Download Address and Introduction to ACcESS

The 3-rd ACES Working Group Meeting
Opening Address
Peter Mora
Chair, Research Committee, ACcESS MNRF
Executive Director, ACES
Director, QUAKES
The scientific debate
“... small earthquake have some
probability of cascading into a large
event …” Geller et al
“Earthquake prediction is difficult but
not impossible, …” Knopoff
The problem
“No satisfactory theory of the
earthquake source process exists at
present”, Geller
The APEC Cooperation for
Earthquake Simulation (ACES)
1. To develop realistic numerical
simulation models
2. To foster collaboration
3. To foster development of
infrastructure & programs
Develop a unified simulation model for earthquake
generation and earthquake cycles
Multi-scale simulator
Time scale, sec.
Outcomes
• Simulation models
– 3 x 2 volume journal issues + 3 proceedings
• Collaboration
– Earthquake physics & catastrophic failure
– Simulation models and software
– Australia, China, Japan, USA visitors & collab programs
(30+ visits, joint publications)
• Infrastructure
–
–
–
–
GEM, ServoGrid, QuakeSim
Earth Simulator, GeoFEM
Key national program for catastroophic failure
ACcESS MNRF
Japan
Earth Simulator:
GeoFEM: Premier large-scale
The world’s fastest
supercomputer
finite-element software platform for
solid earth simulation
Solid Earth Simulator Project:
Forefront macro-scale research
• Subduction zone dynamics,
crustal activity and strong motion
• Mantle and core dynamics
Courtesy of Okuda, Matsu’ura and Matsui
China
Fracture physics, mesoscopic damage models, intraplate
observations
failure point
250
P
sensitivity
200
150
100
50
0
-50
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
time (s)
Courtesy of Yin, Xia and Bai
USA
Simulation of the CA interacting fault system
Courtesy of Rundle, Donnellan and Olsen
Australia
• Micro-models
• Earthquake physics
and dynamics
• Crustal & mantle models
The Australian Computational Earth Systems
Simulator (ACcESS)
Major National Research Facility
A multi-scale multi-physics ESS
• Achieve a holistic virtual earth simulation capability
• Provide a computational virtual earth serving
Australia’s national needs
• One of two science Major National Research Facilities
being established in Australia
• Develop software & models, and establish
thematic supercomputer needed for research outcomes
Multi-institutional, multi-disciplinary
Queensland (MNRF HQ)
QUAKES
Micro-models, LSMearth software
Comp. ES, earthquakes
Western Australia
Solid Mech, CSIRO; UWA
Nonlinear rheologies, geodynamics
Comp. mech, mining,
Victoria
ACRC/Mon, VPAC, Melb, RMIT
Geology, tectonics reconstruction
Min. exploration, SE/Vis/IT
Observ’s
Particle
Models
Continuum
Models
Data
Assimilation
Theory
Post
Processing
Visualisation
…
Computational
Communication Substrate
Virtual
earth laboratory
Earth dynamics
continental
crust
convergent
plate boundary
transform
plate boundary
divergent
plate boundary
oceanic
spreading ridge convergent
plate boundary
strato volcano
trench
trench
oceanic
crust
shield volcano
island arc
hot spot
subducting plate
lithosphere
asthenosphere
Earth dynamics
continental
crust
convergent
plate boundary
transform
plate boundary
divergent
plate boundary
oceanic
spreading ridge convergent
plate boundary
strato volcano
trench
trench
oceanic
crust
shield volcano
island arc
hot spot
subducting plate
lithosphere
asthenosphere
Earth dynamics
(Muhlhaus and Weatherley)
continental
crust
convergent
plate boundary
transform
plate boundary
divergent
plate boundary
oceanic
spreading ridge convergent
plate boundary
strato volcano
trench
trench
oceanic
crust
shield volcano
island arc
hot spot
subducting plate
lithosphere
asthenosphere
Earth dynamics
continental
crust
convergent
plate boundary
transform
plate boundary
divergent
plate boundary
oceanic
spreading ridge convergent
plate boundary
strato volcano
trench
trench
oceanic
crust
shield volcano
island arc
hot spot
subducting plate
lithosphere
asthenosphere
Earth dynamics
continental
crust
convergent
plate boundary
transform
plate boundary
divergent
plate boundary
oceanic
spreading ridge convergent
plate boundary
strato volcano
trench
trench
oceanic
crust
shield volcano
island arc
hot spot
subducting plate
lithosphere
asthenosphere
Earth dynamics
(Mora and Place)
continental
crust
convergent
plate boundary
transform
plate boundary
divergent
plate boundary
oceanic
spreading ridge convergent
plate boundary
strato volcano
trench
trench
oceanic
crust
