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Monetary Policy in the Crisis 1. Recent History of Policy and Theory – Policy – Theory 2. Policy Response to the Crisis – Conventional Policy – Conventional Unconventional Policy – Unconventional unconventional Policy 3. The Future of Monetary Policy – Exit – Will IT Survive? – The International Dimension Important abbreviations ABCP Asset-Backed Commercial Paper APF Asset Purchase Facility APP Asset Purchase Program BOE Bank of England BOJ Bank of Japan CBPP covered bond purchase program CFI corporate finance instruments CPFF Commercial Paper Funding Facility ECB European Central Bank ETFs exchange-traded funds FOMC Federal Open Market Committee FRFA fixed-rate, full-allotment FROs fixed-rate operations GDP gross domestic product GSE government-sponsored enterprise GSFF Growth-Supporting Funding Facility JGBs Japanese government bonds J-REITs Jap. real estate investment trusts LSAP large-scale asset purchase LTROs longer-term refinancing operations MBS mortgage-backed securities MMMF money market mutual fund MROs main refinancing operations OIS overnight indexed swap OMTs outright monetary transactions QE quantitative easing SBLF Stimulating Bank Lending Facility SFSOs special-funds-supplying operations SMP Securities Markets Programme ZIRP zero interest rate policy Source: Fawley & Neely, Four Stories of Quantitative Easing, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 2013, 95(1), pp. 51-88. Policy interest rates 6 United States 5 Euro area 6 5 Japan 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 2004 2004 2005 2006 2006 2007 2008 2008 2009 2010 2010 2011 2012 2012 0 Source : OECD Economic Outlook Database. Nominal lending rates 8 8 United States 7 7 Euro area Japan 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 Q103 Q104 Q105 Q106 Q107 Q108 Q109 Q110 Q111 Q112 Source : ECB datawarehouse; U.S Federal Reserve and Datastream. Real lending rates 5 5 United States Euro area 4 4 Japan 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 Q103 Q104 Q105 Q106 Q107 Q108 Q109 Q110 Q111 Q112 Source : ECB datawarehouse; U.S Federal Reserve and Datastream; OECD Economic Outlook and OECD calculations. History of Quantitave Easing (Fawley and Neely, 2013) http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/13/01/Fawley.pdf 2008 Oct 7 Oct 15 Nov 25 Dec 2 FED creates Commercial Paper Lending Facility ECB offers Fixed-Rate Full Allocation repos FED buys $ 600 billion in MBS and GSE (100) BOJ announces unlimited lending to banks 2009 Jan 22 March 18 May 7 Dec 1 BOJ buys ¥ 3 trillion commercial paper FED buys $ 1.1 billion in various assets ECB buys € 60 billion covered bonds BOJ offers ¥ 10 trillion 3-month loans 2010 March 17 May 10 BOJ offers another ¥ 10 trillion 3-month loans ECB buys government debt an secondary market (SMP) Composition of Quantitave Easing (Fawley and Neely, 2013) end-2012 FED $ 1.5 trillion long-term government bonds $ 1.4 trillion mortgage-backed securities $ 0.2 trilion GSE debt ECB € 100 billion covered bonds € 220 billion government debt (SMP) BoJ ¥ 150 trillion Japan Government Bonds ¥ 3.2 trillion commercial paper ¥ 4.2 trillion corporate debt ¥ 2.1 trillion other Central bank assets (% of GDP) 90 90 United Sates Japan Euro area Switzerland 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source : ECB datawarehouse; U.S Federal Reserve and Datastream; OECD Economic Outlook and OECD calculations.