Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Challenge of the Knowledge Economy: Towards a Pragmatic Innovation Agenda Carl Dahlman Knowledge for Development Program March 16, 2004 Santiago, Chile ©Knowledge for Development, WBI Structure of Presentation 1. The Knowledge Revolution and Implications for Latin American Competitiveness 2. Objective of seminar: Towards a pragmatic innovation agenda ©Knowledge for Development, WBI 1. The Knowledge Revolution Ability to create, access and use knowledge is becoming fundamental determinant of global competitiveness Seven key elements of “Knowledge Revolution” Increased codification of knowledge and development of new technologies Closer links with science base/increased rate of innovation/shorter product life cycles Increased importance of education & up-skilling of labor force, and life-long learning Investment in Intangibles (R&D,education, software) greater than Investments in Fixed Capital in OECD ©Knowledge for Development, WBI The Knowledge Revolution -2 Greater value added now comes from investment in intangibles such as branding, marketing,distribution, information management Innovation and productivity increase more important in competitiveness & GDP growth Increased Globalization and Competition •Trade/GDP from 38% in 1990 to 57% in 2001 •Value added by TNCs 27% of global GDP Bottom Line: Constant Change and Competition Implies Need for Constant Restructuring and Upgrading ©Knowledge for Development, WBI GDP/Capita Growth: Korea vs Argentina ©Knowledge for Development, WBI Implications for Latin America With very few exceptions, Latin America’s growth performance has not been very strong over the past 20 years It is risking falling further behind because it is not successfully tapping into growing global knowledge or exploiting its potential Countries need to develop strategies to use existing and new knowledge to Improve performance in traditional sectors Exploit opportunities for leapfrogging Develop competitive new sectors Countries needs to Assess where they stand Develop concrete action plans ©Knowledge for Development, WBI % Shares of World GDP - Constant US$ (1960 - 2002) 40 High income: OECD ex. US & Japan 35 Sub-Saharan Africa 30 United States 25 High Income: Non-OECD (Black) 20 Japan Middle East & North Africa (Light Blue) South Asia Europe & Central Asia (Grey) 15 10 Latin American & Caribbean East Asia & Pacific 5 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 % 4 East Asia and LAC: Shares of World GDP (1980 - 2002) 3.5 EA NIEs 3 China 2.5 Brazi 2 Other LAC 1.5 Upcoming EA NIEs Mexico 1 0.5 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20 % East Asia and LAC: Shares of World Merchandise Exports (1980 – 2002) 10 EA NIEs 8 6 China Upcoming EA NIEs 4 Mexico 2 Other LAC Brazil 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2002 Selected Countries: Real GDP 2002 Average RGDP per capita Growth 1965-2002 (%) 8 Selected Countries: Real GDP 2002 (Bil of 1995 US$) China $1207 7 South Korea $680 6 Singapore $113 Hong Kong $173 5 4 Brazil $810 3 Finland $169 Chile $85 2 Mexico $375 1 Argentina $250 0 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 Real GDP per capita 2002 25,000 30,000 35,000 ©Knowledge for Development, WBI Selected Countries: GDP 2002 Selected Countries: GDP 2002 (Bil of International $) Average GDP per capita Growth 1990-2002 (%) 12 China $5732 10 8 South Korea $784 Singapore $97 Chile $149 6 Hong Kong $178 4 Mexico $879 2 Finland $134 Argentina $401 Brazil $1312 0 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 GDP per capita 2002 ©Knowledge for Development, WBI Benchmarking Countries KAM: 76 structural/qualitative variables to benchmark performance on 4 pillars Variables normalized from 0 (worst) to 10 (best) for 121 countries www.worldbank.org/kam Multiple modes offering wide range of graphic representations and functionalities (1995 - Most Recent, comparison options) Aggregate Knowledge Economy Index (KEI) – average of performance in 4 pillars: economic incentive and institutional regime, education, ICT and innovation Weighted and unweighted version – Innovation Variables ©Knowledge for Development, WBI ©Knowledge for Development, WBI LAC and the World: Knowledge Economy Index ©Knowledge for Development, WBI 2. Towards a Pragmatic Innovation Agenda What do we mean by innovation? The diffusion of a product, process, or practice which is new in a given context (not in absolute terms). Technological innovations often go hand in hand with organizational ones Innovation promotion often goes with enterprise upgrading Therefore distinguish two broad types of innovation Local improvements through adoption of existing foreign technology Development of technologies new to world ©Knowledge for Development, WBI Innovation in