Download Economic Performance Indicators January 2013

SE BOARD ECONOMIC POLICY COMMITTEE
STRATEGY & ECONOMICS
SEBEPC
FOR DISCUSSION
ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE INDICATORS (DECEMBER 2012 UPDATE)
The Scottish Government Economic Strategy (GES) illustrates how sustainable economic
growth can be achieved and highlights three key components of increased growth, the three
P’s: productivity, participation and population. The output of an economy is dependent on
how many people are working and how productive they are. Increasing labour productivity,
the employment rate and the population will support long-term economic growth.
Source: Scottish Government
The Economic Policy Committee has been tasked with monitoring the progress of the
Scottish economy over time based on the performance of a small number of indicators.
Most of these indicators are drawn from the National Performance Framework set out in the
GES, supplemented by those that help provide a broader assessment of economic
performance and those that are more directly related to Scottish Enterprise activity. The
indicators selected are:
.
1
2
3
4
5
6
Growth in GDP*
GDP per head
Employment rate*
Productivity*
Entrepreneurial activity (business starts)*
Research and development:
- Total R&D as % GDP*
- Business R&D as % GDP
7
Innovation activity
8
Graduates as % of the population
9
Population dynamics:
- Population growth*
- Net migration as a % of the population
10
Export sales growth*
* National Performance Framework indicator
SCOTLAND’S RECENT HEADLINE ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
Growth in GDP between 2001 and 2011 averaged 1.3% a year, placing Scotland 27th out of
35 OECD countries (4th quartile). Scotland’s GDP grew at a steady pace up until 2008,
when growth slowed, before declining decline in 2009 due to the global recession. Scotland
was ranked 17th in terms of GDP per head, a measure of wealth and prosperity, in 2010 (2nd
quartile)
DRIVERS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH
GDP growth is driven by productivity, participation and population. The output of the
economy is dependent on the size of its labour force (influenced by population), labour
participation (how many of the labour force are employed) and labour productivity (how
much output labour is able to produce). Increasing labour productivity, the participation
(employment) rate and the population will support long-term economic growth.
Scotland’s relatively low GDP growth rate is caused by below average population
growth, below average productivity levels and only average participation
(employment) rates.
Growth in GDP
Productivity
GDP per head
Participation
Population
Skills (% of
Graduates)
Innovation
(R&D &
wider
innovation)
Internationalisation
(exports &
FDI)
Enterprise (startups, business base,
high growth)
Efficiency
Net
Migration
Enablers – Infrastructure, connectivity, competition
Population
Scotland’s population has grown by 3.0% over the last ten years, lower than the UK as a
whole and the majority of OECD countries. Scotland ranks 26th against other OECD
countries and is in the 4th quartile. Population growth has improved over the last few years,
however it is still below UK and average OECD levels.
It is projected that Scotland will see a significant increase in the over-60 age group over the
next twenty years. Scotland’s ageing population could adversely affect economic growth
unless the working age population increases through migration (and higher birth rates over
2
the longer term), and/or labour market participation rates are increased among older people,
and/or productivity is significantly enhanced.
Participation
Scotland’s participation (or employment) rate for Q1 2011 was 71.2%, above the UK level
(70.7%). Scotland has the highest employment rate of UK countries. However, comparing
against the OECD, Scotland ranks 12th out of 35 countries and is in the 2nd quartile. Over
the last ten years, Scotland has remained in the 2nd quartile, however the gap with the
OECD top quartile has narrowed. To close the gap Scotland requires an additional 70,000
people in employment (current employment is 2.4 million)
Productivity
In 2010 Scotland was ranked 17th out of 32 OECD countries for productivity levels (3rd
quartile). For Scotland to reach the top quartile, it needs to increase GDP per hour worked
