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AP STATISTICS—COURSE SYLLABUS 2015-2016 Instructor: Mr. Bill Blakely Phone: CELL:(269) 569-6530 SCHOOL: (269) 488-5020, ext. 1669 (voice mail only) E-mail: bblakely@gulllakecs.org Course Description: Statistics is the study of data. This course is designed to prepare students for the AP Statistics test offered in May of each year and to earn college credit. The goal of the course is to develop an understanding and appreciation of statistics, which is a rich and diverse topic. Students will be expected to complete in class investigations along with out of class investigations to aid in the learning process. Students will also be able to discuss topics such as methodology and inferences both individually and in small groups [C4]. The following topics will be covered in AP Statistics: 1) 2) 3) 4) Exploratory analysis by describing patterns and departures from patterns Planning and conducting a study Anticipating patterns using probability and simulation Statistical inference Content Test Following Each Section I. Exploring Data: Describing patterns and departures from patterns. [C2a] Time Frame 72 minutes per block Weight of AP exam Blocks for topics (20%–30%) 51 blocks Resources Resource/Chapter/Pages Exploratory analysis of data makes use of graphical and numerical techniques to study patterns and departures from patterns. Emphasis should be placed on interpreting information from graphical and numerical displays and summaries. A. Constructing and interpreting graphical displays of distributions of univariate data (dotplot, stemplot, histogram, cumulative frequency plot) 1. Center and spread 2. Clusters and gaps 3. Outliers and other unusual features 4. Shape 9 blocks 1. Bock—Ch. 4, Pg. 50,62-63 Triola—Ch. 2, Pg. 42 2. Bock—Ch. 4, Pg. 52,62-63 Triola—Ch. 2, Pg. 61 3. Bock—Ch. 4, Pg. 51-52,62-63 Triola—Ch. 2, Pg. 42 4. Bock—Ch. 4, Pg. 51-52,62-63 Triola—Ch. 3, Pg. 85-86 B. 13 blocks 1. Bock—Ch. 5, Pg. 74,87-89 Triola—Ch. 3, Pg. 77-79 2. Bock—Ch. 5, Pg. 75-76,83,87-89 Triola—Ch. 3, Pg. 92-98 Summarizing distributions of univariate data 1. Measuring center: median, mean 2. Measuring spread: range, interquartile range, standard deviation 3. Measuring position: quartiles, percentiles, standardized scores (z-scores) 4. Using boxplots 5. The effect of changing units on summary measures C. Comparing distributions of univariate data (dotplots, back-to-back stemplots, parallel boxplots) 1. Comparing center and spread: within group, between group variation 2. Comparing clusters and gaps 3. Comparing outliers and other unusual features 4. Comparing shapes 3. Bock—Ch. 5, Pg. 75-76,103-104,87-89 Triola—Ch. 3, Pg. 110-113 4. Bock—Ch. 5, Pg. 77,87-89 Triola—Ch. 3, Pg. 120-124 5. Bock—Ch. 5, Pg. 87-89 8 blocks D. Exploring bivariate data 1. Analyzing patterns in scatterplots 2. Correlation and linearity 3. Least-squares regression line 4. Residual plots, outliers and influential points 5. Transformations to achieve linearity: logarithmic and power transformations 10 blocks E. Exploring categorical data 1. Frequency tables and bar charts 2. Marginal and joint frequencies for twoway tables 3. Conditional relative frequencies and association 4. Comparing distributions using bar Charts 8 blocks F. AP Practice Test problems over each section and complete Unit I. Also, problems will be given throughout the unit on a daily or semi-daily basis. II. Sampling and Experimentation: Planning and conducting a study. [C2b] 3 blocks 1. Bock—Ch. 4, Pg. 49,62-63 Bock—Ch. 10, Pg. 224-225,244 Triola—Ch. 2, Pg. 68 2. Bock—Ch. 4, Pg. 49,50,62-63 Triola—Ch. 3, Pg. 127 3. Bock—Ch. 9, Pg. 203-207,212 Triola—Ch. 3, Pg. 122,124 4. Bock—Ch. 4, Pg. 50,62-63 Triola—Ch. 3, Pg. 124-125 1. Bock—Ch. 7, Pg. 142-146,158-160 Triola—Ch. 10, Pg. 516,519 2. Bock—Ch. 7, Pg. 142-146,158-160 Triola—Ch. 10, Pg. 518-524 3. Bock—Ch. 8, Pg. 170-172,186-188 Triola—Ch. 10, Pg. 541-547 4. Bock—Ch. 8, Pg. 169,186 Bock—Ch. 9, Pg. 198-199,211-213 Triola—Ch. 10, Pg. 549-552 5. Bock—Ch. 4, Pg. 58-59,62-63 Triola—Ch. 10, Pg. 576-578 1. Bock—Ch. 3, Pg. 21-23,34-35 Triola—Ch. 2, Pg. 42-48 2. Bock—Ch. 3, Pg. 24-25,34-35 Triola—Ch. 4, Pg. 151-153 