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Planet
Earth
We Have a Problem
Feedback Dynamics
& the Acceleration
of Climate Change
Population Growth Throughout
History
World Population
2050 – 9.1 Billion
9
8
7
2006 – 6.5 Billion
6
Billions
5
4
3
1945 – 2.3 Billion
2
1
First Modern Humans
1776 – 1 Billion
1492 – 500 Million
0
160,000
B.C.
Source: United Nations
100,000
B.C.
10,000
B.C.
7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000
B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C.
1
A.D.
1,000
A.D.
2,000
A.D.
2,150
A.D.
Atmospheric
Carbon-dioxide
Increase in GHG
concentration raises
efficiency of insulating envelope,
reducing net global radiation
Increase in GHG
concentration raises
efficiency of insulating envelope,
reducing net global radiation
Surface
temperature
rises, driven by
retained solar energy
until resultant
radiation recovers
to establish a new
thermal equilibrium
Except that we
are accelerating the
accumulation of GHGs.
Except that we
are accelerating the
accumulation of GHGs.
Except that we
are accelerating the
accumulation of GHGs,
and feedbacks are also pushing
the system even further from balance
Except that we
are accelerating the
accumulation of GHGs,
and feedbacks are also pushing
the system even further from balance
Spatial Sink
Geothermal
energy
Temperature
Solar
energy
Radiative
Forcing
Contrails &
Aerosols
Other GHGs
Concentration
Albedo
Effect
Carbon Dioxide
Concentration
Methane
Concentration
Cloud
Effects
Water Vapour
Concentration
Spatial Sink
Geothermal
energy
Temperature
F.G
F.3
Contrails &
Aerosols
F.2
F.1
Other GHGs
Concentration
Radiative
Forcing
F.R
F.4
F.5
Albedo
Effect
Carbon Dioxide
Concentration
Solar
energy
Cloud
Effects
F.6
Methane
Concentration
Water Vapour
Concentration
Spatial Sink
Geothermal
energy
Temperature
F.G
F.3
Contrails &
Aerosols
F.2
F.1
Other GHGs
Concentration
Radiative
Forcing
F.R
F.4
F.5
Albedo
Effect
Carbon Dioxide
Concentration
Solar
energy
Cloud
Effects
F.6
Methane
Concentration
Water Vapour
Concentration
Spatial Sink
Geothermal
energy
Temperature
F.G
F.3
Contrails &
Aerosols
F.2
F.1
Other GHGs
Concentration
Radiative
Forcing
F.R
F.4
F.5
Albedo
Effect
Carbon Dioxide
Concentration
Solar
energy
Cloud
Effects
F.6
Methane
Concentration
Water Vapour
Concentration
Spatial Sink
Geothermal
energy
Temperature
F.G
F.R
Solar
energy
Thermal Inertia
F.3
F.4
Radiative
Forcing
Contrails &
Aerosols
F.2
F.1
Other GHGs
Concentration
F.5
Albedo
Effect
Carbon Dioxide
Concentration
Cloud
Effects
F.6
Methane
Concentration
Water Vapour
Concentration
Spatial Sink
Geothermal
energy
Temperature
F.G
F.R
Solar
energy
F.Ti
F.3
Contrails &
Aerosols
F.2
F.1
Other GHGs
Concentration
Thermal Inertia
Radiative
Forcing
Albedo
Effect
Carbon Dioxide
Concentration
F.4
F.5
Cloud
Effects
F.6
Methane
Concentration
Water Vapour
Concentration
Most of the systems known to affect
Climate Change are now in net positive
feedback. Each feedback mechanism
accelerates its own specific process. As a
whole, the complex adaptive feedback
system consists of an interactive set of
mutually reinforcing subsystems.
This second order
feedback system
therefore
accelerates the rate of
Climate Change
Warming is accelerating
GREATLY,
especially "Recently"
Dennis Bushnell, Chief Scientist, NASA Langley Research Center
12th January 2007
The Earth’s climate is remarkably sensitive to
global forcings. Positive feedbacks
predominate. This allows the entire planet to
be whipsawed between climate states…. Recent
greenhouse gas emissions place the Earth
perilously close to dramatic climate change that
could run out of our control, with great dangers
for humans and other creatures.
