Download Telco Conference Slides

Survey
yes no Was this document useful for you?
   Thank you for your participation!

* Your assessment is very important for improving the work of artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project

Document related concepts

Development economics wikipedia, lookup

Transcript
“Where the rubber hits the road”
A presentation prepared for the 2030 Communications Vision Project
Warwick Davis
February 2015
● Overview
● International comparisons
● Access
● Price
● Quality
● Outcomes
● Closing remarks
2
Frontier Economics
High quality telecoms infrastructure at competitive prices is
fundamental to the growth of the digital economy…
Mobility, cloud computing, social networking, sensor-nets
and big data analytics are some of the most important
trends in the digital economy today. Collectively these
trends are making possible the future of “smart everything”
(i.e. grids, homes, business processes, energy,
healthcare, transport and government), as well as
empowering businesses, consumers and society at large.
These new and future applications rely on the widespread
availability of fixed and wireless broadband networks
to meet the growing demands of economies and societies
with a concomitant rise in the number of devices
connected over the Internet.
OECD, Measuring the Digital
Economy: A New
Perspective, 2014
3
…so, what do we know about Australia?
Frontier Economics
What dimensions should/can we compare?
Network
Fixed
Services
Measures
Price
Price baskets
Affordability
Quantity
Availability
Penetration
Quality
Speed
Other quality
(e.g. latency)
Voice
Consumer
wants
Mobile
Service
dimensions
Broadband
Usage
Outcomes?
4
Frontier Economics
Comparisons are hard, but necessary...
Are we
standing
still?
Data is
limited
● Moving forward can be standing still, so we must compare progress
with that of other countries.
● We consider rankings as well as absolute measures.
● Comparisons can be fraught. Easy to measure things that are not that
useful. Data sets are often poor / untimely, and definitions are critical.
● There is not much breakdown between user types.
● Australia has some disadvantages (Large land mass, small
population, relatively low urban density).
Compare
like-with-like
● But some advantages (our skilled workforce).
● As a result, it’s helpful to compare Australia to countries with similar
endowments (Sweden, NZ and Canada).
...the following slides take up this challenge
5
Frontier Economics
● Overview
● International Benchmarks
● Quantity
● Price
● Quality
● Outcomes
● Closing remarks
6
Frontier Economics
Quantity – availability/access
● Availability of (voice and broadband) services is of significant interest
● But it turns out to be hard to compare systematically across countries...
•Approximately 9.9 million premises (91 per cent) have
access to ADSL.
•Approximately 3.1 million premises (28 per cent) have
access to a high speed broadband platform (FTTP, FFTN,
HFC or FW).
•Approximately 8.8 million premises (81 per cent) have
access to 3G mobile broadband services and about 6.4
million premises (59 per cent) have access to 4G
services.
7
Dept. Of
Communications,
Broadband
Availability and
Quality Report,
December 2013
Frontier Economics
Quantity - penetration
Fixed line voice has
long been ubiquitous
(+95%), but Australia
is falling down the
ranks in broadband
penetration (13th to
21st)...
Source: OECD Broadband Portal
8
Frontier Economics
Quantity - penetration
Overall rates show that there is not much variation within the rankings....
...but peer
comparison suggests
this may not be quite
as concerning as it
appears
Source: OECD Broadband Portal
.... Fixed penetration is just below the OECD average
9
Frontier Economics
Quantity - usage
Low usage of data for
those that have
broadband – likely
linked to quality and
price
OFCOM - The International Communications Market
2014
10
Frontier Economics
Quantity
A different story in mobile?
Rank highly in mobile
penetration
Source: OECD Broadband Portal
.... Wireless penetration rates are among the highest in the world
11
Frontier Economics
Quantity
Australia is way above the OECD average for wireless penetration
Australia has low
fixed, high mobile.
In other OECD
countries there is a
positive correlation...
Source: OECD Broadband Portal
.
12
Frontier Economics
Quantity
Australians have been rushing to have dedicated mobile broadband connections...
“Nearly 20% of mobile
connections are dedicated
broadband data”
These data are also
suggestive of fixedmobile substitution...
