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Advancing Leadership through Research:
Using Secondary Data for Understanding Avian Influenza (H5N1)
Attempting to Understand the Emergence of Avian Influenza in
Viet Nam: urbanization, agricultural intensification, habitat
alteration
EWC/EWCA 50th Anniversary International Conference
Hawaii Convention Center, Room 317B
Honolulu, Hawai’i
July 5, 2010
James H. Spencer
Urban and Regional Planning, Political Science
Globalization Research Center
University of Hawai’i at Manoa
(808) 956-8835
[email protected]
An Empirical Spatial Data Research Agenda
for Understanding Risk
• East West Center (Honolulu, HI)
• University of Hawai’i Department of Urban and
Regional Planning (DURP) and Globalization
Research Center (GRC)
• University of Hawai’i John A. Burns School of
Medicine (JABSOM)
SOURCE:
Kapan, Durrell D., Shannon N. Bennett, Brett Ellis, Jefferson Fox, Nancy D. Lewis, James H.
Spencer, Sumeet Saksena, and Bruce A. Wilcox. 2006. “Avian Influenza (H5N1) and the
Evolutionary and Social Ecology of Infectious Disease Emergence,” in EcoHealth 3( 3).
SOURCE:
Kapan, Durrell D., Shannon N. Bennett, Brett Ellis, Jefferson Fox, Nancy D. Lewis, James H. Spencer,
Sumeet Saksena, and Bruce A. Wilcox. 2006. “Avian Influenza (H5N1) and the Evolutionary and Social
Ecology of Infectious Disease Emergence,” in EcoHealth 3( 3).
H5N1 Risk as a Socio-Ecological
“mixing bowl”
• Scientific concerns about Avian Influenza
– Reassortment (ducks, chickens, pigs, humans)
– Contact between wild-birds, domesticated flocks, and
humans
• Spatial Analysis
– These “points of contact” occur in socio-ecologically
diverse localities
– This calls for improved understanding of those
localities and an integrated medical, social, and
ecological research capacity for studying them.
FAO Data: Provinces with HPAI in humans
Provinces reporting avian influenza outbreaks in humans 12/2004 - 1/2005
FAO Data: Provinces with HPAI in poultry
Provinces reporting avian influenza outbreaks in poultry 12/2004 - 1/2005
Spatial analyses of risk:
1)
Useful Efforts to Generalize about landscape-level risk
factors at the provincial level:
E.g. Dodson, David. 2007. White Paper: Forecasting Local
Outbreaks of Avian Flu in Humans. U.S. Department of
State Humanitarian Information Unit, June 28.
2)
Need for more refined spatial resolution such as those
done for predicting spread.
N
W
E
S
Empirical Evidence and the Ecosystem Approach to Research and Control
of EID:
Secondary Data Integration and Testing New Hypotheses on H5N1
• Landscape Level factors (our current focus):
– H1: Disease Emergence = f(urbanization, agricultural
intensification, habitat alteration)
• Natural Community Level factors:
– H2: Disease Emergence = f(opportunistic habitat expansion,
feral reservoir, vector reservoir, transport of species,
domestication of species)
• “Population” Level factors:
– H3: Disease Emergence = f(host-switching, breaching
pathogen persistence levels, transmission amplification,
genetic exchange)
Dependent Variables: Internet-accessible data for assessing risk
factors of H5N1 outbreaks
-- Declan Butler, Staff Writer, Nature
Independent Variables:
Landscape Estimates of Urbanization, Habitat
Alteration/Agricultural Intensification
• Viet Nam Census, 1999: Urbanization
– Population density: % households over national mean density; official urban
designation; town district or above.
– Infrastructure: % of water use types, sanitation types, house construction
material types; divergence indices.
– Socio-economic: Literacy, poverty, education
– Demographic: Age structure, ethnicity.
• Viet Nam Land Cover Fragmentation Statistics (FragStats), 2001: Habitat
Alteration/Agricultural Intensification
– Intensive agricultural uses: Cropland class percentage
– Conversion from natural vegetation to agricultural use: Mixed cropland and
natural vegetation class percentage
– Interface (exposure) of natural and intensive-human use land: patch,
connectedness, and edge estimates of cropland and mixed land classes.