James Hansen, Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space
Studies. 18th February 2007
Beyond the
Tipping Point
Towards the
Anthropocene
Extinction Event
“Tipping Point”or Bifurcation
Between Two Attractor Basins
Unstable
Equilibrium
Potential
Energy
of
Equilibrium
State
Inflection
Point
Runaway
Global Heating
Original stable
Equilibrium
Increase in Global Heating
Introducing the Concept
of
“Critical Threshold”
“Critical Threshold”
the point beyond which
the power of positive feedback
overwhelms the capacity for
human intervention
“Critical Threshold”
the point towards which
the cost of climate stabilisation
escalates asymptotically
towards infinity
Cost
of
Climate
Stabilisation
We are now in the early stages
of runaway Climate Change.
There does not appear to be
any naturally occurring
negative feedback process in
place to contain its effects.
Strategically we have to
generate a negative feedback
intervention of sufficient power
to overcome the now active
positive feedback process.
Then maintain its effectiveness
during the period while
temperature-driven feedback
continues to be active.
Climate
Stabilisation
Strategic Imperative for
Tomorrow’s World
Radiative Forcing
Or Global Heating
The Gap between Energy received from the Sun
and
Energy radiated back into space from the Earth
Accelerating
Global Heating
+ve
Global
Radiative
Forcing
Heating
0
Thermal Equilibrium
--ve
Time
Radiative Forcing
560
540
500
Radiative Forcing
5.0
4.5
Carbon dioxide equivalent
(parts per million)
4.0
3.5
460
3.0
420
2.5
380
2008
560
540
500
5.0
Radiative Forcing
4.5
Carbon dioxide equivalent
(parts per million)
4.0
3.5
460
3.0
420
380
2.5
CO2 update 2008
2008
2008
560
540
500
5.0
Radiative Forcing
4.5
Carbon dioxide equivalent
(parts per million)
4.0
3.5
460
3.0
420
380
+ CO2e
2.5
CO2 update 2008
2008
2008
560
540
500
5.0
Radiative Forcing
4.5
Carbon dioxide equivalent
(parts per million)
4.0
+ H2Ovap
3.5
460
3.0
420
380
+ CO2e
2.5
CO2 update 2008
2008
2008
560
540
500
5.0
Radiative Forcing
4.5
Carbon dioxide equivalent
(parts per million)
4.0
+ H2Ovap
3.5
460
3.0
420
380
+ CO2e
2.5
CO2 update 2008
2008
2008
560
540
500
Radiative Forcing
5.0
+ Albedo-change?
4.5
Carbon dioxide equivalent
(parts per million)
4.0
+ H2Ovap
3.5
460
3.0
420
380
+ CO2e
2.5
CO2 update 2008
2008
2008
Radiative Forcing
Or Global Heating
Value of about 5 watts per square metre
Radiative Forcing
Or Global Heating
Value of about 5 watts per square metre
Is reduced by 1 w.m-2 for Global Dimming
Radiative Forcing
Or Global Heating
Value of about 5 watts per square metre
Is reduced by 1 w.m-2 for Global Dimming
And by 1 w.m-2 for Temperature rise of 0.8ºC
Radiative Forcing
Or Global Heating
Is currently running at about 3 w.m-2
Radiative Forcing
Or Global Heating
Is currently running at about 3 w.m-2
That is about 12 one k.watt fires per small sized
football pitch
Radiative Forcing
Or Global Heating
Is currently running at about 3 w.m-2
Or 1,500,000 Giga Watts over the whole Earth
Radiative Forcing
Or Global Heating
Is currently running at about 3 w.m-2
Or 1,500,000 Giga Watts over the whole Earth
= 1.5 Trillion (million x million) 1KW Fires
Radiative Forcing
Or Global Heating
Is currently running at about 3 w.m-2
It is increasing by 25% per decade
Climate
Stabilisation
Means reducing that to
Zero
Like This
Accelerating
Global Heating
+ve
Effects of required
Strategic Intervention
Global
Radiative
Heating
Forcing
Thermal Equilibrium
0
Global
Cooling
-ve
Intervention Point
Time
There now exists a
State of Planetary
Emergency
Declaring the State