3. Bock—Ch. 3, Pg. 22-23,26-28,34-35 Bock—Ch. 4, Pg. 47,62-63 Triola—Ch. 4, Pg. 169-171 4. Bock—Ch. 3, Pg. 23,34-35 Bock—Ch. 4, Pg. 47,62-63 Triola—Ch. 1, Pg. 13-14 Triola—Ch. 2, Pg. 52 Practice AP problems from 1997, 2002 and 2007 released tests. (10%–15%) 41 blocks Data must be collected according to a well-developed plan if valid information on a conjecture is to be obtained. This plan includes clarifying the question and deciding upon a method of data collection and analysis. A. Overview of methods of data collection 1. Census 2. Sample survey 3. Experiment 4. Observational study 10 blocks 1. Bock—Ch. 12, Pg. 274-275,287 Triola—Ch. 2, Pg. 45 2. Bock—Ch. 12, Pg. 270-292 Triola—Ch. 1, Pg. 28 3. Bock—Ch. 13, Pg. 294,310-313 Triola—Ch. 1, Pg. 21-31 4. Bock—Ch. 13, Pg. 293-294,310-313 Triola—Ch. 1, Pg. 21,22 B. Planning and conducting surveys 1. Characteristics of a well-designed and well-conducted survey 2. Populations, samples and random selection 3. Sources of bias in sampling and surveys 4. Sampling methods, including simple random sampling, stratified random sample and cluster sampling C. Planning and conducting experiments 1. Characteristics of a well-designed and well-conducted experiment 2. Treatments, control group experimental units, random assignments and replication 3. Sources of bias and confounding, including placebo effect and blinding 4. Completely randomized design 5. Randomized block design, including matched pairs design D. Generalizability of results and types of conclusions that can be drawn from observational studies, experiments and surveys E. AP Practice Test problems over each section and complete Unit II. Also, problems will be given throughout the unit on a daily or semi-daily basis. III. Anticipating Patterns: Exploring random phenomena using probability and simulation. [C2c] 12 blocks 1. Bock—Ch. 12, Pg. 279-281,286-287 Triola—Ch. 1, Pg. 11-12 2. Bock—Ch. 12, Pg. 275-276,286-287 Triola—Ch. 1, Pg. 26-27 3. Bock—Ch. 12, Pg. 282-287 Triola—Ch. 1, Pg. 11-17,30 4. Bock—Ch. 12, Pg. 276-279 Triola—Ch. 1, Pg. 27-29 13 blocks 1. Bock—Ch. 13, Pg. 293-294,310-313 Triola—Ch. 1, Pg. 21 2. Bock—Ch. 13, Pg. 294-297,310-313 Triola—Ch. 1, Pg. 23-26 3. Bock—Ch. 13, Pg. 302-304,307,310313 Triola—Ch. 1, Pg. 23-24 4. Bock—Ch. 13, Pg. 298-299,310-313 Triola—Ch. 1, Pg. 25 5. Bock—Ch. 13, Pg. 304-306,310-313 Triola—Ch. 1, Pg. 24 3 blocks Bock—Ch. 12, Pg. 279,280,299-300,310313 Triola—Ch. 1, Pg. 33-35 Practice AP problems from 1997, 2002 and 2007 released tests. 3 blocks (20%–30%) 45 Blocks Probability is the tool used for anticipating what the distribution of data should look like under a given model. A. B. C. Probability 1. Interpreting probability, including longrun relative frequency interpretation 2. “Law of Large Numbers” concept 3. Addition rule, multiplication rule, conditional probability and independence 4. Discrete random variables and their probability distributions, including binomial and geometric 5. Simulation of random behavior and probability distributions 6. Mean (expected value) and standard deviation of a random variable, and linear transformation of a random variable Combining independent random variables 1. Notion of independence versus dependence 2. Mean and standard deviation for sums and differences of independent random variables The normal distribution 1. Properties of the normal distribution 12 Blocks 1. Bock—Ch. 15, Pg. 349,361-362 Triola—Ch. 4, Pg. 162 2. Bock—Ch. 14, Pg. 328-329,337-339 Triola—Ch. 4, Pg. 140-141 3. Bock—Ch. 15, Pg. 346-353,361-362 Triola—Ch. 4, Pg. 151-153,159-162 4. Bock—Ch. 17, Pg. 387-393,396-397 Triola—Ch. 5, Pg. 213-215,224 5. Bock—Ch. 16, Pg. 369,380-381 Triola—Ch. 4, Pg. 174-177 6. Bock—Ch. 16, Pg. 370-372,380-381 Triola—Ch. 5, Pg. 208-209,225-226 9 Blocks 1. Bock—Ch. 22, Pg. 495-497,506-507 Triola—Ch. 4, Pg. 162 2. Bock—Ch. 22, Pg. 498-507 Triola—Ch. 5, Pg. 204-205 10 Blocks 1. Bock—Ch. 6, Pg. 106-109,121-122 Triola—Ch. 6, Pg. 246-250 2. 