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Transcript 
1. The functioning of the financial
markets is continuing to improve
TED spread, basis points
500
500
Sweden
450
450
Euro area
400
400
USA
350
350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
Jan07
Apr07
Jul07
Oct07
Jan08
Apr08
Jul08
Oct08
Jan09
Apr09
Jul09
Oct09
Jan10
Note. TED spread is calculated as the difference between the three-month interbank rate and treasury bills.
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
2. Central banks’ total assets
Percentage of GDP
30
30
The Riksbank
25
25
ECB
Federal reserve
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
Jan-07
0
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and respective central bank
3. Volume of world trade
World trade monitor index, year 2000 = 100, seasonally adjusted data
175
175
150
150
125
125
100
100
75
75
00
02
04
06
08
10
Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
4. Global GDP growth
Annual percentage change
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
70
75
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
Note. Striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast MPU December 2009. Sources: IMF and the Riksbank
5. GDP growth in the US and Euro
area
Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
USA
-3
-4
Euro area
-4
-5
-5
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast MPU December 2009
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, and the Riksbank
6. Range in Consensus forecasts for
subsequent year
Standard deviation
1.0
1.0
USA
Euro area
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Source: Copyright Consensus Economics Inc.
7. GDP in the BRIC countries
Annual percentage change
2007 2008
2009*
2010*
2011*
Brazil
5.7
5.1
-0.4
4.7
3.7
Russia
8.1
5.6
-9.0
3.6
3.4
India
9.4
7.3
5.6
7.7
7.8
China
13.0
9.0
8.7
10.0
9.7
* IMF forecast January 2010
Source: IMF
8. Consumer prices, USA
Annual percentage change
6
6
CPI
5
CPI excluding energy and food
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and OECD
9. Consumer prices, euro area
Annual percentage change
5
5
HCPI
HICP excluding energy
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: Eurostat and OECD
10. Economic Tendency Indicator and
Purchasing Manager Index
Index, average value = 100 respective net figures
120
70
115
65
110
60
105
55
100
50
95
45
90
40
85
35
80
30
The Economic Tendency Indicator (left-hand scale)
75
25
Purchasing managers’ index (right hand scale)
70
20
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
11. GDP growth in Sweden
Annual percentage change, fixed prices
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
-5
-5
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast MPU December 2009.
12. GDP level in Sweden
Index 2008 Q2=100
110
110
105
105
100
100
95
95
90
90
85
85
80
80
75
75
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast MPU December 2009.
13. Employment rate
Employment as a percentage of population, 16-64 years, seasonally adjusted
data
84
84
82
82
80
80
78
78
76
76
74
74
72
72
70
70
80
85
90
95
00
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast MPU December.
05
10
Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
14. Unemployment
Percentage of the labour force, seasonally adjusted data
14
14
Unemployment, 16-64 years
Unemployment, 15-74 years
December
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast, 15-74 years.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
15. Current account balance and
public finances
Percentage of GDP
12
12
General government net lending
10
10
Current account balance
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
-8
-8
-10
-10
-12
-12
80
84
88
92
96
00
04
08
12
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast MPU December 2009.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
16. Industrial and service production
Index January 2005=100, seasonally adjusted data
120
120
Industrial production
115
115
Service production
110
110
105
105
100
100
95
95
90
90
85
85
80
80
75
75
00
01
02
03
Note. Three-month moving average.
04
05
06
07
08
09
Source: Statistics Sweden
17. Low resource utilisation
Percentage deviation from the HP trend
5
5
GDP
4
4
Employment
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
-5
-5
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast MPU December 2009.
09
10
11
12
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
18. Employment in industry and private
services
Thousands
2,200
1,000
2,100
900
2,000
800
1,900
700
1,800
600
1,700
500
1,600
400
1,500
300
1,400
200
Private services (right-hand scale)
1,300
100
Industry (left-hand scale)
1,200
0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Source: Statistics Sweden
19. Inflation, CPI och CPIF
Annual percentage change
5
5
CPI
4
4
CPIF
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Note. CPIF is CPI with a fixed mortgage interest rate. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast MPU December 2009
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
20. HICP inflation
Annual percentage change
5
5
Sweden
Euro area
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast MPU December 2009.
Sources: Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
21. Unit labour costs
Annual percentage change
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
Unit labour cost
Productivity
Labour cost per hour
-1
-2
94
96
98
00
-1
-2
02
04
06
08
10
12
Note. Broken lines and striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast MPU December
2009.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
22. TCW exchange rate
Index, 18 Nov 1992 = 100
160
160
155
155
150
150
145
145
140
140
135
135
130
130
125
125
120
120
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast MPU December
12
Source: The Riksbank
23. Repo rate
Percent
5.0
5.0
4.5
4.5
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast MPU December 2009, quarterly averages. Source: The Riksbank
24. Inflation expectations, 5 years
ahead
Percent
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Source: TNS SIFO Prospera
25. Low wage increases
Annual percentage change
7
7
Centrally agreed
6
6
Total
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast MPU December 2009.
Sourcesr: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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