of Planetary Emergency
Engaging the State
of Planetary Emergency
“Failure is not an option”
Gene Kranz
Apollo 13: Mission Controller
Planet Earth
We Have a Problem
Feedback Dynamics
& the Acceleration
of Climate Change
A Scientific Update
Proceedings of the Westminster Briefing hosted by the
All Party Parliamentary Climate Change Group on 6th June 2007
The
Project
The
Project
www.apollo-gaia.org
Geo-Thermal energy
Geo-Thermal energy
Spatial Sink
Temperature
Geothermal
energy
Global
Heating
Geo-Thermal energy
Spatial Sink
Temperature
F.G
Geothermal
energy
Global
Heating
Radiation cycle
Radiation cycle
Spatial Sink
Temperature
Solar
energy
Global
Heating
Radiation cycle
Spatial Sink
Temperature
Solar
energy
Global
Heating
F.R
Carbon Cycle
Spatial Sink
Carbon Cycle
Global
Heating
Temperature
CO2(e)
Concentration
CO2
Emission
CO2 Equivalence
of other Emitted
GHGs
CO2
Absorption
CO2 From
Breakdown of
Methane
Spatial Sink
Carbon Cycle
Global
Heating
Albedo
Effect
Temperature
CO2(e)
Concentration
F.1
CO2
Emission
CO2 Equivalence
of other Emitted
GHGs
CO2
Absorption
CO2 From
Breakdown of
Methane
Spatial Sink
Carbon Cycle
Global
Heating
Albedo
Effect
Temperature
CO2(e)
Concentration
F.1
F.2
CO2
Emission
CO2 Equivalence
of other Emitted
GHGs
CO2
Absorption
CO2 From
Breakdown of
Methane
Albedo Effect
Spatial Sink
Albedo Effect
Global
Heating
Temperature
+ or –
Change in
Albedo
Reflection from
Land & Sea
Reflection from
Vegetation
Reflection from
Ice and Snow
Spatial Sink
Albedo Effect
Global
Heating
Reflection from
Contrails and
Aerosols
Reflection from
Land & Sea
+ or –
Change in
Albedo
Reflection from
Vegetation
Temperature
Reflection from
Cloud Forms
Reflection from
Ice and Snow
Spatial Sink
Albedo Effect
Global
Heating
Reflection from
Contrails and
Aerosols
Temperature
+ or –
Change in
Albedo
Reflection from
Cloud Forms
F.3
Reflection from
Land & Sea
Reflection from
Vegetation
Reflection from
Ice and Snow
Spatial Sink
Albedo Effect
Changes in Cosmic
Radiation
Reflection from
Contrails and
Aerosols
Global
Heating
Temperature
+ or –
Change in
Albedo
Reflection from
Cloud Forms
F.3
Reflection from
Land & Sea
Reflection from
Vegetation
Reflection from
Ice and Snow
Water Vapour
Spatial Sink
Water Vapour
Global
Heating
Temperature
Water Vapour
Concentration
Evaporation
From
Land surface
Evaporation
From
Plant surface
Evaporation
From
Water surface
Spatial Sink
Water Vapour
Global
Heating
Cloud
Formation &
Precipitation
Evaporation
From
Land surface
Temperature
Water Vapour
Concentration
Evaporation
From
Plant surface
Evaporation
From
Water surface
Spatial Sink
Water Vapour
Global
Heating
Temperature
F.4
Cloud
Formation &
Precipitation
Evaporation
From
Land surface
Water Vapour
Concentration
Evaporation
From
Plant surface
Evaporation
From
Water surface
Spatial Sink
Water Vapour
Global
Heating
Temperature
F.4
Cloud
Formation &
Precipitation
Evaporation
From
Land surface
Water Vapour
Concentration
F.5
Evaporation
From
Plant surface
Evaporation
From
Water surface
Spatial Sink
Water Vapour
Changes in Cosmic
Radiation
Global
Heating
Temperature
F.4
Cloud
Formation &
Precipitation
Evaporation
From
Land surface
Water Vapour
Concentration
F.5
Evaporation
From
Plant surface
Evaporation
From
Water surface
Spatial Sink
Water Vapour
Changes in Cosmic
Radiation
Global
Heating
Temperature
F.4
Cloud
Formation &
Precipitation
Evaporation
From
Land surface
Water Vapour
Concentration
F.5
Evaporation
From
Plant surface
Evaporation
From
Water surface
What happens if we shift to a hydrogen economy and replace CO2
with H2O as an anthropogenic greenhouse gas?
