Download 1029_Economic_Fact_File_Final

Economic Fact File
on New Zealand Economy
Table of Contents
Part A: New Zealand Statistical Series
1
Real GDP, 1955-2008
SNZ
2
Growth in real GDP per capita, 1975-2008
SNZ
3
Real average weekly earnings, 1989-2008
SNZ
4
Labour productivity growth, 1978-2008
SNZ
5
Unemployment rate, 1986-2008
SNZ
6
Inflation, 1975-2008
SNZ
7
Balance of payments, 1988-2008
SNZ
8
Annual saving and accumulated net worth
9
8A National Saving, 1972-2007
SNZ
8B Household net worth, 1979-2007
RBNZ
Government spending
9A - Core Crown expenses, 1994-2013
NZ Treasury
9B - Total government outlays, 1995-2009
OECD
10
Crown operating balance, 1994-2013
NZ Treasury
11
Net migration from New Zealand to Australia, 1979-2008
SNZ
12
NZ competitiveness: relative unit labour costs, 1990-2007
OECD
13
External trade ratios to real GDP 1988-2008
SNZ
Part B: International Comparisons
1
GDP capita in OECD countries 2006
OECD
2
NZ GDP per capita relative to the OECD
OECD
3
Trans Tasman per capita incomes, 2007
SNZ & Australian Bureau of Statistics
4
Real GDP per capita growth rates Australia and NZ, 1981-2008
IMF
5
United Nations Human Development Index, 2005
United Nations
6
Country scores for Economic Freedom
Heritage Foundation/Wall St Journal
7
Global Competitiveness scores 2008-2009
World Economic Forum
8
Burden of government indicators, 2008
World Economic Forum
Part C: Other analyses
1
Click here for ‘OECD ladder too steep for NZ to climb’, National Business Review BR October 2008
2
Click here for ‘New Zealand’s economic growth prospects: Too much snake oil’, NZIER, November 2005
Part D: Links
(a) New Zealand in the World
3
Click here for the United Nations Human Development Index 2007-08
4
Click here for the IMF World Economic Outlook October 2008
5
Click here for the World Bank World Development Indicators 2008
6
Click here for the World Bank Doing Business 2009
7
Click here for the Economist Intelligence Unit Quality of Life Index
8
Click here for Global Competitiveness explained by Wikipedia
9
Click here for the World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Report 2008-09
10
Click here for Economic Freedom explained by Wikipedia
11
Click here for the Heritage-Wall St Journal Index of Economic Freedom 2008
12
Click here for the Economic Freedom of the World 2008 - Fraser Institute
(b) New Zealand in the OECD
13
Click here for OECD in Figures 2007
14
Click here for OECD Factbook 2008
15
Click here for OECD Statistical Annex Economic Outlook June 2008
16
Click here for OECD Compendium of Productivity Measures
17
Click here for Statistics New Zealand New Zealand in the OECD
(c) Other New Zealand sources
18
Click here for Statistics New Zealand datasets
19
Click here for the Treasury-MED Economic Development Indicators 2007
20
Click here for the Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update 2008
21
Click here for Treasury's Fiscal Strategy Model Forecasts for the Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update 2008
22
Click here for the table of contents for the Reserve Bank's Economic Indicators
23
Click here for 9 key graphs on the Reserve Bank's website
Part A: New Zealand Statistical Series
Figure 1: Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
$160
Treasury pre-election
forecasts for 2009
$140
Current recession
Constant 1995-96 Dollars ($ bn)
$120
$100
Growth during early LangeDouglas reforms
'Asian crisis' slowdown
$80
$60
1991 Budget, ECA