by £5.21, a 17% increase (equivalent to £20.5 billion additional GDP from a current level of
£120 billion).
DRIVERS OF PRODUCTIVITY
The main drivers of productivity include innovation, enterprise and skills (along with
competition and investment).
Scotland’s below average productivity performance is due to low rates of R&D, low
business innovation activity and low entrepreneurship (investment levels are also
relatively low). Skills levels are just above average and export performance is
relatively strong.
Innovation and R&D
In 2010, gross expenditure on R&D (GERD) in Scotland was £1.9 billion, equivalent to
1.58% of GDP. Scotland is ranked 23rd out of 30 OECD countries (3rd quartile). For
Scotland to reach the top quartile GERD would have to be £1.5 billion higher.
Business enterprise R&D (BERD – a component of GERD) was £622 million, equivalent to
0.52% of GDP, placing Scotland in the 4th quartile of OECD countries (28th out of 31). To
reach top quartile BERD would need to be £1.6 billion higher. The gap between Scotland
and top quartile OECD countries has widened over the last ten years.
In terms of innovation, 43% of firms in Scotland are ‘innovation active’ placing Scotland 17 th
out of 21 OECD countries (4th quartile). To reach top quartile performance Scotland would
require an additional 5,000 innovation active firms.
Enterprise
Scotland has low levels of entrepreneurial activity and data suggests that activity been
declining in recent years. In terms of business starts, Scotland had 34 business registrations
per 10,000 adult population in 2009, compared to 47 for the UK as a whole. Scotland’s
performance is in the 3rd quartile of UK regions.
Comparing entrepreneurship internationally, Scotland ranks 13th out of 13 countries and is in
the 4th quartile for OECD countries for Total Entrepreneurial Activity (TEA). To reach OECD
3
top quartile performance Scotland would require an additional 122,000 more adults to be
entrepreneurially active.
Export performance can be an indicator of enterprise as businesses look to markets outside
their home economy to grow. Also, exporting businesses tend to be more productive than
non-exporters, and increase productivity further by exporting. Scotland has experienced
good export sales growth over the last few years, outperforming the UK and most OECD
countries. Annual average export sales growth between 2008 and 2010 was 1.8%
(compared to -0.2% for the UK), placing Scotland in the 2nd quartile of OECD countries (11th
out of 35 countries).
Skills
In 2009 around a fifth (22%) of those aged between 25-64 had a degree level qualification or
above, placing Scotland in the second quartile of OECD countries (13th out of 30 countries).
To reach top OECD top quartile, Scotland requires an additional 95,000 graduates.
Strategy and Economics
December 2012
4
Table 1: Scottish Economy/Scottish Enterprise Performance Indicators December 2012 Update
No
1.
1a.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6a.
6b.
Measure
Latest year
full set of
data
available
Frequency
of
publication
Source
Scotland’s
international
quartile
position
To reach OECD top
quartile, Scotland
would need an
additional:
GDP growth - 10 year
annual average
(2001-2011)
2011
(2010 UK
regions)
Annual
OECD,
ONS,
Scottish
Govt.
4
(27 out of 35
countries)
GDP growth inc Oil &
Gas – 10 year annual
average (2001-2011)
2011
(2010 UK
regions)
Annual
OECD,
ONS,
Scottish
Gvt
3
(25 out of 35
countries)
2010
Annual
OECD,
ONS
2
(17 out of 35
countries)
2
(12 out of 34
countries)
3
(17 out of 32
countries)
£2.5 billion GDP
annual average
growth to match Q1
long term growth rate
of 3.3%
£2.2 billion GDP
annual average
growth to match Q1
long term growth
rates
£3,600 GDP per
head from £22,800.
GDP per head
Employment rate (1564 yr olds)
2011
Productivity (GDP per
hour worked)
2010
Entrepreneurial
activity
2011
Total R&D relative to
GDP
2010
Business R&D
relative to GDP
2010
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
OECD,
Scottish
Gvt
OECD,
ONS
GEM,
ONS
4
(13 out of 13
countries)
OECD,
S Govt
3
(23 out of 30
countries)
4
(28 out of 31
countries)
OECD,
S Govt
5
Scotland’s UK
region
quartile
position
1
(2 out of 12)
Latest trend
compared to
International
Top Quartile
Latest Trend
compared to
UK Regional
Top Quartile




