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CAPRI CAPRI CAPRI Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact POLICIES DATA COLLECTED FOR NOECD COUNTRIES THE AGGREGATION METHOD DEMANDE SYSTEM ESTIMATION SENSITIVITY TEST WITH THE MARKET MODULE PROJECT PLANNING FOR THE THIRD YEAR AT UCL Kamel ELOUHICHI Belgium Team 3rd CAP-STRAT Workshop, 24./25.03.2003, Bologna CAPRI POLICY DATA COLLECTED FOR NOECD COUNTRIES CAPRI TRQ : Tariff rate quota •TRQNT : the TRQ in tons •TAPREF : ad valorem tariff applied inside the TRQ •TAMF : ad valorem tariff outside the TRQ TARS : Most favourite nation specific tariff PSE : Producer subsidy equivalent CSE : Consumer subsidy equivalent Expsub : Per unit export subsidy Exps : Subsidized exports Qute : WTO quantity limit on subsidized exports Cpri : Consumer price Ppri : Producer price Padm : Administrative price 3rd CAP-STRAT Workshop, 24./25.03.2003, Bologna CAPRI ORGANISATION OF COUNTRY DATA POLICIES 3rd CAP-STRAT Workshop, 24./25.03.2003, Bologna CAPRI CAPRI AGREGATION RULE Import quantity of jth country Aggregation coefficient Wj Imp j Imp CAPRI Domestic sale of jth country (1 ) j Dsale j Dsale j j j 0.5 j R(region ) Import quantity of regional aggregation (CEE, ACP, MAD…) 3rd CAP-STRAT Workshop, 24./25.03.2003, Bologna Domestic sale of regional aggregation (CEE, ACP,…) CAPRI INTRODUCTION OF DATA POLICIES IN THE MODEL 3rd CAP-STRAT Workshop, 24./25.03.2003, Bologna CAPRI Bologna : 25-26/03/2003 CAPRI POLICY DATA COVERAGE FOR NOECD COUNTRIES CAPRI CEE CAD MED CHN IND ACP ROW (11 C) (19 C) (11 C) (1 C) (1 C) (74 C) (91 C) TRQ Most Most Most Most Most Most Most AMAD/GTAP 5 TARS Most Most Most Most Most Most Most AMAD/WTO PSE All None Few All None None Few OECD (2002) CSE All None Few All None None Few OECD (2002) Expsub Most Few Few None None Few Few WTO / GTAP 5 Exps Most Few Few None None Few Few WTO Qute Most Few Few None None Few Few WTO Cpri All None Few All None None Few OECD (2002) Ppri All None Few All None None Few OECD (2002) Padm All None Few All None None Few OECD (2002) Import All All All All All Most Most FAO (2002) D. sale All All All All All Most Most FAO (2002) 3rd CAP-STRAT Workshop, 24./25.03.2003, Bologna Sources THE ALMOST IDEAL DEMAND SYSTEM CAPRI CAPRI (AIDS MODEL) Budget share allocated to ith good Price of the jth good Total expenditure X Wi i ij1ogPj i 1og( ) p j 1ogP w j 1ogPj j Stone’s price index for the group 3rd CAP-STRAT Workshop, 24./25.03.2003, Bologna THEORETICAL PROPERTIES OF LA/AIDS MODEL CAPRI CAPRI Homogeneity 1, 0 , 0 i i ij i i i Adding-up ij 0 j Symmetry ij ji 3rd CAP-STRAT Workshop, 24./25.03.2003, Bologna CAPRI APPROACH USED TO ESTIMATING DEMAND ELASTICITIES FROM THE LA/AIDS MODEL CAPRI Price elasticities ij ij ij The Kronecker delta 3rd CAP-STRAT Workshop, 24./25.03.2003, Bologna wi Share of total expenditure allocated to ith good Bologna : 25-26/03/2003 CAPRI GROUPS OF PRODUCTS (SEPARABILITY ASSUMPTIONS) CEREALS and SUGAR • SOFT WHEAT • DURUM WHEAT •RYE AND MESLIN • BARLEY • OATS • MAIZE • OTHER CEREALS • RICE MILLED • STARCH • SUGAR OILSEEDS and VEGETABLES OILS DAIRY PRODUCTS • OLIVES FOR OIL • OTHER OILSEEDS • PULSES •POTATOES •TOMATOES • OTHER VEGETABLES •RAPE SEED OIL •SUNFLOWER SEED OIL • SOYA OIL • OLIVE OIL • COW MILK • BUTTER • SKIMMED MILK