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Statistical Inferences
QM-210
Basic Information
BBA(H),BBIS,BSEF
Fall 2014
Program
Semester
Credit Hours
Pre requisites (if any)
Resource Person
3
Business Statistics, QM-120
Contact information
Course Description:
As a manager wherever you find yourself working, you may need to know population values
(parameters) to help you make decisions. An accountant needs to know the percentage of accounts with
correct balances. A marketing manager needs to know the average income in her target-markets area. A
manufacturing manager needs to know the average machine downtime in his plant. The programming
manager at a major television network needs to know the percentage of the people watching each of his
shows so he can cancel the poor performers. A restaurant manager needs to know the percentages of
customers who will order the daily special so she will know how many orders to have available.
In these cases and many others like them, managers as decision makers need to know a population
parameter. However, gaining access to an entire population is extremely expensive and time-consuming
and, in many cases, infeasible. Therefore, an alternative approach is to select a sample from the
population. The sample data are used to compute a desired statistic that forms an estimate of the
corresponding population parameter, and that is what statistical inference is all about.
Learning Objectives:
Ser.
Course Learning Objectives
#
1
This course aims to provide the
participants with statistical and data
analytical tools which will enable
them to identify and formulate
problems where statistics can have an
impact.
2
The participants’ learning regarding
quantitative tools and techniques will
increase their analytical abilities. This
will enable future managers to use
these tools and techniques in planning,
executing and evaluating their
business needs.
Link with Program Learning
Objectives
To incorporate within the curriculum
major emphasis on the development of
students' fundamental learning skills, for
example: reasoning and quantitative
abilities.
To meet the demand of corporate world
for managers who are equipped with
business knowledge and are able to cope
with constantly rising business needs.
________________________________________________________________________School of Business
& Economics
QM-210
University of Management and Technology
3
This course will enable participants to
recognize when and where better data
and information are needed for
decision making in local as well as
global market place.
To train the students to develop an
understanding and appreciation of the
global business needs and its fulfillment in
the globally competitive environment.
4
This course will develop in
Use critical thinking skills to evaluate
participants the essential intuitive and information, solve problems, and make
analytical skills required to assess data sound decisions.
with healthy skepticism and seek
expert help when and where needed.
Textbooks & Supplies:
1. Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach (7th Edition)
By: David F. Groebner, Patrick W. Shannon, Phillip C. Fry, Kent D. Smith
2. Especially Designed Handouts with the Purpose to Enhance Students’ Data Analysis
Capabilities using MS Excel
Supplementary Material:
3. Statistical Techniques in Business and Economics (13th Edition)
By: Douglas A. Lind, William G. Marchal, and David Wathen
4. Statistics for Business and Economics (7th Edition)
By: Benson and McClave
Magazines/ Journals:
1. AMSTATNEWS
The Membership Magazine of the American Statistical Association
2. Journal of Business and Economics Statistics
An Official Journal of the American Statistical Association
Web links:
moodle.umt.edu.pk
Email Addresses
Participants should establish their email accounts on the UMT email system, and use this address for all
types of academic communications during this course.
Moodle
Participants should regularly visit the course website on MOODLE Course Management system, and
fully benefit from its capabilities
Classroom Behavior:
Positive and constructive class participation will be monitored for each class. Particular emphasis will be
given during the presentation sessions. The manner in which the question is asked or answered will also
be noted. Your behaviour, as business executive will contribute to the class participation marks.
________________________________________________________________________School of Business
& Economics
QM-210
University of Management and Technology
Participant Responsibilities:
The learning process is based on independent work with texts, textbook, and cases supported by lectures
and assignments/cases - see schedule. Participants are supposed to have read the text chapters under
discussion in advance. Questions answered to these text chapters, will contribute to the class participation
marks.
Use of Unfair Means
Participants are expected to do their own work in their assignments, quizzes and exams. They are always
encouraged to discuss with each other but the assignments, quizzes and exams should be their own work
reflecting their own effort and intellect. The School of Business & Economics is VERY STRICT against
any action of plagiarism, copying and cheating. So don’t put yourself in any embarrassing position that
may mar your career. In summary, any or all of these actions may be taken against you in case of
cheating.