Methane Cycle
Spatial Sink
Methane Cycle
Global
Heating
Temperature
CO2
concentration
Methane
Concentration
Molecular
Breakdown
Methane
Emissions
Human
activity
Plant & Animal
Sources
Bacterial
activity
Released
From Store
Spatial Sink
Methane Cycle
Global
Heating
Temperature
CO2
concentration
Methane
Concentration
F.6
Molecular
Breakdown
Methane
Emissions
Human
activity
Plant & Animal
Sources
Bacterial
activity
Released
From Store
Feedback Mechanisms by Category
Driven By:
F.G
Temp./GHG Effect
Operates On:
Geo-thermal Heating
Feedback Mechanisms by Category
Driven By:
Operates On:
F.G
Temp./GHG Effect
0.1
Rising GHG concentration
inhibition of geo-thermal
radiation
increased surface temperature
eventual
increase in earth core temperature
Geo-thermal Heating
Feedback Mechanisms by Category
Driven By:
Operates On:
F.G
Temp./GHG Effect
G.1
Rising GHG concentration
inhibition of geo-thermal
radiation
increased surface temperature
eventual
increase in earth core temperature
G.2
Rising surface temperature from retained solar energy
inhibits geo-thermal radiation
even higher surface
temperature to restore geo-thermal radiation
eventual
increase in earth core temperature
Geo-thermal Heating
Feedback Mechanisms by Category
Driven By:
F.R
Temperature
Operates On:
Radiation
Feedback Mechanisms by Category
Driven By:
Operates On:
F.R
Temperature
R.1
Rising surface temperature increases the rate of radiation
Decreases radiative forcing
eventual restoration of
thermal equilibrium
Radiation
Feedback Mechanisms by Category
Driven By:
Operates On:
F.R
Temperature
R.1
Rising surface temperature increases the rate of radiation
Decreases radiative forcing
eventual restoration of
thermal equilibrium
Radiation
NB:
The effect of this negative feedback mechanism is masked by the
acceleration of radiative forcing
Feedback Mechanisms by Category
Driven By:
F.1
CO2 Concentration
Operates On:
CO2 Absorption Rate
Feedback Mechanisms by Category
Driven By:
Operates On:
F.1
CO2 Concentration
1.1
Rising CO2 concentration
higher acidification of ocean
surface water
decreasing absorption of CO2
increased CO2 concentration
CO2 Absorption Rate
Feedback Mechanisms by Category
Driven By:
Operates On:
F.1
CO2 Concentration
1.1
Rising CO2 concentration
higher acidification of ocean
surface water
decreasing absorption of CO2
increased CO2 concentration
1.2
Rising CO2 concentration
higher acidification of ocean
surface water
destruction of plankton
decreasing
absorption of CO2
increased CO2 concentration
CO2 Absorption Rate
Feedback Mechanisms by Category
Driven By:
Operates On:
F.1
CO2 Concentration
1.1
Rising CO2 concentration
higher acidification of ocean
surface water
decreasing absorption of CO2
increased CO2 concentration
1.2
Rising CO2 concentration
higher acidification of ocean
surface water
destruction of plankton
decreasing
absorption of CO2
increased CO2 concentration
1.3
Rising CO2 concentration
higher acidification of ocean
surface water
destruction of plankton
decreasing
emission of DMS
decreased cloud formation
lowered
cloud Albedo, less I-R absorption
increased global heating?
CO2 Absorption Rate
Feedback Mechanisms by Category
Driven By:
F.2
Temp./CO2 Concentration.
Operates On:
CO2 Concentration/Absorption
Feedback Mechanisms by Category
Driven By:
Operates On:
F.2
Temp./CO2 Concentration.