3. D. Using tables of the normal distribution The normal distribution as a model for Measurements Sampling distributions 1. Sampling distribution of a sample proportion 2. Sampling distribution of a sample mean 3. Central Limit Theorem 4. Sampling distribution of a difference between two independent sample proportions 5. Sampling distribution of a difference between two independent sample means 6. Simulation of sampling distributions 7. t-distribution 8. Chi-square distribution E. AP Practice Test problems over each section and complete Unit III. Also problems will be given throughout the unit on a daily or semi-daily basis. IV. Statistical Inference: Estimating population parameters and testing hypotheses. [C2d] 2. Bock—Ch. 6, Pg. 113-114,121-122 Triola—Ch. 6, Pg. 250-253 3. Bock—Ch. 6, Pg. 115-117,121-122 Triola—Ch. 6, Pg. 263-265 11 Blocks 3 Block 1. Bock—Ch. 18, Pg. 413-416,427-428 Triola—Ch. 6, Pg. 270-273 2. Bock—Ch. 18, Pg. 417-418,427-428 Bock—Ch. 23, Pg. 523-524,538-540 Triola—Ch. 6, Pg. 274-275 3. Bock—Ch. 18, Pg. 419,427-428 Triola—Ch. 6, Pg. 280-281 4. Bock—Ch. 18, Pg. 417-418,427-428 Triola—Ch. 13, Pg. 695-699 5. Bock—Ch. 18, Pg. 417-418,427-428 6. Bock—Ch. 18, Pg. 425-428 7. Bock—Ch. 23, Pg. 522,538-540 Triola—Ch. 7, Pg. 350-351 8. Bock—Ch. 26, Pg. 608,625-627 Triola—Ch. 7, Pg. 364 Practice AP problems from 1997, 2002 and 2007 released tests (30%–40%) 28 Blocks Statistical inference guides the selection of appropriate models A. Estimation (point estimators and confidence intervals) 1. Estimating population parameters and margins of error 2. Properties of point estimators, including unbiasedness and variability 3. Logic of confidence intervals, meaning of confidence level and confidence intervals, and properties of confidence intervals 4. Large sample confidence interval for a proportion 5. Large sample confidence interval for a difference between two proportions 6. Confidence interval for a mean 7. Confidence interval for a difference 12 Blocks 1. Bock—Ch. 19, Pg. 433-436,444-445 Triola—Ch. 7, Pg. 323-326 2. Bock—Ch. 19, Pg. 436-437,444-445 Triola—Ch. 7, Pg. 321-322 3. Bock—Ch. 19, Pg. 437-438,444-445 Triola—Ch. 7, Pg. 326-331 4. Bock—Ch. 19, Pg. 432-450 Triola—Ch. 7, Pg. 326-327 5. Bock—Ch. 25, Pg. 580-582,584-585 Triola—Ch. 9, Pg. 458 6. Bock—Ch. 27, Pg. 653,656 Triola—Ch. 7, Pg. 340-342,350-352 7. Bock—Ch. 24, Pg. 559,563-565,580-582 Triola—Ch. 9, Pg. 469-477 8. Bock—Ch. 27, Pg. 656 Triola—Ch. 10, Pg. 542 13 Blocks 1. Bock—Ch. 20, Pg. 451-468 Bock—Ch. 21, Pg. 482-483,48-490 Triola—Ch. 8, Pg. 387-394,398-400 2. Bock—Ch. 21, Pg. 474-479,488-490 Triola—Ch. 8, Pg. 408-409 3. Bock—Ch. 22, Pg. 495-507 Triola—Ch. 9, Pg. 456-458 4. Bock—Ch. 23, Pg. 532-535,538-540 Triola—Ch. 8, Pg. 418-430 5. Bock—Ch. 24, Pg. 548-561,563-565 between two means (unpaired and paired) 8. B. Confidence interval for the slope of a least-squares regression line Tests of significance 1. Logic of significance testing, null and alternative hypotheses; p-values; one- and two-sided tests; concepts of Type I and Type II errors; concept of power 2. Large sample test for a proportion 3. Large sample test for a difference between two proportions 4. Test for a mean 5. Test for a difference between two means (unpaired and paired) 6. Chi-square test for goodness of fit, homogeneity of proportions, and independence (one- and two-way tables) 7. Test for the slope of a least-squares regression line C. AP Practice Test problems over each section and complete Unit IV. Also, problems will be given throughout the unit on a daily or semi-daily basis. Triola—Ch. 9, Pg. 475-477 6. Bock—Ch. 26, Pg. 607-612,625-627 Triola—Ch. 8, Pg. 436-440 7. Bock—Ch. 27, Pg. 638-643,655-657 Triola—Ch. 10, Pg. 544-551 3 Blocks Practice AP problems from 1997, 2002 and 2007 released tests. Course Objectives: 1) 2) 3) 5) Students will understand the AP Statistics topics. Students will take the Statistics AP test with confidence. Students will pass the AP test with at least a 3 Students will be prepared for a college curriculum of Statistics. Grading Scale: 93-100 90-92 87-89 A AB+ 83-86 80-82 77-79 B BC+ 73-76 70-72 67-69 C CD+ 63-66 60-62 0-59 D DE Grading Policy: To determine a final letter grade, the following weighted grade system will be used: Test/Quizzes/Projects 80% Homework/Class work 20% The Trimester grade will be composed of the marking period grade worth 80%, and a final exam worth 20%. A student must