shield volcano
island arc
hot spot
subducting plate
lithosphere
asthenosphere
Earth dynamics
continental
crust
convergent
plate boundary
transform
plate boundary
divergent
plate boundary
oceanic
spreading ridge convergent
plate boundary
strato volcano
trench
trench
oceanic
crust
shield volcano
island arc
hot spot
subducting plate
lithosphere
asthenosphere
Earth dynamics
(Mora and Place)
continental
crust
convergent
plate boundary
transform
plate boundary
divergent
plate boundary
oceanic
spreading ridge convergent
plate boundary
strato volcano
trench
trench
oceanic
crust
shield volcano
island arc
hot spot
subducting plate
lithosphere
asthenosphere
Earth dynamics
continental
crust
convergent
plate boundary
transform
plate boundary
divergent
plate boundary
oceanic
spreading ridge convergent
plate boundary
strato volcano
trench
trench
oceanic
crust
shield volcano
island arc
hot spot
subducting plate
lithosphere
asthenosphere
Earth dynamics
(Sandiford)
continental
crust
convergent
plate boundary
transform
plate boundary
divergent
plate boundary
oceanic
spreading ridge convergent
plate boundary
strato volcano
trench
trench
oceanic
crust
shield volcano
island arc
hot spot
subducting plate
lithosphere
asthenosphere
Earth dynamics
continental
crust
convergent
plate boundary
transform
plate boundary
divergent
plate boundary
oceanic
spreading ridge convergent
plate boundary
strato volcano
trench
trench
oceanic
crust
shield volcano
island arc
hot spot
subducting plate
lithosphere
asthenosphere
Earth dynamics
(Moresi and Muhlhaus)
continental
crust
convergent
plate boundary
transform
plate boundary
divergent
plate boundary
oceanic
spreading ridge convergent
plate boundary
strato volcano
trench
trench
oceanic
crust
shield volcano
island arc
hot spot
subducting plate
lithosphere
asthenosphere
Earth dynamics
BENEFITS
• Planetary scale minerals exploration
continental
crust
oceanic
crust
convergent
plate boundary
transform
plate boundary
divergent
• predictive capacity
for regional scale
plate boundary
oceanic and mineralisation
crustal deformation
spreading ridge convergent
plate
boundary
•
vastly
improved
scientific
underpinning
trench
strato volcano
trench
for natural & human-induced geohazard
mitigation and prevention
shield volcano
• virtual prototyping innovations
of
island arc
massive
or national scale natural and
hot
spot
engineered systems
subducting plate
lithosphere
• a potential for high-tech
spin-offs
asthenosphere
involving novel mining and materials
engineering technologies
Software framework
Super-Computer Capacity
Software
Type 1
Interface
(translator)
Software
Type 2
Interface
(translator)
Software
Type 3
Interface
Interface
(translator)
Database 1
Thermodynamic
Database 2
Rock property
Parameter
Setting
Interface
(input)
Software
Independent
Problem
Formulation
Visualisation
Interface
Inversion
Software
Template
Thinking /
Selling Tool
(Geometric &
Mathematical)
(Complex
System
Science)
EXPERT
USER
(input / output)
(most
parameters set)
NONEXPERT
USER
Management structure
ACcESS BOARD
Mike Etheridge
CHAIR
CEO
TBA
Peter Mora
MODEL & SOFTWARE CONSTRUCTION
Muhlhaus, Appelbe, Gross
Long Term
Short Term
CONTINUUM
PARTICLE & EXPLICIT
PLATE MANTLE
H. Muhlhaus UQ
MULTISCALE
MODELLING
A. Dyskin UWA
MINERALISATION
P. A-Epping /
P.Hornby CSIRO
GEOTALK
CHAIR RESEARCH COMMITTEE
CRUSTAL DYNAMICS
D.I. & H.X. UQ
EXPLICIT SIM.
PLATFORM
S. Abe UQ
CELLULAR AUTOMATA
D. Weatherly UQ
L. Gross (UQ)
DATA ASSIMILATION & SURFACE PROCESSES
Lister & Applebe
DATA ASSIMILATION
VIRTUAL EARTH
G. Lister, L. Ailleress Monash
SURFACE PROCESSES
M. Sandiford Melb. Uni.
Vision for future solid earth systems science
A predictive capability for solid earth system dynamics
Advances in understanding solid earth physics, numerical
simulation methodology & supercomputer technology
are bringing the vision within reach
Computational
Virtual earth laboratory
Model
Observns
Analysis
c.f. GCM’s
Next steps
• Integrate software developments and computational
environments/algorithms
• Ramp-up of national programs to capture benefits of
investment in research infrastructure
• Enhance supercomputers and connectivity
• Strengthen international collaboration and establish large
scale programatic research - international institute in two
years time frame
iSERVO Institute
International Solid Earth Research Virtual Earth Institute
Simulation
A powerful tool to fuel breakthroughs
Computational
Virtual earth laboratory
Model
Observn’s
Analysis