Download Release of Final GDP Estimates for 2007 and Revised Estimates for

Ghana Statistical Service
Statistical Newsletter, No. B12-2003
Revised GDP Estimates for 2008
Presented by
Magnus Ebo Duncan
On 30th April 2008
Outline of the presentation
 GDP and its importance
 Types of GDP estimation
 Compilation & Estimation of GDP by the Production
Approach
 Schedule of updates
 Revised estimates for 2008
2
What is Gross Domestic Product (GDP)?
The total value of the final goods and
services produced in the country during a
given period, usually one year
3
Importance of GDP
 To measure the performance of the economy in a given time
period
 To compare the level of performance from year to year
 To assess the performance of the various sectors of the
economy
4
Measurement Approaches
 Production Approach
 Expenditure Approach
 Income Approach
5
Generation and Use of National Income
Factor
cost
Factor
Markets
Wages
& rents
Domestic private savings
Gov’t savings
Taxes
Firms
Intermediate
demand
Households
Government
Save/Invest
Transfers
Sales
revenues
Product
Markets
Private
cons.
Gov’t
exp.
Invest.
exp.
Domestic demand for final goods
Import payments
Export receipts
Rest of world
Foreign savings
Compilation & estimation of GDP by
the Production approach
MAIN AND SUB SECTORS FOR THE GDP COMPILATION
AGRICULTURE
INDUSTRY
Crops and Livestock
Cocoa Production and Marketing
Forestry and Logging
Fishing
Mining and Quarrying
Manufacturing
Electricity and Water
Construction
SERVICES
Transport, Storage and Communication
Wholesale and Retail Trade, Restaurants and Hotels
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services
Government Services
Community, Social and Personal Services
Producers of Private Non- profit Services
8
5/7/2017
Main and sub sectors for the GDP compilation
1. AGRICULTURE
Crops and Livestock
Cocoa Production and Marketing
Forestry and Logging
Fishing
2. INDUSTRY
2.1 Mining and Quarrying
2.2 Manufacturing
2.3 Electricity and Water
2.4 Construction
3. SERVICES
3.1 Transport, Storage and Communication
3.2 Wholesale and Retail Trade, Restaurants and Hotels
3.3 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services
3.4 Government Services
3.5 Community, Social and Personal Services
3.6 Producers of Private Non- profit Services
Sources of Data
 administrative records (Public and Private Enterprises, MDAs)
 Surveys (Households and Specific)
 Censuses
10
Sources of Data – Agricultural Sector
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
11
Data on crop production - Statistics, Research and
Information Division (SRID) of MOFA
Data on livestock production - Animal Health & Production
Department
Cocoa production & marketing - COCOBOD
Data on forestry & logging - Forestry Commission
Data on Fishing - Fisheries Department
Sources of Data – Industrial Sector
Mining & Quarrying
1. Mines Department and Minerals Commission
2. Precious Minerals Marketing Company
Electricity andWater
1. Electricity Company of Ghana Ltd
2. Volta River Authority
3. Ghana Water Company Ltd
12
Sources of Data – Industrial Sector (Cont.)
Manufacturing – a combination of
1. Information from the Ghana Living Standard Survey
2. VAT data
3. Financial Statements of Selected Establishments
Construction
1. Ghacem Ltd and Diamond Cement
2. Imports
3. VAT data
13
Sources
of
Data
–
Services
Sector
Wholesale & Retail Trade, Hotels & Restaurants
1.
2.
3.
Commodity flow
VAT data
Ghana Living Standard Survey (GLSS)
Transport and Communication
1. Major transport companies
2. DVLA
3. Ghana Post, Vodafone, Scanscom, Millicom, Kasapa
14
Sources of Data – Services Sector (Cont.)
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services
Banks
2. Insurance Companies
3. VAT
1.
15
Sources of Data – Services Sector (Cont.)
Government Services
1. Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning
2. Ministry of Local Government
3. Bank of Ghana
4. Controller and Accountant General’s Department
16
Sources of Data – Services Sector (Cont.)
Community, Social & Personal Service


Ghana Living Standard Surveys (GLSS)
VAT data
Producers of Private Non-Profit Services (NPISH)



