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INTERACTIONS BEl'WEEN CONTINUOUS AND SHOWERY PRECIPITATION by Arnett Stanley Dennis, B.Sc. Being a thesis submitted to the Dean of the Faculty of Graduate Studies and Research, McGill University, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science. April, 1953 Physics Department MOntreal, Quebec AC Kl.~OHLEDGMENTS This thesis was prepared under the direction of Professor J.S. Marshall, whose sound advice and continued interest are deeply appreciated. Professor K.L.S. Gunn read several chapters and offered valuable suggestions. Advice, regarding the printing of photographs, was received from Mr. M.P. Langleben. Meteorological records, which were used in many phases of the work, were made available by the Meteorological Division of Canada. MT. H.M. Hutchon, Officer-in-Charge of the Main Meteorological Office, Montreal Airport, was especially helpful in providing necessary data. The film records used were prepared by various members of the Stormy 'o/eather Research Group, NcGill University, using equipment provided by the Defence Research Board of Canada. To aIl of the above, and to Professor author is most grateful. ~hrshaIl in particular, the ABSTRACT Examination of radar records shows that snow trails frequently occur around the tops of showers. can be initiated by snow trails. Evidence has been sought that showers Cumulus clouds with tops above the freezing level often fail to precipitate. Theoretical studies show that snow trails could act as seeding agents for cumulus clouds, entrainment providing the mechanism whereby snow enters a cloud. Certain observed radar patterns suggest strongly that showers were produced in this manner. As a check, polar diagrams can be used to organize observations made on different bearings. Those constructed show showers occurring in regions of snow trails more frequently than elsewhere. This is further evidence that snow can act as a seeding agent in cumulus clouds. TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter Page Title 1 INTRODUCTION 1 2 SHOWERS 4 :3 CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION 10 4 POSSIBLE !l10DES OF INTERACTION 13 5 VERTICAL SECTION 18 6 PLAN PATTERNS 25 7 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 30 REFERENCES 31 APPENDIX PATTElù~S DUE TO SEEDING Chapter l INTRODUCTION During World War II it was found that radar echoes were returned from precipitation particles. The first theoretical treatment of this new subject, which proved remarkably complete and accurate, had been published by Ryde in 1941. Fol1owing the re1ease of radar equipment at the end of the war, research in radar meteoro1ogy was undertaken in several countries. It was brought out early that radar echoes from showers and from continuous precipitation are different. On scopes showing a plan view, areas of continuous precipitation appear as patches of quite uniform echo. Showers, on the other hand, show as distinct small cells which are often arranged in larger-scale patterns. (Fig. 4.3). On radar pictures in vertical section, showers appear as intense, near1y vertical echoes of the order of 3 - 10 miles width. Echoes from continuous precipitation are generally more diffuse and extensive. often show shallow slopes as a result of wind shear. The patterns (Fig. 1.1). With continuous rain another distinctive characteristic appears. This is a region of intense echo, at or just below the freezing level, known as the bright band. An excellent account of the radar patterns associated with various meteoro1ogical situations is given by Ligda in the "Compendium of Meteorology" (1951). -2- / ./ 20 40 RANGE (MILES ) VERTICAL SECTION BEARING 215 0 , 1·{)NTREAL AIRPORT, 2134 GeT 3 AUGUST 1951 A trail of continuous snow appears as a streak sloping from 20,000' at extreme left to approximately 12,000' at 35 miles. Shower echoes appear at 25 to 35 and at 40 to 50 miles. Using film records of radar weather observations, members of the Storrny Weather Research Group at HcGill University have studied both showers (Gunn, 1947; Rigby (Smith), 1948) and continuous precipitation (Marshall, et al., 1952). In some cases the two types of echo appeared in close conjunction, as in Fig. 1.1, leading to suggestions of possible significant interactions. (Marshall, 1953). 11arshall's first suggestion is that the lightning discharges, which are sometimes observed by radar around the tops of thunderstorrns, occur between the thunderclouds and surrounding trails of falling snow. The second suggestion is that snow can act as a seeding agent to initiate showers in cumulus clouds. The investigation of these and other possible modes of interaction between showery and continuous precipitation is the object of this thesis . In Chapters 2 and 3 the atmospheric processes leading to -3- different precipitation forms are reviewed in the light of radar observations. The possible interactions are dealt with in the later Chapters. The 3 cm. radar set in use at the McGil1 Radar Weather Observatory, Montreal Airport for the past 4 years is not suitable for the detection of lightning echoes. As a result, no new data have been obtained, and Marshall's study remains the most complete to date. Patterns resulting from seeding of cumulus clouds by snow are derived for simple cases in Chapters 5 and 6. Radar pictures of similar form are presented as evidence that the process does occur. The importance of continuous precipitation in modifying the air around developing cumulus clouds is also noted. The conclusion is reached that, in general, the effect of passing trails of continuous precipitation is to promote shower activity. Plan diagrams, prepared from available records and showing cases in which shower activity i5 concentrated in regions of snow trails, are included. This concentration could be explained on the basis of either seeding of the cumulus clouds or moi stening of the envi ronme nt al air. It is generally assumed by forecasters in temperate zones that showers will not occur until cumulus tops reach a layer with a temperature of -IOC or less. If seeding by snow were to prove important, the figure -10 would have to be modified toward higher temperatures in cases where higher clouds aie present to produce snow. The moistening effect acts by increasing the height cumulus clouds can reach in a given