Download Climate scenarios for regional applications, selected cases of Latin

1ST Latin American and the Caribbean Regional Workshop Assessment
for Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and
Sectors (AIACC)
San José 27-30 June 2003
Climate Scenarios for Regional applications,
selected cases of Latin America
Abel Centella
Institute of Meteorology
La Habana, Cuba
Experiences from First National Communication
process in some countries in LA region
Countries: Cuba, El Salvador, Guatemala, Panamá,
Haití, Saint Kitts & Nevis, Dominican Republic,
Paraguay
National Communication Process:
• V&A is one of the issues
• Lack of time for research
• Previous experiences
• Building Capacity
The Work was oriented to
1. Develop a climate base line for each country (grided climate data)
2.
Understand the climate change issue
3. The art of climate change scenario development
4. The use of climate changes scenario results
Temperatura media
18.00
18.00
17.50
17.50
17.00
17.00
16.50
16.50
16.00
16.00
15.50
15.50
15.00
15.00
14.50
14.50
14.00
14.00
13.50
-92.50
-92.00
-91.50
-91.00
-90.50
-90.00
-89.50
-89.00
-88.50
-88.00
13.50
-92.50
18.00
18.00
17.50
17.50
17.00
17.00
16.50
16.50
16.00
16.00
15.50
15.50
15.00
15.00
14.50
14.50
14.00
14.00
13.50
-92.50
-92.00
-91.50
-91.00
-4 -2
-90.50
0
-90.00
2
4
13.50
-88.00 -92.50
-91.50
-91.00
-90.50
-90.00
-89.50
-89.00
-88.50
-88.00
-92.00
-91.50
-91.00
-90.50
-90.00
-89.50
-89.00
-88.50
-88.00
-89.50
-89.00
6
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38
8
-88.50
-92.00
Precipitación
18.00
18.00
MAY
17.50
17.00
17.00
16.50
16.50
16.00
16.00
15.50
15.50
15.00
15.00
14.50
14.50
14.00
14.00
13.50
-92.50
-92.00
-91.50
-91.00
-90.50
-90.00
-89.50
-89.00
-88.50
-88.00
18.00
13.50
-92.50
-92.00
-91.50
-91.00
-90.50
-90.00
-89.50
-89.00
-88.50
-88.00
18.00
JUL
17.50
17.00
16.50
16.50
16.00
16.00
15.50
15.50
15.00
15.00
14.50
14.50
14.00
14.00
-92.00
-91.50
-91.00
-90.50
-90.00
0
-89.50
50
-89.00
-88.50
AGO
17.50
17.00
13.50
-92.50
JUN
17.50
-88.00
13.50
-92.50
-92.00
-91.50
-91.00
-90.50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
-90.00
-89.50
-89.00
-88.50
-88.00
EL SALVADOR
1996
1993
1990
1987
1984
1981
1978
1975
1972
1969
1966
0.8
1963
1960
1957
1954
1951
Anomalías °C
TEMPERATURE
1.0
0.6
CUBA
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
GUATEMALA
1995
1992
1989
1986
1983
1980
1977
1974
1971
1968
1965
1962
1959
1956
1953
1950
1947
1944
1941
Anomalías (mm)
PRECIPITATION
300
200
CUBA
100
0
-100
-200
-300
EL SALVADOR
GUATEMALA
Correlations between STA in Pacific Regions and Precipitation in El Salvador with
some lags (months)
CLIMATE SCENARIOS WERE CREATED
USING MAGICC SIMPLE CLIMATE MODEL
MAGICC/SCENGEN
University of East Anglia
UK
Simple Climate Model
Structure Representation
Emission scenarios
CO2
CH4
N2O
Global warming &
Climate sensitivity
Global warming,
emission scenarios &
Climate sensitivity
Selecting GCM
HADCM2
Reino Unido
GISSEQ
Estados Unidos
UKTR
Reino Unido
GFDLLO
Estados Unidos
UKHI
Reino Unido
LLNL
Estados Unidos
UKLO
Reino Unido
OSU
Estados Unidos
CSIRO9/M2
Australia
CCCEQ
Canadá
BMRC
Australia
ECHAM1TR
Alemania
CSIRO9
Australia
ECHAM3TR
Alemania
Criteria for selection:
• Representation of current climate
• Grid resolution
• Model vintage
• Different projections
Climate projections from different GCMs combined with
different GHG scenarios and Climate Sensibilities
THE UNCERTAINTY SPACE
• Emissions
• Climate sensitivity
• GCM regional outputs
Which CC scenario we can select?
Combining Simple and Global Climate Models
Santer (1990)
MCG
MCS
DVi = (2XCO2 - 1XCO2)
DTaño,MCS = DTMAGICC
DVMCG = DVi / DTMCG
DVi,año = DVMCG*DTaño,MCS
TEMPERATURE ANNUAL VARIATION
GUATEMALA
PRECIPITATION ANNUAL VARIATION
GUATEMALA
ARIDITY INDEX
GUATEMALA
SOME LESSONS
1. Develop an uncertainty analysis approach
2. Downscaling must be incorporate (e.g High Resolution
Regional Model)
3. Individual (country) experiences must be integrated in
future work
Unfortunally, a regional proposal for CA & the Caribbean did not
classify for the AIACC Grant