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Faculty of Engineering
Tanta University
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES
CHARACTERISTICS. CASE STUDY: AHD RESERVOIR, Egypt
“Exceed Regional Expert Workshop on Water Losses Management in
Water Supply Systems”
Antalya (Turkey) September 25–29, 2012
Dr. – Eng.: Mohamed Elshemy
[email protected]
Faculty of Engineering, Tanta University, Egypt
This study was financed by the Higher Education and Scientific Research Ministry, Egypt
and was conducted at LWI,TU-Braunschweig, Germany
OUTLINES
Introduction and Study Objective
Case Study Identification
Lake Nubia Hydrodynamic and Water Quality Model
Climate Change Estimates
Results
Conclusions and Outlook
27 . 09 . 2012
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Dr.-Eng.: M. E l s h e m y
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Tanta University – Egypt
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2
Global Climate Change
INTRODUCTION
STUDY OBJECTIVE
CASE STUDY
LAKE NUBIA MODEL
CLIMATE CHANGE
ESTIMATES
RESULTS
CONCLUSIONS and
OUTLOOK
27 . 09 . 2012
Multi-model averages and assessed ranges for surface warming. Source: USEPA based on IPCC 2007
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Dr.-Eng.: M. E l s h e m y
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Tanta University – Egypt
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Climate Change Impacts
 The latest IPCC Assessment Report (2007)
INTRODUCTION
stated that:
1.
STUDY OBJECTIVE
An increase by about 70% of greenhouse
gases emissions between 1970 and 2004
has been recorded.
CASE STUDY
2.
11 of the past 12 years have been the
warmest on record since 1850.
LAKE NUBIA MODEL
3.
lakes and rivers around the world are warming,
which affects thermal structure and lake chemistry.
CLIMATE CHANGE
ESTIMATES
 Developing countries, such as Egypt, are the
most threatened ones by the hydrological
impacts of global climate change (Svendsen and
RESULTS
Künkel 2008).
 River Nile is very sensitive to temperature and
CONCLUSIONS and
precipitation changes (Riebsame et al. 1995).`
OUTLOOK
27 . 09 . 2012
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Dr.-Eng.: M. E l s h e m y
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Tanta University – Egypt
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OBJECTIVE
INTRODUCTION
Future global climate change
impacts on the hydrodynamic
STUDY OBJECTIVE
and water quality
Developing a hydrodynamic and
CASE STUDY
characteristics of Lake Nubia
water quality model
LAKE NUBIA MODEL
CLIMATE CHANGE
Climate change estimates
ESTIMATES
RESULTS
Prediction of the model future
initial conditions
CONCLUSIONS and
OUTLOOK
27 . 09 . 2012
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Dr.-Eng.: M. E l s h e m y
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Tanta University – Egypt
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Study Area
INTRODUCTION
STUDY OBJECTIVE
CASE STUDY
LAKE NUBIA MODEL
CLIMATE CHANGE
ESTIMATES
RESULTS
CONCLUSIONS and
OUTLOOK
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Dr.-Eng.: M. E l s h e m y
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Tanta University – Egypt
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Aswan High Dam Reservoir Morphological Data
INTRODUCTION
At the maximum water level (182 m),
STUDY OBJECTIVE
AHD reservoir has a total capacity of
162 BCM (24.4 BCM for Lake Nubia)
CASE STUDY
and its surface area is about 6540
SKm (968 SKM for Lake Nubia).
LAKE NUBIA MODEL
The total length of the reservoir is
about 500 KM, of that 150 KM in
CLIMATE CHANGE
Sudan (Lake Nubia).
ESTIMATES
RESULTS
The average width is about 12 Km
(the maximum is about 35 Km) .
The mean depth is about 25 m (the
CONCLUSIONS and
maximum is about 130 m) .
OUTLOOK
27 . 09 . 2012
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Dr.-Eng.: M. E l s h e m y
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Tanta University – Egypt
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Lake Nubia
INTRODUCTION
The study area is a true desert climate.
 The southern two thirds of Lake Nubia are narrow.
STUDY OBJECTIVE
 The southern part of the lake is a riverine section,
CASE STUDY
LAKE NUBIA MODEL
CLIMATE CHANGE
ESTIMATES
RESULTS
with all-year riverine characteristics.
