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Innovation and Strategies in Supply Chain Management David Simchi-Levi Professor of Engineering Systems Massachusetts Institute of Technology Tel: 617-253-6160 E-mail: [email protected] Outline of the Presentation Introduction Push-Pull Systems Supply Contracts ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Today’s Supply Chain Pitfalls • • • • • Long Lead Times Uncertain Demand Complex Product Offering Component Availability System Variation Over Time ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi The Bullwhip Effect and its Impact on the Supply Chain • Consider the order pattern of a single color television model sold by a large electronics manufacturer to one of its accounts, a national retailer. Figure 1. Order Stream Huang at el. (1996), Working paper, Philips Lab ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi The Bullwhip Effect and its Impact on the Supply Chain Figure 2. Point-of-sales Data-Original Figure 3. POS Data After Removing Promotions ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi The Bullwhip Effect and its Impact on the Supply Chain Figure 4. POS Data After Removing Promotion & Trend ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Higher Variability in Orders Placed by Computer Retailer to Manufacturer Than Actual Sales Lee, H, P. Padmanabhan and S. Wang (1997), Sloan Management Review ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Increasing Variability of Orders Up the Supply Chain Lee, H, P. Padmanabhan and S. Wang (1997), Sloan Management Review ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi We Conclude …. • Order Variability is amplified up the supply chain; upstream echelons face higher variability. • What you see is not what they face. ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi The Bullwhip Effect P&G Retailers Customers ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi What are the Causes…. • Promotional sales • Volume and Transportation Discounts • Inflated orders - IBM Aptiva orders increased by 2-3 times when retailers thought that IBM would be out of stock over Christmas - Same with Motorola’s Cellular phones ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi What are the Causes…. • Single retailer, single manufacturer. – Retailer observes customer demand, Dt. – Retailer orders qt from manufacturer. Dt Retailer qt L Manufacturer ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi What are the Causes…. • • • • • Promotional sales Volume and Transportation Discounts Inflated orders Demand Forecast Long cycle times ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Consequences…. • Increased safety stock • Reduced service level ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Consequences…. • Single retailer, single manufacturer. – Retailer observes customer demand, Dt. – Retailer orders qt from manufacturer. Dt Retailer qt L Manufacturer ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Consequences…. • Increased safety stock • Reduced service level • Inefficient allocation of resources • Increased transportation costs ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Multi-Stage Supply Chains Consider a multi-stage supply chain: – Stage i places order qi to stage i+1. – Li is lead time between stage i and i+1. qo=D Retailer Stage 1 q1 L1 Manufacturer Stage 2 q2 L2 Supplier Stage 3 ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi What are the Causes…. • • • • • • Promotional sales Volume and Transportation Discounts Inflated orders Demand Forecast Long cycle times Luck of centralized demand information ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Example: Automotive Supply Chain • Custom order takes 60-70 days • Many different products – High level of demand uncertainty • Dealers’ inventory does not capture demand accurately – GM estimates: “Research shows we lose 10% to 11% of sales because the car is not available” ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Supply Chain Strategies • Achieving Global Optimization • Managing Uncertainty – Risk Pooling – Risk Sharing ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Sequential Optimization vs. Global Optimization Sequential Optimization Procurement Planning Manufacturing Planning