2.1
Rising temperature of ocean surface water
decreasing
absorption of CO2
increased CO2 concentration
CO2 Concentration/Absorption
Feedback Mechanisms by Category
Driven By:
Operates On:
F.2
Temp./CO2 Concentration.
2.1
Rising temperature of ocean surface water
decreasing
absorption of CO2
increased CO2 concentration
2.2
Rising temperature of ocean surface water
decreasing
plankton life
decreasing absorption of CO2
increased
CO2 concentration
CO2 Concentration/Absorption
Feedback Mechanisms by Category
Driven By:
Operates On:
F.2
Temp./CO2 Concentration.
2.1
Rising temperature of ocean surface water
decreasing
absorption of CO2
increased CO2 concentration
2.2
Rising temperature of ocean surface water
decreasing
plankton life
decreasing absorption of CO2
increased
CO2 concentration
2.3
Rising temperature + Increasing CO2 concentration
trigger of land-based vegetation from carbon sink to
carbon source
increased CO2 concentration
CO2 Concentration/Absorption
Continue category
Feedback Mechanisms by Category
Driven By:
Operates On:
F.2
Temp./CO2 Concentration.
2.4
Rising temperature
increasing respiration of
soil-based bacteria
increased release of CO2
increased CO2 concentration
CO2 Concentration/Absorption
Feedback Mechanisms by Category
Driven By:
Operates On:
F.2
Temp./CO2 Concentration.
2.4
Rising temperature
increasing respiration of
soil-based bacteria
increased release of CO2
increased CO2 concentration
2.5
Rising temperature + change in rainfall
drying out of
peat bogs
increasing enzyme activity followed by risk
of fire
release of CO2
increased CO2 concentration
CO2 Concentration/Absorption
Feedback Mechanisms by Category
Driven By:
Operates On:
F.2
Temp./CO2 Concentration.
2.4
Rising temperature
increasing respiration of
soil-based bacteria
increased release of CO2
increased CO2 concentration
2.5
Rising temperature + change in rainfall
drying out of
peat bogs
increasing enzyme activity followed by risk
of fire
release of CO2
increased CO2 concentration
2.6
Rising temperature
expansion of land-based tectonic plates
increased volcanic activity
release of CO2
increased
CO2 concentration
CO2 Concentration/Absorption
Feedback Mechanisms by Category
Driven By:
F.3
Temperature
Operates On:
Albedo Effect
Feedback Mechanisms by Category
Driven By:
Operates On:
Albedo Effect
F.3
Temperature
3.1
Rising temperature
melting of ice and snow
decrease in Albedo effect
increased heating
Feedback Mechanisms by Category
Driven By:
Operates On:
Albedo Effect
F.3
Temperature
3.1
Rising temperature
melting of ice and snow
decrease in Albedo effect
increased heating
3.2
Rising temperature
die-back of tropical forest
increase in Albedo effect
decreased heating
Feedback Mechanisms by Category
Driven By:
Operates On:
Albedo Effect
F.3
Temperature
3.1
Rising temperature
melting of ice and snow
decrease in Albedo effect
increased heating
3.2
Rising temperature
die-back of tropical forest
increase in Albedo effect
decreased heating
3.3
Rising temperature
northward expansion of Boreal forest
decrease in Albedo effect
increased heating
Continue category
Feedback Mechanisms by Category
Driven By:
Operates On:
Albedo Effect
F.3
Temperature
3.4
Rising temperature of ocean surface
die-back of
plankton
decreased release of DMS
decreased cloud
formation
decreased Albedo effect + less I-R absorption
increased heating?
Feedback Mechanisms by Category
Driven By:
Operates On:
Albedo Effect
F.3
Temperature
3.4
Rising temperature of ocean surface
die-back of
plankton
decreased release of DMS
decreased cloud
formation
decreased Albedo effect + less I-R absorption
increased heating?
3.5
Rising temperature of ocean surface
increased density
of water vapour
increased cloud formation
increase
in Albedo effect + greater I-R absorption decreased heating?
Feedback Mechanisms by Category
Driven By:
F.4
Temperature
Operates On:
Cloud Formation
Feedback Mechanisms by Category
Driven By:
Operates On:
Cloud Formation
F.4
Temperature
4.1
Rising low level air temperature
increased capacity
for H2O vapour storage
decreased cloud formation
decrease in Albedo effect + less I-R absorption
increased heating?