Zero Point for the assignment/quiz/exam

Case would be sent to UMC Committee
Use of Mobile Phones and Other Electronic Devices

Use of mobile phones and similar devices is prohibited during the class

Your phone should not be heard or visible during the class

All mobile phones should be turned-off (or at least in the “silent” mode) and secured in pockets or
bags during the class time, and may not be used for ANY purpose, including calculations, timekeeping, etc. In case you are anticipating an emergency call, you need to discuss this matter with
the resource person BEFORE the start of the class
Entering and Leaving the Classroom
You are requested to seek permission from the resource person while entering or leaving the classroom
during the session
Tests and Grading:
According to new grading policy participants are supposed to obtain 50% marks in 70% evaluation and
50% marks in their final exam. Passing marks are 50% of total assessment.
Quizzes/Class Participation:
Quizzes will be taken according to calendar of activities. The quizzes are aimed at evaluating the
participants’ understanding and clarity of different concepts. Some corrective action will be taken if
necessary, to fill the gap between desired and actual. Surprise quizzes may also be taken.
Required Material for QM-210
Participants are required to bring the following in every class they come to attend:
1.
Textbook
2.
Calculator
3.
Ring file (for notes)
4.
Lead pencil (and accessories)
(optional)
________________________________________________________________________School of Business
& Economics
QM-210
University of Management and Technology
NOTE: Failure to bring any of the first three things or being absent or late in a class, may result in a loss
of marks in your class participation, and may adversely affect your final grade.
Assessment Mode and Weightage
1. Quizzes
20%
2. Assignments
15%
3. Project/Presentation
10%
4. Class Participation
5%
5. Mid Term
20%
6. End Term
30%
Calendar of Activities
Sess.
1-2
3-4
Topics to be Covered
Introduction
 Review of Probability
and Probability
Distribution Concepts
 Sampling and Sampling
Distribution Concepts
Estimating Single
Population Parameters:
 Point of Confidence
Interval Estimates for a
Population Mean:
 Points Estimates and
Confidence Intervals
 Confidence Interval
Estimate for the
Population Mean, σ
Known Confidence
Interval Calculation
 Impact of the Confidence
Level on the Interval
Estimate
 Impact of the sample size
on the Interval Estimate
 Confidence Interval
Estimates for a
Population Mean, σ
Unknown student’s tdistribution
 Estimation with Larger
Sample Size
Readings
& Page
Numbers
CH:4,5,7
Page:
330-361
David F.
Groebner
CH:8
Page:
157-238
285-315
David F.
Groebner
Expected
Quizzes
Assignments and
Problems
Lecture and
discussion
regarding
Business,
economics &
finance
applications
Lecture and
discussion
regarding
Business,
economics &
finance
applications
Learning objective
This topic aims to review and discuss
the basic concepts of probability and
sampling distribution
These topics intend to discuss the
difference between point estimates and
confidence intervals estimates and how
these concepts are helpful for
managerial level decision making
Assignment # 1
Quiz # 1
________________________________________________________________________School of Business
& Economics
QM-210
University of Management and Technology
5-6
7-10
Estimating Single
Population Parameters:
 Determining the
Required Sample size
for Estimating a
Population Mean:
 Determining the required
Sample size for
Estimating µ, σ Known
 Determining the required
Sample size for
Estimating µ, σ
Unknown
 Estimating a Population
Proportion
 Confidence Interval
Estimate for a Population
Proportion
 Determining the
Required Sample size for
estimating a Population
Proportion
Introduction to Hypothesis
Testing:
 Hypothesis Tests for
Means:
 Formulating the
Hypothesis
 Null and Alternative
Hypothesis
 Testing the Status Quo
 Testing a Research
Hypothesis
 Testing a claim about the
Population
 Types of Statistical
Errors
 Significance Level and
Critical values
 Hypothesis test for µ, σ
Known
 Calculating Critical
Values
 Decision Rules and Test
Statistics
 P-Value Approach
 Types of Hypothesis test
 P-value for Two-Tailed
Test
 Hypothesis test for µ, σ
Unknown
 Hypothesis tests for
Population Proportion
 Testing a hypothesis
about a single population
CH:8
Page:
330-361
David F.
Groebner
Lecture and
discussion
regarding
Business,
economics &
finance
applications
Assignment # 2
This topic aims to describe the
appropriate sample size when it comes
to estimate a population mean based on
the sample information. Also it
describes the situations under which
estimating population proportion is
preferred over population mean.
Quiz # 2
CH:9
Page:
375 - 414
David F.
Groebner
Lecture and
discussion
regarding
Business,
economics &
finance
applications
Assignment # 3
This topic plans to discuss the most
important feature of inferential
statistics which is hypothesis testing,
the situations under which it is used,
how it is used, and its significance in
terms of completing and carrying out
different research projects.
Quiz # 3
________________________________________________________________________School of Business
& Economics
QM-210
University of Management and Technology