Stagflation after 197374 oil price shock
$40
1968 recession,
devaluation, fall in wool prices
nil general wage order
$20
Long recession after October 1987
sharemarket crash and collapse
of Lange-Douglas government
Actuals
$0
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
Years Ended March
Source: Statistics New Zealand, series SNBA.S2AZAT linked to SNCA.S1RB01 at 1988
2000
2005
Figure 2: Growth in Real GDP Per Capita
Annual percentage change
3 year mov avg (annual percentage change)
10%
Persistent deficits, increases
in debt, inflation and rising
unemployment
8%
Strong growth
lower inflation,
fiscal restraint
6%
MMP & resumption of big spending increases
Annual percentage changes
Slowing growth trend, higher inflation
4%
2%
0%
Shallow recession
-2%
-4%
Deep recessions
Centered 3 year moving
average
-6%
-8%
-10%
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Years Ended March
Years Ended March
Source: Statistics New Zealand, Table E.1.2 in long-term series (col AK) linked at 1988 to SNCA.S6RB01NZ
2005
2007
Figure 3: Real Average Weekly Earnings (full-time equivalent basis)
$900
$875
$825
$800
$775
$750
4-quarter moving average
$725
Little overall real wage growth as strong
employment growth reduces the
rate of unemployment
$700
$675
A
Source: Statistics New Zealand, EESQ.SBAZ9Z & CPIQ.SE9A
Mar-08
Mar-07
Mar-06
Mar-05
Mar-04
Mar-03
Mar-02
Mar-01
Mar-00
Mar-99
Mar-98
Mar-97
Mar-96
Mar-95
Mar-94
Mar-93
Mar-92
Mar-91
Mar-90
$650
Mar-89
June 2006 Dollars (CPI)
$850
Figure 4: Labour Productivity Growth
Annual percentage changes (blue line) and cycle average growth rate
1978-82
1982-85
1985-90
1990-97
1997-2000
2000--07
1978-2007
Annual changes
7%
Horizontal lines show the average growth rates during each cycle, as published by SNZ
6%
5%
This growth cycle associated
with labour shedding
4%
3%
2.8%
2.9%
2.5%
2%
1.7%
1%
1.1%
1.4%
These two growth cycles associated
with positive employment growth
0%
Slowest growth cycle in 3 decades
but highest employment growth
-1%
-2%
Weak growth cycles,
extensive economic controls
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Years Ended March
Source: Statistics New Zealand, measured sector, S1LMSI
Figure 5: Unemployment Rate (seasonally adjusted)
Figure 5: Unemployment Rate
(seasonally adjusted)
12 %
Sept 1991
Sept 1991
10.9
10.9
10%
8%
Employment
Contracts Act
6%
Steep fall to 1996
4%
Asian crisis
2%
Statistics New Zealand: Household Labour Force Survey: HLFQ.S1F3S
Statistics New Zealand: Household Labour Force Survey: HLFQ.S1F3S
8
r-0
Ma
7
r-0
Ma
6
r-0
Ma
5
r-0
Ma
4
r-0
Ma
3
2
r-0
Ma
1
r-0
Ma
0
r-0
Ma
9
r-0
Ma
8
r-9
Ma
7
r-9
Ma
6
r-9
Ma
5
r-9
Ma
4
r-9
Ma
3
r-9
Ma
2
r-9
Ma
r-9
Ma
1
r-9
Ma
0
r-9
Ma
9
r-8
Ma
8
r-8
Ma
7
r-8
Ma
r-8
6
0%
Ma
Percent of labour force
Decline resumes
Figure 6: Consumer Price Inflation and Inflation Expectations
Inflation
Expectations Two Years Ahead
20%
Wage & Price Freeze
18%
16%
14%
12%
New price stability goal in Reserve Bank Act 1989
10%
Inflation expectations now
highest since 1991
8%
6%
0-2% pa inflation largely achieved
PTA eased, higher inflation
4%
2%
0%
M
ar
-7
M 5
ar
-7
M 6
ar
-7
M 7
ar
-7
M 8
ar
-7
M 9
ar
-8
M 0
ar
-8
M 1
ar
-8
M 2
ar
-8
M 3
ar
-8
M 4
ar
-8
M 5
ar
-8
M 6
ar
-8
M 7
ar
-8
M 8
ar
-8
M 9
ar
-9
M 0
ar
-9
M 1
ar
-9
M 2
ar
-9
M 3
ar
-9
M 4
ar
-9
M 5
ar
-9
M 6
ar
-9
M 7
ar
-9
M 8
ar
-9
M 9
ar
-0
M 0
ar
-0
M 1
ar
-0
M 2
ar
-0
M 3
ar
-0
M 4
ar
-0
M 5
ar
-0
M 6
ar
-0
M 7
ar
-0
8
-2%
