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Chapter 42: Aggregate supply (2.2) Key concepts Aggregate supply (AS) and output The upward sloping AS curve – short run aggregate supply (SRAS) Shifts in SRAS The meaning of aggregate supply • Describe the term aggregate supply • Explain, using a diagram, why the short run aggregate supply curve (SRAS curve) is upward sloping • Explain, using a diagram, how the AS curve in the short run (SRAS) can shift due to factors including changes in resource prices, changes in business taxes and subsidies and supply shocks Aggregate supply (AS) and output Definition: Aggregate supply Aggregate supply is the planned output of goods and services in an economy during a period of time at different price levels. There is positive correlation between the price level and aggregate supply. (Note that we assume that factor prices remain unchanged along the AS curve.) The upward sloping AS curve – short run aggregate supply (SRAS) This is portrayed in figure 3.3.2 as the upward-sloping portion of the short run aggregate supply (SRAS) curve. The aggregate supply of an economy in the short run is based on the notion of fixed factor prices and availability – e.g. the constraints are similar to those used in Chapter 4, that is to say, that all else remains constant – the ceteris paribus assumption. Figure: 3.3.2 Short run aggregate supply (SRAS) Price level (GDP deflator, 1995 = 100)) Warning! Factor prices do NOT change in moving along the SRAS. Cork Bottle SRAS 115 110 105 100 E D C B A 80 85 90 95 Physical limit GDPreal/t (billions 2005 EUROs) HL; What holds true for a single firm will in this particular case hold true for the aggregate, namely that increased output will result in higher marginal costs – the sum of MC curves for individual firms will give us the SRAS curve for the economy as a whole. This helps explain the relatively high elasticity of aggregate supply in the short run. Higher market prices will induce suppliers to increase output. The AS curve is drawn under the assumption that prices of factor inputs do not change in the short run, so a higher price level means larger profit margins for firms. Thus the price level and output are positively correlated. The upward slope of AS also shows how firms experience diminishing returns (as existing fixed factors are ever increasingly utilised) and increasing scarcity of variable factors. Both serve to create bottlenecks in production. (Shown by the shadowed bottle in the figure.) When it becomes impossible to increase output in the short run, the physical limit of the economy’s capacity is reached and real GDP is no longer correlated to the price level. An increase in the price level simply means a general rise in prices without any increase in output. (Shown by the “corked” portion of the SRAS curve.) Shifts in SRAS The short run aggregate supply curve in the AS-AD model will shift when production costs for firms change. Three specific short run influences can be identified: 1. Price of labour: An increase in wage rates will mean higher production costs for firms and shift the short run aggregate supply curve to the left, from SRAS0 to SRAS2 in figure 3.4.11 below. This will result in lower output, Y2, and a higher price level, P2. A decrease in the wage rate will naturally have the opposite effect. 2. Price of inputs: Changes in other factor markets, e.g. the markets for raw material, capital and components will have effects on the cost picture of industrial firms. For example, a decrease in the price of steel will enable producers of cars, houses and washing machines etc to increase output at all price levels. This is shown by a shift in short run aggregate supply from SRAS0 to SRAS1, increasing output to Y1 and lowering the price level to P1. 3. Taxation and legislation: There are a variety of taxes levied on production which increase costs for firms. Labour taxes (a percentage on wages paid by employers which go to social security contributions, pensions and such) add to overall labour costs. Profit taxes (or corporate taxes) deny firms money that could be used for investment. Environmental taxes on emissions add to firms’ costs. Legislation on minimum wage rates; overtime regulation; work hours etc also add to the total cost picture of firms. Increased taxes on labour etc and stricter regulatory legislation will shift short run aggregate supply to the left, from SRAS0 to SRAS2, while lower taxes and looser legislation will shift the short run aggregate supply curve to the right, from SRAS0 to SRAS1. Figure: 3.4.11 Increase and decrease in short run aggregate supply Price level SRAS 2 P2 SRAS 0 P0 P1 SRAS will shift primarily due to changes in the price of factors and legislation on taxes and labour. SRAS 1 AD0 Y2 Y0 Y1 GDPreal/t In addition to factors affecting the price and availability of factors of production, there are factors such as the efficiency of factors and external shocks. Improvements in technology, labour and production methods will increase aggregate supply while severe storms and/or natural disasters can decrease aggregate supply. Summary and revision (need a cool pic here….maybe a pic of someone doing pushups!) 1. Aggregate supply is the planned output of goods and services in an economy during a period of time. The short run aggregate supply curve is shows positive correlation between the price level and planned output. 2. A key assumption of the SRAS curve is that factor prices and factor availability are considered constant. Any change in these variables will shift the SRAS curve. 3. Shifts in short run aggregate supply are primarily caused by the price, availability, efficiency and quantity of factors of production. Short run aggregate supply shifts due to: a. changes in factor prices (wages, raw material, capital) b. changes in factor efficiency (new technology, production methods) c. taxation (profit taxes, labour taxes, environmental taxes) d. government regulations (overtime regulation, subsidies) e. external shocks (natural disasters, weather)