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Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) [email protected] http://clasp.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2016 February 9, 2016 Class Information and News • Ctools site: CLIMATE_480_001_W16 – Record of course • Rood’s Class MediaWiki Site – http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action • A tumbler site to help me remember – http://openclimate.tumblr.com/ Resources and Recommended Reading • IPCC (2013) Working Group 1: Summary for Policy Makers • IPCC (2013) Working Group 1: Technical Summary • IPCC (2013) Working Group 2: Summary for Policy Makers • IPCC (2013) Working Group 2: Technical Summary • National Climate Assessment (2014) Resources and Recommended Reading • BAMS: State of the Climate – State of Climate 2009 • State of the Climate: Monthly Summary • Walther, Ecological Response, Nature, 2002 • McCarty, Ecological Consequences, Conservation Biology, 2001 • Rosenzweig, Attribution of Impacts, Nature, 2008 • Revkin DotEarth, Ocean Temperature • Rood Blog, “Just Temperature” Outline: Class 9, Winter 2016 • Climate variability and trends (Redux) • Trends in physical climate – Ocean – Ice – Rain – Temperature • Trends in impacts (most briefly, see IPCC WGII, and reference list) Modes of Climate Variability • Weather – single “events” – waves, vortices • There are modes of internal variability in the climate system which cause global changes. – El Niño – La Niña • What is El Niño – North Atlantic Oscillation • Climate Prediction Center: North Atlantic Oscillation – Annular Mode – Inter-decadal Tropical Atlantic – Pacific Decadal Oscillation Ocean Circulation The Thermohaline Circulation (THC) (Global, organized circulation in the ocean) (The “conveyer belt”, “rivers” within the ocean) Blue shading, low salt Where there is localized exchange of water between the surface and the deep ocean (convection) Green shading, high salt Warm, surface currents. Cold, bottom currents. In Class / Groups / Discussion • Thermohaline Circulation – Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation • In groups discuss Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation / Gulf Stream – How does it affect climate? – How does variability affect climate? • Consider: – Temperature, Ice Melting, Wind, Saltiness, What is a stable climate? LIQUID - ICE NOAA Paleoclimate Younger Dryas POSSIBLE EVIDENCE OF CHANGE IN OCEAN CIRCULATION WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? Abrupt Climate Change • Dynamic variability in the ocean (ocean-ice-landatmosphere interactions) • Most scenarios of abrupt climate change are related to a phase change in some way or another. Does the albedo change quickly? Is there a change in the fresh water in the ocean? Is there a release of gas stored in something that is frozen? • It is also possible to define rapid changes in ocean (land?) ecosystems, that leads to composition changes in the atmosphere. Biology – sensitive to temperature, water, salinity, ph, etc. Lamont-Doherty: Abrupt Climate Change Abrupt Climate Change (NRC) • Abrupt Climate Change (2013), National Research Council • Abrupt Climate Change (2002), National Research Council • Rood Summary Blog • Wunderground: Abrupt Climate Change In ad hoc groups Scientific Investigation OBSERVATIONS THEORY EXPERIMENT Problem Solving Knowledge Generation Reduction Disciplinary Unification Integration (perhaps not unique) What is science, the scientific method? • Elements of the scientific method – Observations of some phenomenon – Identification of patterns, relationships and the generation of suppositions, followed by hypotheses – In principle, hypotheses are testable: • Experiments: cause and effect • Prediction instead of experiments? – Development of constructs, theory, which follow from successful hypothesis. • Predict behavior, what does the next observation might look like? – Development of tests, experiments that challenge the hypotheses and predictions. • Validate or refute theory and elements from which the theory is constructed. In ad hoc groups • Group 1: Think about changes across the Earth system that you would expect to see in a warming climate. – Atmosphere-ocean-ice-land • Group 2: Think about climate change and the “built” environment, what sort of changes would you expect to be important in the next 50 years • Group 3: Think about climate change and the “biological” environment (natural and managed), what sort of changes would you expect to be important in the next 50 years Climate Variability and Trends Time Scales of Variability LONG SHORT Pacific Decadal Oscillation Arctic Oscillation 0 years 25 years El Niño / La Niña ? Abrupt Atlantic Meridional Overturning 50 years 75 years 100 years January 2011 Temperature Anomalies El Niño / La Niña Signal GISS Temperature 2002 1997-98 El Niño Roles of Uncertainty / Variability at Different Times Hawkins and Sutton, 2009 / Rood