Source: Statistics New Zealand, CPIQ.SE9A & Reserve Bank of NZ Survey
Figure 7: Balance of Payments: Current Account Balance as a Percent of GDP
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
0%
-1%
-2%
Percent of nominal GDP
-3%
-4%
-5%
-6%
-7%
-8%
-9%
-10%
Years Ended March
Years Ended March
Source: Statistics New Zealand: BoP BOPA.S5AC3, GDP (E) SNCA.S1NB15
Figure 8A: National Savings as a Percent of GDP
14%
12%
Percent of nominal GDP
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
Years Ended March
Source: Statistics New Zealand: Savings SNCA.S2NB08Z; GDP (E) SNCA.S1NB15
2000
2002
2004
2006
Figure 8B: Household Net Worth as a Percent of Net Disposable Income
700%
Percent of net disposable income
600%
500%
400%
300%
200%
100%
0%
79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand, table 2 in household financial assets and liabilities: annual series 1978 to 2007. December values for net worth.
Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand, table 2 in household financial assets and liabilities: annual series 1978 to 2007
Figure 9A: Core Crown Expenses
35%
34%
Actuals
33%
Forecast
Percent of nominal GDP
32%
31%
GAAP
30%
IFRS
29%
Forecast
Actuals
28%
GAAP
IFRS
27%
26%
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
19
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
Years Ended June
Source: New Zealand Treasury, fiscaltimeseries - 1972-2008 linked to Medium Term Fiscal Strategy Pre-Election Update 2008
13
20
Figure 9B: New Zealand General Government Total Outlays (includes local government
spending and capital outlays)
43%
42%
Percent of nominal GDP
41%
40%
39%
38%
37%
%
36%
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Years
Source: OECD: Economic Outlook 83, June 2008
Source: OECD: Economic Outlook No 83, June 2008
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Figure 10: Total Crown balance as a percentage of GDP
Operating Balances before Gains and Losses (1994 - 2013)
5%
4%
GDP
of nominal
Percent
Percent
of GDP
3%
GAAP series
Forecast
Actual
2%
1%
0%
-1%
IFRS series
-2%
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Years ended June
Years Ended June
Source: New Zealand Treasury, fiscaltimeseries - 1972-2008 linked to Medium Term Fiscal Strategy Pre-Election Update 2008
Figure 11: Net Permanent & Long-term Loss to Australia
Figure 11: Net Permanent & Long-term Loss to Australia
40,000
33,929
35,000
32,173
31,319
30,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
-
The cumulative
netnet
outflow
these
30 years
is 495,883
The cumulative
outflow during
during these
30 years
is 495,883
-5,000
197
9
198
0
198
1
198
2
198
3
198
4
198
5
198
6
198
7
198
8
198
9
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
Net loss (+) or gain (-)
25,000
Years Ended September
Years Ended September
Source: Statistics New Zealand, EMIM.S1DEA & EMIM.S2DEA
Figure 12: New Zealand Competitiveness: Relative Unit Labour Costs
(an increase in this index is a reduction in competitiveness)
170
160
150
Indices 2000 = 100
140
130
120
110
NZ 13th in world for
Global Competitiveness
100
Loss of competiveness (NZ 24th in world for
2008 - 2009) (See Fig Part B)
90
80
1990 1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Years
Source: OECD, Economic Outlook, No 83, June 2008, annex table 43
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Figure 13: External Trade Ratios to Real GDP
Exports of Goods & Services in 1995-96 prices
Imports of Goods & Services in 1995-96 prices
