Download Permafrost

YKL REA Aquatics
Becky Shaftel, Leah Kenney,
and Timm Nawrocki
Aquatics in the REA
 Conservation elements
 Distribution mapping methods and results
 Conceptual models
 Management questions
Aquatic conservation elements
Coarse filters
• Streams and rivers
• Connected lakes
• Disconnected lakes
Fine filters
• Chinook salmon
• Chum salmon
• Sheefish
• Dolly Varden
• Northern pike
Photo: ADF&G
Photo: ADF&G
Streams and rivers
Methods: flowlines
from the USGS
National Hydrography
Dataset
Results:
Length = 454,000 km
Connected lakes
Methods:
waterbodies
connected to
flowlines in the
National Hydrography
Dataset
Results:
Count = 31,600 lakes
Area = 25,800 km2
Photo: USFWS
Disconnected lakes
Methods:
waterbodies not
connected to
flowlines in the
National Hydrography
Dataset
Results:
Count = 103,600 lakes
Area = 9,400 km2
Photo: USFWS
Chinook Salmon
Methods: Clipped
from the Anadromous
Waters Catalog event
feature class
Results:
AWC Life Stage
Designation
Spawning Habitat
Present or Rearing
Length
(km)
5,436
13,522
Photo: USFWS
Chum Salmon
Methods: Clipped
from the Anadromous
Waters Catalog event
feature class
Results:
AWC Life Stage
Designation
Spawning Habitat
Present or Rearing
Length
(km)
5,902
8,640
Photo: USFWS
Sheefish
Methods: Clipped
from the Anadromous
Waters Catalog event
feature class
Results:
AWC Life Stage
Designation
Spawning Habitat
Present
Length
(km)
117
6,036
Photo: USFWS
Fish Distribution Models
ADF&G AFFID
species
occurrence data
Process AFFID data
for use in models
GIS source data
Create stream
network and
landscape predictor
variables in GIS
Fish
distributions
Predict species
habitat across REA
study area
Classification tree
and random forest
models
Evaluate model
performance
Photo: USFWS
Stream Network
Used TauDEM to process DEM
1. Add in additional HUCs on boundary of study area that
flow into the study area
2. Fill pits
3. Calculate flow direction (D8 method)
4. Calculate contributing area
5. Create stream network based on curvature method and
drop analysis
Predictor Variables
Predictors of Fish Habitat
Elevation
Permafrost
Gradient
Slope over area ratio
Stream order
Watershed area
Average watershed annual
precipitation
Average watershed annual
temperature
Average watershed elevation
Average watershed slope over area
ratio
Average watershed slope
Percent permafrost cover in
watershed
Photo: USFWS
Percent lake cover in watershed
Process AFFID data
-
-
-
-
Select all presences by
fish in AFFID
Select absences from
projects in AFFID that
listed fish community
sampling as an objective
Resample data in areas of
high intensity to match
densities in other HUCs
Shift points along flow
direction grid until they
reached the stream
network
Extract all predictor
variables to each data
point for model
development
Classification Trees
Asterospicularia laurae
Classification Tree Analysis
Steps:
– Identify the groups
– Choose the variables
– Identify the split that
maximizes the
homogeneity of the
resulting groups
– Determine a stopping
point for the tree
– Prune the tree using
cross-validation
Shelf: Inner, Mid
Absent
0.97
(263)
Shelf: Outer
Location: Back, Flank
Absent
0.78
(64)
(De'Ath and Fabricious 2000)
Location: Front
Depth < 3m
Absent
0.56
(9)
Depth ≥ 3m
Present
0.81
(37)
Misclassification rates: Null = 15%, Model = 9%
Photo: USFWS
Random Forests
Creates many classification trees and combines predictions
from all of them:
- Start with bootstrapped samples of data
- Observations not included are called out-of-bag (OOB)
- Fit a classification tree to each bootstrap sample, for each
node, use a subset of the predictor variables.
- Determine the predicted class for each observation based
on majority vote of OOB predictions
- To determine variable importance, compare
misclassification rates for OOB observations using true and
randomly permuted data for each predictor
Run models in R
ct1<-mvpart(pres.f~.,data=fish.pred1[s1,],xv="1se")
rf1<-randomForest(pres.f~.,data=fish.pred1[s1,],ntree=999)
CT training CT validation RF training RF validation
1
0.271
0.327
0.248
0.264
2
0.273
0.27
0.262
0.226
3
0.265
0.264
0.24
0.245
4
0.271
0.358
0.238
0.233
5
0.271
0.264
0.251
0.252
6
0.283
0.352
0.257
0.239
7
0.292
0.321
0.249
0.258
8
0.214
0.302
0.246
0.226
9
0.244
0.252
0.265
0.214
Photo: USFWS
10
0.297
0.296
0.267
0.245
summary
0.2681
0.3006
0.2523
0.2402
Model Performance
0
1
Confusion Matrix
0
1
Error
313
96
23.5%
98
282
25.8%
Photo: USFWS
Dolly Varden
Results:
~ 32,000 km of predicted
summer habitat (restricted to
stream reaches > 1 km in
length)
Predictor
1
0
watershed
541 m
299 m
elevation
watershed slope
22%
10%
watershed
596 mm 521 mm
annual precip.
watershed
-1.36 C
-1.41 C
annual temp.