Lecture on Uncertainty Trends in Physical Climate Correlated behavior of different parameters Fig. 2.5. (State of Climate 2009) Time series from a range of indicators that would be expected to correlate strongly with the surface record. Note that stratospheric cooling is an expected consequence of greenhouse gas increases. A version of this figure with full references is available at www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-climate/ . • NOAA Web Resource on Ocean Heat Content • Levitus 2012 Paper on Ocean Heat Content • Abraham 2013 Paper on Ocean Heat Content and Sea Level Ocean Heat Content Ocean Heat and Sea Level Ice is Melting • Snow and Ice Data Center • State of the Cryosphere 95% of Earth’s glaciers are in retreat Muir Glacier, Alaska, in 1890 (top) and 2005 (bottom) Thanks to Paul Edwards Muir Glacier, Alaska, in 1880 (left) and 2005 (right). Muir Glacier, Alaska, in 1941 (left) and 2004 (right). Thanks to Paul Edwards Decline of Arctic Sea Ice • Movie of Arctic Sea Ice • NASA Sea Ice Collection • Increase of Antarctic Sea Ice Larsen Ice Shelf Collapse January 31, 2002 March 5, 2002 Changes in Moisture and Precipitation Precipitation Extreme Events in U.S. For example Groisman et al. or the National Climate Assessment Just Temperature Current Climate • Rood Blog “Just Temperature” • For surface air temperature for the entire globe, take a 100 year, 1900-1999, average of each month. Subtract the current month from that average. When was the last month below average? February 1985 Time series of February Winter 2014 • It was very cold in Michigan in Winter 2014. Global Map January 2014 Temperature Anomaly January 2014 in Perspective • U.S.: 53rd coolest, 5th driest • Global 4th Warmest January 2014: Global Temperature Role of El Niño (again) Global Map January 2014 Temperature Anomaly Eastern Pacific Eastern Pacific Eastern Pacific El Niño – La Niña El Niño – La Niña The Current Climate (Released Monthly) • Climate Monitoring at National Climatic Data Center. – http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html • State of the Climate: Global • Plant Hardiness - 2012 Trends in impacts (most briefly) Edges and Accumulation • “Edges” are places where we really might be able to see things definitively. What are the edges? – Ice (Phase transition) – Deserts – Seasons • Accumulation of heat Project Budburst • A community science activity collect observations of the onset of spring – Project Budburst • How to observe the onset of spring – National Phenology Network Project of Trees • A community science activity to collect observations on types of trees – Canadian Plant Hardiness Site • Paper (including yours truly) on how foresters think about climate change – McKenney et al. (2011) Interestingly significant news story Hardiness Map • Arbor Day Foundation Maps of Hardiness Zones • Plant Hardiness - 2012 Length of Growing Season From Ranga B. Myneni, Boston University Can we get a global perspective from satellites? • NDVI: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index – Looks at radiative budgets, measurements, and the absorption of photosynthetically active radiation, relative to the rest of the radiation. How would these changes be revealed? Changes in vegetation activity can be characterized through 1. changes in growing season 2. changes in “productivity” Increases in growing season delayed fall earlier spring Jan Jul Aug NDVI Dec Increases in Productiviy Increase Jan Jul Aug NDVI From Compton J. Tucker, NASA Goddard Dec From Kirsten de Beures Changes in the Amplitude of the Keeling Curve (Keeling et al, 1996) Amplitude has increased 40% in Alaska, Canada Amplitude has increased 20% in Hawaii The phase, start of the decrease, start of the growing season, has moved forward 7 days. Geographical extent of warming Osborn Spatial Extent of Warming Coherent and Convergent Evidence • There is evidence in both the physical climate system and ecosystems of systematic global warming. • This evidence shows correlated behavior through many systems. • Taken independently each piece could be challenged. • Taken together the evidence converges. – Consistent with human-related forcing Summary: Class 9, Winter 2016 • Climate variability and trends (Redux) – Internal modes of variability dominate uncertainty in short-term (decades) and at “smaller” spatial scales (continents) – Oceanic circulation critical in decadal variability and predictive skill Summary: Class 9, Winter 2016 • Trends in physical climate – Consistent message from ocean, ice, atmosphere, land – Apparent counterfactuals? Further investigation, are they counterfactual? • Trends in impacts: – IPCC WG II comprehensive summary – Seasons are changing, plants are changing, birds are changing, Outline: Class 9, Winter 2016 • Climate variability and trends (Redux) • Trends in physical climate – Ocean – Ice – Rain – Temperature • Trends in impacts (most briefly, see IPCC WGII, and reference list)