situation; but the modification of forecasting rules to account for this effect would be more complex. -4Chapter 2 SHO\fERS Sho\ver acti vi ty is associated vli th currents of rising air. The word unstable is used to describe air in which vertical currents tend to develop; and stable to describe air in which vertical motions tend to be damped out. In general, unstable air is characterized by cU1lluli- form clouds, a possibility of showers or thunderstorms, and bU1llpy flying condi tions. Stable air is characterized by smooth flying conditions and, frequently, layers of smolce or haze. Any clouds present tend to be of the stratiform class. The stability of the atmosphere is a function of the vertical temperature distribution. The IIlapse rate" is defined as bT Y - - bz· Since temperature usually decreases with height, the lapse rate is generally positi ve. A small body of air (referred to as a parcel), when lifted a short distance, will continue to rise if it is warmer than its new surround1ngs. To study this factor it 1s necessary to lcnow the temperature changes that occur when a parcel of air moves up or down to a region of different pressure. For dry air the temperature change rate proves to be very nearly a constant. given by r ~ It is known as the dry adiabatic lapse rate and is 30 C/lOOO ft. (Hewson and Longley, 1944) The adiabatic lapse rate for moist air i5 a function of the water vapor content. However, for unsaturated air it is, for practical purposes, the same as the dry adiabatic lapse rate. -5\-le have, for unsaturated air, y ~ r y= r y>r air stable air neutral air unstable In the stable case a parcel of air displaced ei ther upwards or dO\ffiWards tends to return to its original position. In unstable air a displaced parcel is accelerated in such a 'ltray as to displace i t further. In the neutral case a displaced parcel is not accelerated in any direction. If the ascending air is cooled to i ts dew-point, condensation begins. The de'ltr-point i tself decreases slightly wi th height (He\.Json and Longley, 1944). Once condensation begins, cooling of the rising air is sloued by the release of latent heat of condensation. As the saturation vapor pressure is a function of pressure and temperature, the amount of heat released varies 'ltrith the circumstances. be assigned to ri, Therefore no constant value can the saturated adiabatic lapse rate. The stability of air with respect to rising (or sinking) currents of saturated air is determined as follO'ltTs. r' stable y = r' neutral y y If r ~ Y"l r' , <:: > ri unstable the air i s stable 'ltd th respect to currents of dry air, but unstable with respect to saturated air. This situation is called conditional instability. A straightforward application of the above criteria is known as the parcel method of forecasting. (Austin, 1951). convective currents Carl The height to 'ltrhich rise through an undisturbed environment is determined from thermodynamic diagrams. If the rising currents pass -6- '00 "":' IIQ t '--' Iq ca:. ':) \1) 800 II) lU ~ Il.. o -20 T E M P (c) FIG. 2.1 SIMPLIFIElJ THERMJDYNAMIC DIAGRAl\f SHOWING SAMPLE VERTICAL SOUNDING . A-B UNSTABLE B-C STABLE C-D CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE their condensation level, cumulus clouds are to be expected. The height at which the rising currents become colder than their environment is taken as the top of the cumuliform clouds. If cumulus clouds develop to a thickness of several thousand feet, showers become possible. Following the acceptance of the Bergeron theory, which attributes precipitation to the presence of ice in clouds, it was generally assumed that showers never occurred until the cloud top passed -7- the freezing level. Cases to the contrary have been reported in recent years. (Hoaghton, 1951). Turbulence has been suggested as the factor responsible for rain formation in these cases. (Marshall, 1952). On the other hand, many cumulus clouds with tops above the freezing level fail to pro duce raine This point will be dealt with further in a later chapter. Thunderstorms are likely to occur when large amounts of condensed water are present and the temperature at the cloud top is below -20 C. (Byers, 1951). Studies made during the Thunderstorm Project show that each thunderstorm consists of a number of cells. Each cell undergoes a life cycle which can be divided into three stages. The first, the cumulus stage, is characterized by an updraft throughout the celle The second, or mature stage, begins when the first rain falls out of the cloud. In this stage downdrafts develop, at least in the lower half of the celle the dissipating stage weak downdrafts are present throughout the celle ..... t 30,000 1 ~ t t J -+ --- t · . . r- - JO,OOO ~ t ~ ~ J. ~ \". JI E , __O_C_ ~ ../ \ ': \ --: /'/lAJ,J" \," ,t .' , 5 . . i -- ,-' * ri 1 , .... 1. l, , 1 '" MIL ES FIG. 2.2 CROSS-SECTION THROUGH THUNDERSTORM CELL IN MATURE STAGE In -8- One defect of the parc el method of forecasting is its assumption of an undisturbed environment. The "slice" method eliminates this error b,y assuming that envi ronme nt al air sinks adiabatically in compensation for the rising current. (Petterssen, 1940). The slice method still does not allow for exchange of air between the rising current and i ts environment. entrainment. (Austin, 1951). This mixing is referred to as "Observed inflow rates in American thunder- storms show that the cumulus cloud which develops into a thunderstorm entrains environmental air at a rate ••••• which doubles i ts mass as i t rises through a pressure decrease of 500 mb." (Byers, 1951). This mixing tends to reduce the difference between in-cloud and environmental temperatures. Furthermore, if the entrained air is dry, some cloud particles evaporate into it, causing further cooling of the cloud. It has been noted that thunderstorm tops sometimes ascend in a series of steps, each step appearing as a turret, or proturberance, on the cloud. Apparently each turret helps the following ones b,y increasing the moi sture in the air which must be entrained b,y the succeeding turret. (Byers, 1951). Where \.n.nd speed increases wi th height, entrainment is greater on the upwind side. On the dowm,1ind side it is possible for liquid cloud to be detrained fro!ll the field of rising motion. (Halkus, 1949). The concept of entrainment provides an explanation for