11–12
13-14
proportion
Types of Error
Calculating Beta
Controlling Alpha and
Beta
Power of the Test
Estimation and Hypothesis
Testing for two Populations
 Estimation for two
Population Means using
Independent Samples
 Estimating the difference
between two population
means when σ1 and σ2 are
known, using
Independent samples
 Estimating the difference
between two population
means when σ1 and σ2
are unknown, using
Independent samples
 What if the populations
Variances are not equal?
Estimation and Hypothesis
Testing for two Populations
 Hypothesis test for two
Population means using
Independent Samples
 Testing for µ1- µ2 when
σ1 and σ2 are known,
using Independent
samples using P-Values
 Testing for µ1- µ2 when
σ1 and σ2 are Unknown,
using Independent
samples
 What if the Population
Variances are not equal?
 Interval Estimation and
Hypothesis test for
paired samples
 Why use paired samples?
 Hypothesis testing for
paired samples
 Estimation and
Hypothesis Test for two
Population Proportions
 Estimating the difference
between two Population
Proportions
 Hypothesis test for the
difference between two
Population Proportions
CH:10
Page:
429- 466
David F.
Groebner
Lecture and
discussion
regarding
Business,
economics &
finance
applications
Take home
Assignment
This topic targets to discuss the logic
behind, and demonstrate the techniques
for, using sample data to test
hypotheses and develop interval
estimates about the difference between
two population means for independent
samples.
Take home Quiz
Lecture and
CH:10
Page:
429 - 466
David F.
Groebner
discussion
regarding
Business,
economics &
finance
This topic targets to discuss the logic
behind, and demonstrate the techniques
for, using sample data to test
hypotheses and develop interval
estimates about the difference between
two population proportions for
independent samples.
applications
________________________________________________________________________School of Business
& Economics
QM-210
University of Management and Technology
17-21
22-24
Review Session
Mid Term
15-16
Analysis of the Variance:
 One-way analysis of the
variance
 The Logic behind oneway ANOVA
 Partitioning the sum of
square
 The ANOVA
Assumptions
 Applying One-way
ANOVA
 The turkey-Karmer
Producer for multiple
comparisons
 Fixed effects versus
Random Effect in
analysis of Variance
 Randomized complete
Block Analysis of
Variance:
 Randomized complete
block ANOVA
 Was blocking necessary?
 Fisher’s Least Significant
difference Test
 Two-Factor Analysis
of Variance with
Replication:
 Two-factor ANOVA
with Replications
 Interaction Explained
 A caution about
interaction
Introduction to Linear
Regression and Correlation
Analysis
 Scatter Plots and
Correlation:
 Correlation Versus
Regression
 The Correlation
Coefficient
 Significance test for the
Correlation
 Cause and effect
Interpretations