Watershed area
71 km2 1,665 km2
Photo: USFWS
Increased potential for establishment of invasive macrophytes and changing fire dynamics
Direct population decline
Permafrost
Reduction in juvenile fitness;
bioaccumulation in adults
Increase in ground flow;
increase in sedimentation
Reduction in age at maturity and shift in
spawning season
Fish species
Change Agents
Drivers
CE
General Effect
Habitat
Temporary increases in nutrient inputs; increase
sedimentatitation
Harvest
Reduction in habitat
Infrastructure
Increased toxicity
Contaminants
Fire
Mining
Habitat loss, changes in migration routes, increased
sedimentation
Increased contaminant sources
Change in
deposition rates
Precipitation
Changes in hydrology
Expanded ice-free season
Permafrost thaw
Temperature
Invasive
Macrophytes
Human Uses
Climate Change
Expanded ice-free season
Permafrost
Change Agents
Drivers
CE
General Effect
CE-Specific Effect
Increase groundwater flow
improves overwinter
habitat
Contaminants
Infrastructure
Harvest
Increased toxicity
Invasive
Macrophytes
Reduction in age at maturity and shift in
spawning season
Dolly Varden
Salvelinus malma
Habitat
Temporary increases in nutrient inputs
Human Uses
Elodea spp could reduce quality of foraging habitat
Direct destruction of habitat, hindrance of migration routes,
increased downstream turbidity and sedimentation
Climate Change
Direct population decline
Increased contaminant sources
Precipitation
Reduction in juvenile fitness;
bioaccumulation in adults
Temperature
Increased winter
precipitation may increase
overwintering habitat
Change in
deposition rates
Permafrost thaw
Increased potential for establishment of invasive macrophytes and changing fire dynamics
Fire
Mining
Expanded ice-free season
Permafrost
Change Agents
Drivers
CE
General Effect
CE-Specific Effect
Increase depth of active
layer will increase lake
drainage area
Infrastructure
Harvest
In creased toxicity
Contaminants
Invasive
Macrophytes
Reduction in age at maturity and shift in
spawning season
Northern Pike
Esox lucius
Habitat
Temporary increases in nutrient inputs
Human Uses
Elodea ssp could reduce quality of spawning habitat
Direct destruction of habitat, hindrance of migration routes,
increased downstream turbidity and sedimentation
Climate Change
Subsistence harvest pressures on
overwintering populations
Increased contaminant sources
Precipitation
Bioaccumulation of
mercury in adults
Temperature
Increased winter
precipitation may increase
overwintering habitat
Change in
deposition rates
Permafrost thaw
Increased potential for establishment of invasive macrophytes and changing fire dynamics
Fire
Mining
Expanded ice-free season
Sedimentation of gravelsubstrate will reduce
quality of spawning
habitat
Permafrost
Change Agents
Drivers
CE
General Effect
CE-Specific Effect
Infrastructure
Harvest
In creased toxicity
Contaminants
Invasive
Macrophytes
Mining
Sheefish
Stenodus leucichthys
Habitat
Sedimentation of gravel-substrate in streams will reduce quality of spawning habitat
Reduction in age at maturity and shift in
spawning season to later
Reduction in juvenile feeding habitat
Human Uses
Direct destruction of habitat, hindrance of migration routes,
increased downstream turbidity and sedimentation
Climate Change
Direct population decline and removal
of mature, healthy individuals
Increased contaminant sources
Precipitation
Reduction in juvenile fitness;
bioaccumulation in adults
Temperature
High winter flow may affect
spawning habitat
Change in
deposition rates
Permafrost thaw
Increased potential for establishment of invasive macrophytes and changing fire dynamics
Fire
Permafrost
Change Agents
Drivers
CE
General Effect
CE-Specific Effect
Increase in winter habitat
for juveniles
Precipitation
Increased contaminant sources
Increased toxicity
Contaminants
Harvest
Invasive
Macrophytes
Chinook Salmon
Oncorhynchus tshawytscha
Habitat
Sedimentation of gravel-substrate will reduce quality of spawning habitat;
Temporary increases in nutrient inputs could increase juvenile foraging
Reduction in age at maturity; earlier spawning
season; increased parasite infection
Reduction in spawning and rearing habitat
Human Uses
Habitat loss, changes in migration routes, increased
sedimentation
Climate Change
Direct population decline and removal of
mature, healthy individuals
Reduction in juvenile fitness
Change in
deposition rates