the commonly observed fact that shower development is less probable when the air aloft is dry, or when marked wind shear is present. If cloud air, cooled at a rate greater than the saturated adiabatic lapse rate during its ascent, is dragged downward by falling rain, it will warm at only the saturated adiabatic lapse rate. This is because saturation is very nearly maintained b,y evaporation from the raine Thus the descending air will reach a position at which it is colder than the surrounding cloud- filled air. From there it will continue downward with accelerated motion to reach the ground as an outflow of cold air. This is the explanation for the temperature fall and gusty winds observed even in local thunderstorms. (Byers, 1951). -10- Coopter 3 CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION An air mass is an extensive body of air ..Ti th approximately uniform properties in any gi ven horizontal plane. Here "extensi ve" means that the body of air covers at least several hundred thousand square miles of the earth's surface. AlI the processes mentioned in the previous chapter occur wi thin any gi ven air mass; and the circulations descri bed are on a relatively small scale. For example, a typical thunderstorm covers only about 10 sq. miles. In addition to convective overturning, air masses are subject to rising or sinking motions as a . . lhole. These vertical motions are less rapid than those associated with convection. Ascending motion is generally found in regions of low pressure as a result of convergence. Wide-spread ascent is also found on the wind- ward slopes of mountain ranges. When two air masses having different temperatures, and hence different densities, occupy adjacent areas, the cold air mass forms a wedge undercutting the WarIn air. The surface of separation between the two air masses is called a frontal surface. Its slope is a function of the temperature difference between the air masses and of the wind shear through the surface. Slopes of frontal surfaces usually lie in the range .004 - .02. The line of intersection between a frontal surface and the earth's surface is known as a front. If the cold air is receding, its trailing edge is called a warm front; if cold air is advancing, its leading edge is called a cold front. Various other terms are used to describe discon- tinuities in the slopes of frontal surfaces, intersections between frontal surfaces, etc. -11- The temperature transition between two air masses is not actual1y concentrated at a surface, but rather over a band of perhaps 50 or 100 miles width. This region of large temperature gradient is referred to as the frontal zone. For practical purposes, the frontal zone is regarded a.s part of the cold air. The frontal surface is then defined as the surface separating the frontal zone and the warm air. In any frontal situation, convergence, if present, results in lifting of the warm air mass involved. (Ref. above paragraphs: Byers, 1944; Hewson and Long1ey, 1944). -IOC - - - - z oc ~ WARM AIR '--'1 ...,: ::r. Zoo 100 M/Lf;S FIG. 3.1 CROSS-SECTION THROUGH A FROlIT AL SYSTEH The weather conditions associated \dth any of the lifting processes described depend mainly upon the moisture content and degree of stability of the 1ifted air. If it is stable (and sufficiently mOist), precipitation occurs as light rain or snow. Recent radar studies indicate that in such a case the precipitation originates as snow in compact generating ce11s at altitudes usually between 12,000 and 30,000 ft. (Marshall et al., 1952). these cel1s move \.JÏ th In some cases at least, the wind at their own level. A falling snowflake [.ssumes, at any time, a horizontal ve10city equa1 to the wind ve10city of the air around i t. It fo11ows that, if the wind varies wi th height, snow- flakes are disp1aced horizontal1y with respect to their generating ce11s. -12- Theoretical studies have shown that a continuously generating element produces a pattern, or trail, which maintains its shape and moves with the velocity of the generating element. This holds whether or not the cell velocity is equal to the wind at the cell height. If the cell does move with the wind, the trail slope at any level is inversely proportional to the difference in wind between that level and the generating level. Further- more, if the reference axes are considered as moving with the generating cell, the trajectory of an indi vi dual snowflake becomes identical wi th this trail. These patterns have been observed by means of radar. The fact that sorne trails extend down tbrough as much as 20,000 ft. shows that an individual cell can exist for over an hour. .After a fall of 2 or 3 miles, the trails usually become nearly horizontal (typical slope, 0.05). The trails have a vertical extent of the order of 3,000 ft. due to variations in fall velocity for snowflakes of different sizes. The figures quoted give Il miles as the length of the surface precipitation band due to one generating element. Plots made during this project show that snow trails commonly have widths of the order of 10 miles. Thus a single cell can produce precipitation over an area of more than 100 sq. miles at one time. Precipitation from neighbouring cells frequently merges to cause the large areas of continuous rain or snow often found on weather maps. We shall use the word "continuous" to describe precipitation originating in such generating cells, even though it is sometimes discontinuous in space at the surface and always is so aloft. vIhen low-level temperatures are above freezing, the snow mel ts just below the freezing level. This causes an intensification of the radar echo known as the bright band. 1952). (Austin and Bemis, 1950; Gunn and East, The bright band is useful in determining the origin of precipitation, -12a- 20, 000 1/ 10,000 1. . ' : : ' ; i ! i i I U ! ! ! ! ! ! J RANGE (~lILES) FIG. J.2 SNO 1 TRAILS IN VERTICAL SECTION Bearing 2600 from I-bntreal Airport, 2052GCT, 2 November, 1951 as shower echoes do not show it, except for a weak effect in their later stages (Harshall, 1952). This residual effect may be due to snow falling from the upper part of the cloud after the updrafts die out. ~Ti th the exception of this situation, the bright band is a definite indication of snow above the freezing level. m.;: 20,0001 ~__~~=- 10,000 1 ______~~~__~~~~~!!