Download NOAA`s Needs and Support for Integrating Meteorology and Social

NOAA’s Needs and Support for
Integrating Meteorology and
Social Science
John Gaynor
Director
Office of Weather and Air Quality
Outline
• History of support for social science in weather
in NOAA
• How the Societal Impacts Program was formed
• How WAS*IS gathered initial support
• The continuing struggle in NOAA for support for
social science in weather (but things are looking
up)
• The importance of communicating uncertainty to
NOAA (weather and health connection example)
• How can WAS*IS help?
History of Social Science in
Weather in NOAA
• Spotty – some small surveys and
economic impact studies done by the
NWS over the years.
• Competition with operations and R&D of
observing systems and forecast
capabilities
How the Societal Impacts Program
Was Formed
• USWRP had societal impacts as one of its four top
priorities.
• Leadership of Tim Killeen (NCAR Director) in moving
social science forward in USWRP.
• Plans developed at NCAR’s Research and Applications
Laboratory and peer reviewed.
• SIP placed in RAL and Institute for the Study of Society
and Environment
• Funding by NOAA began in 2003 and director (Jeff Lazo)
appointed in 2004.
• Funding competes each year with physical science
projects in NOAA USWRP.
The Continuing Struggle for NOAA
Support of Social Science in Weather
• Weather research funding is decreasing in NOAA and
social science must compete in this environment.
• Lack of recognition that investment in social science
should be a high priority when funding is dwindling
• No new funding, yet
• Hopeful signs:
– NWS support of connecting weather and health issues
– NOAA Science Advisory Board guidance document on strengthening
social science in NOAA
– NOAA Research Council support of this guidance
– Formation of a NOAA Social Science Working Group under the Council
– Developing a social science research plan for the NOAA Weather and
Water Strategic Goal
– NOAA OAR Roundtable on Social Science in Weather (April)
– NOAA initiatives on communicating uncertainty in response to NAS
report on “Completing the Forecast”
– NOAA funding of a joint NSF-NOAA AO on social science research for
hurricane forecasts and warnings
NHC Graphic Products
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
50 Knot Wind Prob.
Hurricane Wind Prob.
34 Knot Wind Prob.
Note: SMALL Probabilities
can be SIGNIFICANT!!!
How Can WAS*IS Help?
• Weather and health
– Integrating severe weather forecasts into
medical facility decisions
• Communicating uncertainty
– Ensuring that the public and weather sensitive
sectors receive probabilistic weather
information they can understand and use