Download Human Social Contact Network (2)

10th Postgraduate Research Symposium
Presentation Topic :
Modeling Human Vaccinating Behaviors
On a Disease Diffusion Network
PhD Student :
Supervisor :
Shang XIA
Prof. Jiming LIU
Department of Computer Science
August 31, 2009
Content:
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Page 1/15
Research Motivation & Objectives
Disease Diffusion Dynamics
Individual Behaviors and Interactions
AOC Modeling for Local-Global Relationship
Conclusions
Research Background
 In recent years, the emergence of vital epidemic which
spreads all over the world have greatly endangered the public
health and cause great social impacts.
 SARS,
• 2002.11 ~ 2003.07
• 8,096 known infected cases and 774 deaths worldwide
 Bird Flu, (H5N1)
• Recent Years
• 65 outbreaks in 2006; 55 in 2007; 11 in 2008.
 Swine Flu, (H1N1)
• 2009.04 ~ Now
• 177,699 infected cases and 1,126 deaths (Aug. 6th)
• Swine Flu Spreading Map
Page 2/15
Swine Flu World Wide Spreading
04/24/2009
05/04/2009
06/16/2009
07/06/2009
Data Source:
Page 3/15
[1] WHO, ECDC, CPC, HPA (UK), governments
[2] BBC Website: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/8083179.stm
05/26/2009
07/30/2009
Research Motivation
 Disease Diffusion on Human Social Contact Network.
 Human is the host of many severe infectious disease.
 Human’s traveling and interaction spread infection worldwide.
 Disease Diffusion changes human’s behavioral pattern.
 Decision making for vaccination or not.
 Individual changes its social interactions.
 Human’s contact pattern and demography features characterize
disease diffusion dynamics.
 Human social contact is the medium of disease diffusion.
 Human demographical characteristics influence disease
infection.
Page 4/15
Complex Social
Disease Diffusion System
Research Objectives
Global Disease Diffusion Dynamics
Relationship ?
Local Individual Reaction Pattern
 Disease Infection Model
 Human Interaction Network
 Disease Diffusion Dynamics
 Human Behavioral Mechanism
 Local-Global Relationship Problem
Page 5/15
Disease Infection Model
SIV Percolation Model
 Individual States in Network
 Susceptible Individual
 Infected Individual
 Vaccinated Individual
 Individual States Transition
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 Neighbor Infections.
 Infected individuals die or recover.
 Vaccination escape potential infection.
 Epidemic Transmission in Network
 Random Selection for a neighbor susceptible.
 Selection Probability in terms of contact patterns.
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Human Social Contact Network (1)
Scale Free Network
Short Range Routine Mobile
 Trajectory from home to workplace;
 Regular shopping in nearby supermarket;
 Visiting familiar friends or customers.
Social Contact Network
Long Range Chance Traveling
 Enjoying vacations abroad;
 Business trip to other regions;
Human Mobility Dynamics
Page 7/15
Human Social Contact Network (2)
 Heterogeneity in contact pattern
 Degree Distribution: Neighbor Contacts
 Edge Weight:
Contact Frequency
 Heterogeneity in demography difference
 Disease - Independent host parameters
Ages, Gender, Occupation and so on.
 Disease - Dependent host parameters
Current health status, Susceptibility, Disease
transmission rate, etc.
 Heterogeneity in community structure
 Community structure by contact pattern.
 Community structure by demography characteristics
Page 8/15
Individual Behavioral Mechanism (1)
 Individual Vaccination Dilemma
Herd Immunity Dilemma:
The individual incentive to vaccinate disappears at high coverage
levels. So the individual incline to persuade other instead of itself to
adopt the vaccination.
 Risk of Vaccination
Self-Interest
Decision
 Risk of Infection
 Self-Trust Experience
 Group Psychology
 Irrational Predictions
Page 9/15
Individual Behavioral Mechanism (2)
 Individual Decision Making Dynamics
 Perceived Payoff for Vaccination or not
 Records of History Decision Making
 Environment Estimation
PV  PN ?
Environment
Evaluation
 Individuals’ Biased Preference
W1
W2
History Experience
W3
Individual Biased
Preference Rules
Decision Making Mechanism
Y
Vaccination
Choice
Page 10/15
N
Non-vaccination
Choice
Local - Global Relationship Modeling
Autonomy Oriented Computing
“ AOC emphasize the modeling of autonomy in the entities of a complex
system and the self-organization of them in achieving a specific goal ”
-- By Liu (2005)
AOC Modeling Framework
 Natural System Identification
 Artificial System Construction
 Performance Measurement
Page 11/15
AOC Modeling
 Natural System Identification
 Disease Infection Model
 Individual Contact Network
Multi-Agent System
 Artificial System Construction
 Individual Interaction Patterns
 Individual Behaviors Mechanism
Autonomous Entities
& Self-Organization
 Performance Measurement
 Vaccination Patterns
 Disease Diffusion Dynamics
Page 12/15
Local-Global Relationship
Result Evaluation Criteria
 Social Vaccination Dynamics
The proportion of vaccinated individuals.
The Efficacy of Vaccination.
•The proportion of vaccinated individuals which are infected by its
infectious neighbors.
•The proportion of non-vaccinated individuals which are also infected.
 Disease Diffusion Dynamics
The proportion of infected individuals in the whole population.
The mass outbreak in a certain community.
Page 13/15
Conclusion
Individual State
Transition
Population
Immunization Patterns
Epidemic Spreading
Dynamics
 Disease Diffusion
Dynamics
Global Epidemic Spreading Dynamics
Global Dynamics
Disease Diffusion
Dynamics
 Social Contact Network
 Entities Infection Model
 Decision Making
Local Behaviors
Local-Global
Relationship
Individual State
Change
Social Contact Network
Individual Vaccination Choice
Individual
Decision Making
Local
Interaction
History Records
History Records
Environment
Evaluation
Individual
Decision Making
Disease
Infection
Individual State Transition
Page 14/15
 Vaccination Dynamics
Individual Vaccination
Decision
Environment
Evaluation
Q&A
Thank You Very Much!