~ 40 20 RANGE (MILES ) FIG. J.J BRIGHT BAND AND cmrrINUOUS RAIll Bearing 1800 from Montreal Airport, 22J8GCT, 8 June 1952 -1)- Chapter 4 POSSIBLE HODES OF INTERACTION \-Ihen an air mass being lifted by any means 1s unstable as 'WeIl as moi st, the pattern of gradual ascent is complicated by the presence of convective currents. Such developments occur quite frequently, especially as sorne air masses are rendered more unstable by lifting. A common result of such instability is the presence of cumulonimbus clouds embedded in the cloud deck above a 'Warm frontal surface. The cumulonimbus clouds, moving with a velocity roughly equal to that of the 'WarID air wind, cause local intensifications to move across an otherwise rather uniform precipitation area. 10,000' l' , '.,1 Il 1. • l ' Il l , ,1 .' . , ",1' • . 'l'· 1 ,', "," ' 1 FIG. 4.1 CUMULONIMBUS EMB:IDDED IN LAYER CLOUD DECK It is also possible to have a cloud system giving continuous precipitation with broken cloud belo'W causing local intensifications. The inten- sification here could be due to further growth of precipitation particles in the 10'Wer cloud, or to independent sho'Wer development in the 10'Wer levels. These patterns move with the wind at the level of the 10'W clouds. If the 10'W clouds have much vertical development their velocity is given by the wind roughly mid'Way bet'Ween the bases and tops. Various patterns due to combinations of continuous precipitation and sho'Wers have been discussed by previous writers. (Ligda, 1952). -14- 10 , 000'- , ' :~:~ 1 ~ 1 t_ ( • Il. , " \ '. lf ( l' 1 ! .: , : FIG. 4.2 STRATOCUMULUS BELOW LAYER CLOUD DECK Although convection can occur in either the cold or warm air in a frontal situation, it should be noted that convective currents cannot penetrate a well-defined frontal zone. In the frontal zone the lapse rate is smaller than in either air mass, and can even be negative through a layer one thousand feet or more thick. Therefore the frontal zone is a region of marked stability. We have already noted that the entrainment of dry air reduces the development of cumulus clouds. In cases where isolated snow generating cells at high levels pass over a relatively dry air mass, localized bands of increased humidity will result. Cumulus clouds forming in these areas will tend to reach a larger size than those surrounded by drier environmèntal air. The probability of showers should increase accordingly in these areas. Above the freezing level evaporation from snow can only bring the relative humidity (with respect to water saturation) up to that required for ice saturation. The relative humidity required for ice saturation is a function of temperature, reaching a minimum of 85% at -12 C for spherical ice crystals. For the common types of snow crystals, the saturation point is presumably higher than for ice spheres. If air initially has a relative hummdi ty near 100%, snow can dry i tout slightly through sublimation on the flakes. This drying affect, however, is limited to air with a relative -15- humidity between 85 and 100%. Since cumuli often push up through 1ayers with relative humidities of 40 or 50%, the moistening effect can be much more pronounced. With snow fal1ing into 1ayers containing cumulus c1ouds, variations in the normal atmospheric e1ectric field are possible. Researches in atmospheric e1ectricity have shown that a great variety of situations are found in the atmosphere at different times. (Gunn, 1951). Fal1ing snow might be expected to possess a positive potential with respect to its environment, as the upper atmosphere is positive with respect to the earth. (Gish, 1951). Sorne investigators have measured positive charge on snow; but others have found snow that possessed free negative charge. (Gunn, 1951). In showers and thunderstorms the potentials vary with time and position, particular1y in the lower parts. However, a general tendency towards concentration of positive charge on the tops of thunderstorms has been noted. (Gish, 1951). In a recent paper Marshall has cal1ed attention to the possibility of lightning discbarges between snow trai1s and the tops of showers. Lightning echoes observed on a 10 cm. radar set at Ottawa on 5 July 1948 were attributed to this process. Unfortunate1y, the low sensitivity of the 10 cm. set did not al10w the snow trai1s to be recorded. The shape of the trai1s was determined approximate1y, using the position of the associated bright band and the upper winds. (}furshal1, 1953). Ligda (1950) has also reported lightning echoes on 10 cm. sets, but only rare1y on 3 cm. sets. No 1ightning echoes have been observed on the 3 cm. set operated by the McGi11 Radar Weather Observatory since 1949. However, the 10 cm. sets general1y do not detect the snow trai1s in these cases. The possibi1ity of obtaining echoes from showers, snow -16- FIG. 4.3 A plan view of precipitation at Ottawa 5 July 1948. North is at top; range markers at 20 and 40 miles. Frontal thunderstorms and continuous rain extend from 2200 clockwise to 020 0 • Air-mass thunderstorms show from 0800 to 1200 • The snow melting to give bright band NW originated E, the trails extending past the airmass and frontal thunderstorms. Range-height indicator showed lightning echoes in sno\.f-filled regions around the thunderstorms. and lightning on one picture therefore appears small. In spite of the fact that rain sometimes falls from clouds with above-freezing temperatures throughout, a more important consideration in temperate zones is the large number of cumuli with tops above the freezing 1eve1 wInch never produce precipitation. Observations on 399 c10uds in New Mexico during 1950 revealed no precipitation for c10uds whose tops had temperatures between 0 and -12 C. Even with cloud-top temperatures as low as -25 C, a significant proportion of the observed . clouds failed to return a radar echo. 1951). (Braham, Reynolds and Harrell, In such cases the cloud tops consist of super-cooled water droplets. The actual percentage of such cases appears to be a function of the dropsize distribution, types of freezing nuclei available, and the degree of turbulence present. -17- A noteworthy result of the abov.