1
(3 out of 12)


70,000 more in
employment from
2.46 to 2.53 million
2
(5 out of 12)


£5.20 per hour, a
17% increase from
£30.40 to £35.60
(equivalent to £20.5
billion GDP)
122,000 more
entrepreneurially
active from 128,000
to 250,000
£1.5billion R&D from
£1.9 billion to £3.4
billion
1
(3 out of 12)

-
3
(9 out 12)


2
(6 out of 12)


£1.6 billion BERD
from £622 million to
£2.2 billion
3
(9 out of 12)


2
(4 out of 12)
No
Measure
7.
Innovation activity
8a.
Graduates as % of
the population (aged
25-64)
8b.
9.
10.
Latest year
full set of
data
available
Frequency
of
publication
Source
Scotland’s
international
quartile
position
To reach OECD top
quartile, Scotland
would need an
additional:
2008
Biennial
Eurostat,
BIS
4
(17 out of 21
countries)
2
(13 out of 31
countries)
4
(26 out of 32
countries)
2
(12 out of 31
countries)
2
(11 out of 35
countries)
5,000 innovation
active firms from
17,000 to 22,000
2009
(2011 UK)
Annual
Population growth
(1999 -2010)
2010
Annual
Net migration as a %
of the population
2009
Export sales growth 3 year annual
average
(2008-2010)
2010
Annual
Annual
OECD,
S Govt
OECD,
GROS
OECD,
ONS
OECD,
S Govt
Scotland’s UK
region
quartile
position
4
(11 out of 12)
Latest trend
compared to
International
Top Quartile
Latest Trend
compared to
UK Regional
Top Quartile


95,000 more
graduates from
620,000 to 715,000
1
(3 out of 12)


590,000 more people
from 160,000 to
750,000
4
(10 out of 12)


14,000 more people
from 26,000 to
40,000
2
(4 out of 12)


£100 million more
exports each year
from £19.7 billion to
£19.8billion
3
(9 out of 12)


For each indicator the most up-to-date data available has been used to assess:




Scotland’s performance compared to OECD countries and UK regions in terms of quartile position and ranking;
the size of the gap between Scotland’s performance and that of the top quartile of OECD economies i.e. what Scotland needs to do to
reach Q1;
latest trends in terms of the gap between Scotland’s performance and the top OECD/UK quartile i.e. assessing whether the gap is growing
or narrowing. For most indicators this considers trends since 1999 up to the latest year of data;
for the National Performance Framework indicators, the scale of the challenge to meet the Government targets.
For a small number of indicators, due to data availability, a different dataset has been used to monitor Scotland’s performance with OECD
economies than has been used to compare Scotland with UK regions. For example, data from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor has been
used to measure ‘total entrepreneurial activity’ for Scotland and OECD countries whereas Business Birth (VAT/PAYE Registration) data has
been used as a proxy for entrepreneurial activity for the UK regions. For the innovation measure, the UK regional comparison dataset is based
on the UK Innovation Survey definition of innovation active, which is different to that used in the European-wide Community Innovation Survey.
Also, for a number of indicators, more up-to-date data is available for UK regions than for OECD countries.
6
Notes:
‘Latest trend’ columns highlights whether the gap has narrowed between Scotland’s performance and the top OECD/UK region quartile (comparing 1999 to
latest year available). For GDP growth, this looks at annual average growth, and whether gaps have been narrowing.
Indicator 1 and 1a: There are two sets of figures for GDP comparisons. One excludes the contribution of offshore oil and gas: one includes the contribution of
offshore oil and gas using the geographical share approach in relation to activities taking place on the UK continental shelf and calculated based on Table 10
of the Scottish National Accounts Project.
For 1a, high oil prices in 1999 and 2000 boosted GDP growth, and falls in prices in 2008 and 2009 reduced GDP growth, and in combination this affected the
performance in terms of closing the GDP growth gap with the OECD and UK regions top quartiles.
Indicator 5: For Scotland and OECD comparisons, Total Entrepreneurial Activity (TEA) is defined as the proportion of individuals in the working age
population who are actively trying to start their own business or running their own business that is less than 3 years old. Figures refer to average TEA scores
for 2007-2009 to reduce the effects of large year-on-year changes that, due to survey sample sizes, may not be statistically significant. VAT/PAYE registration
data is used as a proxy for entrepreneurship in UK regions
Indicator 9: Export sales growth – note Scottish export figures excludes exports to the rest of the UK.
7
Table 2: Scotland’s Performance Gap – To Achieve Government Economic Strategy Target
GES Target
From
To
£124,300m
£124,650m
£124,300m
£124,530m
Increase GDP per hour by £5.20
£30.40
£35.60
130,000 more in employment
(2011)
2.46
2.59
To maintain labour market participation rate in the UK.
Top performing country (2011 Q1)
-
-
To match average European (EU15) population growth
over the period from 2007 to 2017.
12,000 more people each year
16,000
28,000
To match EU average would require an
additional £405m GERD
(Scotland GERD as % of GDP is 1.58%,
EU average GERD as % of GDP is 1.91%)
(2010)
£1,890m
£2,295
An additional £11bn exports (+50%)
(2010)
£22bn
£33bn
152,000
178,400
To raise Scotland's GDP growth rate to the UK level by
2011.
To match the GDP growth rate of the small independent
EU countries by 2017.
To rank in the top quartile for productivity amongst our
key trading partners in the OECD by 2017.
To close the employment rate gap with the top five OECD
economies by 2017.
To increase research & development spending.
To increase the value of international exports by 50% by
2017.
Performance Gap
£350M extra each year
(Scotland average growth is 1.3%,
UK average growth is 1.6%)
(2001 – 2011)
£230M extra each year
(Scotland average growth is 1.3%,
Small EU average growth is 1.5%)
(2001 – 2011)
Increase from current rate of 350 businesses
per 10,000 adults (2011)
Increase the total number of VAT/PAYE registered
enterprises in Scotland per 10,000 adults.
To match UK average of 411 enterprises per
10,000 adults would require an additional
