Download CHINA and the MIDDLE EAST

Belts, Roads, and
Lines: a Look at
China’s Geopolitical
Position
Jeffrey Payne
NESA Center for Strategic Studies
September 2016
At a Glance: China’s Political
Economy
• CCP relies on co-opting potential adversaries; represses when
necessary
• PRC embraces economic inefficiency (SOEs) in favor of political
monopoly
• China’s neighbors, by and large, are souring quickly on Beijing
• Beijing is a free rider, but is slowly taking on more
responsibility beyond its borders
• China’s economy is resource poor – impacts strategic culture
• Regions differ economically and thus, differ politically
• Political will often translates into economic advantage; rule of
law immature at best.
PRC
Energy Security and Factory China
• China’s economy relies on imported energy…that
can be interrupted.
• China relies on construction and manufacturing
sectors – and construction is likely to slow.
• The Belt and Road – it matters and you should
understand it.
• New market development and market saturation
are a political objective.
• Joint Ventures – the complication of government
stakeholders
• Guanxi, Guanxi, Guanxi…
The Belt and Road
Political Risk
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Corruption/Transparency
Protest – particularly NIMBY Protests
Intellectual Property/Industrial Espionage
Quality Controls/Regulation/Environmental Issues
Cyber Security/Information Technology
Rule of Law Development/Alterations
• Overall – China has a stable political and economic
baseline with substantial structural problems resting
below the surface