POWDER • CHEESE • FRESH MILK PRODUCTS • CREAMS •CONCENTRATED MILK •WHOLE MILK POWDER FRUITS •APPLES PEAR & PEACHES •CITRUS • OTHER FRUITS •TABLE GRAPES 3rd CAP-STRAT Workshop, 24./25.03.2003, Bologna MEATS and EGGS • BEEF • VEAL • PORK • SHEEP & GOAT •POULTRY •EGGS CAPRI WINE •TABLE WINE • OTHER WINE CAPRI PRELIMINARY RESULTS BASED ON THE GROUP OF CEREALS LA/AIDS MODEL 1 SOFT WHEAT 2 DURUM WHEAT 3 MAIZE 4 OTHER CEREALS (RYE AND MESLIN, BARLEY,OATS, OTHER CEREALS) 3rd CAP-STRAT Workshop, 24./25.03.2003, Bologna CAPRI ESTIMATED MARSHALLIAN ELASTICITIES AT THE SAMPLE MEAN PRELIMINARY RESULTS – FRENCH MARKET - CEREALS - LA/AIDS MODEL CAPRI CAPRI PRICE SOFT WHEAT SOFT WHEAT DURUM WHEAT MAIZE DURUM WHEAT MAIZE OTHER CEREALS -2,094** (1.257) EXP 1,118* (0.109) -4,911* (1.138) 0,557** (0.336) 7,797 (18.355) OTHER CEREALS Note 1 : standard errors are in parentheses Note 2 : *significant at the 5% Note 3 : **significant at the 10% 3rd CAP-STRAT Workshop, 24./25.03.2003, Bologna 0.571 (1.413) -15,911* (4.921) -1.371* (0.475) CAPRI SENSIBILITY ANALYSIS CAPRI The first example of sensitivity test Change the Armington elasticities (1, 2) of wheat at the EU and we observe the change of : SP1 : CES scale parameter SP2 : CES scale parameter second stage dp : CES distribution parameter 3rd CAP-STRAT Workshop, 24./25.03.2003, Bologna CAPRI TWO STAGE ARMINGTON SYSTEM First stage Armington quantity aggregate Armington parameter Arm1i ,r sp1i ,r dpi ,r ,rw Arm 2 1 i ,r Domestic sales dpi ,r ,r DSales 2 Arm 2i ,r sp 2i ,r dpi ,r ,r1Streamsi ,r ,r1 r1 1 1 1; 2 1 1 1 2 Second stage Armington quantity aggregate Elasticity of substitution CAPRI 1 1 i ,r 1 1 2 Trade streams from r1 to r 3rd CAP-STRAT Workshop, 24./25.03.2003, Bologna CAPRI SENSIBILITY ANALYSIS CAPRI The second example of sensitivity test Change the shift factor in the supply equation to increase supply for the EU by 10% and compare : Production Price Imports and exports Arm1 : Armington first stage aggregate Arm2 : Armington second stage aggregate Arm1p : Average price of foreign origins Arm2p : Average price of foreign an domestic origins For different sets of Armington elasticities Supply for output i Shift factor and region r Supply i , r asi , r bsi , j , r j 3rd CAP-STRAT Workshop, 24./25.03.2003, Bologna Producer price ppri j , r pindex, r CAPRI PROJECT PLANNING FOR THE THIRD YEAR AT UCL CAPRI WP 1 : CAPRI Data Base 1. Collection of data premium for Bel. and Lux. 2. Verification of grassland yields for Bel. and Lux. 3. Verification of cost estimations for Bel. and Lux. WP 4 : Regional Disaggregation of the Market Module Access to additional sources to complete the policy database for NOECD 3rd CAP-STRAT Workshop, 24./25.03.2003, Bologna CAPRI PROJECT PLANNING FOR THE THIRD YEAR AT UCL WP 8 : Revision of the Market Module CAPRI 1. Continuation of the estimation of the elasticities of the demand for human consumption 2. Sensibility tests of Armington elasticities of substitution 3. Estimation of Armington elasticities of substitution 4. Validation of the market module from the calibration years 1997-1998-1999 to the validation years 2000-2000-2002 WP 11 : reference run WP 12 : Simulation run 3rd CAP-STRAT Workshop, 24./25.03.2003, Bologna CAPRI CAPRI 3rd CAP-STRAT Workshop, 24./25.03.2003, Bologna