Vietnam District GIS Layer Obtained
• based on 1999 Census
• 611 admin units delineated
• with unique district codes
• with district and province names
• used as master district ID list
• IDs link AI, Census, & LC datasets
Provincial Analysis of Kuznets Relationship between
Disease Outbreak and Urban Transition
ExploringLandscape Factors of H5N1 Outbreak
Occurrence and Outbreak Intensity, 2004, 2005
• n = 611 districts with complete data
• Of the 96 tests on Urbanization/socioeconomic/demographic factors and H5N1 outbreak
intensity, 17 significant correlations (expected 5 by
chance)
• Of the 30 tests on agricultural intensification/habitat
alteration and H5N1 outbreak intensity, 5 significant
correlations (expected 1.5 by chance)
HHBIG =proportion of households with 6 persons or more; HHDENSE1 = proportion of households with hh density of 8.39 sq meters (the overall mean density)
or greater; W3 = Proportion with an “other clean water source” [note: W1 is piped; w2 is rain; W4 is any other source]; B1 =% HH with permanent materials;
B2=% HH with semi-permanent materials; B4 =% HH with simple construction [note: B3 is wood frame or durable leaf roof construction]; TALT = Toilet
Disparity index (alternative); BALT = Building Disparity index.
LITERATE = % of district population which “can read and write”; EDLEVEL8 =Proportion of district population which has completed education level 8;
TV = % HH with TV; RADIO = % HH with Radio; MINORITY =% Total population non-Kinh; P04 = # of population between 0 and 4 years; P59 = # of
pop between 5 an 9 years; P1024 = # of pop between 10 and 24 years; P2544 = # of pop between 25 and 44 years
PLAND – PERCENT LANDSCAPE; NP – NUMBER OF PATCHES; ED – EDGE DENSITY;LSI – LANDSCAPE SHAPE INDEX;PARA_MN – PERIMETER-AREA
RATIO DISTRIBUTION;PARA_AM –area-weighted mean of PERIMETER-AREA RATIO DISTRIBUTION;SHAPE_MN – SHAPE INDEX;SHAPE_AM - areaweighted mean of SHAPE INDEX;FRAC_MN – FRACTAL INDEX DISTRIBUTION;FRAC_AM - area-weighted mean of FRACTAL INDEX
DISTRIBUTION;ENN_MN – EUCLIDEAN NEAREST NEIGBOR DISTANCE DISTRIBUTION;ENN_AM - area-weighted mean of EUCLIDEAN NEAREST NEIGBOR
DISTANCE DISTRIBUTION;IJI – INTERSPERSION AND JUXTOPASITION INDEX;MESH – EFFECTIVE MESH SIZE;COHESION – PATCH COHESION INDEX
PLAND – PERCENT LANDSCAPE; NP – NUMBER OF PATCHES; ED – EDGE DENSITY;LSI – LANDSCAPE SHAPE INDEX;PARA_MN – PERIMETER-AREA
RATIO DISTRIBUTION;PARA_AM –area-weighted mean of PERIMETER-AREA RATIO DISTRIBUTION;SHAPE_MN – SHAPE INDEX;SHAPE_AM - areaweighted mean of SHAPE INDEX;FRAC_MN – FRACTAL INDEX DISTRIBUTION;FRAC_AM - area-weighted mean of FRACTAL INDEX
DISTRIBUTION;ENN_MN – EUCLIDEAN NEAREST NEIGBOR DISTANCE DISTRIBUTION;ENN_AM - area-weighted mean of EUCLIDEAN NEAREST NEIGBOR
DISTANCE DISTRIBUTION;IJI – INTERSPERSION AND JUXTOPASITION INDEX;MESH – EFFECTIVE MESH SIZE;COHESION – PATCH COHESION INDEX
Next Steps: Existing data
• Reconcile updated geography for poultry data (2005)
– Preliminary analysis of 525 records suggests our
current controls are accurate
• Multivariate analyses: OLS, Logistic
– Preliminary analysis suggests some of the results are
likely to hold.
• Collect same variables at commune level and replicate
analysis
Alternative Secondary Data
• Many other secondary data sources exist at
the commune and district level
– Monthly human health statistics collected by
Community Health Workers.
– Livestock statistics
– Viet Nam Living Standards Survey
– Others