~ investigation was the fact that, for various temperature ranges below -12 C, the percentage of clouds showing radar echoes was greater on generally eloudy days. The authors have suggested that cirrus produced by one storm might seed neighbouring clouds, which had not reached the height at which ordinary glaciation would oeeur. Similar effects could result from cirrus left over from storms on the previous day. (Braham, et al., 1951). The suggestion that seeding by continuous snow can initiate showers in cumulus clouds has been put fo~ward by Marshall (1953). It could only be effective where a cloud top had pushed at least a short distance above the freezing level. Since many cumuli undergo nucleation in any event when the temperature at their tops falls to -12 or -15 C, the seeding process could be important over a narrow range only. The possibility of such a process and the patterns which would result from it will now be considered in sorne detail. -18- Chapter 5 VERTICAL SECTION PATTERNS DUE TO SEEDING The patterns resulting from the seeding of cumuli by snow trails could be very complexe However, consideration of a few hypothetical cases shows the pattern type to be expected. Consider a case in which wind direction is invariant wi th height, but wind speed increases linearly with height. A radar set pointed in the direction of the wind "sees" a snow trail as a parabolic figure, such as curve a in Fig. 5.1. Assume the freezing level to be 10,000 ft., a non- precipitating cumulus cloud based at 5000 ft. and topped at 15,000 ft. and moving with the 10,000 ft. wind, a snow-generating cell at 24,000 ft. and a wind shear of 2.5 mi hr-l per 1000 ft. To allow simplification of the diagram (Fig. 5.1), the reference axes are considered as moving with the 10,000 ft. wind. The cumulus thus remains fixed on the diagram. Snow- flake trajectories calculated are the actual trajectories relative to the cloud. The cumulus cloud is subject to shearing effects and currents inside it, but we regard it as a fixed objecte The shape of the snow trail is a function of rate of fall for the flakes and the wind shear only, and so is independent of the choice of reference axes. A calculation of trajectories using a fall velocity of 4 ft sec- l reveals the pattern at successive times. As the cumulus cloud does not return an echo until it precipitates, the first observed effect will be its shadow appearing as a gap in the snow trail. In cases where the radar set is not pointed parallel to the wind shear (which is in the same direction as the wind for this example), the gap will not appear. Echo will be received from snow on either side of the cumulus being investigated, the "shadow" of the cumulus extending from i t at an angle to the radar beam. -19- o(V'\ ~ //---/' //71~ Il ~ ~ /~ 11 / ~ ~ 1 / 1 / 1 1 1 · 0 (\/ _J - -20- The region around the cloud top is one of divergence with rising currents inside the cloud. It is therefore unlikely that any snow could enter the cloud froID above. Fig. 5.1 (curve b) shows that snow comes in contact with the upwind side of the cloud, the point of contact descending as time passes. Since this brings snow into regions of maximum entrainment, snow is likely to be carried into the cloud. The snowflakes and the frag- ments broken off them by turbulence may grow by condensation, coalescence, or by some combination of the two processes. In any event, the development of a shower appears likely. Once a shower is in progress, attenuation by rain becomes important, if the wave-length used is as short as 3 cm. The part of the trail beyond the shower, as seen froID the radar set, could easily be lost from view. Film records of observations made at the McGill RadarWeather Observatory, Montreal Airport, from 1949-1952 have been examined for evidence of interaction between continuous and showery precipitation. R.H.I. pictures (radar pictures in vertical section) resembling stage b or stage c of Fig. 5.1 have been found for l day in 1951 and Il days in 1952. The me te oro- logical data for each of these cases have been collected and used to check movements of precipitation areas, slopes of snow trails, etc. Estimates of the temperatures at the tops of the cumulus clouds involved have been made by two methods. In the first, the degree of instability present was estimated with the aid of available tephigrams. Cloud top temperatures were then taken directly from the tephigrams. In sorne cases, an unstable layer near the surface was capped by a weak or shallow stable layer just above the freezing level, with another unstable layer aloft. In such a situation, sorne cumulus will stop at the first stable layer, but others may rise through it and the second unstable layer. -21- Seeding would be of more importance for the first class of clouds, and the temperatures given are for such clouds. The second method consisted of determining from the radar records the heights of young showers apparently caused by seeding. It was realized that this falls a little short of the cloud tops, but as the methods contain considerable error no correction was made for this particular factor. The temperatures at the measured heights were then taken from the upper-air data. The values obtained by the two methods agree reasonably well in each case. Of greater significance is the fact that all the values determined fall in the range -3 C to -13 C. These are reasonable limits for the range over which seeding could assume importance. TABLE 5.1 Date Temp. First 11ethod 1951 Aug. 3 1952 May 29 June 6 June 10 July 19 July 23 July 26 July 27 July" 28 Aug. 4 Aug. 21 Aug. 29 Cumulus Tops (C) Second Method -8 -5 -4 -13 -5 -Il -5 -8 -5 -5 -3 -6 :i* -6 -6 to -12 -5 -7 -10:t -3* :t -4 -5 -3 ü -8 -8 doubtful only pictures of later stages available. VERTICAL SECTION B~~ING 1700 , 1756 GCT 29 May 1952 -22- As an example, the situation of 29 May 1952 will now be considered. A vertical section on a bearing of 1700 at 1756 GCT shows a shower at ]0-34 miles and a snow trail out to 28 nilles. A plan view, obtained by combining observations on different bearings, and a summary of the weather data are given on page iii of the Appendix. The sno~ was being formed just north and northeast of the radar set at an altitude of about 22,000 ft. The trail shown, if projected, would cut the shower around 12,000 ft. The hourly reports at Montreal Airport showed the base of the low c10uds to be around 4000 ft. As the shower shown reached 18,000 ft., it is reasonable to assume it was moving with the 11,000 ft. wind. shear from Il,000 1 to 18,000' was from approximate1y 1700 • The wind Therefore the "shadow" of the shower extended from it towards the north, producing the gap in the snow trai1 from 28 to ]0.5 miles. The absence of echo beyond the shower is attributed to attenuation. The only sequence showing the deve10pment of a shower, from its ear1y stages to maturity, on a snow trail was obtained on 26 July 1952 (Fig. 5.3). A smal1 shower echo, embedded in a snow trai1, first appeared at 16-21,000 ft. The top showed only minor fluctuations, but the shower deve10ped rapidly dovmwards. Rain at the ground, as indicated by radar, began 8.5 minutes after the first echo was detected. Sorne pictures were taken on reduced gain but no bright band was detected at any stage. Successive positions of the center of the shower were plotted on a polar diagram. Its ve10city was found to be 54 mi. hr.