Download 1444_C_2016-06-22_11-09

Low Carbon Scenarios for South East
Europe: Case Study of Albania
Zsuzsa SZALAY, Aleksandra NOVIKOVA, Tamás CSOKNYAI, József FEILER
Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Hungary, [email protected]
Why buildings of Albania, Serbia, and Montenegro?
 Building sector responsible for 38-44% of the final energy consumption, 66-74%
of the electricity consumption (2013)
 Small countries- small departments responsible for energy efficiency planning
 Low thermal comfort standards
 Outdated wooden stoves widespread
 Contracting members of the Energy Community Treaty
SLED: Support for Low Emission Development in South East Europe
Objective
 To assist the design of climate mitigation policies in the residential
buildings of Albania, Serbia, and Montenegro with the information
on:
 What are the future trends of energy consumption and CO2 emissions?
What are the key influencing factors? What are the priority sector
segments for policies?
 What kind of policy packages and what level of policy efforts are required
to make the residential buildings low energy/carbon in the medium/long
term future? What are the associated costs? How high are possible
energy savings and CO2 emission reduction?
 and… our aim was not only to supply ready results, but also to
increase the capacity of policy-makers and experts to conduct their
own assessment.
Modelling steps
Bottom-up model for thermal energy services
Architects & policy experts
Economists & policy
experts
Step 1:
Development of the building
topology
Step 5:
Construction of the building
stock model
Step 2:
Calculation of the present
building performance
Step 6:
Construction and calibration
of the energy sector in the
base year
Step 3:
Calculation of possible retrofit
packages (BAU, standard,
ambitious)
Step 7:
Calculation of baseline
energy consumption and
CO2 emissions until 2030
Step 4:
Calculation of costs for
retrofit packages
Step 8:
Formulation of policy
packages, evaluation of their
impact and associated costs
Building typology in Albania
1. Detached
house
A
... 1960
B
19611980
2. Semi-detached
house
3. Row (or
terraced) house
4. Multifamily
Apartment
 Methodology is based
on TABULA/EPISCOPE
 Categorization




Age
Type
Climate
Heating system
 Calculation
C
19811990
D
19912000
E
20012011
 steady-state seasonal
calculation based on EN
ISO 13790
 Performance




