteorological data - Hundred forest sites Phytoecological surveys, list of plants 17 Open field and throughfall deposition Fog analysis Soil solution concentration and fluxes 24TH CCE WORKSHOP AND 30TH TASK FORCE MEETING / Simon RIZZETTO Rome, 7th April 2014 4 I.i. EUNIS classification Two methods: EUNIS = Corine land cover 2006 x French potential vegetation (Leguédois et al., 2010 ) 1 Map of French EUNIS forest habitats Some problems e.g.: Spruce site in G1.6 (Fagus woodland) !! exhaustive plant species list on each site (ICP forest network) use of EUNIS key to determine habitats Similarity Or correspondence problem 0 62,5 125 250 1 375 500 Kilometers Ü Leguédois, Sophie and Party, Jean-Paul and Dupouey, Jean-Luc and Gauquelin, T. and Gégout, Jean-Claude and Lecareux, Caroline and Badeau, Vincent and Probst, Anne La carte de végétation du CNRS à l'ère du numérique. (2011) European Journal of Geography . ISSN 1278-3366 24TH CCE WORKSHOP AND 30TH TASK FORCE MEETING / Simon RIZZETTO Rome, 7th April 2014 5 I.i. Sites selection code_place CHS41 CPS77 Site EPC08 Essence Intitule_EUNIS_niveau3 lambertx lamberty Type niveau_1 niveau_2 niveau_3 niveau_4 niveau_5 Chêne sessile Boisements acidophiles dominés par Quercus 518900 2286000 M G TreeChêne Mélange pédonculé - sessile dominant species Epicéa commun CHS41 Sessile oak EPC63 Epicéa commun EPC87 EPC87 HET30 HET64 SP57 SP05 SP11 SP38 Boisements acidophiles dominés par Quercus 2383900 Type M EUNIS habitat Loc. 628100 Altitude Plantations très artificielles de conifères 777600 2552800 M PlantationsQuercus très artificielles de Acidophilous North-W6489001272084000 m MM conifères dominated woodland Epicéa commun Norway Plantations très artificielles de conifères Highly artificial 559400 2088900 M Center-W6966006501902100 m FM Hêtraies coniferous plantations Hêtre Hêtraies 355900 1798700 M Abies and Picea Silver fir North-E 4001951700 m FF Sapin pectiné Forêts mixtes à Abies-Picea-Fagus 927900 woodlands Hêtre spruce 1762600 F 2053800 F G level_1 G1 G1 level_2 G1.8 G1.85 G1.81, G1.8 G1.85 level_3 level_4 level_5 G G3 G3.F G3.F1 G3.F11 GG G1 G3 G1.8 G3.F G1.85 G3.F1 G3.F11 G G3 G3.F G3.F1 G3.F11 GG G3 G1 G3.F G1.6 G3.F1 G1.672 G3.F11 G1.67 G GG G G G1 G3 G4 G4 G3 G1.6 G3.1 G4.6 G4.6 G3.1 G1.62 G1.622 à 624 G3.13 G3.132 G3.13 G3.132 Sapin pectiné Sapin pectiné Forêts mixtes à Abies-Picea-Fagus Boisements à Picea et à Abies 580600 896900 SP57 Sapin pectiné Boisements à Picea et à Abies 953600 2411900 F G G3 G3.1 G3.13 G3.1321 SP68 Sapin pectiné Boisements à Picea et à Abies 957500 G G3 G3.1 G3.13 G3.132 2337000 F Selection of 3 sites: Sessile oak, Norway spruce, Silver fir 24TH CCE WORKSHOP AND 30TH TASK FORCE MEETING / Simon RIZZETTO Rome, 7th April 2014 6 I.ii. Input deposition scenarios Deposition (eq.ha-1.yr-1) Input deposition scenarios 1200 1000 800 CLE 600 GP 400 MFR 200 BKD 0 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Année sites Oak < Spruce < Fir (for measured and modeled values) scenarios BKG < MFR < GP < CLE (for all sites and all pollutants) 24TH CCE WORKSHOP AND 30TH TASK FORCE MEETING / Simon RIZZETTO Rome, 7th April 2014 7 I.iii. Presentation of the model 24TH CCE WORKSHOP AND 30TH TASK FORCE MEETING / Simon RIZZETTO Rome, 7th April 2014 8 I.iii. ForSAFE-VEG: Biogeochemical-ecological coupled model OUTPUTS = cover, species composition, critical loads VEG Ecological model INPUTS Vegetation database = VEG Table (species ecological requirements) OUTPUTS ForSAFE Biogeochemical model INPUTS Climate Soil Forest management Nitrogen deposition (Sverdrup et al., 2007) 19th biennal ISEM Conference / Simon RIZZETTO Toulouse, 28th October 2013 9 I. iii. ForSAFE parameterization Always interacting with the modellers regular model improvements on: - - Input variables: hard work on original data units variables adapted representativity for ecological Model code and sites characteristics: integration of light requirements (Ellenberg et al., 1992; Gardiner et al., 2009) nitrogen foliar retention (Hagen-Thorn et al., 2006) relative foliar composition in terms of Basic Cations and Nitrogen (Sariyildiz and Anderson, 2005) fine roots distribution in the soil (Bolte and Löf, 2010; Bolte and Villanueva, 2006…) 24TH CCE WORKSHOP AND 30TH TASK FORCE MEETING / Simon RIZZETTO Rome, 7th April 2014 10 I. iii. Model validation Validation: soil solution data (example of one spruce site) Differences between measured and simulated