-1 from 2500 • the change in wind "Ji th height was smal1, no steering 1eve1 can be assigned. (See page viii of Appendix). The component of the thermal wind (change in wind with height) perpendicular to the radar bearing of 2400 was very sma~. This means that the sides of the shower were near1y vertical, as shearing effects As -_...-_------. -.-_ - .......... ....... - 23- 5.3 FIG. VERTICAL SECTION THROUGH DEVELOPING SHOWER 26 July 1952 BEARING 2400 1911 GCT snow 21,000' .(--- 16,000' ( 10 20 30 BEARING 2380 1915 GCT 21,000' 10,000' 10 20 30 BEARING 2310 .1919 GCT ~ 10 l, 20 RANGE (MILES) 30 -24- were smal1. The radar was pointed very near1y into the wind, and the bearing changed slight1y to fo11ow the shower as it progressed. It is therefore conc1uded that changes in the echo represent changes in the shower and not a movement of different parts of the shower across the radar beam. A sample R.H.I. picture for each of the 12 days listed is given in the Appendix. For days such as 27 July 1952, where only pictures of later stages were available, care was taken ta avoid mistaking a cumulonimbus anvil for a snow trail. Byers (1951) states that anvils and other lateral extensions of cumulonimbi usually do not return radar echoes. However, he does not rule out the possibility. In the usua1 case of wind increasing with height, the only direction in which anvils extend an appreciable distance from cumulonimbus clouds is downwind. In most cases it was possible ta find pictures showing an extensive trail on bath sides of the shower. In other examples, plots on polar diagrams were used ta confirm the existence of snow trails from generating elements at higher levels. -25Chapter (l PL./IN PATTERNS If a seeded cloud develops into a shower which passes through a normal cycle and dissipates, a plan view of the patterns produced by snow seeding can be calculated. Various conceivable complications, such as the seeding of a second cloud by the mature shower, will not be discussed here. B D A FIG. 6.1 ; MOVEl.fIDlt OF SHOWER. LlNE DUE TO SEWING 1 Consider an air Ii mass containing numerous cumulus clouds wi th tops 1 1 above the freezing level, the clouds moving wi th the wind veloci ty CV) at a height roughly ~dway between their bases and tops. 1 If a snow trail 1 moves across the vdll move with j re~on , ; and seeds a particular cloud, the shower produced velo~ityv. If the seeding occurs at point A (Fig. 6.1) ! and the shower lasts for a time t, it will be dissipating as it passes B. \ In a usual situation t would be of the order of 1 hour. By time t, the point of contact between the trail and cumulus clouds will have moved vn. th the veloci ty of the snovl-generating element to C. We shall consider the case where this veloci ty is equal to W, the wind at the height of the snow generating element. New showers will be forming -26- at C and the line BC will be marked by a line of showers in different stages. At 2t, the shower line will extend from D to E. although indi vi dual showers move wi th veloei ty has a veloei ty equal to v, It is seen that, the system as a whole w. This mechanism may be responsible for sorne observed cases in whieh air-mass thunderstorms oceur in linesrather than as seattered storms, and for whieh no explanation has been offered. Out of 31 days studied in Ohio during the Thunderstorm Projeet, with no fronts or squall lines present, the thunderstorms lined up on 7 days. (Byers , 1951). The length (t) of the shower line is a function of t, v and w. g Let be the angle between w and v, and w and v be the magnitudes of w and v respectively. Then g will usually be an acute angle, and v be less than w. t :: t [w2 + v2 - 2vw cos Q1 1/2 For the order of magnitudes involved, consider v 2300 , w :: 60 mi hr- l from 270 0 , and t :: 50 minutes. t :: t [3600 + 625 - = 25 mi hr- l from Then 3000 x .77] 1/2 mi. :: 37 miles If vdnd direction is invariant with height, cos g :: l and the equation simplifies to t :: t (w - v) The angle cr as shovm in Fig. 6.1 1s given by cr :: cos-1 [ 2 2 - v cos g (w + v - 2vw cos g) 1/2] As t is not known exaetly for a partieular situation, the function cr would provide a bet ter check than t as to whether or not a shovler line was the result of snow seeding. observati ons. cr would also he easier to determine from -27- Since snow trails are of the order of 5 - 10 miles in width, a band of showers should be expected, rather than a sharp line. Variations in the heights of the cumulus clouds and different rates of development for the showers would make the boundaries of the showery region diffuse. The photographie records made by the McGill Radar Weather Observatory during 1951 and 1952 all show vertical sections. Even when a vertical section shows showers developing along a snow trail, the possibility exists that showers are occurring randornly, and that the density of showers is as great in other sectors not affected by snow. To check this, radar data, obtained on different bearings of the set, were plotted on polar diagrams. It was found that satisfactory plots could be made if successive observations differed in aximuth by less than 15 0 • The rotation of the beam renders uncertain the location of the boundaries of precipitation regions by an amount rœ[. Here r is the distance of the observed object from the radar, w is the angular velocity of the rotation of the beam, and T is the exposure time being used in photographing the scope. This error often completely outwèighs the error in position introduced by the beam width. However, only a certain amount of detail can be plotted, no matter how close together the successive bearings are. If an azimuthal sweep of 3600 takes more than 3 to 4 minutes, an accurate picture of the situation is hard to obtain. Changes in the situation introduce a discontinuity in the diagram at the bearing on which the sweep begins and ends. The construction of such a diagram requires 30 minutes to l hour, depending upon the accuracy and amount of detail required. The result is more useful than an ordinary photograph of a plan-position indicator radar scope. Echoes are obtained on the sample bearings from all elevations up to 25 0 • A blind spot extends from the origin to about 10 miles, its area being 1/25 of the region within range of the radar. - 28FIG. 6. 