Feedback Mechanisms by Category
Driven By:
Operates On:
Cloud Formation
F.4
Temperature
4.1
Rising low level air temperature
increased capacity
for H2O vapour storage
decreased cloud formation
decrease in Albedo effect + less I-R absorption
increased heating?
4.2
Decreasing high level air temperature
decreased
capacity for H2O vapour storage
increased cloud
formation
increased Albedo effect + more I-R absorption
decreased heating?
Feedback Mechanisms by Category
Driven By:
F.5
Temperature
Operates On:
Evaporation
Feedback Mechanisms by Category
Driven By:
Operates On:
Evaporation
F.5
Temperature
5.1
Rising temperature (all surfaces)
increased evaporation
increased water vapour density
more cloud
formation
increased Albedo effect, but more I-R absorption
decreased heating?
Feedback Mechanisms by Category
Driven By:
Operates On:
Evaporation
F.5
Temperature
5.1
Rising temperature (all surfaces)
increased evaporation
increased water vapour density
more cloud
formation
increased Albedo effect, but more I-R absorption
decreased heating?
5.2
Rising temperature (all surfaces)
increased evaporation
increased water vapour density
increased GHG
effect
increased global heating
Feedback Mechanisms by Category
Driven By:
F.6
Temperature
Operates On:
Methane Emissions
Feedback Mechanisms by Category
Driven By:
Operates On:
F.6
Temperature
6.1
Rising temperature
increased bacterial activity
increased methane production
increased GHG
effect
increased global heating
Methane Emissions
Feedback Mechanisms by Category
Driven By:
Operates On:
F.6
Temperature
6.1
Rising temperature
increased bacterial activity
increased methane production
increased GHG
effect
increased global heating
6.2
Rising temperature
thawing of tundra permafrost
release of methane
increased GHG effect
increase in global heating
Methane Emissions
Feedback Mechanisms by Category
Driven By:
Operates On:
F.6
Temperature
6.1
Rising temperature
increased bacterial activity
increased methane production
increased GHG
effect
increased global heating
6.2
Rising temperature
thawing of tundra permafrost
release of methane
increased GHG effect
increase in global heating
6.3
Rising temperature
warming of shallow seas
release of methane hydrates
increased GHG effect
increase in global heating
Methane Emissions
Feedback Mechanisms by Category
Driven By:
F.Ti
Temperature
Operates On:
Thermal Inertia
Feedback Mechanisms by Category
Driven By:
Operates On:
F.Ti
Temperature
Ti.1
Hotter ocean surface
more stratification and less
mixing
degrade of ocean thermal sink
increase in rate of global warming
Thermal Inertia
Feedback Mechanisms by Category
Driven By:
Operates On:
F.Ti
Temperature
Ti.1
Hotter ocean surface
more stratification and less
mixing
degrade of ocean thermal sink
increase in rate of global warming
Ti.2
Rising temperature
less available ice to melt
decreased endothermic inertia
increase in rate of global warming
Thermal Inertia
Feedback Mechanisms by Category
Driven By:
Operates On:
F.Ti
Temperature
Ti.1
Hotter ocean surface
more stratification and less
mixing
degrade of ocean thermal sink
increase in rate of global warming
Ti.2
Rising temperature
less available ice to melt
decreased endothermic inertia
increase in rate of global warming
Ti.3
Hotter water-air interface
more evaporation
enhanced endothermic inertia
decrease in rate of global warming
Thermal Inertia
Thermal Inertia
Thermal Inertia
Spatial Sink
Heat loss to spatial sink
Temperature
Global
Heating
Radiative forcing from all sources
Spatial Sink
Heat loss to spatial sink
Ice-melt
endothermic
Heating
of land-mass
Evaporation
endothermic
Temperature
Thermal Inertia
Heating
of ocean
Heating
of ice
Global
Heating
