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AP Statistics Chapter 2 - The Normal Distribution 2.1 Density Curves and the Normal Distribution What You should Know From Chapter 1: Objective: 1) Know that the area under a density curve represent proportions of all observations and that the total area under a density curve is 1. 2) Approximately locate the median (equal-area point) and mean (balance point) on a density curve. 3) Know that the mean and median both lie at the center of a symmetric density curve and that the mean moves farther toward the long tail of a skewed curve. 4) Estimate μ and from a normal curve 5) Use the 68-95-99.7 rule and symmetry to state what percent of the observations from a normal distribution fall between two points To describe a distribution: - Make a graph - Look for overall patterns (shape, center, and spread) and outliers - Calculate a numerical summary to describe the center (mean, median) and spread (minimum, maximum, Q1, Q3, range, IQR, standard deviation) In addition to the above distributions sometimes the overall pattern of a large number of observations is so regular that we can describe it by a smooth curve. Percentiles The pth percentile of a distribution is the value with p percent of the observations less than it. Examples: Here are the scores of all 25 students in Mr. Pryor’s statistics class on their first test: 79 80 85 81 75 83 80 67 89 77 73 84 73 77 82 83 83 77 74 86 72 93 90 78 79 Problem: Use the scores on Mr. Pryor’s test to find the percentiles for the for the following students (how did they perform relative to their classmates): a) Jenny, who earned an 89. b) Norman, who earned a 72. c) Katie, who earned a 93. Density Curves d) the two students who earned scores of 80. A density curve describes the overall pattern of a distribution o Is always on or above the horizontal axis o Has exactly 1 underneath it o The area under the curve and above any range of values is the proportion of all observations Example 2.1 page 79 1 Median and Mean of a Density Curve Median of a density curve is the equal areas point, the point that divides the are under the curve in half Mean of a density curve is the balance point, at which the curve would balance if made of solid material. See figures 2.5 and 2.6 page 81-82. Density Curve Mean (μ) S.D. () Example: Computed from actual observations Mean ( x ) S.D. (s) Use the figure shown to answer the following questions. 1. Explain why this is a legitimate density curve. 2. About what proportion of observations lie between 7 and 8? 3. Mark the approximate location of the median. 4. Mark the approximate location of the mean. Explain why the mean and median have the relationship that they do in this case. Practice Problem 2.2 Uniform Density Curve page 83 #2.2 a. b. c. d. e. a. Practice Problem page 84 #2.3 b. c. d. e. 2 Normal Curve All Normal curves have the same overall shape: symmetric, single-peaked, bell shaped. A Normal distribution can be fully described by two parameters, its mean μ and standard deviation σ The mean is located in the center of the symmetric curve and is the same as the median. The standard deviation σ controls the spread of a Normal curve. Curves with larger standard deviations are more spread out. Normal Distributions N(μ,) A Normal distribution is described by a Normal density curve. The mean, µ, of a Normal distribution is at the center of the symmetric Normal curve. The standard deviation, σ, is the deviation is the distance from the center to the change-of-curvature points on either side. A short-cut notation for the normal distribution in N(μ,). The 68-95-99.7 Rule All normal curves they obey the 68-95-99.7% (Empirical) Rule. This rule tells us that in a normal distribution approximately 68% of the data values fall within one standard deviation (1) of the mean, 95% of the values fall within 2 of the mean, and 99.7% (almost all) of the values fall within 3 of the mean. Application of the 68-95-99.7 Rule Distribution of the heights of young women aged 18 to 24 What is the mean μ? What is the s.d. ? What is the height range for 95% of young women? What is the percentile for 64.5 in.? What is the percentile for 59.5 in.? What is the percentile for 67 in.? What is the percentile for 72 in.? 3 Practice Problem page 89 #2.6 and 2.7 Objective: 2.2 Standard Normal 6) Find and interpret the z score of an observation Calculations 7) Use the Z table and calculator to calculate the proportion of values above, below, or between two The Standard Normal Distribution Z-Score stated numbers 8) Calculate the point having a stated proportion of all values above or below it. 9) Construct and interpret a Normal Probability Plot To compare data from distributions with different means and standard deviations, we need to find a common scale. We accomplish this by using standard deviation units (z-scores) as our scale. Changing to these units is called standardizing. Standardizing data shifts the data by subtracting the mean and rescales the values by dividing by their standard deviation. z score datavalue mean st .dev. or z x Standardizing does not change the shape of the distribution. It changes the center (shifts it to zero) and the spread by making the standard deviation one. The standard normal distribution is the normal distribution N(0,1) with mean 0 and standard deviation 1. A z-score tells us how many standard deviations the original observation falls away from the mean, and in which direction. Observations larger than the mean are positive when standardized, and observations smaller than the mean are negative. The standard Normal 4 Table Normal Distribution Calculations Table A is a table of areas under the standard Normal curve. The table entry for each value z is the area under the curve to the left of z. For example, lets say that we know a girl named Georgia who is 60 inches tall and a girl named Deanna that is 68 inches tall. What are Georgia’s and Deanna’s standardized heights? Women’s heights are approximately normal with N(64.5, 2.5). a. For example, what proportion of all young women are less than 68 inches tall what is the percentile for Deanna’s height)? (in other words b. In what percentile does Georgia fall? How to Solve Problems Involving Normal Distributions State: Express the problem in terms of the observed variable x. Plan: Draw a picture of the distribution and shade the area of interest under the curve. Do: Perform calculations. Standardize x to restate the problem in terms of a standard Normal variable x. Use Table A and the fact that the total area under the curve is 1 to find the required area under the standard Normal curve. Conclude: Write your conclusion in context of the problem Normal calculations Example: On the driving range, Tiger Woods practices his swing with a particular club by hitting many, many balls. When tiger hits his driver, the distance the balls travels follows a Normal distribution with mean 304 yards and standard deviation 8 yards. What percent of Tiger’s drives travel at least 290 yards? 5 More complicated calculations Example: What percent of Tiger’s drives travel between 305 and 325? Using Table A in High levels of cholesterol in the blood increase the risk of heart disease. For 14 year old boys, the Reverse distribution of blood cholesterol is approximately Normal with mean µ = 170 milligrams of cholesterol Example: per deciliter of blood (mg/dl) and standard deviation σ = 30 mg/dl. What is the first quartile off the distribution of blood cholesterol? 6 Normal Probability Plots Assessing Normality using the Calculator To decide if a set of data is normal we can construct a normal probability plot. See Technology Toolbox page 105-106 Normal Distributions on the Calculator (See Technology Box page 115-117) Finding Areas with ShadeNorm Finding areas with normalcdf Finding z values with invNorm Assignment 2.2 page 109 #2.28-2.33,2.35 Summary 7