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COVENANT UNIVERSITY OTA College of Development Studies Department of Economics and Development Studies COURSE COMPACT COURSE CODE: COURSE TITLE: SESSION: SEMESTER: LECTURER: ECN 334 Statistical Theory 2014/2015 academic session ALPHA (i) Dr. Henry Okodua (Room C302C) (ii) Dr. Paul Ojeaga (Room H210) CONTACT DAYS: (i) Wednesday (12-2) pm Total Contact Hours per Week: Two BRIEF COURSE DESCRIPTION: The central focus of this course is the branch of statistics known as inferential statistics. This has to do essentially with the science of using probability to make decision. Because probability is basic to statistical decision making considerable energy will be devoted to the application of the “laws of chance” throughout this course. COURSE OBJECTIVE: This course is aimed at equipping the student with the relevant statistical techniques that are applicable to empirical economics. The topics are carefully selected in order to build on knowledge already acquired by the student in mathematics and elementary statistics. It is hoped that the student will be able to devise more precise and robust methods of analyzing quantitative economic data at the end of this course. MODE OF TEACHING/LECTURE DELIVERY: Formal teaching technique will be adopted. However, modern teaching aid including multi-media projector and audiovisuals and smart-boards shall be employed in order to enhance teaching effectiveness. Lecture materials will be made available online via the Covenant University college portal. The student is therefore expected to consult these materials, particularly the lecture notes, before each lecture. Continuous assessment for this course will be based on the following: (i) Regular and punctual attendance of all scheduled lectures by the student (ii) The level of participation of the student in every authorized class discussion during lectures (iii) The quality of participation in organized tutorial classes (iv) Performance of the student in all administered class tests (scheduled and impromptu) during the semester, including the mid-semester examination. GRADING METHOD: This is comprised of the following: End of semester examination: 70% Continuous Assessment: (i) Mid-Semester examination: 15% COURSE OUTLINE Module One: Basic probability concepts Week One The concept of probability Approaches to probability Definition of Terms Sample Space and Probability Measure Conditional Probability Assignment of Probability Sample Space Mutually exclusive events Informal definition of probability Classical definition of probability Frequency interpretation of probability Week Two Axiom of Probability Total Probability and Bayes Theorem MODULE TWO: Random variables and probability distributions Week Three Random Variables Probability distributions of a random variable Probability distribution function for discrete random variables Week Four Probability density function for continuous random variables Properties of random variables Cumulative distribution function Module three: mathematical expectations Week Five Mathematical Expectations and the concept of expected value Properties of expected value Introduction to moments and moments of a single random variable Central moment, variance and standard deviation Week Six Moment generating function MGF, mean and variance of random variable Module Four: Hypothesis Testing Reference applied statistical for engineers Chapters 9 & 10 (pp 278 - 432) Week Seven Introduction Level of significance The role significance level in hypothesis testing Selecting a level of significance Week Eight Choosing between Type I and Type II errors The power of test of hypothesis Summary & Exercises Ground Rules/ Regulation Students are expected to be in class before commencement of lectures. They are equally expected to be well behaved so that the aims of the course will be achieved. Entrance into the lecture halls is not condoned ten minutes into the lecture. Students are encouraged to participate actively in class during interactive sessions. Prior notice should be given if a student will be absent from any class. Alignment to Core Values, Visions and Goals The course content and delivery is in line with the university vision and goals in sense that it prepares students who will take up leadership positions in government, industry, banking, planning, academics and the service sector not only within the domestic economy but also in regional and international institutions. Recommended Textbooks i.) ii.) iii.) iv.) Dowdy S., S. Weardon & D. Chilko (2004) Statistics for Research . New York. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jasingh, L.R. (2000) Statisitics for utterly confused New York Mcgraw Hill Inc Lind D.A., W.G. Marchal & S.A. Wathen (2006) Basic Statistics for Business and Economics. New York. McGraw – Hill Inc Rumsey D. (2007) Intermediate Statistics for Dummies. Indiana. Wiley Publishing Inc.