Radiative forcing from all sources
Heating of
atmosphere
Spatial Sink
Heat loss to spatial sink
Ice-melt
endothermic
Heating
of land-mass
Evaporation
endothermic
Temperature
Thermal Inertia
Heating
of ocean
Heating
of ice
Global
Heating
Radiative forcing from all sources
Heating of
atmosphere
Spatial Sink
Heat loss to spatial sink
Ice-melt
endothermic
Heating
of land-mass
Evaporation
endothermic
Temperature
Thermal Inertia
Heating
of ocean
Heating
of ice
Global
Heating
Radiative forcing from all sources
Heating of
atmosphere
Spatial Sink
Heat loss to spatial sink
Ice-melt
endothermic
Evaporation
endothermic
Temperature
F.Ti
Heating
of land-mass
Thermal Inertia
Heating
of ocean
Heating
of ice
Global
Heating
Radiative forcing from all sources
Heating of
atmosphere
Towards
an effective Strategy
For
Climate Stabilisation
BAU
Fossil Fuel Emissions
0
BAU
Emissions
Reduction
Fossil Fuel Emissions
0
Descent to Low
Carbon Economy
BAU
Emissions
Reduction
Fossil Fuel Emissions
Descent to Low
Carbon Economy
0
Family of Solutions based on
1990’s Understanding of
Climate Change
BAU
Emissions
Reduction
Fossil Fuel Emissions
Descent to Low
Carbon Economy
0
Family of Solutions based on
1990’s Understanding of
Climate Change
Imperative to move:
Imperative to move:
beyond a low carbon economy
Imperative to move:
beyond a low carbon economy
through zero carbon economy
Imperative to move:
beyond a low carbon economy
through zero carbon economy
to a carbon removal economy
Imperative to move:
beyond a low carbon economy
through zero carbon economy
to a carbon removal economy
At a Global level
Imperative to move:
beyond a low carbon economy
through zero carbon economy
to a carbon removal economy
At a Global level
In the shortest possible time
CO2 emitting
fossil fuel is an energy
source whose time is
over!
Change from treating it
as a scarce resource
with high value
To an eco-toxin
to be removed
as quickly as possible!
0
Fossil Fuel Emissions:
Build-up of Eco-Toxin
BAU
Emergence into Carbon
Removal Economy
0
Fossil Fuel Emissions:
Build-up of Eco-Toxin
Emissions
Reduction
BAU
Emergence into Carbon
Removal Economy
0
Fossil Fuel Emissions:
Build-up of Eco-Toxin
Emissions
Reduction
BAU
Solutions based on Current Understanding of
Climate Dynamics
Metamorphosis: 1
Metamorphosis: 1
Increasing penalty for
emissions from fossil
fuels
Metamorphosis: 1
Increasing penalty for
emissions from fossil
fuels
Increasing rewards for
removal of atmospheric
co2
Metamorphosis: 2
Removal Rewards
Emission Penalties
A Matrix of co-evolutionary sub-systems
ANTHROPOSPHERE
With an array of non-linear feedbacks
between all elements
Population
Economics
ANTHROPOSPHERE
Energy
Resources
Science &
Technology
Industry
Population
Employment
Pollution
Economics
ANTHROPOSPHERE
Energy
Resources
Science &
Technology
Industry
Health
Food
Water
Agriculture
Population
Employment
Pollution
Economics
ANTHROPOSPHERE
Energy
Resources
Science &
Technology
Industry
Health
Food
Water
Agriculture
Population
Employment
Pollution
Economics
Politics
ANTHROPOSPHERE
Conflict
& War
Energy
Transport
Urbanisation
Travel &
Mobility
Resources
Science &
Technology
Industry
Health
Food
Water
Agriculture
Population
Employment
Pollution
Economics
Politics
ANTHROPOSPHERE
Conflict
& War
Resources
Consumer Media &
Advertising
-ism
Energy
Transport
Urbanisation
Travel &
Mobility
Education
Values
Science &
Technology
Industry
Communication
Health
Food
Water
Agriculture
Population
Employment
Pollution
MilitaryIndustrial
Economics
Complex
Politics
ANTHROPOSPHERE
Conflict
& War
Psycho-
Resources
Social
Dynamics
Consumer Media &
Advertising
-ism
Energy
Transport
Urbanisation
Travel &
Mobility
Religious Beliefs
Education
Values