26,400 registered enterprises (2011)
** No specific target
8
Table 3: Current OECD quartile rankings overview for Scotland, Arc of Prosperity Countries and other small EU countries
Indicator
Avg GDP
growth
Avg GDP
growth inc Oil &
Gas
GDP per head
Employment
rate (15-64 yr
olds)
Productivity
Entrepreneurial
activity
Total R&D as %
GDP
Business R&D
as % GDP
Innovation
activity
Graduates as %
of the pop.
(aged 25-64)
Population
growth (19992009)
Net migration
as % of the
population
Export sales
growth -3 yr
annual avg
Year
Scotland
Austria
Denmark
Finland
Iceland
Ireland
Lux
Norway
Portugal
Sweden
2001-2011
4
3
4
3
2
2
2
3
4
2
2001-2010
3
3
4
3
2
2
2
3
4
2
2010
2
2
1
2
2
1
1
1
4
2
2011
2
2
1
2
1
4
3
1
3
1
2010
2
2
2
2
3
1
1
1
4
2
2009-2011
4
-
4
2
-
-
-
1
-
-
2010
3
2
1
1
2
3
3
3
3
1
2010
4
2
1
1
2
2
3
3
3
1
2008
4
2
2
2
-
1
1
3
1
2
2009
2
4
1
2
1
3
3
1
4
2
1999-2010
4
3
3
3
1
1
1
2
3
2
2009
2
3
2
3
4
1
1
1
3
2
2008-2010
2
4
4
4
1
3
4
3
3
3
9
Table 4: Scotland’s OECD quartile ranking 1999 - latest
Growth in GDP
(10 year annual average %
growth)
Growth in GDP inc Oil & Gas
(10 year annual average %
growth)
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
4
4
2
3
2
3
3
3
4
3
3
3
4
4
3
GDP per head
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Employment rate
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
-
-
-
3
3
3
2
3
3
4
4
4
Total R&D as % of GDP
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Business R&D as % of GDP
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
Productivity - GDP per hour
worked
Entrepreneurial activity (annual
% rate)
Innovation activity
Graduates as % of population
(aged 25 to 64)
Population growth (annual %
growth)
2
3
4
3
-
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
-
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
Net migration as % of population
3
4
3
4
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Export growth (annual %
growth)
-
-
-
-
2
4
4
4
2
1
1
Notes:
Entrepreneurial activity measures annual TEA scores (figures in Tables 1 and 2 refer a three year average)
Population growth measures annual percentage changes (figures in Tables 1 and 2 refer to population growth between 1999 and 2008)
Exports growth measures annual percentage growth (figures in Tables 1 and 2 refer to three year annual average growth)
10
2
4
2
4
Turkey
11
United Kingdom
United States
Austria
Spain
Hungary
Finland
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
Turkey
Germany
Netherlands
Scotland
Norway
Belgium
United Kingdom
United States
Austria
Spain
Hungary
Finland
Switzerland
Canada
Iceland
New Zealand
Mexico
Ireland
Sweden
Slovenia
Luxembourg
Australia
Czech Republic
Israel
Estonia
Korea
Poland
Chile
Slovak Republic
Japan
Portugal
Italy
Japan
Portugal
Italy
Denmark
5.0%
Greece
6.0%
Denmark
Annual Average GDP Growth rate inc. Oil & Gas (%),
OECD Countries 2001 - 2011
France
Figure 2
Greece
Source: OECD, ONS, Scottish Govt.
France
Germany
Netherlands
Norway
Belgium
Scotland (inc. Oil & Gas)
Source: OECD, ONS, Scottish Govt.
Switzerland
Canada
Iceland
New Zealand
Mexico
Ireland
Sweden
Slovenia
Luxembourg
Australia
Czech Republic
Israel
Estonia
Korea
Poland
Chile
Slovak Republic
Data Chart Appendix (Scotland and small EU countries highlighted)
Figure 1
Annual Average GDP Growth Rate,
OECD Countries 2001-2011 (%)
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
Figure 3
Recent Economic Performance - GDP Growth 2010-11,
Scotland and Small European Countries (%)
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
Source: OECD, ONS, Scottish Govt.
Portugal
Scotland
Denmark
Ireland
Luxembourg
Sweden
Finland
Austria
-2.0
Figure 4
Annual Average GDP Growth (%),
UK Regions 2000-2010
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
United
Kingdom
West Midlands
North West
Wales
Yorkshire and
The Humber
Northern
Ireland
North East
East of England
East Midlands
South West
South East
Scotland
London
0.0%
Source: ONS
Please note - Figures are in current prices, Regional Index not available. Not comparable to other charts.
12
Finland
Germany
Belgium
Canada
Sweden
Austria
Denmark
Ireland
Australia
Netherlands
13
Note: In-commuting to Luxembourg inflates its GDP per head figure
Mexico
Turkey
Chile
Poland
Estonia
Hungary
80000
Slovak Republic
Czech Republic
Portugal
Israel
Slovenia
Greece
Korea
New Zealand
Spain
Italy
Japan
France
Scotland
Iceland
East Midlands
Scotland (inc.
Oil & Gas)
South West
South East
London
United Kingdom
West Midlands
North West
Wales
Yorkshire and