40%
38%
34%
32%
30%
28%
Loss of competitiveness, rise in
imports relative to exports
26%
24%
22%
8
ar
-0
7
M
ar
-0
6
M
M
ar
-0
5
ar
-0
4
Source: Statistics New Zealand, SNCQ.S4RP60, SNCQ.S4RP61 & SNCQ.S1RB15
M
ar
-0
3
M
ar
-0
2
M
ar
-0
1
M
ar
-0
0
M
ar
-0
9
M
M
ar
-9
8
ar
-9
7
M
ar
-9
6
M
ar
-9
5
M
ar
-9
4
M
ar
-9
3
M
ar
-9
2
M
ar
-9
1
M
ar
-9
0
M
ar
-9
9
M
-8
ar
M
ar
-8
8
20%
M
Percent of GDP in 1995-96 prices
36%
Part B: International Comparisons
Figure 1: GDP Per Capita in OECD Countries 2006
$90,000
$80,000
US$ Purchasing Power Parity
$70,000
Bottom half of OECD
$60,000
$50,000
$40,000
Australia
34,700 (12th)
OECD
Average
New Zealand
26,300 (22nd)
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$0
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Source: OECD in Figures 2007
Figure 2: New Zealand GDP per Capita Relative to the Member Countries of the OECD
95%
NZ as a Percent of the Unweighted OECD Average
NZ rank in OECD
19
Ireland &
Spain
move
ahead of NZ
Greece
moves
ahead of NZ
90%
Strong growth after
1991 Budget
19
21
20
85%
MMP in 1996
Asian crisis
21
21
21
21
19
22
22
21
22
21
21
80%
22
75%
70%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Source: OECD Fact Book 2008, current prices, US dollars converted using purchasing power parity exchange rates
2004
2005
Figure 3: Trans Tasman Per Capita Incomes 2007
Figure 4: Real GDP Per Capita Growth Rates (in home currencies)
Australia
New Zealand
8%
Debt-fueled growth in NZ
6%
Deeper recession in NZ
NZ does better to 2005
1994
Annual Percent Changes
4%
Australian outlook better
2006 - 2013 (8 years)
2%
0%
1998
-2%
Asian crisis hits NZ harder
-4%
1991
Actuals
Forecasts
-6%
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook October 2008
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
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Human Development Index Value
Figure 5: United Nations Human Development Index 2005 (Top 40 countries)
(encompasses longevity, health, knowledge and GDP per capita)
0.98
0.96
Australia 3rd
NZ 19th
0.94
0.92
0.90
0.88
0.86
0.84
Source: United Nations 2007-08
Source: United Nations 2007-2008
Figure 6: Country Scores for Economic Freedom
Australia
New Zealand
84
Australia's ranking rose from 10th in the world to 4th during this period, while New Zealand's fell from 3rd to 6th.
82
80
78
76
74
72
70
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Source: Heritage - Wall Street Journal 2008 Report
2005
2006
2007
2008
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Units: 7= best possible score, 1 = worst
Units
possible score
Figure 7: Global Competitiveness Scores 2008-09 (Top 30 countries)
6.00
5.80
1st
5.60
5.40
5.20
18th
5.00
24th
4.80
4.60
4.40
Source: World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Report 2008 -09
Source: World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Report 2008-2009
Figure 8:
Figure
8:Burden
BurdenofofGovernment
Government
Waste in govt spending
Burden of govt regulation
7
Survey responses 7 = best possible score, 1 = worst possible
score
(Top-ranked country in both respects)
World rankings (out of 134 countries) are above each bar
1st
6
1st
5
16th
4
53rd
65th
85th
3
(Bottom in both respects)
2
134th
134th
1
0
Singapore
Australia
New Zealand
Source: World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Report 2008-09
Source: World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Report 2008-2009
Venezuela