 The northern part of the lake is a
semi-riverine section, with
riverine characteristics during
the flood season and lacustrine
characteristics during the rest of
CONCLUSIONS and
OUTLOOK
27 . 09 . 2012
the year.
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Dr.-Eng.: M. E l s h e m y
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Tanta University – Egypt
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CE-QUAL-W2 Code
INTRODUCTION
CE-QUAL-W2 computes:
Typical CEQUAL-W2
model grid.
 Water levels
STUDY OBJECTIVE
Source:
www.ce.pdx.edu/
w2/
 Evaporation
CASE STUDY
 Horizontal and vertical
velocities
LAKE NUBIA MODEL
 Water temperature
CLIMATE CHANGE
ESTIMATES
 21 other water quality
parameters - complex
interactions (such as dissolved
RESULTS
CONCLUSIONS and
oxygen).
 Over 60 derived variables
Internal flux between dissolved oxygen and other
compartments . Source: Cole and Wells, 2008.
including pH, TOC, etc.
OUTLOOK
27 . 09 . 2012
Link to CE-QUAL-W2 homepage http://www.ce.pdx.edu/w2/
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Dr.-Eng.: M. E l s h e m y
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Tanta University – Egypt
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CE-QUAL-W2 Input Data
INTRODUCTION
Bathymetry data
STUDY OBJECTIVE
Meteorological data
CASE STUDY
Inflow and outflow
LAKE NUBIA MODEL
volumes
CLIMATE CHANGE
Inflow temperatures
ESTIMATES
Hydraulic and kinetic
RESULTS
parameters
A simple representation
of a CE-QUAL-W2 grid.
Source: Galloway and Green,
2003.
CONCLUSIONS and
OUTLOOK
27 . 09 . 2012
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Dr.-Eng.: M. E l s h e m y
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Tanta University – Egypt
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Model Grid
INTRODUCTION
 3 Branches
 202 Segments
STUDY OBJECTIVE
 27 Layers (each is a 2 m depth)
CASE STUDY
 10 Control Stations
LAKE NUBIA MODEL
CLIMATE CHANGE
ESTIMATES
RESULTS
CONCLUSIONS and
OUTLOOK
27 . 09 . 2012
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Dr.-Eng.: M. E l s h e m y
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Tanta University – Egypt
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INTRODUCTION
Hydrological and Meteorological Input Data
Hydrorological input data
STUDY OBJECTIVE
CASE STUDY
LAKE NUBIA MODEL
CLIMATE CHANGE
Inflow (billion cubic meters)
35
Lake Nubia Inflow (2005-2007)
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
M-05
J-05
S-05
O-05
D-05
F-06
M-06
M-06
J-06
A-06
O-06
N-06
J-07
M-07
A-07
J-07
A-07
Month / Year
Meteorological input data
Air Temperature and Dew point
30
ESTIMATES
T AIR
RESULTS
CONCLUSIONS and
Temperature (°C)
26
T DEW
22
18
14
10
6
2
-27-Jan
8-Jan
9-Jan
10-Jan 11-Jan 12-Jan 13-Jan 14-Jan 15-Jan 16-Jan 17-Jan 18-Jan 19-Jan 20-Jan
OUTLOOK
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Day / January 2006
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Dr.-Eng.: M. E l s h e m y
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Source: http://www.wunderground.com/
Tanta University – Egypt
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Water quality input data
INTRODUCTION
 17 Measured stations
 5 Layers/station
STUDY OBJECTIVE
CASE STUDY
LAKE NUBIA MODEL
CLIMATE CHANGE
ESTIMATES
RESULTS
CONCLUSIONS and
The measured water
temperature (° C), of the
surface layer, at different
stations and dates, January
2006.
The measured total
suspended solids (mg/L), of
the surface layer, at different
stations and dates, January
2006.