The Humber
Northern
Ireland
North East
East of England
Source: ONS, Scottish Govt.
United Kingdom
Source: OECD, ONS
United States
Switzerland
Norway
Luxembourg
Figure 5
Annual Average Growth rates inc. Oil & gas (%),
UK Regions 2000-2010
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
Please note - Figures are in current prices, Regional Index not available. Not comparable to other charts.
Figure 6
GDP per Head US$, OECD Countries 2000 and 2010
100000
90000
2000
2010
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
Source: OECD, Scottish Government
14
Turkey
Greece
80.0
Hungary
Italy
Spain
United Kingdom
Wales
Northern Ireland
North East
Yorkshire and
The Humber
West Midlands
North West
East Midlands
South West
30 000
Slovak Republic
Ireland
Poland
Mexico
Israel
Chile
Belgium
France
Korea
Portugal
Luxembourg
Estonia
Czech Republic
United States
Finland
Japan
United Kingdom
Scotland
Scotland
South East
London
East of England
Source: ONS
current prices
Canada
Austria
Germany
New Zealand
Australia
Denmark
Sweden
Netherlands
Norway
Iceland
Switzerland
Figure 7
GVA per Head, UK regions, 1999 and 2010 (£)
40 000
35 000
1999
2010
25 000
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
0
Figure 8
Employment Rate (% of working age people),
UK Regions 1999 and 2011 (%)
90.0
1999
2011
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
Source: OECD, ONS
Lu No
xe rw
m ay
bo
ur
U
I
ni re g
te la
d nd
St
a
B tes
N elg
et
he ium
rla
n
Fr d s
G anc
er e
m
a
A ny
us
U
ni
t
te Sw ria
d
e
d
K
in en
g
A dom
us
t
Sc ral
ot ia
D lan
Sw enm d
itz ar
er k
la
F i nd
nl
a
C nd
an
ad
Sp a
ai
n
Ita
Ic ly
el
an
Ja d
pa
Is n
r
S
N lo ael
ew v
en
Ze ia
al
Sl
an
ov
a k Gr d
e
C
ze Re ec
ch pu e
R bli
ep c
u
Po bli
rt c
ug
a
K l
or
Es ea
to
n
Po ia
l
H an
un d
ga
Tu r y
rk
ey
C
hi
M le
ex
ic
o
140.0
15
70.0
United
Kingdom
80.0
North East
Northern
Ireland
West Midlands
Wales
London
Yorkshire and
the Humber
North West
Scotland
East Midlands
South West
East of England
South East
Figure 9
Employment Rates (% of working age people),
UK Regions 1999 and 2011 (%)
90.0
1999
2011
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
Source: BIS Regional Economic Performance Indicators, ONS (Data refers to Spring quarters)
Figure 10
Productivity (GDP per hour worked), OECD Countries
Index USA = 100, 1999 and 2010
160.0
1999
2010
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
Figure 11
Productivity (GVA per hour worked),
UK Regions 1999 and 2010 (Index, UK = 100)
140
1999
2010
120
100
80
60
40
20
Northern
Ireland
Wales
United Kingdom
Source: ONS
West Midlands
North East
North West &
Merseyside
Yorkshire &
Humberside
South West
East Midlands
East
Scotland
South East
London
0
Figure 12
Total Entrepreneurial Activity Rates,
OECD Countries 2008-2010 Average (%)
12
10
8
6
4
2
Belgium
Italy
Denmark
Scotland
Japan
Germany
France
Spain
United
Kingdom
Finland
Netherlands
Hungary
Greece
Norway
United States
Iceland
0
Source: GEM
Note: Total Entrepreneurial Activity (TEA) is defined as the proportion of individuals in the working age
population who are actively trying to start their own business or running their business that is less than 3 years
old.
16
Israel
17
Ireland
Note: Gross expenditure = business, government and higher education.
Slovak Republic
4.0
Poland
4.5
Turkey
United Kingdom
Northern Ireland
70.0
Hungary
North East
Wales
Scotland
Yorkshire and
the Humber
East Midlands
South West
West Midlands
North West
80.0
Italy
Spain
Czech Republic
Scotland
Portugal
Estonia
Luxembourg
Norway
United Kingdom
Source: OECD, Scottish Government
Canada
Netherlands
Belgium
Slovenia
Australia
France
Iceland
Austria
Germany
South East
London
East of England
Source: ONS
United States
Denmark
Japan
Sweden
Korea
Finland
Figure 13
Business Births per 10,000 Adult population,
UK regions 2002 and 2009
90.0
2002
2009
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
Figure 14
Total Gross Expenditure on R&D as a % of GDP,
OECD Coutnires (1999 and 2010)
5.0
1999
2010
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Source: OECD, Scottish Government
18
Poland
Slovak Republic
Turkey
3.0
Scotland
United Kingdom
London
Wales
Yorkshire and
the Humber
North East
West Midlands
Northern
Ireland
Scotland
East Midlands
South West
North West
South East
East of England
3.50
New Zealand
Italy
Hungary
Spain
Portugal
Estonia
Norway
Netherlands
Canada
Czech Republic
United Kingdom
Luxembourg
Ireland
Australia
Belgium
France
Slovenia
Iceland
Austria
Germany
United States
Denmark
