Download Incorporating climate change science in the Endangered Species Act

Incorporating Climate Change Science
into the Endangered Species Act
Recovery Implementation Program for
the Texas Edwards Aquifer
Todd Votteler, Ph.D.
Guadalupe-Blanco
River Authority
The Collaborative Approach of
(800) 413-4130
Recovery Implementation
www.gbra.org
Programs
Outline
• The Endangered Species Act
• The Edwards Aquifer Region: A
Unique and Complicated Ecosystem
• State – Federal Challenges
• Climate Change
• Tree-Ring Research
The Edwards Aquifer-San Antonio
Segment (Karst Aquifer)
-Irrigation & recharge out West
-San Antonio in the Center
-Major Springs in the East
The Guadalupe River is the Primary Source
of Freshwater Inflows to San Antonio Bay…
Brown Shrimp
3
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.2
Whooping
Crane
1.
3
1.
1
1.
15
1.
17
1.
2
1.
25
TxEMP
MODEL
SOLUTIONS
1.
03
FISHERIES HARVEST
(MILLIONS LBS)
Guadalupe
River
INFLOW (MILLIONS
ACRE-FEET)
1.15
MAF
Blue Crab
A Few Facts
• San Antonio’s population is nearly 2 million,
up from 200,000 in 1940.
• Population of Texas Projected to Double by
2050.
• 95% of San Antonio’s water supply comes
from the Edwards Aquifer.
• Edwards Aquifer springs provide 25% of
the flow in the Guadalupe River.
• During droughts like 2005-2006 and 20082009 as much 80% of the flow in the
Guadalupe River comes from the springs.
Good
Times
Bad Times
1956,
Drought of
Record.
Fountain
Darters
Wiped Out
at Comal
Springs.
Texas
Begins
Water
Planning.
What is a Recovery
Implementation Program?
• Recovery Implementation Programs (RIP)
are an option under the Endangered
Species Act that bring together a broad
group of stakeholders including Federal,
State, and private interests to work
together to recover endangered species.
• Through a RIP, federal funds can be passed
through a federal agency to accomplish
Program goals.
• RIPs are a potential solution for intractable
Endangered Species Act issues.
Typical Activities
•
•
•
•
Habitat restoration
Captive propagation and augmentation
Research & monitoring
Development of flow
recommendations
• Management of non-native species
• Education, and public involvement
Edwards Aquifer
• The goal is to recover federally listed
species dependent on the Edwards
Aquifer while water development
proceeds in compliance with all
applicable Federal and State laws.
Recovery Implementation Program
for the Edwards Aquifer
• The Texas Legislature created a RIP process
in May 2007.
• The Texas Legislature’s RIP process may set
a precedent for other states:
– Who governs the process;
– What questions are considered; and
– The schedule and other guidelines
• Participants include state agencies, river
authorities, groundwater districts, cities,
industries, farmers, environmental
organizations and others.
Climate Change & the Edwards
• Loaiciga et al (1996) identified Edwards as one of
the most vulnerable regional watersheds to
climate change
–
–
–
–
–
–
Region is dependent on aquifer
Strong climate & hydrology link
Climate record shows large variability
Groundwater pumping increasing
Aquifer supports habitats & species facing extinction
Water institutions mired in uncertainty
• “If these models are correct, the levels of aridity
of the recent multiyear drought or the Dust Bowl
and the 1950s droughts will become the new
climatology of the American Southwest within a
time frame of years to decades (Seager et al,
2007).”
Texas Water Planning is Based on
the Drought of Record
• Drought of Record is when natural
hydrological conditions provided the
least amount of water supply.
• For much of Texas the Drought of
Record is drought from 1947 to 1957.
• State water plan must be based on
the Drought of Record.
Will Climate Change be Incorporated
into the Edwards RIP?
• The answer depends on the term of
the Incidental Take Permit resulting
from the RIP.
• If the term of the Incidental Take
Permit is less than 15 years, then
climate change might not be
considered.
• However, if the term is less than 25
years is the process worth the effort?
• This question faces those developing
HCPs across the country.
Will Climate Change be Incorporated
into the Edwards RIP?
• Texas lawmakers and water
managers are skeptical about climate
change.
• Is there another way to incorporate
climate variability into the RIP
without focusing on climate change?
• Possibly, by focusing on historical
variability.
• Water managers rely upon historical
drought and flood information.
Tree-Ring Study
• Trees produce a narrow growth ring under
drought conditions and a wider ring under
normal and wet conditions.
• Chronologies are based on small core
samples extracted from living trees & crosssections cut from dead logs.
• The tree-ring record is compared to Weather
Service climatic data to find out the seasonal
response of the trees.
Objectives for Tree-Ring Study
• Less is known about Texas in this field than
Eastern & Western US or Mexico.
• Local chronologies better than distant
chronologies.
• We are focusing on baldcypress at several
locations in south-central Texas.
• We are hoping to produce a 500 year
chronology for south-central Texas.
• Study Participants:
–
–
–
–
–
–
Guadalupe-Blanco River Authority
University of Arkansas, Tree-Ring Lab
University of Texas, School of Geosciences
Texas Forest Service
Texas Parks & Wildlife Department
Individual Landowners
Summary
• The Edwards Aquifer Recovery
Implementation Plan is likely to
provide a model that other states will
follow to deal with their intractable
Endangered Species Act disputes.
• If the region focuses on preparing for
decade long droughts identified in the
tree-ring study will the process satisfy
a requirement that the plan account
for climate change?
Questions?
Previous Tree-Ring Study for Edwards
Aquifer Region; 1537-1995
“The 1950s drought was very bad, even
when viewed in a long-term context. The
reconstructions also indicate that there may
have been periods when drought was more
protracted and the impact might have been
considerably worse. It would appear unwise
for civil authorities to assume that the 1950s
drought represents the worst case scenario
to be used for planning purposes in water
resources management in the South Central
and Edwards Plateau climate divisions of
Texas.”
Why this RIP Unique
• First RIP fully based on an HCP.
• First RIP where federal water
management is not part of the program.
• First RIP developed to address aquifer
management.
• First RIP in a private lands state.
• First RIP to include a coastal/estuary
ecosystem in the project area.
• First RIP mandated in state legislation.
Tree-Ring Chronologies
• 2 Baldcypress: LA: 996 –1988; Eastern
TX: 1254 –1993
• 4 Douglas-fir: 2 TX: 1537–1992, 1473 –
1992; 2 NM: 1362–1989, 137BC–1992
• 1 NM ponderosa pine: 1391–1987
• 3 NM Pinyon pine: 1410 –1987; 1411–
1972; 1478 –1972
• 6 post oak: 3 from living trees, 3 from
historic buildings; 1648 –1995
Current Water RIP Programs
• Middle Rio Grande ESA Collaborative
Program
• Upper Colorado RIP
• San Juan RIP
• Platte River Endangered Species
Partnership
• Lower Colorado Multi-species Conservation
Program
• June Sucker RIP