Simple Linear
Regression Analysis:
The Regression Model
and Assumption
Meaning of the
CH:12
Page:
509-555
David F.
Groebner
Lecture and
discussion
regarding
Business,
economics &
finance
applications
Assignment # 4
Quiz # 4
CH:14
Page:
621 - 664
David F.
Groebner
Lecture and
discussion
regarding
Business,
economics &
finance
applications
Quiz # 5
This topic is aimed to provide the basic
logic of analysis of variance, perform a
hypothesis test for a single-factor
design using ANOVA manually and
with the help of MS Excel, conduct and
interpret post-analysis of variance
pairwise comparisons procedures
recognize when randomized block
ANOVA is useful and be able to
perform ANOVA on randomized block
design.
To let the students know to calculate
and interpret the connection between
two variables, to determine whether the
connection is significant, to calculate
the simple linear regression equation
for a set of data and know the basic
assumptions behind regression
analysis, to determine whether a
regression model is significant.
________________________________________________________________________School of Business
& Economics
QM-210
University of Management and Technology




25-26
27-28
Regression Coefficient
Least square Regression
properties
Significance test in
Regression Analysis
The Coefficient of
Determination, R2
Significance of the slope
Coefficient
Introduction to Linear
Regression and Correlation
Analysis:
 Uses for Regression
Analysis
 Regression Analysis for
Description
 Regression Analysis for
Prediction
 Confidence interval for
the average y, Given x
 Prediction interval for a
Particular y, Given x
 Residual Analysis
 Common problems Using
Regression analysis
Multiple Regression Analysis
and Model Building:
 Introduction to Multiple
Regression Analysis:
 Basic Model-Building
Concept
 Model Specification
 Model Building
 Model Diagnosis
 Computing the
Regression Equation
 The Coefficient of the
Determination
 Is the Model Significant?
 Are the Individual
Variables Significant?
 Is the Stranded Deviation
of the Regression Model
too Large?
 Is multi-collinearity a
Problem?
 Confidence Interval
Estimation for
Regression Coefficient
 Using Qualitative
Independent Variables
 Possible Improvements to
the first city Appraisal
Model
CH:14
Page:
621 - 664
David F.
Groebner
Lecture and
discussion
regarding
Business,
economics &
finance
applications
Assignment # 5
To let to know students how to
recognize regression analysis
applications purposes of description
and prediction, calculate and interpret
confidence intervals for the regression
analysis, recognize some potential
problems if regression analysis is used
incorrectly.
Quiz # 6
CH:15
Page:
679 - 743
David F.
Groebner
Lecture and
discussion
regarding
Business,
economics &
finance
applications
This topic is aimed to let the
students understand the general
concepts behind model building
using multiple regression analysis,
apply multiple regression analysis
to business decision-making
situations, analyze the computer
output for a multiple regression
model and interpret the regression
results.
________________________________________________________________________School of Business
& Economics
QM-210
University of Management and Technology
29-30
Multiple Regression Analysis
and Model Building:
 Working with
Nonlinear Relationships
 Analyzing Interaction
Effects
 Stepwise Regression
 Forward Selection
 Backward Elimination
 Standard Stepwise
Regression
 Best subset Regression
 Determining the
Aptness of the Model
 Analysis of Residuals
 Checking for the
Linearity
 Do the Residuals have
Equal Variances at all
level of Each x Variables
 Are the Residuals
Independent?
 Checking for Normally
Distributed Error Terms
 Corrective Actions
CH:15
Page:
679 - 743
David F.
Groebner
Lecture and
discussion
regarding
Business,
economics &
finance
applications
This topic is intends to let the
students know to incorporate
qualitative variables into a
regression model by using dummy
variables, to apply regression
analysis to situations where the
relationship between independent
variable(s) and dependent variable
is nonlinear, understand the uses of
stepwise regression.
________________________________________________________________________School of Business
& Economics
QM-210
University of Management and Technology