Temperature
Increase stream flow overwinter
reduce egg survival
Permafrost thaw
Expanded ice-free season
Increased potential for establishment of invasive macrophytes and changing fire dynamics
Fire
Mining
Infrastructure
Increased potential for establishment of invasive macrophytes and changing fire dynamics
Invasive
Macrophytes
Fire
Mining
Precipitation
Reduction in age at maturity; earlier spawning
season; increased egg incubation time
Chum Salmon
Change Agents
Drivers
CE
General Effect
CE-Specific Effect
Oncorhynchus keta
Habitat
Reduction in spawning habitat
Habitat loss, changes in migration routes,
increased sedimentation
Direct population decline and removal of
mature, healthy individuals
Increased stream discharge
could increase
sedimentation and scour
eggs
Increase stream flow overwintr reduce quality of
spawning habitat and egg survival
Permafrost
Infrastructure
Harvest
Permafrost thaw
Expanded ice-free season
Temperature
Sedimentation of gravel-substrate in streams will reduce quality of spawning habitat
Human Uses
Climate Change
Change Agents
Drivers
CE
Permafrost
Connected
Lakes
Invasive
Macrophytes
Infrastructure
Temporary increases in nutrient inputs ; postfire landslides and debris flows
Human Uses
Outcompete native aquatic and emergent vegetation
Climate Change
Direct destruction of lake habitat
Temperature
Lake drying in summer decreasing connectivity; expanded
ice-free season allow for early wildlife use (birds and fish);
changes in thermal regimes
Permafrost
thaw
Precipitation
Decrease in lake area; lake drainage;
increase in methane emissions
Lake area increase through increased precipitation; increased winter
habitat for aquatic species
Increased potential for establishment of invasive macrophytes and changing fire dynamics
Fire
Mining
Change Agents
Drivers
CE
Mining
Permafrost
Infrastructure
Disconnected
Lakes
Invasive
Macrophytes
Temporary increases in nutrient inputs; postfire landslides and debris
flows
Human Uses
Outcompete native aquatic and emergent vegetation; faster growing vegetation
overtaking lake area
Climate Change
Direct destruction of lake habitat
Temperature
Lake drying in summer decreasing lake area; expanded icefree season allow for early wildlife use (birds and fish);
changes in thermal regimes
Permafrost thaw
Precipitation
Decrease in lake area; lake drainage;
increase in methane emissions
Lake area increase through increased precipitation; increased winter
habitat for aquatic species
Increased potential for establishment of invasive macrophytes and changing fire dynamics
Fire
Change Agents
Drivers
CE
Permafrost
Streams
Invasive
Macrophytes
Mining
Infrastructure
Temporary increases in nutrient inputs; post fire landslides and debris flows; increased
channel disturbance; altered riparian vegetation and stream shade, temperature change
regimes
Human Uses
Outcompete native aquatic and emergent vegetation
Climate Change
Direct destruction of stream habitat, change in conductivity, reduced
flow
Temperature
Warming could increase extent of available habitats; lethal
temperature limits for fish and other aquatic organisms ;
change in thermal regimes
Permafrost thaw
Precipitation
Increased sedimentation rates
Altered hydrologies; increased channel disturbance from
flooding; increased discharge and sediment transport; increase in
winter precipitation will increase wildlife overwinter habitat
Increased potential for establishment of invasive macrophytes and changing fire dynamics
Fire
Management Questions
How, where, and when could Essential Fish
Habitat (EFH) be affected by predicted changes in
climate?
- Primarily a literature review. SNAP does not
currently have models predicting changes in
aquatic habitats, such as stream temperature or
hydrologic regime
Photo: USFWS
Management Questions
Where and how might
mineral resource
development affect
fishery habitat?
-
-
From BSWI RMP: field
validated information on
historic and current
mining sites and high,
medium, and low
mineral potential by
sections
Other options include
ARDF and permit data
Photo: USFWS
Review
Please review and provide comments:
- Distribution models for fish and habitats
- Conceptual models and text descriptions for fish
Not yet final:
- Northern pike distribution model
- Conceptual models and text descriptions for habitats
Contact: Rebecca Shaftel
[email protected], 907-786-4965
Photo: USFWS