Current
BAU
Standard retrofit
Ambitious retrofit
 Costs
 Capital + installation
Statistical data on the building stock in Albania (2011 census)
Population
• Total 2,821,977 inhabitants
Number of residential buildings and dwellings
• Total 598,267 residential buildings
• Total 1,012,062 dwellings
• Total 709,865 inhabited dwellings
Building stock model
100
90
2015
80
E. Built 2016...
E. Built 2001...2015
D. Built 1991...2000
C. Built 1981...1990
B. Built 1961...1980
A. Built ...1960
2030
2050
 The growth in
new floor area
(0.6% yr.) is due
to
Million square meters
70
23%
60
50
51%
 The high
demolition rate
of old buildings
38%
33%
40
24%
30
24%
19%
20
10
0
 The growing
number of
households
13%
19%
10%
12%
3%
5%
6%
7%
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
 The larger floor
area of new
dwellings than it
was before
Calibration of the model for thermal comfort, Albania
Final energy consumption for space heating
and cooling as well as water heating
Electricity
12
Wood
Difference between
the calculation and
the reality:
10
The gap between
now and what could
be, if households
would heat whole
dwellings during the
whole day
8
Billion kWh
LPG
6
 In all countries partial heating and
intermittent heating is a typical
problem as well as uncertainties of
wood share in the energy balance.
 Floor area heated
 Zone A – 50%
 Zone B – 60%
 Zone C – 80%
 Duration of space heating
 Electricity heating - 8 hours
 Wood and LPG heating – 6 hours
4
2
2010
2011
2012
2013
Based on the energy balance
2014, with 2014,
calibration without
calibration
Based on modelling
 Many regional models
overestimate potential energy
savings and cost-effectiveness of
energy efficiency…
Net energy demand of building types, zone B
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
A1
A2
A3
A4
B1
B2
B3
B4
C1
C2
C3
C4
D1
D2
D3
D4
E1
E2
E3
E4
175
152
108
113
121
117
106
102
176
107
100
106
103
138
95
107
55
57
48
42
improvement BAU 294
239
170
149
201
194
148
139
293
174
131
148
158
232
129
140
71
75
59
51
improvement 1
115
112
83
75
103
105
79
64
129
91
70
95
90
118
69
69
64
66
61
47
improvement 2
68
66
55
53
68
68
54
48
73
58
51
77
58
69
50
50
50
51
46
40
present state
Energy demand could be reduced in case of standard and ambitious retrofits
even though these retrofits assume higher thermal comfort.
Moderate scenario
New buildings
• comply with the building codes recently adopted or to be adopted
• these codes correspond to the characteristics of the measures of the
“standard” improvement.
• will be retrofitted by 2050 in Albania and by 2070 in Serbia and
Montenegro to the standard level and will get financial support for that.
Existing
buildings
Grants will be provided to cover eligible costs for:
 Low income households
 Households in large buildings : 90% of the retrofitted households in
2016 declining to 10% of them by the target year
Low interest loans will be provided to cover eligible costs for:
 The rest of the households in small houses
 The rest of the households in row houses and apartment buildings
Ambitious scenario
Additionally to the assumptions of the moderate scenario:
New buildings
Existing
buildings
• after 2023: comply with the building codes to be introduced in that year;
• these codes correspond to the characteristics of the measures of the
“ambitious” improvement;
• before 2023: are eligible for low-interest loans to cover eligible costs, if
their performance achieve that according to the 2023 building code
• will be retrofitted by 2050 in all countries and will get financial support
for that (the same structure as in the moderate scenario)
• until 2022, will have to comply with the standard improvement
• after 2023, will have to comply with the ambitious improvement
Results: LEAP model for Albania
Results: SLED Ambitious Albania - Final energy consumption
35%
Results: SLED Ambitious Albania - Electricity savings
49%
Conclusions
 In all three countries, both moderate and ambitious policy scenarios
may deliver significant energy savings
 Sector priorities for policy-making are different for each country.
 In Albania, it is important to ensure that buildings built after 1991
will be retrofitted
 In Serbia and Montenegro, it is important to retrofit the building
stock constructed in 1971 – 1990
 For all countries it makes sense to focus on energy savings in small
buildings.
 Space heating is the largest energy use for energy savings.
Conclusions
 The investments required are high in all three countries
 Need to couple thermal efficiency improvement of existing
buildings with their BAU renovation
 Need to enforce retrofits at the point of sale
 The investments into all scenarios except for the Serbian ambitious
scenario are cost-effective or on the border of cost-effectiveness.
 Saved energy costs are higher than annualized investment costs as a
whole on the country level, but not for all building categories in all
climate zones.
 It is important to calculate other benefits additionally to saved
energy costs
 The realization of the scenarios requires a careful design and massive
provision of financial products for the residential energy efficiency as
well as the introduction and enforcement of building codes.
Our project team
Project implemented by the Regional Environmental Center for Central and
Eastern Eruope (REC)
Supported by the Austrian Development Cooperation
Reports are available at:
Models are available on request at:
http://sled.rec.org/building.html
[email protected]
International experts
 Aleksandra Novikova, Tamas Csoknyai , Zsuzsa Szalay
 Jozsef Feiler, Agnes Kelemen, Vaiva Indilaite
Albania
 Gjergji Simaku, Teuta Thimjo, Thimjo Plaku
Serbia
 Milica Jovanović Popović, Bojana Stankovic, Branislav Živković , Ignjatović
Dušan, Aleksandra Sretenović
Montenegro
 Zoran Miljanic , Biljana Gligoric, Igor Vušanovic
Thank you
www.sled.rec.org
Information inquiries:
Zsuzsa Szalay: [email protected]
Aleksandra Novikova: [email protected]
Tamás Csoknyai: [email protected]
József Feiler: [email protected]
Vaiva Indilaite: [email protected]
Gjergji Simaku: [email protected]
Results – net energy demand, present state
Climate zone B, full heating
Climate zone B, partial heating
SLED moderate scenario
 Objective: by 2050, all new and existing buildings will achieve at least
the level of standard improvement 1
SLED target year
Last scenario year
First scenario year
...
2014
2015
Building code 2003
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026 ..2030
Building code acc. to EPBD'10
New buildings have to comply with the 1st improvement
Low interest loans
Existing buildings
have to comply with the 1st improvement
90% of detached/semi-detached houses
10% of row houses and apartment buildings in 2015, increase to 90% in 2050
Grants
Existing buildings
have to comply with the 1st improvement
10% of detached/semi-detached houses
90% of row houses and apartment buildings in 2015, decrease to 10% in 2050
..2050
SLED ambitious scenario
 Objective: by 2050, the largest part of the new and existing buildings will
achieve the level of ambitious improvement 2
SLED target year
Last scenario year
First scenario year
...
2014
2015
Building code 2003
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Building code acc. to EPBD'10
New buildings have to comply
with the 1st improvement
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026 ..2030
Building code acc. to EPBD'10
All the same, but new buildings have
to comply with the 2nd improvement
Low interest loans
New buildings
have to comply with the 2st improvement
Low interest loans
Continuation of the financial incentives
Existing buildings
all the same, but buildings have
have to comply with the 1st improvement
to comply with the 2nd improvement
90% of detached/semi-detached houses
10% of row houses and apartment buildings in 2015, increase to 90% in 2050
Grants
Continuation of the financial incentives
Existing buildings
all the same, but buildings have
have to comply with the 1st improvement
to comply with the 2nd improvement
10% of detached/semi-detached houses
90% of row houses and apartment buildings in 2015, decrease to 10% in 2050
..2050