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Ireland
Six Years After Crisis,
Emerald Isle Is Wearing the
Green – But Not Rolling In It
Ireland’s Better – Not Great
 Growing
Faster than U.S. – GDP Rose 4.8%
in 2014 v. 2.4% in U.S.
 Unemployment is Still 10.1% -- U.S. is 5.5%
 Both Economies Hiccupped in 4th Quarter
Sources: CIA Factbook, Eurostat, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Irish Central Statistics
Office.
Ireland’s Recovery Is Different
than in the U.S.

Investment is Growing Faster There

+11.3% in 2014 – Ireland
+5.9% in the U.S.

But Irish Consumers Aren’t Spending Much

In late 2014, U.S. consumption rose 4%/year
 In Ireland, consumption grew just 1.3%

Data: Irish Central Statistics Office, U.S. Bureau of
Economic Analysis
Beer, Housing, Wages – All
Depressed

As in U.S., Wage Growth is Slow but Low Inflation Helps



Inflation. -0.1% in U.S., -0.6% Ireland (Year Ending Jan. 2015)
Wages: 1.7% U.S., 1.7% Ireland (Year Ending December)
Home Prices Fell By Half, Versus About One-Third in
the U.S.


And rose 8% last year
What is there to life?


Irish Beer prices still down 10% from 2009
But Beer’s Up 9.6% Since 2012
Sources: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CSO
Ireland’s Biggest Exports – Not
What You think
 Exports,
Like Investment, Lead Ireland’s
Recovery
 It’s Not Guinness – Which is Made All Over
the World
 About a third of exports are
pharmaceuticals or other medical goods.
About 14% is food and drink
 Google, Microsoft and Johnson &
Johnson are top exporters from Ireland

Sources: Irish Exporters Assoc., MIT, Eurostat, CSO, WSJ
Easing Off Austerity

Ireland is Big Gainer from European Central Bank easing, which
helps exports
 Irish 10-year bond yield 0.82%

No new spending cuts needed to meet deficit targets, local
experts say

Irish Budget Deficit is Smaller but National Debt is Much Larger
than in U.S
 U.S. Debt = 72.5% of GDP
 Ireland Debt= 118% of GDP

Ireland could be vulnerable if Greece falters and creditors get
wary
Sources: Economic and Social Research Institute (Dublin), Moody’s
Analytics, IHS Global Insight, Investing.com
Bottom Line: Better, but Could
Still Use a Drink

Unemployment Forecast to Stay Near 10% Through 2016.



10.5% 2015,
9.9% 2016
Growth expected to be faster than U.S. for next two years


2015: 3.3% Ireland, 3.1%US
2016: 3.2% Ireland, 3.0% US
Quote: “Things are looking up, but in the near
term the growth rate is misleading. …The
weakness of the euro should really help.” –
Diego Iscaro, IHS Global Insight
Data:, Origanisation for EConomic Cooperation and Development