data for nitrogen… underlined by many authors de Vries et al. 2010 STORM Two hypothesis: 1. lack of retroaction by the vegetation (Moore et al. 2007) development of the GRAFT module by Swedish modellers Comparisons between measured and simulated data: 2. impact of natural disturbances on the woodland Significative statistic tests Measured data Simulated data 24TH CCE WORKSHOP AND 30TH TASK FORCE MEETING / Simon RIZZETTO Rome, 7th April 2014 11 II. Results 24TH CCE WORKSHOP AND 30TH TASK FORCE MEETING / Simon RIZZETTO Rome, 7th April 2014 12 II.i. Results: deposition scenarios For each selected site: higher impact observed on CLE and GP scenarios on BSat and BC Deposition (eq.ha-1.yr-1) - Important similar variations in the soil solution response for each scenario Input deposition scenarios 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Année CLE GP MFR BKD Soil solution parameters are hardly impacted by deposition scenarios, but not only… 24TH CCE WORKSHOP AND 30TH TASK FORCE MEETING / Simon RIZZETTO Rome, 7th April 2014 13 II.ii. Results analysis ForSAFE improvement: forest management parameters as input data: - age of the woodland - past and future cuts calendar - species growth characteristics and wood volumes possibly collected Clear cut Clear cut Soil solution parameters are impacted by: - forest management (short time scale) - deposition scenarios (long time scale) 24TH CCE WORKSHOP AND 30TH TASK FORCE MEETING / Simon RIZZETTO Rome, 7th April 2014 14 II.i. Results: climate change scenarios - Impact of deposition scenarios (CLE > MFR) - Obvious impact of climate change by 2080 - Observation: Impactdeposition < ImpactClimate change - No difference between CC and deposition during short term periods after clear cuts Soil solution parameters impacted by: - forest management on a short time scale - deposition and climate change on a long time scale 24TH CCE WORKSHOP AND 30TH TASK FORCE MEETING / Simon RIZZETTO Rome, 7th April 2014 15 II.ii. results: biodiversity indices 70 Evolution of the number of species 60 29% 31% 39% Species number 50 40 53% 58% 69% 30 20 2010 MFR 49% 2100 GP 46% 54% CLE %: loss of biodiversity 10 0 Sessile oak 6.5 Norway Spruce Silver fir 26 pH evolution 25 6 C/N evolution 24 pH MFR CLE 5 GP C/N 2010 5.5 2100 23 2010 22 MFR CLE 21 GP 20 4.5 2100 19 4 Oak Spruce Fir 18 Oak Spruce Fir 24TH CCE WORKSHOP AND 30TH TASK FORCE MEETING / Simon RIZZETTO Rome, 7th April 2014 16 Conclusion - Discussion - ImpactCLE > ImpactMFR on basic cations and [N] in soil solution at century scale BUT - Climate change hardly impacts base saturation due to increase of mineralization i.e.: soil T°C = mineralization = [Basic cations] - Forest management impacts soil solution parameters on a short time scale - C/N and pH seem to not be sensitive enough to quantify “net loss of biodiversity” - Ecosystem, habitat and species effects exist actually 24TH CCE WORKSHOP AND 30TH TASK FORCE MEETING / Simon RIZZETTO Rome, 7th April 2014 17 III.ii. Prospects: vegetation response Work on the VEG table still in progress: - species biological characteristics and/or species physiological and ecological response - need to add simulation on vegetation with VEG table - and vegetation feedback with the GRAFT module - Input data extrapolation - Results extrapolation on all the 102 sites Spatialisation at a continue scale 24TH CCE WORKSHOP AND 30TH TASK FORCE MEETING / Simon RIZZETTO Rome, 7th April 2014 18 Thank you for your attention ! Simon RIZZETTO1,2, Salim BELYAZID3, Noémie GAUDIO1,2, Arnaud MANSAT1,2, Harald SVERDRUP4, Anne PROBST1,2 En collaboration avec : Jean-Claude GÉGOUT5, Emmanuel CORCKET6, Didier ALARD6, Manuel NICOLAS7 1 Toulouse University; INP, UPS; EcoLab (Laboratoire écologie fonctionnelle et environnement) ENSAT, Avenue de l’Agrobiopole F-31326 Castanet Tolosan, France 2 CNRS; EcoLab F-31326 Castanet Tolosan 3 Belyazid Consulting and Communication AB Österportsgatan 5C S-21128 Malmö, Sweden 4 Applied 5 UMR Systems Analysis and Dynamics Group, Chemical Engineering, Lund University, Box 124 S-22100 Lund, Sweden LERFoB, AgroParisTech – ENGREF – INRA, 14 rue Girardet, F54042 Nancy cedex, France 6 UMR BioGeco, INRA, Université Bordeaux1, Site de Recherches Forêt Bois de Pierroton, 69 route d'Arcachon, 33612 CESTAS Cedex – France 7 Office National des Forêts, Direction Forêts et Risques Naturels, Département R&D, Boulevard de Constance, F-77300 Fontainebleau, France