Download Slavica Penev

St Antony’s College
University Of Oxford
Central Bank of
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Figure 1. FDI inflows in SEE-6 and NMS-10 , 2005-2012
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
SEE-6
2008
NMS-10
2009
2010
2011
2012
Figure 2. FDI inflows in SEE-6, 2005-2012
Figure 3: Inward FDI stock in SEE-6 and NMS-10 as a share of GDP (in %)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1995-1997
1998-2000
2001-2003
2004
NMS-10
2005-2007
SEE-6
2008-2010
2011-2012
Figure 4. FDI inward stock as a share of GDP, 2005-2012 (in %)
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
-
Albania
BiH
2005
Croatia
2006
Macedonia Montenegro
2007
2008
2009
2010
Serbia
2011
SEE-6
2012
NMS-10
Figure 5: FDI inflows as a share of Gross Fixed Capital Formation (in %)
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1995-1997
1998-2000
2001-2003
2004
NMS-10
2005-2007
SEE-6
2008-2010
2011-2012
Figure 6. FDI inflows as a share of gross fixed capital formation,
2007-2012 (in %)
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
Albania
BiH
Croatia
2007
2008
Macedonia
2009
Montenegro
2010
2011
Serbia
2012
SEE-6
NMS-10
Figure 7: Gross fixed capital formation, 2000-2012, in % of GDP
45
40
35
30
27.8
25
20
23.5
21.4
20.9
21.3
20.5
18.5
15
10
5
0
2000
Albania
2005
BiH
2008
Croatia
2009
Macedonia
2010
Montenegro
2011
Serbia
2012
SEE-6
Figure 8: Inward FDI stock by economic activity, SEE, 2010
0.8
4.8
24.6
Primary
Manufacturing
Services
Other
69.8
Inward FDI stock in services (banking, telecommunications, real estate and
retail trade) in Serbia and Croatia was over 75%, while in BiH and Macedonia
around 60%;
FDI stock in manufacturing sector in BiH was 31%, in Macedonia 31%.
Figure 9: World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators*, 2012
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
Voice and
Accountability
Political
Stability
Government
Effectiveness
SEE-6
Regulatory
quality
NMS-10
Rule of law
Control of
corruption
TABLE 1: World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators*, 2012
Voice and
Accountability
Political
Stability
Government Regulatory
Effectiveness quality
Rule of law
Control of
corruption
Albania
0.01
-0.16
-0.28
0.17
-0.57
-0.72
BiH
-0.14
-0.54
-0.47
-0.06
-0.23
-0.3
Croatia
0.48
0.56
0.7
0.44
0.21
-0.04
Macedonia
0
-0.44
-0.07
0.35
-0.24
0.02
Montenegro
0.23
0.56
0.13
0.01
-0.01
-0.1
Serbia
0.17
-0.22
-0.11
-0.08
-0.39
-0.31
SEE-6
0.13
-0.04
-0.02
0.14
-0.2
-0.24
NMS-10
0.81
0.69
0.65
0.92
0.64
0.29
Figure 10: World Bank Ease of Doing Business Rankings, 2009-2013
140
126
119
110
120
100 89
85
90
84
77
69
80
86
92
76
51
60
40
44
43
23
20
0
Albania
BiH
Croatia
2009
Macedonia Montenegro
2010
2011
2012
Serbia
2013
SEE-6
NMS-10
Figure 11: World Bank Doing Business Rankings per dimension,
2013
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Due to a decreasing access to foreign loans, FDI will be
even more important potential source of capital
Attractiveness of SEE-6 for FDI depend on the speed and
scope of their: (i) transition process and (ii) EU accession
process
The largest gap in all the countries of the region is the rule
of law,
In terms of the quality of regulatory environment, the
most considerable lags are in dealing with construction
permits, enforcing contracts and registering property,
which are linked to regulatory quality and rule of law.
Progress in narrowing down these gaps would mean a step
forward in the transition process as well as in their EU
accession process.