Developing Countries In developing countries the first type is the most relevant, the second is more rare, except for the most advanced developing countries Developing countries will get a bigger economic impact from raising average local practice to best world practice than from creation of their own new knowledge They will also get a bigger impact from raising average local practice to best local practice, therefore the tremendous importance of domestic diffusion Sources of Domestic Innovation Imports of capital goods, components, products or services Copying or reverse engineering of foreign products and services Products and services brought to and produced in country by foreign investors Technological efforts of domestic or foreign firms, not all of which is based on formal R&D Bias Towards Formal R&D Efforts Policy makers in developing countries tend to focus on formal R&D and on publicly funded research efforts They tend to focus on glamorous high technology sectors They tend to focus on industry, to a lesser extent on agriculture, and very little on services They also tend to focus on R&D inputs and outputs, not so much on entrepreneurship and management Challenges But, as noted earlier, focus of policymakers are not the most important elements of the innovation system in developing countries R&D not the main source of innovation High tech sectors are tiny part of developing economies Service sector is largest share of economic activity Successfully applying knowledge requires entrepreneurship, management, organizations,and also depends on economic and institutional regime Need a better conceptual framework and policy tool kit that differentiates across countries Provides made to measure policy advice and specific project design Differentiated Strategies Acquiring Creating Disseminating Catch-Up Most critical: -lots of knowledge in pubic domain -also large stock to be purchased Therefore need good global scanning and acquisition ability Less relevant or feasible, but still need R&D capability to acquire and adapt. Critical to focus limited R&D efforts on most relevant areas Very important: -extension services -technical information -metrology, standards, testing and quality control -specialized suppliers -growth of most efficient firms Countries Nearer Frontier or with Large Critical Need to continue tapping global knowledge: -FDI/licensing -Strategic alliances -foreign R&D to tap knowledge Refocus public efforts on commercially relevant research Get private sector to make major effort to create new knowledge Dissemination efforts continue to be critical But also need to take knowledge to production: -technology transfer -tech parks/spinoffs -cluster development National Innovation System Needs to include not just R&D institutions and universities, but most critically firms and other knowledge institutions(MSTQ, training, consulting) Needs to include attention to the broader economic incentive and institutional regime, education and skills, and ICT-hence our K4D framework Challenges to Developing Countries Finding advantageous ways to plug into and compete successfully in the global system Getting into global value chains Moving up these value chains Taking advantage of global knowledge to improve welfare Preventive health Agriculture Developing differentiated advantages Building on local resources Building on culture and other intangibles Strengthening non-traded services Getting rid of innovation myths About the innovation process: it is not a linear process from research to market About the source of innovation: key role of clients’ needs, suppliers’ ideas, etc About high tech: it is its use which matters (not its production); needs a technical culture About the innovator: it is not a single individual, but a group of people with complementary functions About the role of government: it is important (including in form of direct support) ©Knowledge for Development, WBI How innovation develops Not a linear process coming from research for going to the market, but a design centered project with ideas coming from multiple sources (clients, suppliers, etc); innovation does not derive from research, but it is the reverse (particularly in developing countries) Innovation is a project brought about by group of people (not a single individual): the inventor, the entrepreneur, the godfather, the gatekeeper (Roberts, MIT) An organic not a mechanistic view; innovation is like a flower that needs gardening ©Knowledge for Development, WBI Government Role – Gardening Innovation Watering (finance, support to innovation projects) Removing weeds (competition, deregulation) Nurturing soil (research, education, information) ©Knowledge for Development, WBI Initiating Innovation Policies: Key Actions To ignite interest show cases abroad (study