Distribution Planning Demand Planning Global Optimization Supply Contracts/Collaboration/Integration/DSS Procurement Planning Manufacturing Planning Distribution Planning Demand Planning Source: Duncan McFarlane ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi A new Supply Chain Paradigm • A shift from a Push System... – Production decisions are based on forecast • …to a Push-Pull System ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi From Make-to-Stock Model…. Suppliers Assembly Configuration ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Demand Forecast • The three principles of all forecasting techniques: – Forecasts are always wrong – The longer the forecast horizon the worst is the forecast – Aggregate forecasts are more accurate • Risk Pooling ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi A new Supply Chain Paradigm • A shift from a Push System... – Production decisions are based on forecast • …to a Push-Pull System ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Push-Pull Supply Chains The Supply Chain Time Line Customers Suppliers PUSH STRATEGY Low Uncertainty PULL STRATEGY High Uncertainty Push-Pull Boundary ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi A new Supply Chain Paradigm • A shift from a Push System... – Production decisions are based on forecast • …to a Push-Pull System – Parts inventory is replenished based on forecasts – Assembly is based on accurate customer demand ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi ….to Assemble-to-Order Model Suppliers Assembly Configuration ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Demand Forecast • The three principles of all forecasting techniques: – Forecasts are always wrong – The longer the forecast horizon the worst is the forecast – Aggregate forecasts are more accurate • Risk Pooling ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Business models in the Book Industry • From Push Systems... – Barnes and Noble • ...To Pull Systems – Amazon.com, 1996-1999 • And, finally to Push-Pull Systems – Amazon.com, 1999-present • 7 warehouses, 3M sq. ft., ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Direct-to-Consumer:Cost Trade-Off Cost ($ million) Cost Trade-Off for BuyPC.com $20 $18 $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 Total Cost Inventory Transportation Fixed Cost 0 5 10 Number of DC's 15 Business models in the Grocery Industry • From Push Systems... – Supermarket supply chain • ...To Pull Systems – Peapod, 1989-1999 • Stock outs 8% to 10% • And, finally to Push-Pull Systems – Peapod, 1999-present • Dedicated warehouses • Stock outs less than 2% ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Business models in the Grocery Industry • Key Challenges for e-grocer: – Transportation cost • Density of customers – Very short order cycle times • Less than 12 hours ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi e-Business in the Retail Industry • Brick-&-Mortar companies establish Virtual retail stores – Wal-Mart, K-Mart, Barnes and Noble • Use a hybrid approach in stocking – Fast moving/High volume products for local storage – Slow moving/Low volume products for on-line purchase • Channel Conflict Issues ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Matching Supply Chain Strategies with Products Demand uncertainty (C.V.) Pull H I II Computer IV Push III Delivery cost Unit price L L Pull H Economies of Scale Push ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Shifting the Push-Pull Boundary: A Case Study • Manufacturer of circuit boards and other high-tech products • Sells customized products with high value and short life cycles • Multi-stage BOM – e.g., copper & fiberglass circuit board enclosure processor • Case study concerns one of 27,000 SKUs ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi How to Read the Diagrams A Gray Box is a processing stage PART 2 DALLAS ($0.50) Number on the lane is the transit time 0 5 Number in the white box is the commitment time to the next stage 0 PART 1 DALLAS ($260) 2 30 15 PART 3 88 MONTGOMERY ($220) 15 Cost in the box is the value of the product Bins indicate safety stock levels- more Red means more safety stock, empty means no safety stock Number under the box is the processing time ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi x2 PART 2 DALLAS ($0.50) Safety Stock Cost = $74,100/yr 0 0 5 PART 4 MALAYSIA ($180) 7 PART 5 37 CHARLESTON ($12) PART 1 DALLAS ($260) 28 3 3 PART 7 DENVER ($2.50) 58 4 PART 6 RALEIGH ($3) 2 30 15 PART 3 88 MONTGOMERY ($220) 15 70 8 x2 Safety Stock Cost = $45,400/yr (39% savings) PART 2 DALLAS ($0.50) 5 5 PART 4 MALAYSIA ($180) 7 PART 5 37 CHARLESTON ($12) PART 1 DALLAS ($260) 28 3 3 PART 7 DENVER ($2.50) 58 4 PART 6 RALEIGH ($3) 8 0 2 PART 3 13 MONTGOMERY ($220) 15 32 ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi 15 30 Safety Stock Cost = $53,700/yr (28% savings, 50% reduction in LT) PART 2 DALLAS ($0.50) 0 5 PART 4 MALAYSIA ($180) 7 PART 5 37 CHARLESTON ($12) PART 1 DALLAS ($260) 28 3 3 PART 7 DENVER ($2.50) 58 4 PART 6 RALEIGH ($3) 0 2 PART 3 50 MONTGOMERY ($220) 15 32 8 ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi 15 15 Comparison of Performance Measures Scenario 1: Baseline 2: Optimization 3: Shorten Lead Time Safety Stock Holding Cost ($/yr) $74,100 $45,400 $53,700 Lead Time to Customer (days) 30 30 15 Cycle Time (days) 105 105 105 Inventory Turns (turns/yr) 1.2 1.4 1.3 ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi PART 31 40 SEA ($20) 6 PART 23 50 DAL ($30) PART 18 51 DAL ($35) 4 PART 38 NJ ($8) PART 32 10 NJ ($22) 8 PART 39 TAI ($15) 5 28 3 2 3 3 PART 41 PHI ($32) 6 1 PART 36 20 NJ ($40) 13 PART 42 PHI ($2) 3 3 PART 37 10 DAL ($8) 4 50 PART 19 61 DAL ($210) PART 12 62 DAL ($260) PART 4 65 DAL ($285) 1 6 3 PART 5 DAL ($3) PART 26 25 DAL ($80) 2 PART 34 49 WAS ($25) PART 35 NJ ($35) 1 2 PART 25 3 52 WAS ($75) PART 33 42 WAS ($30) 2 3 PART 3 50 DAL ($6) 6 9 35 PART 40 12 NZ ($22) 1 PART 2 55 DAL ($55) PART 24 16 NJ ($30) 2 8 PART 11 54 DAL ($40) 2 4 3 PART 27 NJ ($4) PART 13 24 MEX ($11) 1 8 PART 6 46 DAL ($18) 14 1 PART 1 30 DAL ($535) 4 PART 14 10 MEX ($4) PART 28 17 DAL ($12) 8 PART 7 21 DAL ($9) 3 7 PART 20 18 WAS ($42) PART 29 12 WAS ($40) 12 3 6 PART 21 35 41 NZ ($18) Safety Stock Cost = $95,000/yr PART 15 26 DAL ($60) 5 PART 16 81 DAL ($21) 5 PART 30 PHI ($6) 4 4 3 PART 22 23 DAL ($28) 16 PART 17 26 DAL ($30) PART 8 56 DAL ($65) 30 PART 9 82 DAL ($30) 1 PART 10 38 DAL ($35) 3 12 ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi PART 31 40 SEA ($20) 6 PART 23 21 DAL ($30) PART 18 22 DAL ($35) 4 PART 38 NJ ($8) PART 32 NJ ($22) 6 PART 39 TAI ($15) 5 28 3 2 3 6 1 PART 36 11 NJ ($40) 3 3 PART 37 DAL ($8) 4 PART 4 26 DAL ($285) PART 12 23 DAL ($260) 1 6 3 PART 5 DAL ($3) 2 PART 27 NJ ($4) 9 PART 13 24 MEX ($11) 1 8 PART 6 26 DAL ($18) 14 PART 1 30 DAL ($535) 4 PART 14 10 MEX ($4) PART 28 16 DAL ($12) 8 PART 7 21 DAL ($9) 3 PART 20 18 WAS ($42) PART 29 12 WAS ($40) 12 3 6 PART 21 35 41 NZ ($18) Safety Stock Cost = $36,600/yr (62% savings) PART 30 PHI ($6) 4 4 3 7 13 PART 42 PHI ($2) PART 19 22 DAL ($210) 1 3 PART 41 PHI ($32) 50 PART 26 16 DAL ($80) 2 PART 34 10 WAS ($25) PART 35 NJ ($35) 1 2 PART 25 13 WAS ($75) 3 PART 33 10 WAS ($30) 2 3 PART 3 26 DAL ($6) 6 9 35 PART 40 12 NZ ($22) 1 PART 2 26 DAL ($55) PART 24 14 NJ ($30) 8 2 8 PART 11 25 DAL ($40) PART 15 26 DAL ($60) 5 PART 16 25 DAL ($21) 5 4 3 PART 22 11 DAL ($28) 16 PART 17 14 DAL ($30) PART 8 26 DAL ($65) 30 PART 9 26 DAL ($30) 1 PART 10 26 DAL ($35) 3 12 ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Comparison of Performance Measures Scenario 1: Baseline 2: Optimization Safety Stock Holding Cost ($/yr) $95,000 $36,600 Lead Time to Customer (days) 30 30 Cycle Time (days) 86 86 Inventory Turns (turns/yr) 1.5 1.8 ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Safety Stock vs. Quoted Lead Time Safety Stock Cost vs. Quoted Lead Time $100,000 For a given lead-time, the optimized supply chain provides reduced costs $90,000 Safety Stock Cost ($/year) $80,000 $70,000 For a given cost, the optimized supply chain provides better lead-times $60,000 $50,000 Baseline Cost Optimized Cost $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 0 20 40 60 80 100 ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Lead Time Quoted to Customer (days) Outline of the Presentation Introduction Push-Pull Systems Supply Contracts ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Supply Contracts • Fashion items – short life cycles – High product variety – One production opportunity – Simple supply chain structure – High demand uncertainty ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Supply Contracts Fixed Production Cost =$100,000 Variable Production Cost=$35 Wholesale Price =$80 Selling Price=$125 Salvage Value=$20 Manufacturer Manufacturer DC Retail DC Stores ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Demand Scenarios 18 00 0 16 00 0 14 00 0 12 00 0 10 00 0 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 80 00 Probability Demand Scenarios Sales ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Summary of Retailer Information • • • • Wholesale cost per unit (C): $80 Selling price per unit (S): $125 Salvage value per unit (V): $20 Average demand = 13,000 units • Should the retailer order more than average demand, less than average demand or exactly average demand? ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Scenario Analysis • Scenario One: – Suppose you make 12,000 jackets and demand ends up being 13,000 jackets. – Profit = 125(12,000) - 80(12,000) = $540,000 • Scenario Two: – Suppose you make 12,000 jackets and demand ends up being 11,000 jackets. – Profit = 125(11,000) - 80(12,000) + 20(1000) = $435,000 ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Distributor Expected Profit Expected Profit 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 Order Quantity ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Distributor Expected Profit Expected Profit 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 Order Quantity ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Supply Contracts (cont.) • Distributor optimal order quantity is 12,000 units • Distributor expected profit is $470,000 • Manufacturer profit is $440,000 • Supply Chain Profit is $910,000 –IS there anything that the distributor and manufacturer can do to increase the profit of both? ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Supply Contracts Fixed Production Cost =$100,000 Variable Production Cost=$35 Wholesale Price =$80 Selling Price=$125 Salvage Value=$20 Manufacturer Manufacturer DC Retail DC Stores ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Retailer Profit (Buy Back=$55) Retailer Profit 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 Order Quantity ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Retailer Profit (Buy Back=$55) Retailer Profit 600,000 $513,800 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 Order Quantity ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Manufacturer Profit (Buy Back=$55) 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 60 00 70 00 80 00 90 00 10 00 0 11 00 0 12 00 0 13 00 0 14 00 0 15 00 0 16 00 0 17 00 0 18 00 0 Manufacturer Profit 600,000 Production Quantity ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Manufacturer Profit (Buy Back=$55) 500,000 $471,900 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 60 00 70 00 80 00 90 00 10 00 0 11 00 0 12 00 0 13 00 0 14 00 0 15 00 0 16 00 0 17 00 0 18 00 0 Manufacturer Profit 600,000 Production Quantity ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Supply Contracts Fixed Production Cost =$100,000 Variable Production Cost=$35 Wholesale Price =$80 Selling Price=$125 Salvage Value=$20 Manufacturer Manufacturer DC Retail DC Stores ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Retailer Profit (Wholesale Price $70, RS 15%) 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 60 00 70 00 80 00 90 00 10 00 0 11 00 0 12 00 0 13 00 0 14 00 0 15 00 0 16 00 0 17 00 0 18 00 0 Retailer Profit 600,000 Order Quantity ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Retailer Profit (Wholesale Price $70, RS 15%) $504,325 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 60 00 70 00 80 00 90 00 10 00 0 11 00 0 12 00 0 13 00 0 14 00 0 15 00 0 16 00 0 17 00 0 18 00 0 Retailer Profit 600,000 Order Quantity ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Manufacturer Profit (Wholesale Price $70, RS 15%) 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 60 00 70 00 80 00 90 00 10 00 0 11 00 0 12 00 0 13 00 0 14 00 0 15 00 0 16 00 0 17 00 0 18 00 0 Manufacturer Profit 700,000 Production Quantity ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Manufacturer Profit (Wholesale Price $70, RS 15%) 600,000 500,000 $481,375 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 60 00 70 00 80 00 90 00 10 00 0 11 00 0 12 00 0 13 00 0 14 00 0 15 00 0 16 00 0 17 00 0 18 00 0 Manufacturer Profit 700,000 Production Quantity ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Supply Contracts Strategy Sequential Optimization Buyback Revenue Sharing Retailer Manufacturer 470,700 440,000 513,800 471,900 504,325 481,375 ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Total 910,700 985,700 985,700 Supply Contracts Fixed Production Cost =$100,000 Variable Production Cost=$35 Wholesale Price =$80 Selling Price=$125 Salvage Value=$20 Manufacturer Manufacturer DC Retail DC Stores ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Supply Chain Profit 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 60 00 70 00 80 00 90 00 10 00 0 11 00 0 12 00 0 13 00 0 14 00 0 15 00 0 16 00 0 17 00 0 18 00 0 Supply Chain Profit 1,200,000 Production Quantity ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Supply Chain Profit $1,014,500 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 60 00 70 00 80 00 90 00 10 00 0 11 00 0 12 00 0 13 00 0 14 00 0 15 00 0 16 00 0 17 00 0 18 00 0 Supply Chain Profit 1,200,000 Production Quantity ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Supply Contracts Strategy Sequential Optimization Buyback Revenue Sharing Global Optimization Retailer Manufacturer 470,700 440,000 513,800 471,900 504,325 481,375 Total 910,700 985,700 985,700 1,014,500 ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Supply Contracts: Key Insights • Effective supply contracts allow supply chain partners to replace sequential optimization by global optimization • Buy Back and Revenue Sharing contracts achieve this objective through risk sharing ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Supply Contracts: Case Study • Example: Demand for a movie newly released video cassette typically starts high and decreases rapidly – Peak demand last about 10 weeks • Blockbuster purchases a copy from a studio for $65 and rent for $3 – Hence, retailer must rent the tape at least 22 times before earning profit • Retailers cannot justify purchasing enough to cover the peak demand – In 1998, 20% of surveyed customers reported that they could not rent the movie they wanted ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Supply Contracts: Case Study • Starting in 1998 Blockbuster entered a revenue sharing agreement with the major studios – Studio charges $8 per copy – Blockbuster pays 30-45% of its rental income • Even if Blockbuster keeps only half of the rental income, the breakeven point is 6 rental per copy • The impact of revenue sharing on Blockbuster was dramatic – Rentals increased by 75% in test markets – Market share increased from 25% to 31% (The 2nd largest retailer, Hollywood Entertainment Corp has 5% market share) ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi What are the drawbacks of RS? • Administrative Cost – Lawsuit brought by three independent video retailers who complained that they had been excluded from receiving the benefits of revenue sharing was dismissed (June 2002) – The Walt Disney Company has sued Blockbuster accusing them of cheating its video unit of approximately $120 million under a four year revenue sharing agreement (January 2003) • Impact on sales effort – Retailers have incentive to push products with higher profit margins – Automotive industry: automobile sales depends on retail effort ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi What are the drawbacks of RS? • Retailer may carry substitute or complementary products from other suppliers – One supplier offers revenue sharing while the other does not • Substitute products: retail will push the product with high margin • Complementary products: retailer may discount the product offered under revenue sharing to motivate sales of the other product ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi Other Contracts • Quantity Flexibility Contracts – Supplier provides full refund for returned items as long as the number of returns is no larger than a certain quantity • Sales Rebate Contracts – Supplier provides direct incentive for the retailer to increase sales by means of a rebate paid by the supplier for any item sold above a certain quantity ©Copyright 2004 D. Simchi-Levi