OUTLOOK
27 . 09 . 2012
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Dr.-Eng.: M. E l s h e m y
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Tanta University – Egypt
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Model Calibration and Verification
Model calibration
INTRODUCTION
6
CASE STUDY
LAKE NUBIA MODEL
CLIMATE CHANGE
Water Depth (m)
STUDY OBJECTIVE
DO (mg/L)
8
10 12
14
0
0
0
2
1
4
2
6
3
50
St. 2, Jan. 8, 2006
100 150 200
0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250
0
2
TSS
meas
TSS
sim
4
6
AME=0.07
RMS=0.09
8
PO4 (mg/L)
TSS (mg/L)
AME=3.988
RMS=4.140
4
St. 4, Jan. 9, 2006
AME=0.002
RMS=0.002
8
St. 8, Jan. 16, 2006
ESTIMATES
Model verification
RESULTS
Model contour results on
12. February 2007.
CONCLUSIONS and
OUTLOOK
27 . 09 . 2012
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Dr.-Eng.: M. E l s h e m y
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Tanta University – Egypt
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Approach
INTRODUCTION
STUDY OBJECTIVE
CASE STUDY
11 GCMs
2 emmission
scenarios (A2 and
B1)
I (2010-2039)
II (2040-2069)
LAKE NUBIA MODEL
Regional
downscaling and
inflow prediction
Global modeling (4th
IPCC report 2007)
III (2070-2099)
PCMDI website
TAIR
Bias correction,
spatially and
temporally
downscale
P
Climate change
impacts on Lake
Nubia characteristics
TAIR
P&Q
A macro-scale
hydrological model
to predict the river
inflow
Hydrodynamic
and water
quality
characteristics
Beyene et al. (2010)
CLIMATE CHANGE
ESTIMATES
RESULTS
CONCLUSIONS and
OUTLOOK
27 . 09 . 2012
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Dr.-Eng.: M. E l s h e m y
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Tanta University – Egypt
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Av. Annual Precipitation Change
(%)
60
GFDL
40
STUDY OBJECTIVE
CASE STUDY
20
MPI
0
2
4
6
-20
MRI
CNRM
MPI
0
2
IPSL
-40
INMCM
HadCM3
INMCM
HadCM3
-60
Av. Annual Temperature Change (°C)
PCM
40%
27 . 09 . 2012
III-A2 Scenario
34.7%
Av. Annual Inflow Change
(%)
ESTIMATES
OUTLOOK
PCM
Annual Nile inflow changes (rel. Av. 2006)
CLIMATE CHANGE
CONCLUSIONS and
MRI
6
MIROC
I-B1 Scenario
RESULTS
4
-20
IPSL
Av. Annual Temperature Change (°C)
CSIRO
0
MIROC
-60
GFDL
20
CNRM
0
GISS
40
CSIRO
-40
LAKE NUBIA MODEL
60
GISS
Av. Annual Precipitation Change
(%)
INTRODUCTION
Future Climatic Changes Predictions
Annual Air temp. and Precipitation changes (rel. Av. 1950-1999)
27.2%
30%
20%
12.0%
13.5%
10%
2.9%
-1.3%
0%
I-A2
I-B1
-10%
II-A2
II-B1
III-A2
III-B1
Climate change scenario
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Dr.-Eng.: M. E l s h e m y
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Tanta University – Egypt
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Water Surface Levels
INTRODUCTION
STUDY OBJECTIVE
CASE STUDY
LAKE NUBIA MODEL
CLIMATE CHANGE
Water Level Change %
5%
9
7
5
4
3
2
4%
I-A2
3%
I-B1
III-A2
2%
Station
1%
0%
300
320
340
360
-1%
380
400
420
440
460
480
500
Distance upstream Aswan High Dam (km)
ESTIMATES
RESULTS
6
The Lake Nubia water levels change (%) due to global climate change for some
selected scenarios.
CONCLUSIONS and
OUTLOOK
27 . 09 . 2012
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Dr.-Eng.: M. E l s h e m y
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Tanta University – Egypt
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Evaporation Water Losses
INTRODUCTION
STUDY OBJECTIVE
10%
LAKE NUBIA MODEL
CLIMATE CHANGE
Evaporation change (%)
CASE STUDY
ESTIMATES
8%
6%
4%
2%
4.2%
4.1%
I-A2
I-B1
6.2%
6.1%
II-A2
II-B1
7.7%
7.4%
III-A2
III-B1
0%
Scenario
RESULTS
CONCLUSIONS and
The Lake Nubia evaporation water losses change (%) due to global climate change
for all scenarios.