2 ,s 1 T / 1 1 1 1 1 1 / 1 1 /7 T 1 .~'-'If.. 1 T JO " () B.B. \ \ i 20 mi. 2700 r---~~~~~~r--H~~+------r-------------~------------------ 90° 1 J IS T /3 \ \ ---, \ "- '\ '\ 13 T \ , \ 1000 2125-2130 GCT, 3 AUGUST 1951 ~ 10,000 FT. CONTOURS OF SHOWERS ./8.8.') OUTLINE OF AREAS OF CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION ~ ~ - - OUTLINE OF SNOW TRAILS - HT. TOP ABOVE "T" AND HT. BASE BELOW -' (r. " CONVECTIVE CELL IN EARLY STAGE -29- Such diagrams have been prepared from 811 suitable sequences recorded on the 12 days listed in Table 5.1. (See Fig. 6.2). completed for each day except 19 July 1952. included in the Appendix. At least l has been Each of the other 11 days is It should be noted that no attempt to correct for attenuation has been made in plotting the observations. In most of the cases studied, shower activity is definitely eoneentrated in the regions affeeted by snow trails. This could be due either ' to seeding by snow or to moistening of the air around the cumuliform clouds. On the other hand, such juxtaposition of showers and eontinuous precipitation, in a partieular case, might be due to orographie factors, or to the synoptic situation. -)0- Chapter 7 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS Snow trails occur frequently above the freezing level and MOye with velocities generally different from those of cumulus clouds. Examination of radar records shows that snow trails and showers occur together quite frequently. Now, cumulus clouds with tops weIl above the freezing level often fail to undergo glaciation. Evidence has been sought that entrain- ment of snow from the trails into cumulus clouds induced shower formation. Certain sequences, such as 26 July 1952, do suggest strongly that showers were caused in thi s way. Plan diagrams can be used to organize observations in vertical section, giving a general view of a situation. Those constructed show concentrations of showers in regions affected b,y snow trails. This provides further evidence that showers can be initiated by snow entrained into cumulus clouds. An empirical rule, commonly used by meteorologists in the temperate zones, states that shower activity commences when cumulus tops extend 4,000 ft. above the freezing level. -10 C. This corresponds to a temperature of about Tabulation of temperatures at the tops of showers associated with snow trails shows sorne as warm as -) C. It appears that, with snow present, showers become possible more quickly than when cumulus clouds develop in an otherwise clear atmosphere. This suggests that some consideration of high clouds anticipated should be made in deciding whether or not cumulus clouds, expected to extend just above the freezing level will produce showers. -31REFERENCES 1. AUSTIN, J.M. (1951): "Cumulus Convection and Entrainment", p. 694, Compendium of Meteoro1ogy, American Meteoro1ogical Society. 2. AUSTIN, P.M. and BEMIS, A.C. (1950): "A Quantitative Study of the Bright Band in Precipitation Echoes", Journal of Meteoro1ogy, 1: 135. 3. BRAHAM, R.R., REYNOLDS, S.E. and HARRELL, J.H. (1951): "Possibilities for Cloud Seeding as Determined by a Study of Cloud Height versus Precipitation", Journal of Meteoro1ogy, ~ : 416. 4. BYERS, H.R. (1944): "General Meteoro1ogy", McGraw-Hi11 Book Company, Inc. 5. BYERS, H.R. (1951): "Thunderstorms", Compendium of Meteoro1ogy, p. 681. 6. GISH, O.H. (1951): "Uni versal Aspects of Atmospheric Electrici ty", Compendium of V~teorology, p. 101. 7. GUNN, K.L.S. (1947): "Radar Echoes from Rain Showers", M.Sc. thesis, MbGi11 University. 8. GUNN, K.L.S. and EAST, T.W.R. (1952): "Microwave Properties of Precip- i tation Particles", p. F-1, Proceedings of the Third Radar Weather Conference, McGi11 University. 9. GUNN, R. (1951): "Precipitation Electricity", Compendium of Meteorology, p. 128. 10. HEL-lSON, E.W. ,and LûNGLEY, R.W. (1944): "Meteorology Theoretical and Applied", John Wi1ey and Sons, Inc. Il. HOUGHTON, H.G. (1951): "On the Physics of C10uds and Precipitation", Compendium of Meteoro1ogy, p. 165. 12. LIGDA, MeG.H. (1950): "Lightning Detection by Radar", Bulletin American Meteoro1ogical Society, 11 : ,279. 13. LIGDA, M.G.H. (1951): "Radar Storm Observation", Compendium of Meteorology, p. 1265. 14. LIGDA, M.G.H. (1952): "The Horizontal Hotion of Small Precipitation Areas as Observed by Radar", p. D-41, Proceedings of the Third Radar Weather Conference, }~Gi11 University. 15. MALIruS, J .S. (1949): "Effects of Wind Shear on Some Aspects of Convection", Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, .JQ : 19. 16. MARSHALL, J.S. (1952): "Brussels Meeting of the Joint Commission on Radar Meteorology", p. 205, Proceedings of Conference (1951) on Water Resources, Illinois State Water Survey. 17. MARSHALL, J.S. (1953): "Frontal Precipitation and Lightning Observed by Radar", Canadian Journal of Physics, 1l : 194. -32- 18. MARSHALL, J.S., LANGLEBEN, M.P., and RIGBY (SMITH), E.C. (1952): "Precipitation Trajectories and Patterns", Stormy Weather Research Group, McGil1 University, Scientific Report MW-8 under U.S.A.F. Contract No. AF-19(122)-217. 19. PEl'Tms8 EN , S. (1940): "Weather Analysis and Forecasting", McGrawHill Book Company, Inc. 20. RIGBY (SMITH), E.C. (1948): liA Study of Vertical Motions in Radar Patterns of Rain", M.Sc. thesis, McGill University. 21. RYDE, J .W. (1941): IIEcho Intensi ties and Attenuation Due to Clouds, Rain, Hail, Sand and Dust Storms ll , General Electric Company (British), Report No. 7831, 1941. APPENDIX In this appendix, a sample vertical section and plan diagram, and a summary of the meteorological data are given for each of the days studied, which showed evidence of interaction. On the plan patterns the fo1lowing conventions were used: 10,000 1 ft. contours of showers areas of continuous precipitation 1.