tours). To build self confidence, show local success stories; key role of media (radio/TV) Understanding issues and potentials by soft actions (cluster building) Competitive funding to stimulate local/regional interest and investment Building national and cross national innovation champion networks; getting entrepreneurs and citizens campaigning for improvement of business/governance climates ©Knowledge for Development, WBI Developing national programs and institutions: main issues There are already many programs for many different purposes (SMEs, FDI, RD…) which have a crowding out effect Agencies: need to have multi function-ones, private sector-like management (Fundacion Chile); but usually state agencies are constrained by bureaucratic rules and tend to capture or defend territories Councils (model is ST policy councils of Finland): they exist in numerous countries but they are not working; problem of motivation ©Knowledge for Development, WBI National Priorities Priorities: build on strengths focused on use of available resources, generate income for further investment in education, research and key technology infrastructure, etc Climb up gradually the innovation system steps corresponding to development levels and related value chains ©Knowledge for Development, WBI Towards a pragmatic innovation agenda It is not about just a about high tech. Long-term agenda: Integration into global knowledge networks and value chains. Medium-term priority: promotion of inter-firm and interorganizational linkages horizontal linkages: cluster agenda vertical: supplier and buyer development university-industry linkages Short-term priority: Articulation of vibrant and vocal innovation community in the private sector ©Knowledge for Development, WBI Towards a pragmatic innovation agenda Learning Capabilities of firms Research and Technology Development Very rarely present, mostly large firms Design and Engineering Capabilities rarely present in SMEs Technician and Craft Skills and Capabilities Strong skills sometimes present, though key skills often absent or weak Basic Operating Skills and Capabilities In SMEs, often weak, with limited and irregular upgrading R&D TECNOLOGY UPGRADING REVERSE ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY ACQUISITION ASSIMILATION TECHNOLOGY USE AND OPERATION ©Knowledge for Development, WBI Responding to the challenges of the knowledge revolution To respond to the challenges of knowledge revolution , Latin America needs a dynamic innovation and enterprise upgrading system: a network of organizations to enhance firms’ capabilities Led by private demand and responsive to private sector needs; Characterized by strong academic-industry linkages; Inserted into international knowledge networks Providing support to technology entrepreneurs, both financial (early stage venture capital) and technical assistance; and Characterized by continuous evaluation and monitoring. Results of evaluation linked to financing of programs. ©Knowledge for Development, WBI Approaches to reform and enhanced national innovation and enterprise upgrading systems 1. Focus on knowledge entrepreneurship (high-tech start-ups and spin-offs, venture capital): Israel 2. Focus on innovation strategy of a developing country that has already made transtion to being a global innovator:Korea 3. Focus on a network of private sector-led national technology transfer organizations: Chile (Fundación Chile), Mexico, Russia. These three approaches are complementary and will be considered in this seminar. ©Knowledge for Development, WBI Annex ©Knowledge for Development, WBI ©Knowledge for Development, WBI Knowledge Economy Index (most recent) breakdown ©Knowledge for Development, WBI Knowledge Index (most recent) breakdown ©Knowledge for Development, WBI KEI data – most recent KI data - most recent ©Knowledge for Development, WBI Latin America Internet users per 10,000 people GDP grow th (%) 10 Computers per 1,000 persons Human Development Index Tariff & nontariff barriers 5 Telephones per 1,000 (mainlines + mobile) Rule of Law 0 Tertiary Enrollment Regulatory Quality Secondary Enrollment Researchers in R&D / million Patent applications granted by the USPTO / million Scientific and technical journal articles / million Adult literacy rate (% age 15 and above) Latin America 1995 Most Recent Data ©Knowledge for Development, WBI Argentina Internet users per 10,000 people GDP grow th (%) 10 Computers per 1,000 persons Human Development Index Tariff & nontariff barriers 5 Telephones per 1,000 (mainlines + mobile) Rule of Law 0 Tertiary Enrollment Regulatory Quality Secondary Enrollment Researchers in R&D / million Patent applications granted by the USPTO / million Scientific and technical journal articles / million Adult literacy rate (% age 15 and above) Argentina 