17
Religious Organizations
Civil Society Organizations
TUC
Valuation of GDP
 GDP at Current Prices (Nominal GDP)
 GDP at Constant Prices (Real GDP)
18
GDP at Current Prices
 GDP computed at the prevailing market prices of the given year
 This is also referred to as the nominal GDP
19
GDP at Constant Prices
 The GDP at current prices deflated to a given base year
prices
 Using the appropriate price indices (e.g. CPI, PPI, Exchange
Rate Index, MinimumWage Index etc.)
 Currently, the base year for the constant estimates of Ghana’s
GDP is 1993
20
TYPES OF ESTIMATES
-Projected
-provisional
-Revised
-final
21
Projected Estimates
 They are made for future periods where economic
activities have not taken place or no data on activities are
available
 The estimates are made based on
• government policies and decisions
• Trend analysis and other economic models
• assumptions (eg. weather)
22
Provisional Estimates
 Any changes made to the projected estimates, using data
which cover about half of the year under consideration
 Provisional estimates are normally ready by September
23
Revised Estimates
 Revision of the provisional figures is based on full year data
for most of the sub-sectors.
 The revised GDP is normally ready by April of the
subsequent year (for e.g. Revised GDP estimates of 2007 were
generated in April 2008)
24
Final Estimates
The estimates are designated final when data
for all the subsectors for the year under
consideration are used to make adjustments
in the revised estimates.
25
REVISED ESTIMATES
FOR 2008
26
Real GDP Growth Rate in the Agriculture Sector 2008
Activity
Crops and
Livestock
Cocoa
Forestry and
Logging
Fishing
Total
Agriculture
27
Projected
Provisional
Intermediate
Revision for
Budget
Revised
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.8
4.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
3.0
5.0
3.5
3.0
3.5
3.0
3.5
3.0
5.0
4.9
4.9
5.14
Real Growth in the Industry Sector - 2008
Activity
28
Projected
Provisional
Intermediate
Revision for
Budget
Revised
Mining and
Quarrying
8.0
14.0
2.0
2.1
Manufacturing
4.0
4.0
4.3
4.5
Production and
Distribution of
Electricity and
Water
22.0
12.0
16.3
19.4
Construction
13.0
12.0
14.0
14.0
Total Industry
9.7
10
8.3
8.1
Real Growth in the Services Sector - 2008
Activity
Projected
Provisional
Intermediate
Revision for
Budget 2009
Revised
Transport, Storage
and Communication
10.0
8.0
10.0
8.9
Wholesale, Retail
Trade, Hotels and
Restaurants
10.0
7.0
7.0
10.2
Finance, Insurance,
Real Estates and
Business Services
13.0
13.0
13.0
9.6
Government Services
2.7
2.7
2.7
9.7
Community , Social
and Personal Services
6.0
4.5
4.5
4.5
Producers of Private
Non-profit Services
6.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
7.3
6.4
6.9
9.3
29 Total Services
Revised GDP estimates - 2008
Indicator
GDP at
factor cost
Net Indirect
Taxes
GDP at
Purchasers’
Value
30
Projected Provisiona
l
Intermediate
Revision for
Budget
Revised
7.1
6.9
6.5
7.4
6.0
4.6
4.6
6.2
7.0
6.7
6.2
7.3
Final GDP Estimates for 2007
(Millions of GH Cedis)
Economic Activity
31
Real GDP
Nominal GDP
Agriculture
254.0
4,761.6
Industry
190.4
3,552.9
Service
231.5
4,503.8
GDP (in purchasers’
value)
741.2
14,045.8
Revised GDP Estimates for 2008 (Millions
of GH Cedis)
Economic Activity
32
Real GDP
Nominal GDP
Agriculture
267.1
5,901.1
Industry
205.8
4,442.0
Service
252.9
5,740.5
GDP (in purchasers’ value)
795.1
17,617.6
Major Indicators
INDICATORS
Nominal GDP (in Million GH₵)
Real GDP (in Mill GH₵)
33
ESTIMATES
17,617.6
795.1
Real GDP growth rate (%)
7.3
GDP per Capita ( in GH₵)
753.5
GDP per Capita (in US$)
712.3
WAY FORWORD
34
Planned Activities
 Rebasing of the national accounts
-
Changing the base year from 1993 to a more recent year
-
Compilation of the GDP by Expenditure Approach
Compilation of more national accounts aggregates
 Quarterly National Accounts
 Quarterly Economic Bulletin
35
Acknowledgement
The Government Statistician wishes to extend
her sincere thanks to all stakeholders, who
in diverse ways, provide inputs for the
compilation of the national accounts.
THANK YOU
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