receive at least a 60% for his/her trimester grade to receive credit in this course. Grading Policy (continued): *Evidence of cheating will result in a zero for the entire project/quiz/test. The following constitute cheating: Copying out of the back of the book Copying the work of another person Allowing someone to copy your work Anything else that I think is dishonest Test and Quizzes: One to three quizzes per unit will be given. A comprehensive test will be given at the end of each unit. Each test will be weighted the same. There will be test and quizzes where a calculator will not be allowed. Practice AP Quizzes: There will be a “practice AP test” related to the topics that have been taught in class. These will count as a homework assignment but will not be dropped. Do not fret over these because they will have little weight in the grades and will be graded on the AP scale (i.e., 1 – 5 point scale) Homework and Quizzes: Homework will be turned in every Friday. In addition, there will be homework checks given on other days each week. There will be NO makeup of missed work due to an unexcused absence or late assignment. I will drop your lowest homework check each trimester. - Mathematical Tasks: In alignment with the Common Core Curriculum, students will be asked to complete mathematical tasks. They will be assessed in different ways, depending on the nature of the task. AP STATISTICS SOURCES Annenberg/CPB. (1989) Against All Odds: Inside Statistics, 26 thirty minutes. Washington, D.C.: The Annenberg/CPB Collection. Videocassettes. (800)LEARNER. www.learner.org Bock, Velleman, De Veaux (2007). Stats Modeling The World. Boston: Pearson Education Bock, Velleman, De Veaux (2007). AP* Statistics Test Prep Series for Stats: Modeling the World. Boston: Pearson Education Bock, Velleman, De Veaux (2007). Teacher’s Solutions Manual for Stats: Modeling the World. Boston: Pearson Education Errthum, Mastromatteo, O’Connor, Scheaffer (1999). Exploring Projects. New York: Dale Seymour Publications Hopfensperger, Kranendonk, Scheaffer (1999). Probability Through Data. New York: Dale Seymour Publications Minitab 16. Loaded on Gull Lake High School Server. State College, PA. Mulekar (2012). Cracking the AP Statistics Exam. New York: The Princeton Review Sternstein (2000). Barron’s How To Prepare For The AP Statistics Exam. New York: Barron’s Educational Services Texas Instruments TI-83, TI-84 and TI-nspire graphing calculators [C5] The College Board. www.apcentral.collegeboard.com The College Board (1998). Released Exam AP Statistics. New York: College Entrance Examination Board and Educational Testing Service The College Board (2002). Statistics Released Exam. New York: College Entrance Examination Board and Educational Testing Service The College Board (2008). 2007 AP Statistics Released Exam. New York: College Entrance Examination Board and Educational Testing Service Triola (2006). Elementary Statistics. Boston: Pearson Education YOUR RESPONSIBILITIES AND EXPECTATIONS 1) 2) 3) 4) Concentrate and give your best effort. Attend class. Complete your work on time. Read each lesson Ask for help Pet Peeves -slurping of a straw -be distracted or cause others to be distracted with your technology -line up to leave class -listening to people eating -show disrespect by talking at inappropriate times -lie 5) Wear Proper Clothing AP STATISTICS PROJECT [(C2a,b,c,d)] [(C3)] [(C4)] [(C5)] The project listed below will meet the requirement for the course. You may also select a project from an outside source including, but not limited to, textbooks authored by Bock, Triola or Yates. You may also select a project from the Errthum project book. PROJECT: Students will design and conduct an experiment to investigate the effects of response bias in surveys. They may choose the topic for their surveys, but they must design their experiment so that it can answer at least one of the following questions: Can the wording of the question create response bias? Can voluntary response create response bias? Can convenience sampling create response bias? Can subjects respond differently, simply because they are part of an experiment (see Hawthorne effect)? Do the characteristics