Source – OFCOM - The International Communications Market 2014
13
Frontier Economics
Quantity
We have been more successful in getting fixed connections to some
important areas, like schools…
Source: OECD
14
Frontier Economics
● Overview
● International Benchmarks
● Access
● Price
● Quality
● Outcomes
● Closing remarks
15
Frontier Economics
1st rank - Cheapest
Price
A comparison of “baskets” of fixed line calls
33rd rank (for business) – Most
expensive
34th rank (for residential) – Most
expensive
All prices are in PPP
terms, which reflect
international
differences in
purchasing power.
Fixed
voice is
expensive
Including in relation to
peers like Canada
16
Source: OECD, Sept 2012
There are 33 countries in
the Business data
sample.
Frontier Economics
1st rank - Cheapest
Price
34th rank – Most expensive
A comparison of “baskets” of fixed broadband
Fixed
broadband
is also
expensive
Does not fare as badly in
comparison to peers, like
Sweden
17
Source: OECD, Sept 2012
There are 34
countries in the
data sample unless
otherwise stated
Frontier Economics
Price – summary on fixed
Across (V)oice
and
(B)roadband,
we are some
way behind
the average
Source: OECD
18
Frontier Economics
1st rank - Cheapest
Price
34th rank – Most expensive
A comparison of “baskets” of mobile voice + data prices
Mobile prices
fare
comparatively
much better…
Source: OECD
19
Frontier Economics
1st rank - Cheapest
Price
34th rank – Most expensive
A comparison of “baskets” of mobile broadband prices
.…including
mobile
broadband
Source: OECD
20
Frontier Economics
● Overview
● International Benchmarks
● Access
● Price
● Quality
● Outcomes
● Closing remarks
21
Frontier Economics
Quality
Fixed broadband quality is behind the pack…
Country
Average
connection
speed Mbps
Global Rank
Country
Average Peak
Connection
Speed Mbps
Global Rank
Australia
6.9
44
Australia
36
44
New Zealand
7
42
New Zealand
32
50
Sweden
14.1
5
Sweden
54
12
Canada
10.3
21
Canada
43.7
22
Global Avg
4.5
-
Global Avg
24.8
-
South Korea
25.3
1
Hong Kong
84.6
1
Country
High Broadband
connectivity
>10Mbps
Global Rank
Australia
14%
40
New Zealand
14%
42
Sweden
44%
10
Canada
33%
21
Global Avg
23%
-
South Korea
81%
1
Clearly behind
many non-OECD
countries
Source: Akamai – State of the internet – Q3 2014
22
Frontier Economics
Quality
Mobile broadband quality is less cause for concern..
Speedy
● According to Ofcom, 20% of total mobile data connections were
4G in 2013 (Source: OFCOM)
Country
Avg. Mbps
Peak Mbps
% Above 4Mbps
Australia
3.9
68.9
25%
New Zealand
3.3
21
32%
Sweden
7.3
36.9
94%
Canada
7.9
28.7
71%
Source: Akamai – State of the internet – Q3 2014
23
Frontier Economics
● Overview
● International Benchmarks
● Access
● Price
● Quality
● Outcomes
● Closing remarks
24
Frontier Economics
Outcome
Telecoms revenue as a percentage of GDP is near the OECD average
We spend a
bit more than
comparators
Source: OECD iLibrary
25
Frontier Economics
Outcome
Telecoms employment is higher than OECD average
Telecoms
employment
is twice
OECD
average
Source: OECD iLibrary
26
Frontier Economics
Outcome
ICT related patents
We are not at
the forefront of
ICT, and more
of our energy
is going into
other things
Source: OECD – Measuring the digital economy
27
Frontier Economics
Outcome
ICT service exports
…and our
share of
service
exports is
dropping
Source: OECD – Measuring the digital economy
28
Frontier Economics
● Overview
● International Benchmarks
● Access
● Price
● Quality
● Outcomes
● Closing remarks
29
Frontier Economics
Closing remarks
Relatively, Australia fares
poorly in fixed line
comparisons but well in
mobile comparisons
The causes of this are
probably complex, but
relative pricing may be a
factor
30
Reinforces the need to “get the
NBN right”
How do we make sure we build
what (all kinds of) consumers
want, and price it correctly?
Frontier Economics
Frontier Economics Pty Ltd in Australia is a member of the Frontier Economics network, which consists of separate companies
based in Australia (Brisbane, Melbourne & Sydney) and Europe (Brussels, Cologne, London and Madrid). The companies are
independently owned, and legal commitments entered into by any one company do not impose any obligations on other
companies in the network. All views expressed in this document are the views of Frontier Economics Pty Ltd.
31
Frontier Economics
FRONTIER ECONOMICS PTY. LTD.
MELBOURNE | SYDNEY
Frontier Economics Pty Ltd, 395 Collins Street, Melbourne, Vic 3000
Tel. +61 (0)3 9620 4488 Fax. +61 (0)3 9620 4499 www.frontier-economics.com
32
Frontier Economics