1995 Most Recent Data ©Knowledge for Development, WBI Chile Internet users per 10,000 people GDP grow th (%) 10 Computers per 1,000 persons Human Development Index Tariff & nontariff barriers 5 Telephones per 1,000 (mainlines + mobile) Rule of Law 0 Tertiary Enrollment Regulatory Quality Secondary Enrollment Researchers in R&D / million Patent applications granted by the USPTO / million Scientific and technical journal articles / million Adult literacy rate (% age 15 and above) Chile 1995 Most Recent Data ©Knowledge for Development, WBI Mexico Internet users per 10,000 people GDP grow th (%) 10 Computers per 1,000 persons Human Development Index Tariff & nontariff barriers 5 Telephones per 1,000 (mainlines + mobile) Rule of Law 0 Tertiary Enrollment Regulatory Quality Secondary Enrollment Researchers in R&D / million Patent applications granted by the USPTO / million Scientific and technical journal articles / million Adult literacy rate (% age 15 and above) Mexico 1995 Most Recent Data ©Knowledge for Development, WBI Israel Internet users per 10,000 people GDP grow th (%) 10 Computers per 1,000 persons Human Development Index Tariff & nontariff barriers 5 Telephones per 1,000 (mainlines + mobile) Rule of Law 0 Tertiary Enrollment Regulatory Quality Secondary Enrollment Researchers in R&D / million Patent applications granted by the USPTO / million Scientific and technical journal articles / million Adult literacy rate (% age 15 and above) Israel 1995 Most Recent Data ©Knowledge for Development, WBI Korea Internet users per 10,000 people GDP grow th (%) 10 Computers per 1,000 persons Human Development Index Tariff & nontariff barriers 5 Telephones per 1,000 (mainlines + mobile) Rule of Law 0 Tertiary Enrollment Regulatory Quality Secondary Enrollment Researchers in R&D / million Patent applications granted by the USPTO / million Scientific and technical journal articles / million Adult literacy rate (% age 15 and above) Korea 1995 Most Recent Data ©Knowledge for Development, WBI Russia Internet users per 10,000 people GDP grow th (%) 10 Computers per 1,000 persons Human Development Index Tariff & nontariff barriers 5 Telephones per 1,000 (mainlines + mobile) Rule of Law 0 Tertiary Enrollment Regulatory Quality Secondary Enrollment Researchers in R&D / million Patent applications granted by the USPTO / million Scientific and technical journal articles / million Adult literacy rate (% age 15 and above) Russia 1995 Most Recent Data ©Knowledge for Development, WBI LAC: Performance Variables ©Knowledge for Development, WBI LAC: Economic Incentive Regime Variables ©Knowledge for Development, WBI LAC: Governance Variables ©Knowledge for Development, WBI LAC: Innovation Variables ©Knowledge for Development, WBI LAC: Education Variables ©Knowledge for Development, WBI LAC: ICT Variables ©Knowledge for Development, WBI Chile: Performance Variables ©Knowledge for Development, WBI Chile: Economic Regime Variables ©Knowledge for Development, WBI Chile: Governance Variables ©Knowledge for Development, WBI Chile: Innovation Variables ©Knowledge for Development, WBI Chile: Education Variables ©Knowledge for Development, WBI Chile: ICT Variables ©Knowledge for Development, WBI Global R&D Effort in Comparative Perspective ©Knowledge for Development, WBI R&D Expenditure, 1981-2000 ©Knowledge for Development, WBI Export Structure (1965-2000) Argentina China (1987-2000) 100 100 90 80 70 60 90 Manuf actures (% of merchandise exports) 70 Ores and metals (% of merchandise exports) 50 40 30 20 10 0 1987 Food (% of merchandise exports) 1990 1995 80 60 50 Fuel (% of merchandise exports) 40 Agricultural raw materials (% of merchandise exports) 20 30 10 0 1965 2000 1975 1985 Hong Kong 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1965 2000 Brazil Food (% of merchandise exports) 100 90 Manuf actures (% of merchandise exports) 80 Ores and metals (% of merchandise exports) 60 Fuel (% of merchandise exports) 40 A gricultural raw materials (% of merchandise exports) 70 50 30 20 10 1975 1985 1995 0 1965 2000 1975 1985 1995 2000 Chile Korea 100 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Food (% of merchandise exports) 90 Manuf actures (% of merchandise exports) 70 Ores and metals (% of merchandise exports) 50 Fuel (% of merchandise exports) 30 Agricultural raw materials (% of merchandise exports) 10 0 1965 1995 1975 1985 1995 80 60 40 20 10 0 1965 2000 1975 1985 1995 2000 Mexico Singapore 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1965 100 Food (% of merchandise exports) 1985 1995 2000 80 Manuf actures (% of merchandise exports) 70 Ores and metals (% of merchandise exports) 50 Fuel (% of merchandise exports) 30 Agricultural raw materials (% of merchandise exports) 1975 90 60 40 20 10 0 1965 1975 1985 1995 2000 Thank you! [email protected]