Sweden
Japan
Finland
Korea
Israel
Figure 15
Total (Gross) Expenditure on R&D relative to GDP,
UK Regions 1999 and 2010 (%)
4.50
4.00
1999
2010
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Source: Scottish Government
Note: Gross expenditure = business, government and higher education.
Figure 16
Business Enterprise R&D relative to GDP,
OECD Countries 1999 and 2010 (%)
4.0
3.5
1999
2010
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Source: Eurostat, BIS
19
Poland
70
Hungary
UK
London
Wales
Yorkshire and
the Humber
Scotland
North East
West Midlands
Northern
Ireland
South West
East Midlands
North West
South East
East of England
2.50
Romania
Slovakia
Scotland
Spain
Netherlands
United Kingdom
Norway
France
Denmark
Finland
Italy
Sweden
Czech Republic
Austria
Ireland
Portugal
Belgium
Luxembourg
Germany
Figure 17
Business Enterprise R&D relative to GDP,
UK Regions 2001 and 2010 (%)
3.50
3.00
2001
2010
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Source: Scottish Government
Figure 18
Innovation Active Firms, OECD Countries 2004 and 2008 (%)
90
80
2004
2008
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Norway
Source: OECD Scottish Government
20
Austria
Turkey
Portugal
30
Italy
UK
Northern Ireland
Scotland
East Midlands
London
North West
South West
Wales
West Midlands
East of England
North East
Yorkshire and
The Humber
South East
62
Slovak Republic
Czech Republic
Germany
Mexico
Greece
France
Luxembourg
Belgium
Hungary
Spain
Ireland
Poland
Finland
Switzerland
Scotland
New Zealand
Korea
Sweden
Source: BIS
Japan
Canada
United Kingdom
Australia
Denmark
Iceland
Netherlands
United States
Figure 19
Innovation Active Firms, UK Regions 2004 and 2008
64
2004
2008
60
58
56
54
52
50
Figure 20
Graduates as a Proportion of Population (24-64 age group),
OECD Countries 1999 and 2009
40
35
1999
2009
25
20
15
10
5
0
21
Netherlands
Hungary
Germany
Poland
United Kingdom
North East
West Midlands
Northern Ireland
East Midlands
Yorkshire &
Humberside
North West
Wales
Eastern
Scotland
South West
South East
London
35.0%
Japan
Slovak Republic
Czech Republic
Slovenia
Scotland
Austria
Greece
Finland
Denmark
Portugal
United Kingdom
Source: OECD, GROS
Italy
Korea
Sweden
Belgium
France
Norway
Switzerland
United States
Canada
Iceland
New Zealand
Turkey
Mexico
Spain
Luxembourg
Australia
Ireland
Figure 21
Graduates as a proportion of Working Age Population,
UK Regions 1999 and 2011
45.0%
40.0%
1999
2011
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Source: Scottish Government/ Labour Force Survey
Figure 22
Population Growth, OECD Countries 2000-2010 (%)
20
15
10
5
0
-5
Source: OECD, ONS
22
Iceland
2.5
Mexico
Japan
Estonia
Poland
Slovak Republic
Germany
France
Portugal
Hungary
Israel
Netherlands
Austria
Finland
Czech Republic
United States
Greece
Denmark
New Zealand
East Midlands
South West
East
London
United Kingdom
North East
North West
Scotland
West Midlands
Wales
Yorkshire and
The Humber
South East
Northern Ireland
Source: ONS
Scotland
Belgium
Italy
Sweden
Canada
Norway
Switzerland
Slovenia
Spain
Australia
Luxembourg
Ireland
Figure 23
Population Growth, UK regions 1999-2010 (%)
10.00
9.00
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Figure 24
Net Migration as a Proportion of the Population,
OECD Countries 1999 and 2009
3.0
1999
2009
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
Korea
Source: OECD, Scottish Government
23
Greece
Canada
Italy
Finland
Austria
United Kingdom
London
Northern
Ireland
0.8
Slovenia
Luxembourg
Chile
Denmark
Wales
North West &
Merseryside
East Midlands
North East
South West
Scotland
South East
Yorkshire and
The Humber
East
West Midlands
Source: ONS
France
Norway
Portugal
United Kingdom
Sweden
Spain
Belgium
Ireland
Turkey
Japan
Switzerland
Germany
Slovak Republic
New Zealand
Estonia
Scotland
Netherlands
Israel
Australia
United States
Mexico
Hungary
Czech Republic
Poland
Iceland
Figure 25
Net Migration as a Proportion of the Population,
UK regions 1999 and 2009
1.0
1999
2009
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
Figure 26
Export Growth, OECD Countries 2008-2010 Annual Average (%)
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
24
United Kingdom
Northern Ireland
Wales
East Midlands
Scotland
Yorkshire and
the Humber
West Midlands
East of England
Source: BIS Regional Economic Performance Indicators
North West
North East
South East
London
South West
Figure 27
Annual Average Growth in Exports, UK Regions 2008-2010 (%)
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
-2.00