<. outline of trails aloft, height T JO of top above liT" and ht. base below echo of shower which has not yet reached the ground, ht. top above dash and ht. base below. The code used for recording wind and temperature data can best be exp1aiped by an examp1e. 10/250/20/3 is read as fo11ows: The wind at 10,000 1 above sea-1eve1 was from 2500 true at 20 knots, and the temperature was +.3 c. ( i i) 3 August 19 31 2134 GCT Rt. in thsds. ft 30 20 10 ~ 20 Ra nge (mile s) 2 1)+1 ~- 215 1 GGT 270 \ , 180 WINDS J..ND TEMPERATURES : SFC /180/10 / 19 20/240 /60/-1 5 10/ 2 50 /42/0 301245/90/- 37 SYNOPSIS: A col d front preceded by moist Ma ritime Polar air and followed by a strong outbreak of Continental.Pola r air passed Mont rea l about 2200 GGT. Tr opical air ass ociated with a frontal system along the Atlantic coast wa s present at hif,h levels. tiii) 29 May 1952 1756 GCT Rt. 10,000- 20 Range (miles) 1753-1755 GCT 12 T 17 1 1 WINDS AND " TEr,PERA TURES : SFC/180/3!19 20/210/50/-18 SYNOPSIS: 2.1 T 10/230/36/- 3 30/220/100/-40 (app.) A weak occlusion east of Montreal \'las moving east'ward. Montreal "'Tas in a Vleak circula tion of moist Polar air, wi th a strong southwesterly flow of Tropioal air aloft. (i v) 6 June 1952 BEA RING 315 0 2146 GOT Ht. 40,000, 20,000' 20 Range (miles) 2141-2143 GOT 40 o t, T ... 'NINDS AND -- '5 ,. , f TE~lPERATURES: SFO /2 30}10 /20 20/300/40 /-16 10/290/28/0 30/300/73/-:-40 SYNOPSIS: A deve10ping loV! pressure area moved eastward acrOdS southern ~uebec during the day. The associated frontal system was qui te comp1ex. rrhe thunderstorms in the Montreal area were apparent1y caused by the passage of a trough of uns table tropical air aloft. ( v) 10 June 1952 1959 GCT BEARmG 355 0 Ut. 1~0 ,000 ,.- 20,000' - 20 Range (miles) 40 2239-2244 GCT ~'INDS AND TEMPERATURES: SFC /250 /B /19 20/240 /3B /-23 10/255/28/-2 30/250/55/-44 SYNOPSIS: A deep low pressure area was centreè east of James Bay. Montreal was covered by a westsouthwesterly flow of unstable Continental Polar air with Maritime Polar air aloft. (vi) 19 July 1952 0330 GCT 20 July Rt. 40 ,000' 20,000' - (miles) No sequence of pictures suitable for the construction ot a plan diagram was taken. VITNDS AND TEr.~ERA.TURES: SFC /310/8/23 20/290/601-11 10/)10/.30/5 30/290/70/- 36 SYNOPSIS: A cold front extending in an east-west line across northern New England was causing a few showers in southern Quebec. Continental Polar air was present north ot the front with Tropical air above the frontal surface. ( vii) 23 July 1952 2316 GOT Ht. 20,000' _ 10,000 ' Range (miles) 2251-2255 GOT ,7 T '7 1 .-T"1-'--_ , \1 8. B. / . WINDS AND TBMPERATURES: SFO/200/2/28 20/245/55/-10 SYNOPSIS: 10/250/38/7 30/245/65/- 32 The precipitation in the Montreal area occurred in a stream of Tropical air just ahead of a cold front moving eastward from Ontario. The front was followed by a moderately strong flow of Continental Polar air. (viii) 26 July 1952 BEARING 235 0 1915 GCT Ht. 20,000'10 ,000'- (miles) 1944-1946 GCT WlliDS AND TEMPERATURES: SFC /220/7/27 20/260/40/-8 10/250/35/10 30/240/751- 33 SYNOPSIS: A high pressure area centred south of Nantucket vms causing a southwesterly circulation over the region. A shallow layer of warm modified Polar air was present from the surface to approximately 5,000', with very warm Tropical air aloft. A slow1y moving cold front extended in a northeast-southwest line near Ottawa. llX' 27 Ju1y 1952 BEARING 040 0 1952 GOT Ht. 20,000' _ 10,000' 20 Range (miles) 40 1916-1924 GOT 360° \ \ , ,. 1 t 1 270t----eaI-mt..----+----+-------I09Q0 WINDS AND TEMPERATURES: SFO /200/6/26 20/270/25/-12 10/280/20 I!+ 30/270/45/- 37 SYNOPSIS: A cold front, which was near Ottawa on July 26, lay Just south of Montreal by 1500 GOT on the 27. It continued to move very slowly southeastward. There VIas a shallow layer of modified Polar a ir over Montreal with Tropical air above the frontal surface. ( x) 28 July 1952 BEARING 340 0 0015 GCT 29 July lIt. 20,000' 10.000' 10 Range (miles) 0040-0046 GCT, 29 July ..... ...-., "- 8. 8. \. VoTINDS AND TEMPERATURES: SFC/220/6/22 20/260/55/-13 10/260/37/!+ 30/260/90/- 35 SYNOPSIS: A quasistationary front lay along the New England coast with Maritime Tropical air to the south and greatly modified Polar air to the north. A deep low pressure area moving eastward aeross northern Quebee ~~s followed by a strong outbreak of fresh Continental Polar air. The passagb of the cold front was aceompanied by rain and thunderstorms in the Montreal area. ( ~i) 4 August 1952 BEARING 300 0 1841 GCT Rt. 20,000 t - 10,000 t - 20 Range (miles) 40 1623-1629 GCT 360° WINDS AND Tll1.1PERATURES: SFC /060/10/19 20/235/40 /-11 SYNOPSIS: 10/210/25/5 30/260/40 /- 35 A low pressure area was centred over Lake Huron w1th a warm front running eastward from the centre to Portland, Maine. Southern Q,uebec was in an easterly flow of Continental Polar air with a southwesterly flow of Maritime Polar and Tropical air above the frontal surface. (xii) 21 August 1952 1756 GCT 3&:..RING 280 0 Ht. 20,000'''' 10,000'20 Hange (miles) 40 1312-1324 GCT o /,- --' /-.-") /' ~-r--","- ( /' 270 0 ," ) ,1.... b,...../~.)=---"!,.,-f;;;,r'--.nr--+----->,c--r=-:-+-----t 0900 / WINDS AND TEMPERATURES: SFC/120/5/18 20/230 /32/-16 10/220/25/2 30/210/501- 38 SYNOPSIS: A deep low pressure are a was moving across northern Quebec towards Labrador. An occlusion extended southward trom the low to a point about 350 miles north of Montreal;from there a co~d front ran southwestward to near Toronto. A trough of warm air aloft preceded the cold front by about 100 miles. Unstable 'l'ropical air in this trough gave rise to extensive shower and thunderstorm development in southern Quebec. \x~li) 29 August 1952 JjEARING 110 0 2306 GCT Ht. 20,000' 10,000' .Range (miles) 2022-2029 (JCT o 1'lINDS AND TEMPERf-\.TURES: SFC /300/8/25 20/260/301-13 10/280/25/5 30/260/45/- 33 S".{NOPSIS: A cold front on a line through Anticosti, Ottawa and Chicago a t 1530 CrCT passed Montreal about 2200 UCT. r:t.the air to the south was warm modified Polar air, while the air behind the front was fresh Continental Polar air. 'l'ropical air was present above 12,000'.