of the interviewer create response bias (see Rosenthall effect)? Does anonymity change the responses to sensitive questions? PROPOSAL: The proposal should: Describe the topic and state which type of bias is being investigated Describe how to obtain subjects (minimum sample size is 50). Please contact me before contacting Ms. Quartermaine. Describe what questions will be and how they will be asked, including how to incorporate direct control, blocking and randomization. WRITTEN REPORT: The written report should include a title in the form of a question and the following sections (clearly labeled). Introduction: What form of response bias was investigated? Why was the topic chosen for the survey? Methodology: Describe how the experiment was conducted and justify why the design was effective. This will be very similar to the proposal section above. Results: Present the data in both tables and graphs in such a way that conclusions can be easily made. Make sure to label the graphs/tables clearly and consistently. These graphs can be shown in either EXCEL or MINITAB. Conclusions: What conclusions can be drawn from the experiment? Be specific. Were any problems encountered during the project? What could be done different if the experiment were to be repeated? What was learned from the project? The original proposal ORAL PRESENTATION: Members will participate equally. This project may be completed either individually or in groups of up to 3 members. Calculator Policy [C5] Each student is expected to bring to the exam a graphing calculator with statistical capabilities. The computational capabilities should include standard statistical univariate and bivariate summaries, through linear regression. The graphical capabilities should include common univariate and bivariate displays such as histograms, boxplots, and scatterplots. You can bring two calculators to the exam. The calculator memory will not be cleared but you may only use the memory to store programs, not notes. For the exam, you're not allowed to access any information in your graphing calculators or elsewhere if it's not directly related to upgrading the statistical functionality of older graphing calculators to make them comparable to statistical features found on newer models. The only acceptable upgrades are those that improve the computational functionalities and/or graphical functionalities for data you key into the calculator while taking the examination. Unacceptable enhancements include, but aren't limited to, keying or scanning text or response templates into the calculator. During the exam, you can't use minicomputers, pocket organizers, electronic writing pads, or calculators with QWERTY (i.e., typewriter) keyboards. The list of calculators approved for AP Calculus can also be used for the AP Statistics Exam. The Preferred Calculator recommended by the instructor of this class is TI-84, TI-89, TI n-spire, n-spire CAS or n-spire CX. The AP Examination DATE: Thursday, May 12, 2016 at 12:00 PM (noon) COST: $92, with $20 non-refundable registration fee due in February The examination is 3 hours in length. It is divided into two sections, each taking 90 minutes. Section I is a multiple-choice section that tests proficiency in wide variety of topics. It contains 40 questions and is 90 minutes long. Multiple-choice scores are based on the number of questions answered correctly. Points are not deducted for incorrect answers, and no points are awarded for unanswered questions. Because no points are deducted for incorrect answers, students are encouraged to answer all multiple-choice questions. Section II is a free-response section requiring the students to demonstrate the ability to solve problems involving a more extended chain of reasoning within 90 minutes. In the free-response section of the AP Statistics Exam, students are asked to answer five questions and complete an investigative task. Each question is designed to be answered in approximately 12 minutes. The longer investigative task is designed to be answered in approximately 30 minutes. Formula pages and tables are given to you to use the entire tests as well as your calculator may be used the entire test.