OUTLOOK
27 . 09 . 2012
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Dr.-Eng.: M. E l s h e m y
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Tanta University – Egypt
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Thermal Structure
INTRODUCTION
STUDY OBJECTIVE
Temperature (°C)
15
17
19
21
23
Temperature (°C)
25
15
17
19
21
Temperature (°C)
23
25
15
0
0
0
2
2
2
4
4
17
19
21
23
25
LAKE NUBIA MODEL
CLIMATE CHANGE
ESTIMATES
Water depth (m)
CASE STUDY
Tbase
4
Tclim
6
6
∆T=-7.42%
8
St. 5, I-B1 Scenario
6
∆T= 5.91%
∆T=5.05%
8
8
St. 7, II-A2 Scenario
St. 7, III-A2 Scenario
RESULTS
CONCLUSIONS and
The Lake Nubia water temperature profiles due to global climate change for some selected
scenarios.
OUTLOOK
(∆T is the average of differences between the simulated base case and the simulated scenario case).
27 . 09 . 2012
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Dr.-Eng.: M. E l s h e m y
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Tanta University – Egypt
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Water Quality Characteristics
INTRODUCTION
DO mg/L
STUDY OBJECTIVE
6
8
10
NH4 mg/L
12
14 0.00
0.10
TSS mg/L
0.20
0
100
200
0
LAKE NUBIA MODEL
CLIMATE CHANGE
ESTIMATES
Water depth (m)
CASE STUDY
2
Base
Clim
4
6
∆C=-2.75%
8
∆C= 72.4%
∆C= 43.05%
St. 7, I-B1 Scenario
RESULTS
CONCLUSIONS and
OUTLOOK
27 . 09 . 2012
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Dr.-Eng.: M. E l s h e m y
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Tanta University – Egypt
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Sensitivity Analysis
CASE STUDY
Average change %
7%
STUDY OBJECTIVE
T I-A2
T II-A2
T II-B1
T III-A2
T III-B1
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0
1
2
3
4
5
Station
6
7
8
9
10
Air temp. and inflow
CLIMATE CHANGE
8%
ESTIMATES
I-A2
I-B1
II-A2
II-B1
III-A2
III-B1
6%
Average change %
CONCLUSIONS and
T I-B1
6%
0%
LAKE NUBIA MODEL
RESULTS
Water Temperature
Air temp. effect only
INTRODUCTION
4%
2%
0%
-2%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Station
-4%
-6%
OUTLOOK
27 . 09 . 2012
-8%
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Dr.-Eng.: M. E l s h e m y
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Tanta University – Egypt
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Sensitivity Analysis
Dissolved Oxygen
INTRODUCTION
5%
Average difference
T I-A2
STUDY OBJECTIVE
CASE STUDY
T I-B1
T II-A2
T II-B1
T III-A2
T III-B1
3%
Station
1%
-1% 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
-3%
-5%
LAKE NUBIA MODEL
Longitudinal DO average change (%) profiles for different climate
change scenarios for change of air temperature only
5%
Average change (%)
CLIMATE CHANGE
ESTIMATES
RESULTS
I-A2
I-B1
II-A2
II-B1
III-A2
III-B1
3%
1%
-1% 0
Station
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
-3%
-5%
CONCLUSIONS and
Longitudinal DO average change (%) profiles for different climate
change scenarios for change of both air temperature and inflow
OUTLOOK
27 . 09 . 2012
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Dr.-Eng.: M. E l s h e m y
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Tanta University – Egypt
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C O N C L U S I O N S and O U T L O O K
INTRODUCTION
STUDY OBJECTIVE
The climate change will have a significant impact on the examined
hydrodynamic and water quality characteristics.
(-7.4% for water temperature, -3.9% for DO, and 72.4% for ammonium).
CASE STUDY
Sensitivity analysis results show a severe effect of the inflow change
LAKE NUBIA MODEL
on the water temperature and most of the water quality characteristics
of the reservoir.
CLIMATE CHANGE
ESTIMATES
Daily records of hydrodynamic and water quality characteristics of
AHD reservoir for at least one year should be examined to investigate
RESULTS
the impacts of the climate change on the reservoir thermal structure
and water column stability.
CONCLUSIONS and
OUTLOOK
27 . 09 . 2012
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Dr.-Eng.: M. E l s h e m y
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Tanta University – Egypt
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Source: Wikipedia
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Source: MWRI, 2005
Source: National Geographic