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1. Financial markets functioning
better
Difference between 3-month interbank rate and expected policy rate, basis
points (Basis spread)
400
400
Sweden
350
300
Lehman Brothers
350
Euro area
300
USA
Secure liquidity
prior to year-end
250
250
200
200
BNP
Paribas
150
Bear Sterns
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
Jan07
Apr07
Jul07
Oct07
Jan08
Apr08
Jul08
Oct08
Jan09
Apr09
Jul09
Oct09
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
2. Loan losses increasing
SEK billion net, totalled over four quarters, fixed prices, 31 March 2009
120
120
Results before loan losses
Loan losses
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Source: Finansial Stability Report 2009:1, the Riksbank
3. World GDP growth
Annual percentage change
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
70
75
80
85
90
Note. The broken column represents the Riksbank’s forecast.
95
00
05
10
Sources: The IMF and the Riksbank
4. Slow recovery
Quarterly changes in per cent calculated as annual rate, seasonallyadjusted data
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
-8
Euro area
-8
USA
-10
-10
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Note. Broken columns represent the Riksbank’s forecasts in July 2009.
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and the Riksbank
5. The oil price, Brent crude
USD per barrel
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
Outcome
Forward rates, average up to and including 25 June 2009
0
0
00
01
02
03
04
05
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecasts.
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank
6. Commodity prices
USD, Index 2000 = 100
240
240
Food
Other agricultural products
Metals
Total
220
200
220
200
180
180
160
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Source: The Economist
7. Consumer prices USA
Annual percentage change
6
6
CPI
5
CPI excluding energy and food
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and the OECD
8. Real house prices, USA
Index 1950 = 100
200
200
180
180
160
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
50
55
60
65
70
75
Note. Outcome up to end of Q1 2009.
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
Source: Robert J. Schiller, Princeton University
9. Signs of a turnaround
Purchasing managers’ index, index above 50 indicates growth
70
70
65
65
60
60
55
55
50
50
45
45
40
40
35
35
30
30
Sweden
Euro area
USA
25
25
20
20
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: Institute for Supply Management, NTC Research Ltd and the NIER
10. Consumer prices euro area
Annual percentage change
5
5
CPI
HICP excluding energy
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: Eurostat and the OECD
11. GDP abroad
Annual percentage change
Brazil
Russia
India
China
2008
5,1
5,6
7,3
9
2009
-1,3
-6,5
5,4
7,5
2010
2,5
1,5
6,5
8,5
Source: IMF July 2009
12. GDP in Sweden
Annual percentage change
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
-5
-5
-6
-6
00
01
02
03
04
05
Note. Broken columns represent the Riksbank’s forecasts.
06
07
08
09
10
11
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
13. Survey indicator
Index
120
120
Survey indicator
Mean value
+/- one standard deviation
115
115
110
110
105
105
100
100
95
95
90
90
85
85
80
80
75
75
70
70
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Source: National Institute of Economic Research (NIER)
14. Signs of a turnaround
Purchasing managers’ index, index above 50 indicates growth
70
70
65
65
60
60
55
55
50
50
45
45
40
40
35
35
30
30
Sweden
Euro area
USA
25
25
20
20
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: Institute for Supply Management, NTC Research Ltd and the NIER
15. Employment
Thousands, EU definition, 15-74 years of age, seasonally-adjusted data
4800
4800
4600
4600
4400
4400
4200
4200
4000
4000
3800
3800
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Note: The dotted line indicates the Riksbank’s forecast. Data prior to 2001 has been chained by the Riksbank
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
16. Unemployment
Percentage of workforce, EU definition, 15-74 years of age,
seasonally-adjusted data
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Note: The dotted line indicates the Riksbank’s forecast. Data prior to 2001 has been chained by the Riksbank
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
17. Inflation close to target
Annual percentage change
5
5
CPI
4
CPIF
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecasts.
07
08
09
10
11
12
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
18. Exchange rates
SEK per EUR and per USD respectively
12
12
SEK/ EUR
SEK/ USD
11
11
10
10
9
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
04
05
06
07
08
09
Source: Reuters EcoWin
19. Unit labour costs
Annual percentage change
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
Unit labour costs
Labour costs per hour
Productivity
-2
-3
94
96
98
-2
-3
00
02
Note. Broken lines and columns represent the Riksbank’s forecasts.
04
06
08
10
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
20. Inflation expectations
Annual percentage change
4.0
4.0
5 years
2 years
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Sources: The NIER and Prospera Research AB
21. Current account and public
finances
Per cent of GDP
12
12
Government net lending
Current account
8
8
4
4
0
0
-4
-4
-8
-8
-12
-12
90
92
94
96
98
00
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecasts.
02
04
06
08
10
12
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
22. Low repo rate over long
period of time
Per cent, quarterly average
7
7
6
6
90%
75%
50%
Repo rate
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Note. The uncertainty interval is calculated using historical forecasting errors.
12
Source: The Riksbank
23. Utilisation of resources
Percentage deviation from the HP trend
6
6
GDP
5
5
Employment
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
-5
-5
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
Note: The dotted line refers to the Riksbank’s forecast.
07
08
09
10
11
12
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank